928 resultados para Price dynamics model with memory


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In this study, the vortex-induced vibrations of a cylinder near a rigid plane boundary in a steady flow are studied experimentally. The phenomenon of vortex-induced vibrations of the cylinder near the rigid plane boundary is reproduced in the flume. The vortex shedding frequency and mode are also measured by the methods of hot film velocimeter and hydrogen bubbles. A parametric study is carried out to investigate the influences of reduced velocity, gap-to-diameter ratio, stability parameter and mass ratio on the amplitude and frequency responses of the cylinder. Experimental results indicate: (1) the Strouhal number (St) is around 0.2 for the stationary cylinder near a plane boundary in the sub-critical flow regime; (2) with increasing gap-to-diameter ratio (e (0)/D), the amplitude ratio (A/D) gets larger but frequency ratio (f/f (n) ) has a slight variation for the case of larger values of e (0)/D (e (0)/D > 0.66 in this study); (3) there is a clear difference of amplitude and frequency responses of the cylinder between the larger gap-to-diameter ratios (e (0)/D > 0.66) and the smaller ones (e (0)/D < 0.3); (4) the vibration of the cylinder is easier to occur and the range of vibration in terms of V (r) number becomes more extensive with decrease of the stability parameter, but the frequency response is affected slightly by the stability parameter; (5) with decreasing mass ratio, the width of the lock-in ranges in terms of V (r) and the frequency ratio (f/f (n) ) become larger.

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We investigate the 2d O(3) model with the standard action by Monte Carlo simulation at couplings β up to 2.05. We measure the energy density, mass gap and susceptibility of the model, and gather high statistics on lattices of size L ≤ 1024 using the Floating Point Systems T-series vector hypercube and the Thinking Machines Corp.'s Connection Machine 2. Asymptotic scaling does not appear to set in for this action, even at β = 2.10, where the correlation length is 420. We observe a 20% difference between our estimate m/Λ^─_(Ms) = 3.52(6) at this β and the recent exact analytical result . We use the overrelaxation algorithm interleaved with Metropolis updates and show that decorrelation time scales with the correlation length and the number of overrelaxation steps per sweep. We determine its effective dynamical critical exponent to be z' = 1.079(10); thus critical slowing down is reduced significantly for this local algorithm that is vectorizable and parallelizable.

We also use the cluster Monte Carlo algorithms, which are non-local Monte Carlo update schemes which can greatly increase the efficiency of computer simulations of spin models. The major computational task in these algorithms is connected component labeling, to identify clusters of connected sites on a lattice. We have devised some new SIMD component labeling algorithms, and implemented them on the Connection Machine. We investigate their performance when applied to the cluster update of the two dimensional Ising spin model.

Finally we use a Monte Carlo Renormalization Group method to directly measure the couplings of block Hamiltonians at different blocking levels. For the usual averaging block transformation we confirm the renormalized trajectory (RT) observed by Okawa. For another improved probabilistic block transformation we find the RT, showing that it is much closer to the Standard Action. We then use this block transformation to obtain the discrete β-function of the model which we compare to the perturbative result. We do not see convergence, except when using a rescaled coupling β_E to effectively resum the series. For the latter case we see agreement for m/ Λ^─_(Ms) at , β = 2.14, 2.26, 2.38 and 2.50. To three loops m/Λ^─_(Ms) = 3.047(35) at β = 2.50, which is very close to the exact value m/ Λ^─_(Ms) = 2.943. Our last point at β = 2.62 disagrees with this estimate however.

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A new geometry-independent state - a traveling-wave wall state - is proposed as the mechanism whereby which the experimentally observed wall-localized states in rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection systems preempt the bulk state at large rotation rates. Its properties are calculated for the illustrative case of free-slip top and bottom boundary conditions. At small rotation rates, this new wall state is found to disappear. A detailed study of the dynamics of the wall state and the bulk state in the transition region where this disappearance occurs is conducted using a Swift-Hohenberg model system. The Swift-Hohenberg model, with appropriate reflection-symmetry- breaking boundary conditions, is also shown to exhibit traveling-wave wall states, further demonstrating that traveling-wave wall states are a generic feature of nonequilibrium pattern-forming systems. A numerical code for the Swift-Hohenberg model in an annular geometry was written and used to investigate the dynamics of rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection systems.

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This thesis describes simple extensions of the standard model with new sources of baryon number violation but no proton decay. The motivation for constructing such theories comes from the shortcomings of the standard model to explain the generation of baryon asymmetry in the universe, and from the absence of experimental evidence for proton decay. However, lack of any direct evidence for baryon number violation in general puts strong bounds on the naturalness of some of those models and favors theories with suppressed baryon number violation below the TeV scale. The initial part of the thesis concentrates on investigating models containing new scalars responsible for baryon number breaking. A model with new color sextet scalars is analyzed in more detail. Apart from generating cosmological baryon number, it gives nontrivial predictions for the neutron-antineutron oscillations, the electric dipole moment of the neutron, and neutral meson mixing. The second model discussed in the thesis contains a new scalar leptoquark. Although this model predicts mainly lepton flavor violation and a nonzero electric dipole moment of the electron, it includes, in its original form, baryon number violating nonrenormalizable dimension-five operators triggering proton decay. Imposing an appropriate discrete symmetry forbids such operators. Finally, a supersymmetric model with gauged baryon and lepton numbers is proposed. It provides a natural explanation for proton stability and predicts lepton number violating processes below the supersymmetry breaking scale, which can be tested at the Large Hadron Collider. The dark matter candidate in this model carries baryon number and can be searched for in direct detection experiments as well. The thesis is completed by constructing and briefly discussing a minimal extension of the standard model with gauged baryon, lepton, and flavor symmetries.

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In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC2) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC2 criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC2 criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC2 to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

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Part I:

The earth's core is generally accepted to be composed primarily of iron, with an admixture of other elements. Because the outer core is observed not to transmit shear waves at seismic frequencies, it is known to be liquid or primarily liquid. A new equation of state is presented for liquid iron, in the form of parameters for the 4th order Birch-Murnaghan and Mie-Grüneisen equations of state. The parameters were constrained by a set of values for numerous properties compiled from the literature. A detailed theoretical model is used to constrain the P-T behavior of the heat capacity, based on recent advances in the understanding of the interatomic potentials for transition metals. At the reference pressure of 105 Pa and temperature of 1811 K (the normal melting point of Fe), the parameters are: ρ = 7037 kg/m3, KS0 = 110 GPa, KS' = 4.53, KS" = -.0337 GPa-1, and γ = 2.8, with γ α ρ-1.17. Comparison of the properties predicted by this model with the earth model PREM indicates that the outer core is 8 to 10 % less dense than pure liquid Fe at the same conditions. The inner core is also found to be 3 to 5% less dense than pure liquid Fe, supporting the idea of a partially molten inner core. The density deficit of the outer core implies that the elements dissolved in the liquid Fe are predominantly of lower atomic weight than Fe. Of the candidate light elements favored by researchers, only sulfur readily dissolves into Fe at low pressure, which means that this element was almost certainly concentrated in the core at early times. New melting data are presented for FeS and FeS2 which indicate that the FeS2 is the S-hearing liquidus solid phase at inner core pressures. Consideration of the requirement that the inner core boundary be observable by seismological means and the freezing behavior of solutions leads to the possibility that the outer core may contain a significant fraction of solid material. It is found that convection in the outer core is not hindered if the solid particles are entrained in the fluid flow. This model for a core of Fe and S admits temperatures in the range 3450K to 4200K at the top of the core. An all liquid Fe-S outer core would require a temperature of about 4900 K at the top of the core.

Part II.

The abundance of uses for organic compounds in the modern world results in many applications in which these materials are subjected to high pressures. This leads to the desire to be able to describe the behavior of these materials under such conditions. Unfortunately, the number of compounds is much greater than the number of experimental data available for many of the important properties. In the past, one approach that has worked well is the calculation of appropriate properties by summing the contributions from the organic functional groups making up molecules of the compounds in question. A new set of group contributions for the molar volume, volume thermal expansivity, heat capacity, and the Rao function is presented for functional groups containing C, H, and O. This set is, in most cases, limited in application to low molecular liquids. A new technique for the calculation of the pressure derivative of the bulk modulus is also presented. Comparison with data indicates that the presented technique works very well for most low molecular hydrocarbon liquids and somewhat less well for oxygen-bearing compounds. A similar comparison of previous results for polymers indicates that the existing tabulations of group contributions for this class of materials is in need of revision. There is also evidence that the Rao function contributions for polymers and low molecular compounds are somewhat different.

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In this study the dynamics of flow over the blades of vertical axis wind turbines was investigated using a simplified periodic motion to uncover the fundamental flow physics and provide insight into the design of more efficient turbines. Time-resolved, two-dimensional velocity measurements were made with particle image velocimetry on a wing undergoing pitching and surging motion to mimic the flow on a turbine blade in a non-rotating frame. Dynamic stall prior to maximum angle of attack and a leading edge vortex development were identified in the phase-averaged flow field and captured by a simple model with five modes, including the first two harmonics of the pitch/surge frequency identified using the dynamic mode decomposition. Analysis of these modes identified vortical structures corresponding to both frequencies that led the separation and reattachment processes, while their phase relationship determined the evolution of the flow.

Detailed analysis of the leading edge vortex found multiple regimes of vortex development coupled to the time-varying flow field on the airfoil. The vortex was shown to grow on the airfoil for four convection times, before shedding and causing dynamic stall in agreement with 'optimal' vortex formation theory. Vortex shedding from the trailing edge was identified from instantaneous velocity fields prior to separation. This shedding was found to be in agreement with classical Strouhal frequency scaling and was removed by phase averaging, which indicates that it is not exactly coupled to the phase of the airfoil motion.

The flow field over an airfoil undergoing solely pitch motion was shown to develop similarly to the pitch/surge motion; however, flow separation took place earlier, corresponding to the earlier formation of the leading edge vortex. A similar reduced-order model to the pitch/surge case was developed, with similar vortical structures leading separation and reattachment; however, the relative phase lead of the separation mode, corresponding to earlier separation, necessitated that a third frequency to be incorporated into the reattachment mode to provide a relative lag in reattachment.

Finally, the results are returned to the rotating frame and the effects of each flow phenomena on the turbine are estimated, suggesting kinematic criteria for the design of improved turbines.

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Techniques are developed for estimating activity profiles in fixed bed reactors and catalyst deactivation parameters from operating reactor data. These techniques are applicable, in general, to most industrial catalytic processes. The catalytic reforming of naphthas is taken as a broad example to illustrate the estimation schemes and to signify the physical meaning of the kinetic parameters of the estimation equations. The work is described in two parts. Part I deals with the modeling of kinetic rate expressions and the derivation of the working equations for estimation. Part II concentrates on developing various estimation techniques.

Part I: The reactions used to describe naphtha reforming are dehydrogenation and dehydroisomerization of cycloparaffins; isomerization, dehydrocyclization and hydrocracking of paraffins; and the catalyst deactivation reactions, namely coking on alumina sites and sintering of platinum crystallites. The rate expressions for the above reactions are formulated, and the effects of transport limitations on the overall reaction rates are discussed in the appendices. Moreover, various types of interaction between the metallic and acidic active centers of reforming catalysts are discussed as characterizing the different types of reforming reactions.

Part II: In catalytic reactor operation, the activity distribution along the reactor determines the kinetics of the main reaction and is needed for predicting the effect of changes in the feed state and the operating conditions on the reactor output. In the case of a monofunctional catalyst and of bifunctional catalysts in limiting conditions, the cumulative activity is sufficient for predicting steady reactor output. The estimation of this cumulative activity can be carried out easily from measurements at the reactor exit. For a general bifunctional catalytic system, the detailed activity distribution is needed for describing the reactor operation, and some approximation must be made to obtain practicable estimation schemes. This is accomplished by parametrization techniques using measurements at a few points along the reactor. Such parametrization techniques are illustrated numerically with a simplified model of naphtha reforming.

To determine long term catalyst utilization and regeneration policies, it is necessary to estimate catalyst deactivation parameters from the the current operating data. For a first order deactivation model with a monofunctional catalyst or with a bifunctional catalyst in special limiting circumstances, analytical techniques are presented to transform the partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations which admit more feasible estimation schemes. Numerical examples include the catalytic oxidation of butene to butadiene and a simplified model of naphtha reforming. For a general bifunctional system or in the case of a monofunctional catalyst subject to general power law deactivation, the estimation can only be accomplished approximately. The basic feature of an appropriate estimation scheme involves approximating the activity profile by certain polynomials and then estimating the deactivation parameters from the integrated form of the deactivation equation by regression techniques. Different bifunctional systems must be treated by different estimation algorithms, which are illustrated by several cases of naphtha reforming with different feed or catalyst composition.

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Objective: Aerosol delivery holds potential to release surfactant or perfluorocarbon (PFC) to the lungs of neonates with respiratory distress syndrome with minimal airway manipulation. Nevertheless, lung deposition in neonates tends to be very low due to extremely low lung volumes, narrow airways and high respiratory rates. In the present study, the feasibility of enhancing lung deposition by intracorporeal delivery of aerosols was investigated using a physical model of neonatal conducting airways. Methods: The main characteristics of the surfactant and PFC aerosols produced by a nebulization system, including the distal air pressure and air flow rate, liquid flow rate and mass median aerodynamic diameter (MMAD), were measured at different driving pressures (4-7 bar). Then, a three-dimensional model of the upper conducting airways of a neonate was manufactured by rapid prototyping and a deposition study was conducted. Results: The nebulization system produced relatively large amounts of aerosol ranging between 0.3 +/- 0.0 ml/min for surfactant at a driving pressure of 4 bar, and 2.0 +/- 0.1 ml/min for distilled water (H(2)Od) at 6 bar, with MMADs between 2.61 +/- 0.1 mu m for PFD at 7 bar and 10.18 +/- 0.4 mu m for FC-75 at 6 bar. The deposition study showed that for surfactant and H(2)Od aerosols, the highest percentage of the aerosolized mass (similar to 65%) was collected beyond the third generation of branching in the airway model. The use of this delivery system in combination with continuous positive airway pressure set at 5 cmH(2)O only increased total airway pressure by 1.59 cmH(2)O at the highest driving pressure (7 bar). Conclusion: This aerosol generating system has the potential to deliver relatively large amounts of surfactant and PFC beyond the third generation of branching in a neonatal airway model with minimal alteration of pre-set respiratory support.

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This paper investigates stability and asymptotic properties of the error with respect to its nominal version of a nonlinear time-varying perturbed functional differential system subject to point, finite-distributed, and Volterra-type distributed delays associated with linear dynamics together with a class of nonlinear delayed dynamics. The boundedness of the error and its asymptotic convergence to zero are investigated with the results being obtained based on the Hyers-Ulam-Rassias analysis.

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Este trabalho estima, utilizando dados trimestrais de 1999 a 2011, o impacto dinâmico de um estímulo fiscal no Brasil sobre as principais variáveis macroeconômicas Brasileiras. Na estimativa dos impactos permitiu-se que as expectativas dos agentes econômicas fossem afetadas pela existência e probabilidade de alternância de regimes (foram detectados dois regimes) na política monetária do país. Os parâmetros da regra da política monetária, nos dois regimes detectados, foram estimados através de um modelo - composto apenas pela equação da regra da política monetária - que permite uma mudança de regime Markoviana. Os parâmetros do único regime encontrado para a política fiscal foram estimados por um modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (Vector Error Correction Model - VEC), composto apenas pelas variáveis pertencentes à regra da política fiscal. Os parâmetros estimados, para os diversos regimes das políticas monetária e fiscal, foram utilizados como auxiliares na calibragem de um modelo de equilíbrio geral estocástico dinâmico (MEGED), com mudanças de regime, com rigidez nominal de preços e concorrência monopolística (como em Davig e Leeper (2011)). Após a calibragem do MEGED os impactos dinâmicos de um estímulo fiscal foram obtidos através de uma rotina numérica (desenvolvida por Davig e Leeper (2006)) que permite obter o equilíbrio dinâmico do modelo resolvendo um sistema de equações de diferenças de primeira ordem expectacionais dinâmicas não lineares. Obtivemos que a política fiscal foi passiva durante todo o período analisado e que a política monetária foi sempre ativa, porém sendo em determinados momentos menos ativa. Em geral, em ambas as combinações de regimes, um choque não antecipado dos gastos do governo leva ao aumento do hiato do produto, aumento dos juros reais, redução do consumo privado e (em contradição com o resultado convencional) redução da taxa de inflação.

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A generalized Bayesian population dynamics model was developed for analysis of historical mark-recapture studies. The Bayesian approach builds upon existing maximum likelihood methods and is useful when substantial uncertainties exist in the data or little information is available about auxiliary parameters such as tag loss and reporting rates. Movement rates are obtained through Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which are suitable for use as input in subsequent stock assessment analysis. The mark-recapture model was applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus) off the west coast of the United States and Canada and migration rates were estimated to be 2% per month to the north and 4% per month to the south. These posterior parameter distributions and the Bayesian framework for comparing hypotheses can guide fishery scientists in structuring the spatial and temporal complexity of future analyses of this kind. This approach could be easily generalized for application to other species and more data-rich fishery analyses.

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Fishery managers are mandated to understand the effects that environmental damage, fishery regulations, and habitat improvement projects have on the net benefits that recreational anglers derive from their sport. Since 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has worked to develop a consistent method for estimating net benefits through site choice models of recreational trip demand. In estimating net benefits with these models, there is a tradeoff between computational efficiency and angler behavior in reality. This article examines this tradeoff by considering the sensitivity of angler-welfare estimates for an increase in striped bass (Morone saxatalis) angling quality across choice sets with five travel distance cutoffs and compares those estimates to a model with an unrestricted choice set. This article shows that 95% confidence intervals for welfare estimates of an increase in the striped bass catch and keep rate overlap for all distance-based choice sets specified here.

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A inflação consegue dar conta de uma série de problemas do Modelo padrão da Cosmologia, preservando ainda o sucesso do modelo do Big Bang. Na sua versão mais simples, a inflação é controlada por um campo escalar, o ínflaton, que faz com que o universo se expanda exponencialmente. Após, o ínflaton decai e ocorre o reaquecimento do universo. Contudo, alguns autores apontam a existência de uma fase intermediária, chamada de pré-aquecimento. O decaimento do ínflaton possui uma rica dinâmica não-linear. No primeiro estágio, a ressonância paramétrica promove o crescimento exponencial de alguns modos do ínflaton. Isto altera a dinâmica do modo homogêneo do ínflaton, promovendo uma reestruturação das cartas de ressonâncias da equação de movimento dos modos perturbativos. Desta forma, ocorre a transferência de energia para estes modos, até que o universo termaliza. Esta transferência de energia é típica de um sistema turbulento. Por se tratar de uma evolução não-linear, torna-se conveniente a implementação computacional de métodos numéricos. Neste contexto, os métodos espectrais têm se mostrado uma excelente ferramenta para estudar este tipo de sistema. Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados do esquema numérico desenvolvido para o modelo com potencial quártico, que será a base para os demais estudos a serem desenvolvidos. Como mostrado, este esquema é extremamente preciso e eficiente.