994 resultados para Real options (Finance).
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This report describes the development of a SYBR Green I based real time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) protocol for detection on the ABI Prism 7000 instrument. Primers targeting the gene encoding the SSU rRNA were designed to amplify with high specificity DNA from Schistosoma mansoni, in a real time quantitative PCR system. The limit of detection of parasite DNA for the system was 10 fg of purified genomic DNA, that means less than the equivalent to one parasite cell (genome ~580 fg DNA). The efficiency was 0.99 and the correlation coefficient (R²) was 0.97. When different copy numbers of the target amplicon were used as standards, the assay could detect at least 10 copies of the specific target. The primers used were designed to amplify a 106 bp DNA fragment (Tm 83ºC). The assay was highly specific for S. mansoni, and did not recognize DNA from closely related non-schistosome trematodes. The real time PCR allowed for accurate quantification of S. mansoni DNA and no time-consuming post-PCR detection of amplification products by gel electrophoresis was required. The assay is potentially able to quantify S. mansoni DNA (and indirectly parasite burden) in a number of samples, such as snail tissue, serum and feces from patients, and cercaria infested water. Thus, these PCR protocols have potential to be used as tools for monitoring of schistosome transmission and quantitative diagnosis of human infection.
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El Banc Central Europeu(BCE) ens ha encarregat preparar-li una base de dades on poder emmagatzemar uns registres diaris relacionats amb uns indicadors. En el moment d¿enregistrar els indicadors si es viola alguna regla de negoci, prèviament definides per el BCE, es llencen una sèrie d¿alertes que també s¿emmagatzemaran a la base de dades per al seu posterior tractament. Amb la informació emmagatzemada en aquesta base de dades(BD), el BCE utilitzant una aplicació per explotar aquestes dades, podrà controlar la salut dels bancs europeus en temps real i facilitar la presa de decisions. També se¿ns demana la implementació d¿un mòdul estadístic on hi hagin una sèrie de dades ja precalculades per facilitar la seva consulta.
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Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.
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Disseminated cholesterol crystal embolism is observed in elderly men with severe atherosclerosis. This syndrome may be triggered by arterial catheterizations, major vascular surgery, thrombolytic and/or anticoagulation treatment. Cutaneous signs, subacute renal insufficiency, a marked inflammatory syndrome and eosinophilia are common. Immunologic testing is normal except for hypocomplementaemia. The diagnosis may be confirmed by biopsy (skin, gastrointestinal or renal), and/or by a fundoscopic examination. The treatment consists in withdrawing all form of anticoagulation, proscribing vascular surgery and arterial catheterization, prescribing aspirin and statins, and controlling arterial blood pressure. Corticosteroids may be given in refractory cases. The prognosis of cholesterol crystal embolism is poor but may be improved by statins.
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Les possibilitats ofertes per la virtualitat tenen una gran importància en l'esfera educativa i en tots els aspectes referents a ella. Evidentment, les biblioteques i els centres de documentació no són estranys a aquest nou ambient virtual facilitat pel canvi social, econòmic i, sobretot, tecnològic que ha permès que els bibliotecaris-documentalistes accedeixin a gran quantitat d'informació i de documentació, permetent que actuïn com a agents intermediaris entre aquesta nova situació i l'ús que se'n poden fer pels diversos tipus d'usuaris.
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Clinical trials comparing different drug regimens and strategies for the treatment of congenital toxoplasmosis and its clinical manifestations in the liveborn child in different clinical settings should aim at formally evaluating the net benefit of existing treatments and at developing new therapeutic options. Currently, there is no ideal drug for congenital toxoplasmosis; future research should focus on the screening of new active drugs and on their pre-clinical and early clinical development, with a focus on pharmacokinetic/dynamic studies and teratogenicity. For the prenatal treatment of congenital toxoplasmosis, a trial comparing spiramycine to pyrimethamine-sulphadiazine and placebo would allow a formal estimation of the effect of both drugs in infected pregnant women. In newborn children, the net benefit of pyrimethamine-sulphadiazine should also be formally assessed. These trials will be implemented in settings where prenatal screening for Toxoplasma gondii is currently implemented. Trials should be carefully designed to allow for translation to other settings and modelling tools like cost-effectiveness analysis should be used to provide clinicians and founders with the best available evidence to establish recommendations.
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The progression-free survival rate at 6months (PFS-6) has long been considered the best end-point for assessing the efficacy of new agents in phase II trials in patients with recurrent glioblastoma. However, due to the introduction of antiangiogenic agents in this setting, and their intrinsic propensity to alter neuroradiological disease assessment by producing pseudoregression, any end-point based on neuroradiological modifications should be reconsidered. Further, statistically significant effects on progression-free survival (PFS) only should not automatically be considered reliable evidence of meaningful clinical benefit. In this context, because of its direct and unquestionable clinical relevance, overall survival (OS) represents the gold standard end-point for measuring clinical efficacy, despite the disadvantage that it is influenced by subsequent therapies and usually takes longer time to be evaluated. Therefore, while awaiting novel imaging criteria for response evaluation and/or new imaging tools to distinguish between 'true' and 'pseudo'-responses to antiangiogenic agents, the measurement of OS or OS rates should be considered primary end-points, also in phase II trials with these agents.
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OBJECTIVES: Gouty arthritis patients for whom non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and colchicine are inappropriate have limited treatment options. Canakinumab, an anti-interleukin-1β monoclonal antibody, may be an option for such patients. The authors assessed the efficacy/safety of one dose of canakinumab 150 mg (n=230) or triamcinolone acetonide (TA) 40 mg (n=226) at baseline and upon a new flare in frequently flaring patients contraindicated for, intolerant of, or unresponsive to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or colchicine. Core study co-primary endpoints were pain intensity 72 h postdose (0-100 mm visual analogue scale and time to first new flare. METHODS: Two 12-week randomised, multicentre, active-controlled, double-blind, parallel-group core studies with double-blind 12-week extensions (response in acute flare and in prevention of episodes of re-flare in gout (β-RELIEVED and β-RELIEVED-II)). RESULTS: 82.6% patients had comorbidities. Mean 72-h visual analogue scale pain score was lower with canakinumab (25.0 mm vs 35.7 mm; difference, -10.7 mm; 95% CI -15.4 to -6.0; p<0.0001), with significantly less physician-assessed tenderness and swelling (ORs=2.16 and 2.74; both p≤0.01) versus TA. Canakinumab significantly delayed time to first new flare, reduced the risk of new flares by 62% versus TA (HR: 0.38; 95% CI 0.26 to 0.57) in the core studies and by 56% (HR: 0.44; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.60; both p≤0.0001) over the entire 24-week period, and decreased median C-reactive protein levels (p≤0.0001 at 72 h and 7 days). Over the 24-week period, adverse events were reported in 66.2% (canakinumab) and 52.8% (TA) and serious adverse events were reported in 8.0% (canakinumab) and 3.5% (TA) of patients. Adverse events reported more frequently with canakinumab included infections, low neutrophil count and low platelet count. CONCLUSION: Canakinumab provided significant pain and inflammation relief and reduced the risk of new flares in these patients with acute gouty arthritis.
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Reinforcement learning (RL) is a very suitable technique for robot learning, as it can learn in unknown environments and in real-time computation. The main difficulties in adapting classic RL algorithms to robotic systems are the generalization problem and the correct observation of the Markovian state. This paper attempts to solve the generalization problem by proposing the semi-online neural-Q_learning algorithm (SONQL). The algorithm uses the classic Q_learning technique with two modifications. First, a neural network (NN) approximates the Q_function allowing the use of continuous states and actions. Second, a database of the most representative learning samples accelerates and stabilizes the convergence. The term semi-online is referred to the fact that the algorithm uses the current but also past learning samples. However, the algorithm is able to learn in real-time while the robot is interacting with the environment. The paper shows simulated results with the "mountain-car" benchmark and, also, real results with an underwater robot in a target following behavior
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This paper proposes a field application of a high-level reinforcement learning (RL) control system for solving the action selection problem of an autonomous robot in cable tracking task. The learning system is characterized by using a direct policy search method for learning the internal state/action mapping. Policy only algorithms may suffer from long convergence times when dealing with real robotics. In order to speed up the process, the learning phase has been carried out in a simulated environment and, in a second step, the policy has been transferred and tested successfully on a real robot. Future steps plan to continue the learning process on-line while on the real robot while performing the mentioned task. We demonstrate its feasibility with real experiments on the underwater robot ICTINEU AUV
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This paper deals with the problem of navigation for an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) through image mosaicking. It represents a first step towards a real-time vision-based navigation system for a small-class low-cost UUV. We propose a navigation system composed by: (i) an image mosaicking module which provides velocity estimates; and (ii) an extended Kalman filter based on the hydrodynamic equation of motion, previously identified for this particular UUV. The obtained system is able to estimate the position and velocity of the robot. Moreover, it is able to deal with visual occlusions that usually appear when the sea bottom does not have enough visual features to solve the correspondence problem in a certain area of the trajectory
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The automatic interpretation of conventional traffic signs is very complex and time consuming. The paper concerns an automatic warning system for driving assistance. It does not interpret the standard traffic signs on the roadside; the proposal is to incorporate into the existing signs another type of traffic sign whose information will be more easily interpreted by a processor. The type of information to be added is profuse and therefore the most important object is the robustness of the system. The basic proposal of this new philosophy is that the co-pilot system for automatic warning and driving assistance can interpret with greater ease the information contained in the new sign, whilst the human driver only has to interpret the "classic" sign. One of the codings that has been tested with good results and which seems to us easy to implement is that which has a rectangular shape and 4 vertical bars of different colours. The size of these signs is equivalent to the size of the conventional signs (approximately 0.4 m2). The colour information from the sign can be easily interpreted by the proposed processor and the interpretation is much easier and quicker than the information shown by the pictographs of the classic signs
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Geographical Information System (GIS) is a tool that has recently been applied to better understand spatial disease distributions. Using meteorological, social, sanitation, mollusc distribution data and remote sensing variables, this study aimed to further develop the GIS technology by creating a model for the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and to apply this model to an area with rural tourism in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais (MG). The Estrada Real, covering about 1,400 km, is the largest and most important Brazilian tourism project, involving 163 cities in MG with different schistosomiasis prevalence rates. The model with three variables showed a R² = 0.34, with a standard deviation of risk estimated adequate for public health needs. The main variables selected for modelling were summer vegetation, summer minimal temperature and winter minimal temperature. The results confirmed the importance of Remote Sensing data and the valuable contribution of GIS in identifying priority areas for intervention in tourism regions which are endemic to schistosomiasis.
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This study aimed to quantify Toxoplasma gondii in tissue samples of serologically positive chickens using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Of 65 chickens evaluated, 28 were positive for T. gondii antibodies. Brain and heart samples were collected from 26 seropositive chickens and DNA was extracted using Trizol® and amplified using real-time PCR with SYBR® Green. Parasite DNA was detected in 24 of the 26 samples analyzed; the number of positive tissue samples and the parasite quantity did not differ between tissue types. The results confirmed the analytical sensitivity of parasite detection in chicken tissue samples and demonstrated the possibility of using other molecular systems for genotypic analysis.