Bands width, credibility and exchange risk: Lessons from the EMS experience

This paper presents an analysis of the credibility of the EMScurrencies that covers the period before and after the increase in thebands of fluctuation. Our credibility indicator is based on the inferredprobabilities derived from the estimation of a Markov-switching model(Hamilton (1989)) applied to the expected rate of depreciation. Theresults show that, for most of the currencies, credibility has improved,at least transitorily, after the increase in the bands. However, for allcurrencies, the credibility measured by the indicator proposed in thispaper has been eroded recently even with the widened bands.