Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Running versus strength-based warm-up : acute effects on isometric knee extension function

This study investigated the influence of two warm-up protocols on neural and contractile parameters of knee extensors. A series of neuromuscular tests including voluntary and electrically evoked contractions were performed before and after running- (R (WU); slow running, athletic drills, and sprints) and strength-based (S (WU); bilateral 90 degrees back squats, Olympic lifting movements and reactivity exercises) warm ups (duration ~40 min) in ten-trained subjects. The estimated overall mechanical work was comparable between protocols. Maximal voluntary contraction torque (+15.6%; P < 0.01 and +10.9%; P < 0.05) and muscle activation (+10.9 and +12.9%; P < 0.05) increased to the same extent after R (WU) and S (WU), respectively. Both protocols caused a significant shortening of time to contract (-12.8 and -11.8% after R (WU) and S (WU); P < 0.05), while the other twitch parameters did not change significantly. Running- and strength-based warm ups induce similar increase in knee extensors force-generating capacity by improving the muscle activation. Both protocols have similar effects on M-wave and isometric twitch characteristics.

Expression and function of interleukin-7 in secondary and tertiary lymphoid organs.

Interleukin-7 (IL-7) is known since many years as stromal-cell derived cytokine that plays a key role for the adaptive immune system. It promotes lymphocyte development in the bone marrow and thymus as well as naive and memory T cell homeostasis in the periphery. More recently, IL-7 reporter mice and other approaches have led to the further characterization of the various stromal cell sources of IL-7 in secondary lymphoid organs (SLO) and other tissues. We will review these advances along with a discussion of the regulation of IL-7 and its receptor, and compare the biological effects IL-7 has on adaptive as well as innate immune cells in SLO. Finally, we will review the role of IL-7 in development of SLO and tertiary lymphoid tissues that frequently are associated with sites of chronic inflammation.

Solving higher-dimensional continuous time stochastic control problems by value function regression

The paper develops a method to solve higher-dimensional stochasticcontrol problems in continuous time. A finite difference typeapproximation scheme is used on a coarse grid of low discrepancypoints, while the value function at intermediate points is obtainedby regression. The stability properties of the method are discussed,and applications are given to test problems of up to 10 dimensions.Accurate solutions to these problems can be obtained on a personalcomputer.

A singular function and its relation with the number systems involved in its definition

Minkowski's ?(x) function can be seen as the confrontation of two number systems: regular continued fractions and the alternated dyadic system. This way of looking at it permits us to prove that its derivative, as it also happens for many other non-decreasing singular functions from [0,1] to [0,1], when it exists can only attain two values: zero and infinity. It is also proved that if the average of the partial quotients in the continued fraction expansion of x is greater than k* =5.31972, and ?'(x) exists then ?'(x)=0. In the same way, if the same average is less than k**=2 log2(F), where F is the golden ratio, then ?'(x)=infinity. Finally some results are presented concerning metric properties of continued fraction and alternated dyadic expansions.

Satisfaction in choice as a function of the number of alternatives: When "goods satiate" but "bads escalate"

Whereas people are typically thought to be better off with more choices, studiesshow that they often prefer to choose from small as opposed to large sets of alternatives.We propose that satisfaction from choice is an inverted U-shaped function of thenumber of alternatives. This proposition is derived theoretically by considering thebenefits and costs of different numbers of alternatives and is supported by fourexperimental studies. We also manipulate the perceptual costs of information processingand demonstrate how this affects the resulting satisfaction function. We furtherindicate that satisfaction when choosing from a given set is diminished if people aremade aware of the existence of other choice sets. The role of individual differences insatisfaction from choice is documented by noting effects due to gender and culture. Weconclude by emphasizing the need to have an explicit rationale for knowing how muchchoice is enough.

O efeito do sorriso na percepção psicológica da pessoa

O objectivo do estudo foi o de verificar o efeito do sorriso na percepção psicológica da pessoa em jovens, adultos, idosos e jovens negros. Pretendia-se verificar se o sorriso contribui para os traços diferenciais entre os grupos humanos em estudo e se o mesmo era descritor de género. O estudo envolveu um delineamento transversal analítico ou estudo não-experimental, também classificado por estudo pós-facto, estudo de observação passiva ou estudo correlacional e de observação, de comparação entre grupos, mediante o juízo ou julgamento psicológico da face neutra e do tipo de sorriso contrastados, de matriz factorial 4 x 2 x 2 (face neutra, sorriso fechado, sorriso superior, sorriso largo; género dos estímulos; género dos respondentes) e a sua finalidade foi descrever a percepção psicológica do sorriso em função das variáveis género do estímulo, género do respondente e grupo étnico, na Escala de Percepção do Sorriso (EPS), em formato diferenciador semântico, com 19 itens bipolares opostos, tendo a avaliação sido feita numa escala ordinal de 1 a 7 pontos, nas dimensões Avaliação (12 itens) e Movimento Expressivo (7 itens) resultante dos estudos preliminares sobre a atractividade facial (estudo preliminar 1) e a escolha de dípolos de adjectivos preditores para percepção psicológica da face neutra (estudo preliminar 2). Nos estudos principais 1, 2 e 3 foram utilizados 24 estímulos fotográficos apresentando o tipo de sorriso (fechado, superior e largo) e a face neutra (12 do estímulo mulher e 12 do estímulo homem) referentes aos três grupos etários (18-25 anos, 40-50 anos e 60-70 anos) e a Escala de Percepção do Sorriso (EPS) foi aplicada a uma amostra não probabilística ou intencional do tipo homogénea de 480 participantes portugueses de ambos os géneros (240 mulheres e 240 homens) distribuídos por grupos etários de jovens (80 mulheres e 80 homens, média: 22.2 anos), adultos (80 mulheres e 80 homens, média: 43.1 anos) e idosos (80 mulheres e 80 homens, média: 65.0 anos) No estudo principal 4, foram utilizados 8 estímulos fotográficos apresentando o tipo de sorriso (fechado, superior e largo) e a face neutra (4 do estímulo mulher e 4 do estímulo homem) de universitários de Cabo Verde, a estudar em Portugal, e a Escala de Percepção do Sorriso (EPS) foi aplicada a uma amostra não probabilística ou intencional do tipo homogénea de 160 participantes de ambos os géneros (80 mulheres e 80 homens) e estudantes universitários portugueses (média: 21.8 anos). Os resultados revelam e confirmam o efeito do sorriso na percepção psicológica da pessoa, à semelhança de outros estudos, isto é, sorrir torna a percepção psicológica mais positiva ou negativa e verifica-se que tal sucede em função do género do estímulo e do género do respondente. As diferenças significativas na percepção da face neutra e tipo de sorriso contrastados são justificadas pela pertença de género de quem os percepciona e pela pertença do género de quem é percepcionado. Tal apenas não sucede no factor Avaliação do grupo dos adultos. Os resultados obtidos indicam que, quer no factor Avaliação quer no factor Movimento Expressivo, os tipos de sorriso largo e superior são os que registam médias ponderadas mais elevadas. Pelo contrário, a face neutra e o sorriso fechado registam valores menos elevados na percepção. A análise da percepção da pessoa em função da face neutra e tipo de sorriso contrastados revelou uma correspondência entre a expressão facial, o género do estímulo e o género do respondente. No factor Avaliação, a mulher é percepcionada mais positivamente que o homem, verificando-se o inverso no factor Movimento Expressivo no grupo dos adultos e dos idosos. Verificou-se efeito do sorriso na percepção psicológica dos estímulos de cor negra. No grupo dos jovens que percepcionaram estímulos de cor negra, o homem é considerado mais positivo que a mulher em ambos os factores. O efeito significativo do género revela que a sua percepção é condicionada pelo seu próprio género. Os resultados apontam ainda para a configuração pronunciada de uma hierarquização ascendente da face neutra e tipo de sorriso contrastados em dois conjuntos bem delimitados e distinguindo diferentes formas topográficas de sorrir: a face neutra e o sorriso fechado e o sorriso superior e o sorriso largo.

O efeito do sorriso na percepção psicológica da pessoa

O objectivo do estudo foi o de verificar o efeito do sorriso na percepção psicológica da pessoa em jovens, adultos, idosos e jovens negros. Pretendia-se verificar se o sorriso contribui para os traços diferenciais entre os grupos humanos em estudo e se o mesmo era descritor de género. O estudo envolveu um delineamento transversal analítico ou estudo não-experimental, também classificado por estudo pós-facto, estudo de observação passiva ou estudo correlacional e de observação, de comparação entre grupos, mediante o juízo ou julgamento psicológico da face neutra e do tipo de sorriso contrastados, de matriz factorial 4 x 2 x 2 (face neutra, sorriso fechado, sorriso superior, sorriso largo; género dos estímulos; género dos respondentes) e a sua finalidade foi descrever a percepção psicológica do sorriso em função das variáveis género do estímulo, género do respondente e grupo étnico, na Escala de Percepção do Sorriso (EPS), em formato diferenciador semântico, com 19 itens bipolares opostos, tendo a avaliação sido feita numa escala ordinal de 1 a 7 pontos, nas dimensões Avaliação (12 itens) e Movimento Expressivo (7 itens) resultante dos estudos preliminares sobre a atractividade facial (estudo preliminar 1) e a escolha de dípolos de adjectivos preditores para percepção psicológica da face neutra (estudo preliminar 2). Nos estudos principais 1, 2 e 3 foram utilizados 24 estímulos fotográficos apresentando o tipo de sorriso (fechado, superior e largo) e a face neutra (12 do estímulo mulher e 12 do estímulo homem) referentes aos três grupos etários (18-25 anos, 40-50 anos e 60-70 anos) e a Escala de Percepção do Sorriso (EPS) foi aplicada a uma amostra não probabilística ou intencional do tipo homogénea de 480 participantes portugueses de ambos os géneros (240 mulheres e 240 homens) distribuídos por grupos etários de jovens (80 mulheres e 80 homens, média: 22.2 anos), adultos (80 mulheres e 80 homens, média: 43.1 anos) e idosos (80 mulheres e 80 homens, média: 65.0 anos) No estudo principal 4, foram utilizados 8 estímulos fotográficos apresentando o tipo de sorriso (fechado, superior e largo) e a face neutra (4 do estímulo mulher e 4 do estímulo homem) de universitários de Cabo Verde, a estudar em Portugal, e a Escala de Percepção do Sorriso (EPS) foi aplicada a uma amostra não probabilística ou intencional do tipo homogénea de 160 participantes de ambos os géneros (80 mulheres e 80 homens) e estudantes universitários portugueses (média: 21.8 anos). Os resultados revelam e confirmam o efeito do sorriso na percepção psicológica da pessoa, à semelhança de outros estudos, isto é, sorrir torna a percepção psicológica mais positiva ou negativa e verifica-se que tal sucede em função do género do estímulo e do género do respondente. As diferenças significativas na percepção da face neutra e tipo de sorriso contrastados são justificadas pela pertença de género de quem os percepciona e pela pertença do género de quem é percepcionado. Tal apenas não sucede no factor Avaliação do grupo dos adultos. Os resultados obtidos indicam que, quer no factor Avaliação quer no factor Movimento Expressivo, os tipos de sorriso largo e superior são os que registam médias ponderadas mais elevadas. Pelo contrário, a face neutra e o sorriso fechado registam valores menos elevados na percepção. A análise da percepção da pessoa em função da face neutra e tipo de sorriso contrastados revelou uma correspondência entre a expressão facial, o género do estímulo e o género do respondente. No factor Avaliação, a mulher é percepcionada mais positivamente que o homem, verificando-se o inverso no factor Movimento Expressivo no grupo dos adultos e dos idosos. Verificou-se efeito do sorriso na percepção psicológica dos estímulos de cor negra. No grupo dos jovens que percepcionaram estímulos de cor negra, o homem é considerado mais positivo que a mulher em ambos os factores. O efeito significativo do género revela que a sua percepção é condicionada pelo seu próprio género. Os resultados apontam ainda para a configuração pronunciada de uma hierarquização ascendente da face neutra e tipo de sorriso contrastados em dois conjuntos bem delimitados e distinguindo diferentes formas topográficas de sorrir: a face neutra e o sorriso fechado e o sorriso superior e o sorriso largo.

A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

Cost efficiency in primary care contracting: A stochastic frontier cost function approach

The principal aim of this paper is to estimate a stochastic frontier costfunction and an inefficiency effects model in the analysis of the primaryhealth care services purchased by the public authority and supplied by 180providers in 1996 in Catalonia. The evidence from our sample does not supportthe premise that contracting out has helped improve purchasing costefficiency in primary care. Inefficient purchasing cost was observed in thecomponent of this purchasing cost explicitly included in the contract betweenpurchaser and provider. There are no observable incentives for thecontracted-out primary health care teams to minimise prescription costs, whichare not explicitly included in the present contracting system.

A new light on Minkowski's? $(x)$ function

The well--known Minkowski's? $(x)$ function is presented as the asymptotic distribution function of an enumeration of the rationals in (0,1] based on their continued fraction representation. Besides, the singularity of ?$(x)$ is clearly proved in two ways: by exhibiting a set of measure one in which ?ï$(x)$ = 0; and again by actually finding a set of measure one which is mapped onto a set of measure zero and viceversa. These sets are described by means of metrical properties of different systems for real number representation.

Glutamine Stimulates Biosynthesis and Secretion of Insulin-like Growth Factor 2 (IGF2), an Autocrine Regulator of Beta Cell Mass and Function.

IGF2 is an autocrine ligand for the beta cell IGF1R receptor and GLP-1 increases the activity of this autocrine loop by enhancing IGF1R expression, a mechanism that mediates the trophic effects of GLP-1 on beta cell mass and function. Here, we investigated the regulation of IGF2 biosynthesis and secretion. We showed that glutamine rapidly and strongly induced IGF2 mRNA translation using reporter constructs transduced in MIN6 cells and primary islet cells. This was followed by rapid secretion of IGF2 via the regulated pathway, as revealed by the presence of mature IGF2 in insulin granule fractions and by inhibition of secretion by nimodipine and diazoxide. When maximally stimulated by glutamine, the amount of secreted IGF2 rapidly exceeded its initial intracellular pool and tolbutamide, and high K(+) increased IGF2 secretion only marginally. This indicates that the intracellular pool of IGF2 is small and that sustained secretion requires de novo synthesis. The stimulatory effect of glutamine necessitates its metabolism but not mTOR activation. Finally, exposure of insulinomas or beta cells to glutamine induced Akt phosphorylation, an effect that was dependent on IGF2 secretion, and reduced cytokine-induced apoptosis. Thus, glutamine controls the activity of the beta cell IGF2/IGF1R autocrine loop by increasing the biosynthesis and secretion of IGF2. This autocrine loop can thus integrate changes in feeding and metabolic state to adapt beta cell mass and function.

Abnormal Lung Function and Risk for Heart Failure in the Elderly: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with increased risk for heart failure (HF). The impact of subclinical abnormal spirometric findings on HF risk among older adults without history of COPD is not well elucidated. Methods: We evaluated 2125 participants (age 73.6±2.9 years; 50.5% men; 62.3% white; 45.6/9.4% past/current smokers; body mass index [BMI] 27.2±4.6 kg/m2) without prevalent COPD or HF who underwent baseline spirometry in the Health ABC Study. Abnormal lung function was defined either as forced vital capacity (FVC) below lower limit of normal (LLN) or forced expiratory volume in 1st sec (FEV1) to FVC ratio below LLN. Results: On follow-up (median, 9.4 years), 68 of 350 (19.4%) participants with abnormal lung function developed HF, as compared to 172 of 1775 (9.7%) participants with normal lung function (hazard ratio [HR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74 -3.06; P<.001). This increased risk persisted after adjusting for all other independent predictors of HF in the Health ABC Study, BMI, incident coronary events, and several inflammatory markers (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.30 -2.54; P<.001), and remained constant over time. Baseline FVC and FEV1 had a linear association with HF risk (Figure). In adjusted models, HF risk increased by 21% (95% CI, 10 -36%) per 10% decrease in FVC and 18% (95% CI, 10 -28%) per 10% decrease in FEV1 (both P<.001); this association persisted among participants with normal lung function at baseline. Findings were consistent across sex, race, and smoking status. Conclusions: Subclinical abnormal spirometric findings are prevalent among older adults and are independently associated with risk for incident HF.

Identification of an agrin mutation that causes congenital myasthenia and affects synapse function.

We report the case of a congenital myasthenic syndrome due to a mutation in AGRN, the gene encoding agrin, an extracellular matrix molecule released by the nerve and critical for formation of the neuromuscular junction. Gene analysis identified a homozygous missense mutation, c.5125G>C, leading to the p.Gly1709Arg variant. The muscle-biopsy specimen showed a major disorganization of the neuromuscular junction, including changes in the nerve-terminal cytoskeleton and fragmentation of the synaptic gutters. Experiments performed in nonmuscle cells or in cultured C2C12 myotubes and using recombinant mini-agrin for the mutated and the wild-type forms showed that the mutated form did not impair the activation of MuSK or change the total number of induced acetylcholine receptor aggregates. A solid-phase assay using the dystrophin glycoprotein complex showed that the mutation did not affect the binding of agrin to alpha-dystroglycan. Injection of wild-type or mutated agrin into rat soleus muscle induced the formation of nonsynaptic acetylcholine receptor clusters, but the mutant protein specifically destabilized the endogenous neuromuscular junctions. Importantly, the changes observed in rat muscle injected with mutant agrin recapitulated the pre- and post-synaptic modifications observed in the patient. These results indicate that the mutation does not interfere with the ability of agrin to induce postsynaptic structures but that it dramatically perturbs the maintenance of the neuromuscular junction.

Regulation of endothelial cell integrin function and angiogenesis by COX-2, cAMP and Protein Kinase A.

Angiogenesis, the development of new blood vessels from preexisting vessels, is a key step in tumor growth, invasion and metastasis formation. Inhibition of tumor angiogenesis is considered as an attractive approach to suppress cancer progression and spreading. Adhesion receptors of the integrin family promote tumor angiogenesis by mediating cell migration, proliferation and survival of angiogenic endothelial cells. Integrins up regulated and highly expressed on neovascular endothelial cells, such as alphaVbeta3 and alpha5beta1, have been considered as relevant targets for anti-angiogenic therapies. Small molecular integrin antagonists or blocking antibodies suppress angiogenesis and tumor progression in many animal models, and some of them are currently being tested in cancer clinical trials as anti-angiogenic agents. COX-2 inhibitors exert anti-cancer effects, at least in part, by inhibiting tumor angiogenesis. We have recently shown that COX-2 inhibitors suppress endothelial cell migration and angiogenesis by preventing alphaVbeta3-mediated and cAMP/PKA-dependent activation of the small GTPases Rac and Cdc42. Here we will review the evidence for the involvement of vascular integrins in mediating angiogenesis and the role of COX-2 metabolites in modulating the cAMP/Protein Kinase A pathway and alphaVbeta3-dependent Rac activation in endothelial cells.