977 resultados para Preiction error methods


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We present a novel spatiotemporal-adaptive Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method, which is based on the natural idea that the global coarse-scale problem has longer characteristic time than the local fine-scale problems. As a consequence, the global problem can be solved with larger time steps than the local problems. In contrast to the pressure-transport splitting usually employed in the standard MsFV approach, we propose to start directly with a local-global splitting that allows to locally retain the original degree of coupling. This is crucial for highly non-linear systems or in the presence of physical instabilities. To obtain an accurate and efficient algorithm, we devise new adaptive criteria for global update that are based on changes of coarse-scale quantities rather than on fine-scale quantities, as it is routinely done before in the adaptive MsFV method. By means of a complexity analysis we show that the adaptive approach gives a noticeable speed-up with respect to the standard MsFV algorithm. In particular, it is efficient in case of large upscaling factors, which is important for multiphysics problems. Based on the observation that local time stepping acts as a smoother, we devise a self-correcting algorithm which incorporates the information from previous times to improve the quality of the multiscale approximation. We present results of multiphase flow simulations both for Darcy-scale and multiphysics (hybrid) problems, in which a local pore-scale description is combined with a global Darcy-like description. The novel spatiotemporal-adaptive multiscale method based on the local-global splitting is not limited to porous media flow problems, but it can be extended to any system described by a set of conservation equations.

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The high sensitivity and the possibility of automation of the enzyme-linked-immunosorbent-assay (ELISA) has indicated this technique as one of the most useful serological test for epidemiological studies. In the present study, an ELISA for detection of IgG antibodies against adult worm antigens (IgG-ELISA) was investigated for epidemiological purposes, in a rural area of the municipality of Itariri (São Paulo, Brazil). Blood on filter paper (1,180 samples) from about 650 schoolchildren were submitted to ELISA and the data compared to the results of the parasitological method of Kato-Katz and also to the IgM-IFT (immunofluorescence test for IgM antibodies to gut associated antigens). The prevalence rates respectively of 8.5%, 43.0%, and 56.2% by the Kato-Katz, IgG-ELISA, and IgM-IFT methods suggest the poor sensitivity of the parasitological method for detection of Schistosoma mansoni eggs in individuals with low worm burden, situation commonly observed in low endemic areas. These results can partially explain the poor degree of agreement between the IgG-ELISA and the Kato-Katz, as suggested by the Kappa index of 0.170. Otherwise, the Kappa index of 0.675 showed substantial agreement between the two serological tests. Some discrepancy of results between the two serological techniques must be better investigated.

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The diagnosis of trypanosomosis in animals with low parasitaemia is hampered by low diagnostic sensitivity of traditional detection methods. An immunodiagnostic method based on a direct sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), using monoclonal antibodies, has been examined in a number of African laboratories for its suitability for monitoring tsetse control and eradication programmes. Generally, the direct sandwich ELISAs for the detection of trypanosomal antigens in serum samples have proved to be unsatisfactory with respect to diagnostic sensitivity when compared with traditional parasitological methods such as the dark ground/phase contrast buffy-coat technique. Consequently, antigen-detection systems exploiting various other direct, indirect and sandwich ELISA systems and sets of reagents are being developed to improve diagnosis. In addition, an existing indirect ELISA for the detection of antibodies has been improved and is being evaluated in the field in order to detect cattle that are or have been recently infected with trypanosomes. Developments and advantages of other diagnostic techniques, such as dip-stick assay and tests based on the polymerase chain reaction are also considered.

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It is established that the ratio between step length (SL) and step frequency (SF) is constant over a large range of walking speed. However, few data are available about the spontaneous variability of this ratio during unconstrained outdoor walking, in particular over a sufficient number of steps. The purpose of the present study was to assess the inter- and intra-subject variability of spatio-temporal gait characteristics [SL, SF and walk ratio (WR=SL/SF)] while walking at different freely selected speeds. Twelve healthy subjects walked three times along a 100-m athletic track at: (1). a slower than preferred speed, (2). preferred speed and (3). a faster than preferred speed. Two professional GPS receivers providing 3D positions assessed the walking speed and SF with high precision (less than 0.5% error). Intra-subject variability was calculated as the variation among eight consecutive 5-s samples. WR was found to be constant at preferred and fast speeds [0.41 (0.04) m.s and 0.41 (0.05) m.s respectively] but was higher at slow speeds [0.44 (0.05) m.s]. In other words, between slow and preferred speed, the speed increase was mediated more by a change in SF than SL. The intra-subject variability of WR was low under preferred [CV, coefficient of variation = 1.9 (0.6)%] and fast [CV=1.8 (0.5)%] speed conditions, but higher under low speed condition [CV=4.1 (1.5)%]. On the other hand, the inter-subject variability of WR was 11%, 10% and 12% at slow, preferred and fast walking speeds respectively. It is concluded that the GPS method is able to capture basic gait parameters over a short period of time (5 s). A specific gait pattern for slow walking was observed. Furthermore, it seems that the walking patterns in free-living conditions exhibit low intra-individual variability, but that there is substantial variability between subjects.

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The RT-PCR technique for the detection of apple stem grooving virus (ASGV), apple stem pitting virus (ASPV), apple chlorotic leaf spot virus (ACLSV), apple mosaic virus (ApMV) and pear blister canker viroid (PBCV) was evaluated for health control of fruit plants from nurseries. The technique was evaluated in purified RNA and crude extracts and also in phloem collected in autumn and from young spring shoots. The results obtained for phytoplasma detection with ribosomal and non-ribosomal primers are also presented.

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Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).

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A high-resolution three-dimensional (3-D) seismic reflection survey was conducted in Lake Geneva, near the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, as part of a project for developing such seismic techniques. Using a single 48-channel streamer, the 3-D site with an area of 1200 m x 600 m was surveyed in 10 days. A variety of complex geologic structures (e.g. thrusts, folds, channel-fill) up to similar to150 m below the water bottom were obtained with a 15 in.(3) water gun. The 3-D data allowed the construction of an accurate velocity model and the distinction of five major seismic facies within the Lower Freshwater Molasse (Aquitanian) and the Quaternary sedimentary units. Additionally, the Plateau Molasse (PM) and Subalpine Molasse (SM) erosional surface, "La Paudeze" thrust fault (PM-SM boundary) and the thickness of Quaternary sediments were accurately delineated in 3-D.

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In this work we report four different destructive and non-destructive methods for detecting picorna-like virus particles in triatomines. The methods are based on direct observation under transmission electron microscope and they consist of four ways to prepare samples of presumable infected material. The samples are prepared processing dead or alive insect parts, or even dry or fresh insect feces. The methods can be used as analytical or preparative techniques, for quantifying virus infection and checking virus integrity as well. In this work the four methods are applied in order to detect Triatoma virus (TrV) particles in T. infestans colonies.

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Analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) profiles derived from digestion of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products of the ribosomal 18S from Trypanosoma cruzi yields a typical `riboprint' profile that can vary intraspecifically. A selection of 21 stocks of T. cruzi and three outgroup taxa: T. rangeli, T. conorhini and Leishmania braziliensis were analysed by riboprinting to assess divergence within and between taxa. T. rangeli, T. conorhini and L. braziliensis could be easily differentiated from each other and from T. cruzi. Phenetic analysis of PCR-RFLP profiles indicated that, with one or two exceptions, stocks of T. cruzi could be broadly partitioned into two groups that formally corresponded to T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II respectively. To test if ribosomal 18S sequences were homogeneous within each taxon, gradient gel electrophoresis methods were employed utilising either chemical or temperature gradients. Upon interpretation of the melting profiles of riboprints and a section of the 18S independently amplified by PCR, there would appear to be at least two divergent 18S types present within T. cruzi. Heterogeneity within copies of the ribosomal 18S within a single genome has therefore been demonstrated and interestingly, this dimorphic arrangement was also present in the outgroup taxa. Presumably the ancestral duplicative event that led to the divergent 18S types preceded that of speciation within this group. These divergent 18S paralogues may have, or had, different functional pressures or rates of molecular evolution. Whether or not these divergent types are equally transcriptionally active throughout the life cycle, remain to be assessed.

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Zero correlation between measurement error and model error has been assumed in existing panel data models dealing specifically with measurement error. We extend this literature and propose a simple model where one regressor is mismeasured, allowing the measurement error to correlate with model error. Zero correlation between measurement error and model error is a special case in our model where correlated measurement error equals zero. We ask two research questions. First, we wonder if the correlated measurement error can be identified in the context of panel data. Second, we wonder if classical instrumental variables in panel data need to be adjusted when correlation between measurement error and model error cannot be ignored. Under some regularity conditions the answer is yes to both questions. We then propose a two-step estimation corresponding to the two questions. The first step estimates correlated measurement error from a reverse regression; and the second step estimates usual coefficients of interest using adjusted instruments.

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Electrophoretic studies of multilocus-enzymes (MLEE) and whole-cell protein (SDS-PAGE) were carried out in order to evaluate the parity between different methods for the characterization of five Candida species commonly isolated from oral cavity of humans by numerical taxonomy methods. The obtained data revealed that sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis is more efficient in grouping strains in their respective species while MLEE has much limited resolution in organizing all strains in their respective species-specific clusters. MLEE technique must be regarded for surveys in which just one species of Candida is involved.

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The presence of acid fast bacilli in multiple specimens was investigated comparatively with Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) and fluorescence microscopy (FM) staining in order to determine sensitivity in detecting tuberculosis (TB). A total of 465 specimens obtained from 295 patients were analysed at Harran University Medical School Hospital between March 1998 and March 2000. The culture was employed as the reference method. Sixty-eight patients (23.1%) were diagnosed as having TB by culture. The ZN and FM staining sensitivities were 67.6% (46/68) and 85.2% (58/68) respectively. Two hundred and one patients (68.1%) submitted one specimen to the laboratory. TB positivity was detected in 42 (20.9%) of these patients by culture. The sensitivities of ZN and FM stains were found to be 61% and 83% in these patients. However, in 18 patients (6.1%) who submitted two specimens to the laboratory, the TB was positive in six of them (33.3%) and ZN and FM sensitivities were 66% and 83% respectively. When three specimens or more were collected from the patients (76 patients, 25.8%), TB positivity was determined in 20 of them (26.3%) and the sensitivities were 80% and 92% in the ZN- and FM-stained smears, respectively. Our data indicate that in the diagnosis of TB, FM has greater sensitivity than ZN. In particular, in the case of a single specimen, the diagnostic value of FM is quite significant. It is, therefore, possible to conclude that both ZN and FM staining can be used for the diagnosis of TB when there are more than two specimens. However, if only one or two specimens are available, FM staining is preferable.

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In the International Olympic Committee (IOC) accredited laboratories, specific methods have been developed to detect anabolic steroids in athletes' urine. The technique of choice to achieve this is gas-chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). In order to improve the efficiency of anti-doping programmes, the laboratories have defined new analytical strategies. The final sensitivity of the analytical procedure can be improved by choosing new technologies for use in detection, such as tandem mass spectrometry (MS-MS) or high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS). A better sample preparation using immuno-affinity chromatography (IAC) is also a good tool for improving sensitivity. These techniques are suitable for the detection of synthetic anabolic steroids whose structure is not found naturally in the human body. The more and more evident use, on a large scale, of substances chemically similar to the endogenous steroids obliges both the laboratory and the sports authorities to use the steroid profile of the athlete in comparison with reference ranges from a population or with intraindividual reference values.