Is the consumption-income ratio stationary? Evidence from linear and nonlinear panel unit root tests for OECD and non-OECD countries

This paper applies recently developed heterogeneous nonlinear and linear panel unit root tests that account for cross-sectional dependence to 24 OECD and 33 non-OECD countries’ consumption-income ratios over the period 1951–2003. We apply a recently developed methodology that facilitates the use of panel tests to identify which individual cross-sectional units are stationary and which are nonstationary. This extends evidence provided in the recent literature to consider both linear and nonlinear adjustment in panel unit root tests, to address the issue of cross-sectional dependence, and to substantially expand both time-series and cross sectional dimensions of the data analysed. We find that the majority (65%) of the series are nonstationary with slightly fewer OECD countries’ (61%) series exhibiting a unit root than non-OECD countries (68%).

Rapid diagnostic tests for non-malarial febrile illness in the tropics.

The recent roll-out of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria has highlighted the decreasing proportion of malaria-attributable illness in endemic areas. Unfortunately, once malaria is excluded, there are few accessible diagnostic tools to guide the management of severe febrile illnesses in low resource settings. This review summarizes the current state of RDT development for several key infections, including dengue fever, enteric fever, leptospirosis, brucellosis, visceral leishmaniasis and human African trypanosomiasis, and highlights many remaining gaps. Most RDTs for non-malarial tropical infections currently rely on the detection of host antibodies against a single infectious agent. The sensitivity and specificity of host-antibody detection tests are both inherently limited. Moreover, prolonged antibody responses to many infections preclude the use of most serological RDTs for monitoring response to treatment and/or for diagnosing relapse. Considering these limitations, there is a pressing need for sensitive pathogen-detection-based RDTs, as have been successfully developed for malaria and dengue. Ultimately, integration of RDTs into a validated syndromic approach to tropical fevers is urgently needed. Related research priorities are to define the evolving epidemiology of fever in the tropics, and to determine how combinations of RDTs could be best used to improve the management of severe and treatable infections requiring specific therapy.

Simulation-Based Finite and Large Sample Tests in Multivariate Regressions.

In the context of multivariate linear regression (MLR) models, it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing exact tests of possibly nonlinear hypotheses on the coefficients of MLR systems. For the case of uniform linear hypotheses, we present exact distributional invariance results concerning several standard test criteria. These include Wilks' likelihood ratio (LR) criterion as well as trace and maximum root criteria. The normality assumption is not necessary for most of the results to hold. Implications for inference are two-fold. First, invariance to nuisance parameters entails that the technique of Monte Carlo tests can be applied on all these statistics to obtain exact tests of uniform linear hypotheses. Second, the invariance property of the latter statistic is exploited to derive general nuisance-parameter-free bounds on the distribution of the LR statistic for arbitrary hypotheses. Even though it may be difficult to compute these bounds analytically, they can easily be simulated, hence yielding exact bounds Monte Carlo tests. Illustrative simulation experiments show that the bounds are sufficiently tight to provide conclusive results with a high probability. Our findings illustrate the value of the bounds as a tool to be used in conjunction with more traditional simulation-based test methods (e.g., the parametric bootstrap) which may be applied when the bounds are not conclusive.

Semi-Parametric Weak Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-Return Trade-off

Recent work shows that a low correlation between the instruments and the included variables leads to serious inference problems. We extend the local-to-zero analysis of models with weak instruments to models with estimated instruments and regressors and with higher-order dependence between instruments and disturbances. This makes this framework applicable to linear models with expectation variables that are estimated non-parametrically. Two examples of such models are the risk-return trade-off in finance and the impact of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity. Results show that inference based on Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests is more robust to weak instruments than Wald-based inference. Using LM confidence intervals leads us to conclude that no statistically significant risk premium is present in returns on the S&P 500 index, excess holding yields between 6-month and 3-month Treasury bills, or in yen-dollar spot returns.

Beyond Panel Unit Root Tests: Using Multiple Testing to Determine the Non Stationarity Properties of Individual Series in a Panel

Most panel unit root tests are designed to test the joint null hypothesis of a unit root for each individual series in a panel. After a rejection, it will often be of interest to identify which series can be deemed to be stationary and which series can be deemed nonstationary. Researchers will sometimes carry out this classification on the basis of n individual (univariate) unit root tests based on some ad hoc significance level. In this paper, we demonstrate how to use the false discovery rate (FDR) in evaluating I(1)=I(0) classifications based on individual unit root tests when the size of the cross section (n) and time series (T) dimensions are large. We report results from a simulation experiment and illustrate the methods on two data sets.

Efficient Watermarking Schemes for Speaker Verification Guaranteeing Non-repudiation

Presently different audio watermarking methods are available; most of them inclined towards copyright protection and copy protection. This is the key motive for the notion to develop a speaker verification scheme that guar- antees non-repudiation services and the thesis is its outcome. The research presented in this thesis scrutinizes the field of audio water- marking and the outcome is a speaker verification scheme that is proficient in addressing issues allied to non-repudiation to a great extent. This work aimed in developing novel audio watermarking schemes utilizing the fun- damental ideas of Fast-Fourier Transform (FFT) or Fast Walsh-Hadamard Transform (FWHT). The Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) the best parametric representation of the acoustic signals along with few other key acoustic characteristics is employed in crafting of new schemes. The au- dio watermark created is entirely dependent to the acoustic features, hence named as FeatureMark and is crucial in this work. In any watermarking scheme, the quality of the extracted watermark de- pends exclusively on the pre-processing action and in this work framing and windowing techniques are involved. The theme non-repudiation provides immense significance in the audio watermarking schemes proposed in this work. Modification of the signal spectrum is achieved in a variety of ways by selecting appropriate FFT/FWHT coefficients and the watermarking schemes were evaluated for imperceptibility, robustness and capacity char- acteristics. The proposed schemes are unequivocally effective in terms of maintaining the sound quality, retrieving the embedded FeatureMark and in terms of the capacity to hold the mark bits. Robust nature of these marking schemes is achieved with the help of syn- chronization codes such as Barker Code with FFT based FeatureMarking scheme and Walsh Code with FWHT based FeatureMarking scheme. An- other important feature associated with this scheme is the employment of an encryption scheme towards the preparation of its FeatureMark that scrambles the signal features that helps to keep the signal features unreve- laed. A comparative study with the existing watermarking schemes and the ex- periments to evaluate imperceptibility, robustness and capacity tests guar- antee that the proposed schemes can be baselined as efficient audio water- marking schemes. The four new digital audio watermarking algorithms in terms of their performance are remarkable thereby opening more opportu- nities for further research.

A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We test whether there are nonlinearities in the response of short- and long-term interest rates to the spread in interest rates, and assess the out-of-sample predictability of interest rates using linear and nonlinear models. We find strong evidence of nonlinearities in the response of interest rates to the spread. Nonlinearities are shown to result in more accurate short-horizon forecasts, especially of the spread.

Tests of non-linearity using LIFFE futures transactions price data

This paper presents and implements a number of tests for non-linear dependence and a test for chaos using transactions prices on three LIFFE futures contracts: the Short Sterling interest rate contract, the Long Gilt government bond contract, and the FTSE 100 stock index futures contract. While previous studies of high frequency futures market data use only those transactions which involve a price change, we use all of the transaction prices on these contracts whether they involve a price change or not. Our results indicate irrefutable evidence of non-linearity in two of the three contracts, although we find no evidence of a chaotic process in any of the series. We are also able to provide some indications of the effect of the duration of the trading day on the degree of non-linearity of the underlying contract. The trading day for the Long Gilt contract was extended in August 1994, and prior to this date there is no evidence of any structure in the return series. However, after the extension of the trading day we do find evidence of a non-linear return structure.

Remarks on Parametric Surface Waves in a Nonlinear and Non-Ideally Excited Tank

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Characterization of micro-bubble size distribution and flow configuration in DAF contact zone by a non-intrusive image analysis system and tracer tests

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Internal standard for amorphous pharmaceuticals products quantification and an application of Parametric Rietveld refinement using time, temperature and relative humidity as 'non-crystallographic' parameters

Pós-graduação em Química - IQ

Reliability in kimono grip strength tests and comparison between elite and non-elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu players

Background and Study Aim: The grip strength endurance is important for Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ). Thus, the aims of this study were: a) to test the reliability of two kimono grip strength tests named maximum static lift (MSL) and maximum number of repetitions (MNR) and b) to examine differences between elite and non-elite BJJ players in these tests. Material/Methods: Thirty BJJ players participated into two phases: "A" to test reliability and "B" to compare elite and non-elite. In phase A, twenty participants performed the MSL and, 15 min later, the MNR in two occasions with 24-h interval. In phase B, ten other BJJ practitioners (non-elite) and ten athletes (elite) performed the same tests. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) two way fixed model (3,1), Bland-Altman plot and the limits of agreement were used to test reliability, correlation between the tests were evaluated by Pearson correlations and independent T test (P<0.05) was utilized to compare elite vs. non-elite. Results: The ICC was high for repeated measurements on different days of phase A (MSL: r=0.99 and MNR: r=0.97). Limits of agreement for time of suspension were -6.9 to 2.4-s, with a mean difference of -2.3 s (CI: -3.3 to -1.2-s), while for number of repetitions the limits of agreement were -2.9 to 2.3-rep, with a mean difference of -0.3-rep (CI: -0.9 to 0.3-rep). In phase B, elite presented better performance for both tests (P<0.05) compared to non-elite (56 +/- 10-s vs. 37 +/- 11-s in MSL and 15 +/- 4-rep vs. 8 +/- 3-rep in MNR). Moderate correlation were found between MSL and MNR for absolute values during test (r=0.475; p=0.034), and retest phases (r=0.489; p=0.029), while moderate and high correlations in the test (r=0.615; p=0.004) and retest phases (r=0.716; p=0.001) were found for relative values, respectively. Conclusions: These proposed tests are reliable and both static and dynamic grip strength endurance tests seem to differentiate BJJ athletes from different levels.

Remarks on Parametric Surface Waves in a Nonlinear and Non-Ideally Excited Tank

We studied free surface oscillations of a fluid in a cylinder tank excited by an electric motor with limited power supply. We investigated the possibility of parametric resonance in this system, showing that the excitation mechanism can generate chaotic response. Numerical experiments are carried out to present the existence of several types of regular and chaotic attractors. For the first time powers (power of the motor, power consumed by the damping force under fluid free surface oscillations, and a total power) are calculated, investigated, and shown for different regimes, regular and chaotic ones for parametric resonance interactions. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4005844]