Estimates of aerosol radiative forcing from the MACC re-analysis

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) provides an aerosol re-analysis starting from year 2003 for the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The re-analysis assimilates total aerosol optical depth retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to correct for model departures from observed aerosols. The reanalysis therefore combines satellite retrievals with the full spatial coverage of a numerical model. Re-analysed products are used here to estimate the shortwave direct and first indirect radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols over the period 2003–2010, using methods previously applied to satellite retrievals of aerosols and clouds. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky direct radiative forcing is −0.7±0.3Wm−2. The standard deviation is obtained by a Monte-Carlo analysis of uncertainties, which accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, aerosol absorption, and cloudy-sky effects. Further accounting for differences between the present-day natural and pre-industrial aerosols provides a direct radiative forcing estimate of −0.4±0.3Wm−2. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky first indirect radiative forcing is −0.6±0.4Wm−2. Its standard deviation accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, and in cloud albedo and cloud droplet number concentration susceptibilities to aerosol changes. The distribution of first indirect radiative forcing is asymmetric and is bounded by −0.1 and −2.0Wm−2. In order to decrease uncertainty ranges, better observational constraints on aerosol absorption and sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentrations to aerosol changes are required.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment Part II: impact of spatial heterogeneity of the surface

The centre of cities, characterised by spatial and temporal complexity, are challenging environments for micrometeorological research. This paper considers the impact of sensor location and heterogeneity of the urban surface on flux observations in the dense city centre of London, UK. Data gathered at two sites in close vicinity, but with different measurement heights, were analysed to investigate the influence of source area characteristics on long-term radiation and turbulent heat fluxes. Combining consideration of diffuse radiation and effects of specular reflections, the non-Lambertian urban surface is found to impact the measurements of surface albedo. Comparisons of observations from the two sites reveal that turbulent heat fluxes are similar under some flow conditions. However, they mostly observe processes at different scales due to their differing measurement heights, highlighting the critical impact of siting sensors in urban areas. A detailed source area analysis is presented to investigate the surface controls influencing the energy exchanges at the different scales

Evaluation of seven European aerosol optical depth retrieval algorithms for climate analysis

Satellite data are increasingly used to provide observation-based estimates of the effects of aerosols on climate. The Aerosol-cci project, part of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (CCI), was designed to provide essential climate variables for aerosols from satellite data. Eight algorithms, developed for the retrieval of aerosol properties using data from AATSR (4), MERIS (3) and POLDER, were evaluated to determine their suitability for climate studies. The primary result from each of these algorithms is the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at several wavelengths, together with the Ångström exponent (AE) which describes the spectral variation of the AOD for a given wavelength pair. Other aerosol parameters which are possibly retrieved from satellite observations are not considered in this paper. The AOD and AE (AE only for Level 2) were evaluated against independent collocated observations from the ground-based AERONET sun photometer network and against “reference” satellite data provided by MODIS and MISR. Tools used for the evaluation were developed for daily products as produced by the retrieval with a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2 (Level 2) and daily or monthly aggregates (Level 3). These tools include statistics for L2 and L3 products compared with AERONET, as well as scoring based on spatial and temporal correlations. In this paper we describe their use in a round robin (RR) evaluation of four months of data, one month for each season in 2008. The amount of data was restricted to only four months because of the large effort made to improve the algorithms, and to evaluate the improvement and current status, before larger data sets will be processed. Evaluation criteria are discussed. Results presented show the current status of the European aerosol algorithms in comparison to both AERONET and MODIS and MISR data. The comparison leads to a preliminary conclusion that the scores are similar, including those for the references, but the coverage of AATSR needs to be enhanced and further improvements are possible for most algorithms. None of the algorithms, including the references, outperforms all others everywhere. AATSR data can be used for the retrieval of AOD and AE over land and ocean. PARASOL and one of the MERIS algorithms have been evaluated over ocean only and both algorithms provide good results.

Methods for the modulation and analysis of NF-κB-dependent adult neurogenesis

The hippocampus plays a pivotal role in the formation and consolidation of episodic memories, and in spatial orientation. Historically, the adult hippocampus has been viewed as a very static anatomical region of the mammalian brain. However, recent findings have demonstrated that the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus is an area of tremendous plasticity in adults, involving not only modifications of existing neuronal circuits, but also adult neurogenesis. This plasticity is regulated by complex transcriptional networks, in which the transcription factor NF-κB plays a prominent role. To study and manipulate adult neurogenesis, a transgenic mouse model for forebrain-specific neuronal inhibition of NF-κB activity can be used. In this study, methods are described for the analysis of NF-κB-dependent neurogenesis, including its structural aspects, neuronal apoptosis and progenitor proliferation, and cognitive significance, which was specifically assessed via a dentate gyrus (DG)-dependent behavioral test, the spatial pattern separation-Barnes maze (SPS-BM). The SPS-BM protocol could be simply adapted for use with other transgenic animal models designed to assess the influence of particular genes on adult hippocampal neurogenesis. Furthermore, SPS-BM could be used in other experimental settings aimed at investigating and manipulating DG-dependent learning, for example, using pharmacological agents.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Spatial regulation and international differences in housebuilding industries

Housebuilding firms vary across the world in size and in the scope of their activities. This variety may seem surprising in an industry with open technologies and ease of entry. While market and technological factors may go some way to explain such differences, much of the causes of variation lie in dissimilarities in regulatory and institutional frameworks. These themes are explored through a comparative analysis of the structure of the residential development industry in Australia, the UK and the USA and in analysis of firm size hierarchies. The firm concentration ratio is much higher in the UK than the other two countries and the reasons may lie in the geography of the country but also in the peculiarities of its planning system.

Distribution of lipids in the grain of wheat (cv Hereward) determined by lipidomic analysis of milling and pearling fractions

Lipidomic analyses of milling and pearling fractions from wheat grain were carried out to determine differences in composition which could relate to the spatial distribution of lipids in the grain. Free fatty acids and triacylglycerols were major components in all fractions, but the relative contents of polar lipids varied, particularly lysophosphatidyl choline and digalactosyldiglyceride, which were enriched in flour fractions. By contrast, minor phospholipids were enriched in bran and offal fractions. The most abundant fatty acids in the analysed acyl lipids were C16:0 and C18:2 and their combinations, including C36:4 and C34:2. Phospholipids and galactolipids have been reported to have beneficial properties for bread making, while free fatty acids and triacylglycerols are considered detrimental. The subtle differences in the compositions of fractions determined in the present study could therefore underpin the production of flour fractions with optimised compositions for different end uses.

Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis

This study aims at the determination of a Fram Strait cyclone track and of the cyclone’s impact on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration. A 24 h period on 13–14 March 2002 framed by two RADARSAT images is analyzed. Data are included from autonomous ice buoys, a research vessel, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and QuikSCAT satellite, and the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. During this 24 h period the cyclone moved northward along the western ice edge in the Fram Strait, crossed the northern ice edge, made a left-turn loop with 150 km diameter over the sea ice, and returned to the northern ice edge. The ECMWF analysis places the cyclone track 100 km too far west over the sea ice, a deviation which is too large for representative sea ice simulations. On the east side of the northward moving cyclone, the ice edge was pushed northward by 55 km because of strong winds. On the rear side, the ice edge advanced toward the open water but by a smaller distance because of weaker winds there. The ice drift pattern as calculated from the ice buoys and the two RADARSAT images is cyclonically curved around the center of the cyclone loop. Ice drift divergence shows a spatial pattern with divergence in the loop center and a zone of convergence around. Ice concentration changes as retrieved from SSM/I data follow the divergence pattern such that sea ice concentration increased in areas of divergence and decreased in areas of convergence.

Improvement and sensitivity analysis of thermal thin-ice thickness retrievals

Considering the sea ice decline in the Arctic during the last decades, polynyas are of high research interest since these features are core areas of new ice formation. The determination of ice formation requires accurate retrieval of polynya area and thin-ice thickness (TIT) distribution within the polynya.We use an established energy balance model to derive TITs with MODIS ice surface temperatures (Ts) and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II in the Laptev Sea for two winter seasons. Improvements of the algorithm mainly concern the implementation of an iterative approach to calculate the atmospheric flux components taking the atmospheric stratification into account. Furthermore, a sensitivity study is performed to analyze the errors of the ice thickness. The results are the following: 1) 2-m air temperatures (Ta) and Ts have the highest impact on the retrieved ice thickness; 2) an overestimation of Ta yields smaller ice thickness errors as an underestimation of Ta; 3) NCEP Ta shows often a warm bias; and 4) the mean absolute error for ice thicknesses up to 20 cm is ±4.7 cm. Based on these results, we conclude that, despite the shortcomings of the NCEP data (coarse spatial resolution and no polynyas), this data set is appropriate in combination with MODIS Ts for the retrieval of TITs up to 20 cm in the Laptev Sea region. The TIT algorithm can be applied to other polynya regions and to past and future time periods. Our TIT product is a valuable data set for verification of other model and remote sensing ice thickness data.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

Multivariate analysis of the energy cycle of the South American rainy season

The South American (SA) rainy season is studied in this paper through the application of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a SA gridded precipitation analysis and to the components of Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. The EOF analysis leads to the identification of patterns of the rainy season and the associated mechanisms in terms of their energetics. The first combined EOF represents the northwest-southeast dipole of the precipitation between South and Central America, the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The second combined EOF represents a synoptic pattern associated with the SACZ (South Atlantic convergence zone) and the third EOF is in spatial quadrature to the second EOF. The phase relationship of the EOFs, as computed from the principal components (PCs), suggests a nonlinear transition from the SACZ to the fully developed SAMS mode by November and between both components describing the SACZ by September-October (the rainy season onset). According to the LEC, the first mode is dominated by the eddy generation term at its maximum, the second by both baroclinic and eddy generation terms and the third by barotropic instability previous to the connection to the second mode by September-October. The predominance of the different LEC components at each phase of the SAMS can be used as an indicator of the onset of the rainy season in terms of physical processes, while the existence of the outstanding spectral peaks in the time dependence of the EOFs at the intraseasonal time scale could be used for monitoring purposes. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

A new species of Lauromacromia (Odonata: Corduliidae) from Southeastern Brazil, with a cladistic analysis of the genus and comments on Neotropical dragonfly biogeography

Lauromacromia melanica sp. nov. from Conceicao da Barra municipality, Espirito Santo State, Brazil, is described and illustrated based on two males (both in MNRJ n degrees 135). The new species is similar to L. picinguaba differing from it mainly by the absence of pale spots on S3-6 and by the ellipsoid shape of metepisternal pale stripe. A key for males of all species of the genus is provided. A cladistic analysis encompassing 43 external morphological male characters carried out in two distinct procedures, the first with all characters unordered and the second with two or three state characters ordered. The unordered analysis generated only one most-parsimonious tree (66 steps of length, CI = 0.69, RI = 0.62). The hypothesis of monophyly of Lauromacromia is supported and includes three groups, one formed by the Atlantic Forest species (L. melanica sp. nov. + L. picinguaba), and another by the Cerrado species (L. flaviae + (L. bedei + L. luismoojeni)), and L. dubitalis, positioned in polytomy with these two groups. The ordered analysis also generated only one most-parsimonious tree (68 steps of length, CI = 0.70, RI = 0.67), which maintained the monophyly of Lauromacromia but L. dubitalis positioned basally as sister-group to the Atlantic Forest + Cerrado species groups. The geographic distribution of Lauromacromia is updated with a new record of L. luismoojeni based on one adult male (Brazil: Mato Grosso do Sul State) and probable first Brazilian records for L. dubitalis (Amazonas and Para States) based on two larvae. A vicariance hypothesis is proposed to explain spatial evolution of Lauromacromia, and based on current biogeographical classifications we consider Gomphomacromia and Rialla apart from Neotropical biota. Some aspects of biology and ecology of Lauromacromia are also discussed.

A psychophysical and computational analysis of the spatio-temporal mechanisms underlying the flash-lag effect

Several accounts put forth to explain the flash-lag effect (FLE) rely mainly on either spatial or temporal mechanisms. Here we investigated the relationship between these mechanisms by psychophysical and theoretical approaches. In a first experiment we assessed the magnitudes of the FLE and temporal-order judgments performed under identical visual stimulation. The results were interpreted by means of simulations of an artificial neural network, that wits also employed to make predictions concerning the F LE. The model predicted that a spatio-temporal mislocalisation would emerge from two, continuous and abrupt-onset, moving stimuli. Additionally, a straightforward prediction of the model revealed that the magnitude of this mislocalisation should be task-dependent, increasing when the use of the abrupt-onset moving stimulus switches from a temporal marker only to both temporal and spatial markers. Our findings confirmed the model`s predictions and point to an indissoluble interplay between spatial facilitation and processing delays in the FLE.

Comparative phylogeography of Trypanosoma cruzi TCIIc: New hosts, association with terrestrial ecotopes, and spatial clustering

We characterized 28 new isolates of Trypanosoma cruzi IIc (TCIIc) of mammals and triatomines from Northern to Southern Brazil, confirming the widespread distribution of this lineage. Phylogenetic analyses using cytochrome b and SSU rDNA sequences clearly separated TCIIc from TCIIa according to terrestrial and arboreal ecotopes of their preferential mammalian hosts and vectors. TCIIc was more closely related to TCIId/e, followed by TCIIa, and separated by large distances from TCIIb and TCI. Despite being indistinguishable by traditional genotyping and generally being assigned to Z3, we provide evidence that TCIIa from South America and TCIIa from North America correspond to independent lineages that circulate in distinct hosts and ecological niches. Armadillos, terrestrial didelphids and rodents, and domestic dogs were found infected by TCIIc in Brazil. We believe that, in Brazil, this is the first description of TCIIc from rodents and domestic dogs. Terrestrial triatomines of genera Panstrongylus and Triatoma were confirmed as vectors of TCIIc. Together, habitat, mammalian host and vector association corroborated the link between TCIIc and terrestrial transmission cycles/ecological niches. Analysis of ITS1 rDNA sequences disclosed clusters of TCIIc isolates in accordance with their geographic origin, independent of their host species. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human toxocariasis in rural Brazilian Amazonia: Seroprevalence, risk factors, and spatial distribution

This population-based cross-sectional study of 403 rural settlers in Brazilian Amazonia revealed an overall rate of IgG seropositivity to Toxocara canis excretory-secretory larval antigen of 26.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.5-31.4%). Multilevel logistic regression analysis identified current infection with hookworm (odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% CI, 1.11-4.86) and residence in the most recently occupied sectors of the settlement (OR, 1.81.; 95%CI, 1.3-2.52) as significant risk factors for Toxocara seropositivity; age > 14 years (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.73) and the presence of cats in the household (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.32-1.02) appeared to be protective. Two significant high-prevalence clusters were detected in the area, together comprising 38.9% of the seropositive subjects; households in the clusters had slightly lower socioeconomic status and were less likely to have cats as pets. The obstacles for controlling human toxocariasis in this and other tropical rural settings are discussed.