971 resultados para Process uncertainty


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The increased interest in the area of process improvement persuaded Rabobank Group ICT in examining its own Change-process in order to improve its competitiveness. The group is looking for answers about the effectiveness of changes applied as part of this process, with particular interest toward the presence of predictive patterns and their parameters. We conducted an analysis of the log using well established process mining techniques (i.e. Fuzzy Miner). The results of the analysis conducted on the log of the process show that a visible impact is missing.

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Artemisinin (ART) based combination therapy (ACT) is used as the first line treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in over 100 countries and is the cornerstone of malaria control and elimination programs in these areas. However, despite the high potency and rapid parasite killing action of ART derivatives there is a high rate of recrudescence associated with ART monotherapy and recrudescence is not uncommon even when ACT is used. Compounding this problem are reports that some parasites in Cambodia, a known foci of drug resistance, have decreased in vivo sensitivity to ART. This raises serious concerns for the development of ART resistance in the field even though no major phenotypic and genotypic changes have yet been identified in these parasites. In this article we review available data on the characteristics of ART, its effects on Plasmodium falciparum parasites and present a hypothesis to explain the high rate of recrudescence associated with this potent class of drugs and the current enigma surrounding ART resistance.

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S. japonicum infection is believed to be endemic in 28 of the 80 provinces of the Philippines and the most recent data on schistosomiasis prevalence have shown considerable variability between provinces. In order to increase the efficient allocation of parasitic disease control resources in the country, we aimed to describe the small scale spatial variation in S. japonicum prevalence across the Philippines, quantify the role of the physical environment in driving the spatial variation of S. japonicum, and develop a predictive risk map of S. japonicum infection. Data on S. japonicum infection from 35,754 individuals across the country were geo-located at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was then stratified geographically for Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao. Zero-inflated binomial Bayesian geostatistical models of S. japonicum prevalence were developed and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. Results of the analysis show that in the three regions, males and individuals aged ≥ 20 years had significantly higher prevalence of S. japonicum compared with females and children <5 years. The role of the environmental variables differed between regions of the Philippines. S. japonicum infection was widespread in the Visayas whereas it was much more focal in Luzon and Mindanao. This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in prevalence of S. japonicum infection in the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to schistosomiasis interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional schistosomiasis surveys should be prioritized to areas identified to be at high risk, but which were underrepresented in our dataset.

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This paper evaluates the suitability of sequence classification techniques for analyzing deviant business process executions based on event logs. Deviant process executions are those that deviate in a negative or positive way with respect to normative or desirable outcomes, such as non-compliant executions or executions that undershoot or exceed performance targets. We evaluate a range of feature types and classification methods in terms of their ability to accurately discriminate between normal and deviant executions both when deviances are infrequent (unbalanced) and when deviances are as frequent as normal executions (balanced). We also analyze the ability of the discovered rules to explain potential causes and contributing factors of observed deviances. The evaluation results show that feature types extracted using pattern mining techniques only slightly outperform those based on individual activity frequency. The results also suggest that more complex feature types ought to be explored to achieve higher levels of accuracy.

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Notwithstanding the interest over many years by scholars in modeling the internationalization of the firm, the initial transition for the firm from domestic to international operations remains under-researched. We identify the behavioral factors that are important at the pre-internationalization state and discuss how they may interrelate to influence a decision to commit to internationalization through export commencement. We study export commitment by proposing and constructing an index that incorporates the factors that influence a firm’s propensity to commit to export activities. Utilizing the items from this index in a logistic regression analysis, we distinguish between the pre-internationalization characteristics of exporting and non-exporting firms to better understand the key influences in export commitment. Implications are discussed.

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In recent years, the beauty leaf plant (Calophyllum Inophyllum) is being considered as a potential 2nd generation biodiesel source due to high seed oil content, high fruit production rate, simple cultivation and ability to grow in a wide range of climate conditions. However, however, due to the high free fatty acid (FFA) content in this oil, the potential of this biodiesel feedstock is still unrealized, and little research has been undertaken on it. In this study, transesterification of beauty leaf oil to produce biodiesel has been investigated. A two-step biodiesel conversion method consisting of acid catalysed pre-esterification and alkali catalysed transesterification has been utilized. The three main factors that drive the biodiesel (fatty acid methyl ester (FAME)) conversion from vegetable oil (triglycerides) were studied using response surface methodology (RSM) based on a Box-Behnken experimental design. The factors considered in this study were catalyst concentration, methanol to oil molar ratio and reaction temperature. Linear and full quadratic regression models were developed to predict FFA and FAME concentration and to optimize the reaction conditions. The significance of these factors and their interaction in both stages was determined using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The reaction conditions for the largest reduction in FFA concentration for acid catalysed pre-esterification was 30:1 methanol to oil molar ratio, 10% (w/w) sulfuric acid catalyst loading and 75 °C reaction temperature. In the alkali catalysed transesterification process 7.5:1 methanol to oil molar ratio, 1% (w/w) sodium methoxide catalyst loading and 55 °C reaction temperature were found to result in the highest FAME conversion. The good agreement between model outputs and experimental results demonstrated that this methodology may be useful for industrial process optimization for biodiesel production from beauty leaf oil and possibly other industrial processes as well.

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Knowledge Integration (KI) is one of the major aspects driving innovation within an organisation. In this paper, we attempt to develop a better understanding of responses to the challenges of knowledge integration within the innovation process in technology-based firms. Using four technology-based Australian firms, we investigated how knowledge integration may be managed within the context of innovation in technology firms. Previous research highlights the role of four KI tasks that affect the innovation capability within technology-oriented firms, namely team building capability, capturing tacit knowledge, role of Knowledge Management (KM) systems and technological systemic integration. Our findings indicate that in addition to these four tasks, a strategic approach to integrating knowledge for innovation, as well as leadership and management, are essential to achieving effective KI across multiple levels of engagement. Our findings also offer practical insights into how knowledge can be integrated within innovation process, with specific implications for managers.

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It is not uncommon for firms to explore a new venture under the belief it will generate profits, only to find out later that although costs accumulated, profits did not materialize. To manage the high level of uncertainty involved in this process, new ventures are generally designed as vehicles of exploration (Wu, 2012) that allow for a staged investment of resources, starting with small initial investments that can be scaled up or discontinued as uncertainty is resolved over time (Folta, 1998; Li and Chi, 2013). As such, new ventures provide firms a vehicle by which they can probe an uncertain future (Brown and Eisenhardt, 1997) without fully committing early on to an irreversible course of action (Folta, Johnson, and O’Brien, 2006). Our focus in the present paper is on the timing of strategic decisions that firms make regarding their exploration ventures. Prior research in the fields of entrepreneurship, real options reasoning, and decision speed has demonstrated a link between the timing of making decisions and performance (Baum and Wally, 2003; Eisenhardt, 1989; Judge and Miller, 1991). The antecedents to the timing of decisions, however, are less understood and pose an interesting dilemma.

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Background: Advance Care Planning is an iterative process of discussion, decision-making and documentation about end-of-life care. Advance Care Planning is highly relevant in palliative care due to intersecting clinical needs. To enhance the implementation of Advance Care Planning, the contextual factors influencing its uptake need to be better understood. Aim: To identify the contextual factors influencing the uptake of Advance Care Planning in palliative care as published between January 2008 and December 2012. Methods: Databases were systematically searched for studies about Advance Care Planning in palliative care published between January 2008 and December 2012. This yielded 27 eligible studies, which were appraised using National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Quality Appraisal Checklists. Iterative thematic synthesis was used to group results. Results: Factors associated with greater uptake included older age, a college degree, a diagnosis of cancer, greater functional impairment, being white, greater understanding of poor prognosis and receiving or working in specialist palliative care. Barriers included having non-malignant diagnoses, having dependent children, being African American, and uncertainty about Advance Care Planning and its legal status. Individuals’ previous illness experiences, preferences and attitudes also influenced their participation. Conclusion: Factors influencing the uptake of Advance Care Planning in palliative care are complex and multifaceted reflecting the diverse and often competing needs of patients, health professionals, legislature and health systems. Large population-based studies of palliative care patients are required to develop the sound theoretical and empirical foundation needed to improve uptake of Advance Care Planning in this setting.

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This is the third TAProViz workshop being run at BPM. The intention this year is to consolidate on the results of the previous successful workshops by further developing this important topic, identifying the key research topics of interest to the BPM visualization community. We note this year the continuing interest in the visualisation of process mining data and resultant process models. More info at: http://wst.univie.ac.at/topics/taproviz14/

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This presentation incorporated the live performance throughout, by the author, of movement from “The All Weather Project” by Liz Roche. Movement sections are indicated by italics. “I am going to start by dancing for you… Movement: Live performance of solo approximately 10 minutes in duration This is the introduction... Through my PhD research, I am examining the choreographic process from the perspective of the independent contemporary dancer, through embodying this role as a researcher/participant. My methodological frameworks, which utilise video documentation and journal writing, could be characterised as ethnographic, multi-modal embodied theorising, leading to “multi-dimensional theorising” (I adopt this term from Susan Melrose). In this way, I am unwinding the embodied practice of dancing, through the co-existent layers of experience, towards forming a theoretical understanding of the issues that arise for the dancer. The issues that I have identified as relevant to my research are those relating to the dancer’s ‘moving identity’ or way of moving, as a mutable and adaptable form that must alter and re-adjust to each different choreographic engram or movement vocabulary, that she/he encounters. I am examining this interplay between stability and change. I also reflect on the impact of destabilisation and flux on the dancer’s identity in a wider sense, as she/he relates outwardly to signifying factors within the social strata. Today I am going to bring you through a reflection on the working process of a dance piece as experienced from the inside. By doing so, I hope to capture and elucidate the multi-dimensional layers which existed for me within this process. Through displaying these fragments together, I endeavour to invoke the ‘totality’ of the experience...