BME-based uncertainty assessment of the Chernobyl fallout

The vast territories that have been radioactively contaminated during the 1986 Chernobyl accident provide a substantial data set of radioactive monitoring data, which can be used for the verification and testing of the different spatial estimation (prediction) methods involved in risk assessment studies. Using the Chernobyl data set for such a purpose is motivated by its heterogeneous spatial structure (the data are characterized by large-scale correlations, short-scale variability, spotty features, etc.). The present work is concerned with the application of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method to estimate the extent and the magnitude of the radioactive soil contamination by 137Cs due to the Chernobyl fallout. The powerful BME method allows rigorous incorporation of a wide variety of knowledge bases into the spatial estimation procedure leading to informative contamination maps. Exact measurements (?hard? data) are combined with secondary information on local uncertainties (treated as ?soft? data) to generate science-based uncertainty assessment of soil contamination estimates at unsampled locations. BME describes uncertainty in terms of the posterior probability distributions generated across space, whereas no assumption about the underlying distribution is made and non-linear estimators are automatically incorporated. Traditional estimation variances based on the assumption of an underlying Gaussian distribution (analogous, e.g., to the kriging variance) can be derived as a special case of the BME uncertainty analysis. The BME estimates obtained using hard and soft data are compared with the BME estimates obtained using only hard data. The comparison involves both the accuracy of the estimation maps using the exact data and the assessment of the associated uncertainty using repeated measurements. Furthermore, a comparison of the spatial estimation accuracy obtained by the two methods was carried out using a validation data set of hard data. Finally, a separate uncertainty analysis was conducted that evaluated the ability of the posterior probabilities to reproduce the distribution of the raw repeated measurements available in certain populated sites. The analysis provides an illustration of the improvement in mapping accuracy obtained by adding soft data to the existing hard data and, in general, demonstrates that the BME method performs well both in terms of estimation accuracy as well as in terms estimation error assessment, which are both useful features for the Chernobyl fallout study.

Prevalence of obesity and overweight and associated nutritional factors in a population-based Swiss sample: an opportunity to analyze the impact of three different European cultural roots.

PURPOSE: Obesity represents a growing public health concern worldwide. The latest data in Switzerland rely on self-reported body mass index (BMI), leading to underestimation of prevalence. We reassessed the prevalence of obesity and overweight in a sample of the Swiss population using measured BMI and waist circumference (WC) and explored the association with nutritional factors and living in different linguistic-cultural regions. METHODS: Data of 1,505 participants of a cross-sectional population-based survey in the three linguistic regions of Switzerland were analyzed. BMI and WC were measured, and a 24-h urine collection was performed to evaluate dietary sodium, potassium and protein intake. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight, obesity and abdominal obesity was 32.2, 14.2 and 33.6 %, respectively. Significant differences were observed in the regional distribution, with a lower prevalence in the Italian-speaking population. Low educational level, current smoking, scarce physical activity and being migrant were associated with an higher prevalence of obesity. Sodium, potassium and protein intake increased significantly across BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and overweight affect almost half of the Swiss adolescents and adults, and the prevalence appears to increase. Using BMI and WC to define obesity led to different prevalences. Differences were furthermore observed across Swiss linguistic-cultural regions, despite a common socio-economic and governmental framework. We found a positive association between obesity and salt intake, with a potential deleterious synergistic effect on cardiovascular risk.

Long-term follow-up of European APL 2000 trial, evaluating the role of cytarabine combined with ATRA and Daunorubicin in the treatment of nonelderly APL patients.

All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) combined to anthracycline-based chemotherapy is the reference treatment of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). Whereas, in high-risk patients, cytarabine (AraC) is often considered useful in combination with anthracycline to prevent relapse, its usefulness in standard-risk APL is uncertain. In APL 2000 trial, patients with standard-risk APL [i.e., with baseline white blood cell (WBC) count <10,000/mm(3) ] were randomized between treatment with ATRA with Daunorubicin (DNR) and AraC (AraC group) and ATRA with DNR but without AraC (no AraC group). All patients subsequently received combined maintenance treatment. The trial had been prematurely terminated due to significantly more relapses in the no AraC group (J Clin Oncol, (24) 2006, 5703-10), but follow-up was still relatively short. With long-term follow-up (median 103 months), the 7-year cumulative incidence of relapses was 28.6% in the no AraC group, compared to 12.9% in the AraC group (P = 0.0065). In standard-risk APL, at least when the anthracycline used is DNR, avoiding AraC may lead to an increased risk of relapse suggesting that the need for AraC is regimen-dependent.

Trabecular bone score: a noninvasive analytical method based upon the DXA image.

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural metric that can be extracted from the two-dimensional lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image. TBS is related to bone microarchitecture and provides skeletal information that is not captured from the standard bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. Based on experimental variograms of the projected DXA image, TBS has the potential to discern differences between DXA scans that show similar BMD measurements. An elevated TBS value correlates with better skeletal microstructure; a low TBS value correlates with weaker skeletal microstructure. Lumbar spine TBS has been evaluated in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. The following conclusions are based upon publications reviewed in this article: 1) TBS gives lower values in postmenopausal women and in men with previous fragility fractures than their nonfractured counterparts; 2) TBS is complementary to data available by lumbar spine DXA measurements; 3) TBS results are lower in women who have sustained a fragility fracture but in whom DXA does not indicate osteoporosis or even osteopenia; 4) TBS predicts fracture risk as well as lumbar spine BMD measurements in postmenopausal women; 5) efficacious therapies for osteoporosis differ in the extent to which they influence the TBS; 6) TBS is associated with fracture risk in individuals with conditions related to reduced bone mass or bone quality. Based on these data, lumbar spine TBS holds promise as an emerging technology that could well become a valuable clinical tool in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and in fracture risk assessment.

Who is at low risk for cardiovascular disease? An assessment of different definitions

Background: There is little information regarding the determinants and trends of the prevalence of low cardiovascular risk factor (RF) profile in the general population. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and trends of low RF profile in the Swiss population according to different definitions. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional studies conducted in 1984-6 (N=3300), 1988-9 (N=3331), 1992-3 (N=3133) and 2003-6 (N=6170) and restricted to age group 35-75 years. Seven different definitions of low RF profile were used to assess determinants, while two definitions were used to assess trends. Results: Prevalence of low RF profile varied between 6.5% (95% confidence interval: 5.9-7.1) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5) depending on the definition used. This prevalence was higher than in other countries. Irrespective of the definition used, the prevalence of low RF profile was higher in women and in physically active participants, and decreased with increasing age or in the presence of a family history of cardiovascular disease. Using one definition, the prevalence of low RF profile increased from 3.8% (3.1-4.5) in 1984-6 to 6.7% (6.1-7.3) in 2003-6; using another definition, the results were 5.9% (5.1-6.8) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5), respectively. Conclusion: Switzerland is characterized by a high and increasing prevalence of low RF profile within the age group 35 to 75, irrespective of the criteria used. This high prevalence might partly e

Effective Shoulder Design and Maintenance, 2007

Granular shoulders are an important element of the transportation system and are constantly subjected to performance problems due to wind- and water-induced erosion, rutting, edge drop-off, and slope irregularities. Such problems can directly affect drivers’ safety and often require regular maintenance. The present research study was undertaken to investigate the factors contributing to these performance problems and to propose new ideas to design and maintain granular shoulders while keeping ownership costs low. This report includes observations made during a field reconnaissance study, findings from an effort to stabilize the granular and subgrade layer at six shoulder test sections, and the results of a laboratory box study where a shoulder section overlying a soft foundation layer was simulated. Based on the research described in this report, the following changes are proposed to the construction and maintenance methods for granular shoulders: • A minimum CBR value for the granular and subgrade layer should be selected to alleviate edge drop-off and rutting formation. • For those constructing new shoulder sections, the design charts provided in this report can be used as a rapid guide based on an allowable rut depth. The charts can also be used to predict the behavior of existing shoulders. • In the case of existing shoulder sections overlying soft foundations, the use of geogrid or fly ash stabilization proved to be an effective technique for mitigating shoulder rutting.

Audit risk and rent extraction: Evidence from a randomized evaluation in Brazil

We report results from a randomized policy experiment designed to test whether increasedaudit risk deters rent extraction in local public procurement and service delivery in Brazil. Ourestimates suggest that temporarily increasing annual audit risk by about 20 percentage pointsreduced the proportion of irregular local procurement processes by about 17 percentage points.This reduction was driven entirely by irregularities involving mismanagement or corruption. Incontrast, we find no evidence that increased audit risk affected the quality of publicly providedpreventive and primary health care services -measured based on user satisfaction surveys- orcompliance with national regulations of the conditional cash transfer program "Bolsa Família".

Dietary folates and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies.

Background Folate deficiency leads to DNA damage and inadequate repair, caused by a decreased synthesis of thymidylate and purines. We analyzed the relationship between dietary folate intake and the risk of several cancers. Patients and methods The study is based on a network of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland in 1991-2009. The odds ratios (ORs) for dietary folate intake were estimated by multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for major identified confounding factors. Results For a few cancer sites, we found a significant inverse relation, with ORs for an increment of 100 μg/day of dietary folate of 0.65 for oropharyngeal (1467 cases), 0.58 for esophageal (505 cases), 0.83 for colorectal (2390 cases), 0.72 for pancreatic (326 cases), 0.67 for laryngeal (851 cases) and 0.87 for breast (3034 cases) cancers. The risk estimates were below unity, although not significantly, for cancers of the endometrium (OR = 0.87, 454 cases), ovary (OR = 0.86, 1031 cases), prostate (OR = 0.91, 1468 cases) and kidney (OR = 0.88, 767 cases), and was 1.00 for stomach cancer (230 cases). No material heterogeneity was found in strata of sex, age, smoking and alcohol drinking. Conclusions Our data support a real inverse association of dietary folate intake with the risk of several common cancers.

Bands width, credibility and exchange risk: Lessons from the EMS experience

This paper presents an analysis of the credibility of the EMScurrencies that covers the period before and after the increase in thebands of fluctuation. Our credibility indicator is based on the inferredprobabilities derived from the estimation of a Markov-switching model(Hamilton (1989)) applied to the expected rate of depreciation. Theresults show that, for most of the currencies, credibility has improved,at least transitorily, after the increase in the bands. However, for allcurrencies, the credibility measured by the indicator proposed in thispaper has been eroded recently even with the widened bands.

Postoperative delirium. Part 1: pathophysiology and risk factors.

Delirium presents clinically with differing subtypes ranging from hyperactive to hypoactive. The clinical presentation is not clearly linked to specific pathophysiological mechanisms. Nevertheless, there seem to be different mechanisms that lead to delirium; for example the mechanisms leading to alcohol-withdrawal delirium are different from those responsible for postoperative delirium. In many forms of delirium, the brain's reaction to a peripheral inflammatory process is considered to be a pathophysiological key element and the aged brain seems to react more markedly to a peripheral inflammatory stimulus than a younger brain. The effects of inflammatory mediators on the brain include changes in neurotransmission and apoptosis. On a neurotransmitter level, impaired cholinergic transmission and disturbances of the intricate interactions between dopamine, serotonin and acetylcholine seem to play an important role in the development of delirium. The risk factors for delirium are categorised as predisposing or precipitating factors. In the presence of many predisposing factors, even trivial precipitating factors may trigger delirium, whereas in patients without or with only a few predisposing factors, a major precipitating insult is necessary to trigger delirium. Well documented predisposing factors are age, medical comorbidities, cognitive, functional, visual and hearing impairment and institutional residence. Important precipitating factors apart from surgery are admission to an ICU, anticholinergic drugs, alcohol or drug withdrawal, infections, iatrogenic complications, metabolic derangements and pain. Scores to predict the risk of delirium based on four or five risk factors have been validated in surgical patients.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study.

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Hyperhomocysteinemia is independently associated with albuminuria in the population-based CoLaus study.

Increased serum levels of homocysteine and uric acid have each been associated with cardiovascular risk. We analyzed whether homocysteine and uric acid were associated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria independently of each other. We also investigated the association of MTHFR polymorphisms related to homocysteine with albuminuria to get further insight into causality. This was a cross-sectional population-based study in Caucasians (n = 5913). Hyperhomocysteinemia was defined as total serum homocysteine ≥ 15 μmol/L. Albuminuria was defined as urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio > 30 mg/g. Uric acid was associated positively with homocysteine (r = 0.246 in men and r = 0.287 in women, P < 0.001). The prevalence of albuminuria increased across increasing homocysteine categories (from 6.4% to 17.3% in subjects with normal GFR and from 3.5% to 14.5% in those with reduced GFR, P for trend < 0.005). Hyperhomocysteinemia (OR = 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.08, P < 0.001) and elevated serum uric acid (OR = 1.27, 1.08-1.50, per 100 μmol/L, P = 0.004) were significantly associated with albuminuria, independently of hypertension and type 2 diabetes. The 2-fold higher risk of albuminuria associated with hyperhomocysteinemia was similar to the risk associated with hypertension or diabetes. MTHFR alleles related to higher homocysteine were associated with increased risk of albuminuria. In the general adult population, elevated serum homocysteine and uric acid were associated with albuminuria independently of each other and of renal function.

Concepção de uma Estratégia de Geoconservação para Cabo Verde e sua Aplicação à Ilha de Santiago

A singularidade de certos registos geológicos impressos em rochas, as peculiaridades estruturais e dinâmicas dos diversos elementos dos geossistemas, a análise dos seus valores intrínsecos, bem como da sua vulnerabilidade e dos perigos de degradação que os podem afectar, entre outros parâmetros, são factores que concorrem para a necessidade de assegurar a conservação do património geológico. É neste contexto que surge a geoconservação que preconiza a gestão do património geológico com base num conjunto de medidas e acções para a identificação, manutenção ou recuperação do valor natural dos elementos da geodiversidade numa perspectiva de sustentabilidade dos recursos geológicos que integram a componente abiótica do sistema natural. A geoconservação, à escala internacional, tem um desenvolvimento irregular. Enquanto algumas regiões estão bastante avançadas, como na Europa, outras revelam ainda alguma inércia relativamente à implementação de iniciativas que se devem enquadrar no âmbito da conservação da Natureza e do ordenamento do território. Em África, são ainda pontuais os exemplos de geoconservação pelo que, este trabalho, pretende ser promotor de uma política de geoconservação neste continente. No presente trabalho, concebemos uma estratégia de geoconservação para Cabo Verde e aplicamo-la, a título de exemplo, à ilha de Santiago. A metodologia utilizada, baseada em critérios internacionalmente reconhecidos e aceites para o inventário do património geológico de valor científico, consiste no estabelecimento de “categorias temáticas” que representam as características e evolução geológica do arquipélago. Foram propostas nove categorias para Cabo Verde e, para cada uma delas, foram inventariados diversos locais de interesse, dos quais 40 foram propostos como geossítios na ilha de Santiago. Com base nestes geossítios, propuseram-se linhas metodológicas para as etapas subsequentes que integram uma estratégia de geoconservação, nomeadamente, a quantificação, classificação, conservação, valorização, divulgação e monitorização de geossítios. Embora a conservação da geodiversidade esteja prevista, embora de forma pouco clara, na actual legislação ambiental cabo-verdiana, a execução desta estratégia de geoconservação poderá representar um dos primeiros passos para a definição, caracterização e valorização, sistemáticas, do património geológico nacional e contribuir para a implementação de uma política de sustentabilidade ambiental para o país.

Delayed diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke in children - a registry-based study in Switzerland.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY/PRINCIPLES: After arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) an early diagnosis helps preserve treatment options that are no longer available later. Paediatric AIS is difficult to diagnose and often the time to diagnosis exceeds the time window of 6 hours defined for thrombolysis in adults. We investigated the delay from the onset of symptoms to AIS diagnosis in children and potential contributing factors. METHODS: We included children with AIS below 16 years from the population-based Swiss Neuropaediatric Stroke Registry (2000-2006). We evaluated the time between initial medical evaluation for stroke signs/symptoms and diagnosis, risk factors, co-morbidities and imaging findings. RESULTS: A total of 91 children (61 boys), with a median age of 5.3 years (range: 0.2-16.2), were included. The time to diagnosis (by neuro-imaging) was <6 hours in 32 (35%), 6-12 hours in 23 (25%), 12-24 hours in 15 (16%) and >24 hours in 21 (23%) children. Of 74 children not hospitalised when the stroke occurred, 42% had adequate outpatient management. Delays in diagnosis were attributed to: parents/caregivers (n = 20), physicians of first referral (n = 5) and tertiary care hospitals (n = 8). A co-morbidity hindered timely diagnosis in eight children. No other factors were associated with delay to diagnosis. A total of 17 children were inpatients at AIS onset. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of children with AIS were diagnosed within six hours. Diagnostic delay was predominately caused by insufficient recognition of stroke symptoms. Increased public and expert awareness and immediate access to diagnostic imaging are essential. The ability of parents/caregivers and health professionals to recognise stroke symptoms in a child needs to be improved.