Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Inertial behavior of offshore devices

In the last years, there has been a continued growth in the number of offshore operations for handling large equipment and objects, with emphasis on installation and maintenance of devices for exploiting marine renewable energy like generators for harnessing wind, waves and currents energy. Considering the behaviour of these devices during manoeuvrings, and due to their size and by the interaction with the surrounding fluid, the effect of inertial forces and torques is very important, which requires a specific modelling. This paper especially discusses the masses and moments of inertia modelling problem, with the aim to use it in the simulation of the complex manoeuvres of these devices and in the automatic control systems designed for their offshore operations. Given the importance and complexity of the added mass modelling, a method for its early design identification, developed by the R&D Group on Marine Renewable Energy Technologies of the UPM (GITERM) and its use on special cases like emersion manoeuvres of devices from underwater to the surface will be presented.

Wind tunnel study on the influence of different parapets on the roof pressure distribution of low-rise buildings

High suction loads appear on roofs of low-height buildings. The use of parapets with appropriate height at the roof edges alleviates these loads. The performance of six parapet configurations to decrease the suction loads induced on roofs by oblique winds has been studied in a low speed wind tunnel. The studied parapet configurations include vertical wall parapets, either solid or porous, and cantilevered parapets formed by a small horizontal roof close to the building roof. Low-height parapets with a medium porosity and cantilevered parapets are more efficient than solid parapets to reduce the wind suctions generated on the roofs by conical vortices.

Influence of an upstream building on the wind-induced mean suction on the flat roof of a low-rise building

The effect of an upstream building on the suction forces on the flat roof of a low-rise building placed in the wake of the former is analyzed. The analysis has been performed by wind tunnel testing of a flat roof, low-rise building model equipped with pressure taps on the roof and different block-type buildings (only configurations where the upstream building is as high or higher than the downstream one are considered in this paper). The influence of the distance between both buildings on the wind loads on the downstream building roof is analyzed, as well as the height of the upstream one and the wind angle of incidence. Experimental results reveal that the wind load increases as the relative height of the upstream building increases, the wind load being highest for intermediate distances between buildings, when a passage between them is formed.

Real-time determination of airspace wind speed field based on FDR = Determinación en tiempo real del campo de velocidad del viento basado en registradores de datos de vuelo

El estudio del comportamiento de la atmósfera ha resultado de especial importancia tanto en el programa SESAR como en NextGen, en los que la gestión actual del tránsito aéreo (ATM) está experimentando una profunda transformación hacia nuevos paradigmas tanto en Europa como en los EE.UU., respectivamente, para el guiado y seguimiento de las aeronaves en la realización de rutas más eficientes y con mayor precisión. La incertidumbre es una característica fundamental de los fenómenos meteorológicos que se transfiere a la separación de las aeronaves, las trayectorias de vuelo libres de conflictos y a la planificación de vuelos. En este sentido, el viento es un factor clave en cuanto a la predicción de la futura posición de la aeronave, por lo que tener un conocimiento más profundo y preciso de campo de viento reducirá las incertidumbres del ATC. El objetivo de esta tesis es el desarrollo de una nueva técnica operativa y útil destinada a proporcionar de forma adecuada y directa el campo de viento atmosférico en tiempo real, basada en datos de a bordo de la aeronave, con el fin de mejorar la predicción de las trayectorias de las aeronaves. Para lograr este objetivo se ha realizado el siguiente trabajo. Se han descrito y analizado los diferentes sistemas de la aeronave que proporcionan las variables necesarias para obtener la velocidad del viento, así como de las capacidades que permiten la presentación de esta información para sus aplicaciones en la gestión del tráfico aéreo. Se ha explorado el uso de aeronaves como los sensores de viento en un área terminal para la estimación del viento en tiempo real con el fin de mejorar la predicción de las trayectorias de aeronaves. Se han desarrollado métodos computacionalmente eficientes para estimar las componentes horizontales de la velocidad del viento a partir de las velocidades de las aeronaves (VGS, VCAS/VTAS), la presión y datos de temperatura. Estos datos de viento se han utilizado para estimar el campo de viento en tiempo real utilizando un sistema de procesamiento de datos a través de un método de mínima varianza. Por último, se ha evaluado la exactitud de este procedimiento para que esta información sea útil para el control del tráfico aéreo. La información inicial proviene de una muestra de datos de Registradores de Datos de Vuelo (FDR) de aviones que aterrizaron en el aeropuerto Madrid-Barajas. Se dispuso de datos de ciertas aeronaves durante un periodo de más de tres meses que se emplearon para calcular el vector viento en cada punto del espacio aéreo. Se utilizó un modelo matemático basado en diferentes métodos de interpolación para obtener los vectores de viento en áreas sin datos disponibles. Se han utilizado tres escenarios concretos para validar dos métodos de interpolación: uno de dos dimensiones que trabaja con ambas componentes horizontales de forma independiente, y otro basado en el uso de una variable compleja que relaciona ambas componentes. Esos métodos se han probado en diferentes escenarios con resultados dispares. Esta metodología se ha aplicado en un prototipo de herramienta en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente los datos de FDR y determinar el campo vectorial del viento que encuentra la aeronave al volar en el espacio aéreo en estudio. Finalmente se han obtenido las condiciones requeridas y la precisión de los resultados para este modelo. El método desarrollado podría utilizar los datos de los aviones comerciales como inputs utilizando los datos actualmente disponibles y la capacidad computacional, para proporcionárselos a los sistemas ATM donde se podría ejecutar el método propuesto. Estas velocidades del viento calculadas, o bien la velocidad respecto al suelo y la velocidad verdadera, se podrían difundir, por ejemplo, a través del sistema de direccionamiento e informe para comunicaciones de aeronaves (ACARS), mensajes de ADS-B o Modo S. Esta nueva fuente ayudaría a actualizar la información del viento suministrada en los productos aeronáuticos meteorológicos (PAM), informes meteorológicos de aeródromos (AIRMET), e información meteorológica significativa (SIGMET). ABSTRACT The study of the atmosphere behaviour is been of particular importance both in SESAR and NextGen programs, where the current air traffic management (ATM) system is undergoing a profound transformation to the new paradigms both in Europe and the USA, respectively, to guide and track aircraft more precisely on more efficient routes. Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather phenomena which is transferred to separation assurance, flight path de-confliction and flight planning applications. In this respect, the wind is a key factor regarding the prediction of the future position of the aircraft, so that having a deeper and accurate knowledge of wind field will reduce ATC uncertainties. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a new and operationally useful technique intended to provide adequate and direct real-time atmospheric winds fields based on on-board aircraft data, in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction. In order to achieve this objective the following work has been accomplished. The different sources in the aircraft systems that provide the variables needed to derivate the wind velocity have been described and analysed, as well as the capabilities which allow presenting this information for air traffic management applications. The use of aircraft as wind sensors in a terminal area for real-time wind estimation in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction has been explored. Computationally efficient methods have been developed to estimate horizontal wind components from aircraft velocities (VGS, VCAS/VTAS), pressure, and temperature data. These wind data were utilized to estimate a real-time wind field using a data processing approach through a minimum variance method. Finally, the accuracy of this procedure has been evaluated for this information to be useful to air traffic control. The initial information comes from a Flight Data Recorder (FDR) sample of aircraft landing in Madrid-Barajas Airport. Data available for more than three months were exploited in order to derive the wind vector field in each point of the airspace. Mathematical model based on different interpolation methods were used in order to obtain wind vectors in void areas. Three particular scenarios were employed to test two interpolation methods: a two-dimensional one that works with both horizontal components in an independent way, and also a complex variable formulation that links both components. Those methods were tested using various scenarios with dissimilar results. This methodology has been implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyse FDR and determine the wind vector field that aircraft encounter when flying in the studied airspace. Required conditions and accuracy of the results were derived for this model. The method developed could be fed by commercial aircraft utilizing their currently available data sources and computational capabilities, and providing them to ATM system where the proposed method could be run. Computed wind velocities, or ground and true airspeeds, would then be broadcasted, for example, via the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), ADS-B out messages, or Mode S. This new source would help updating the wind information furnished in meteorological aeronautical products (PAM), meteorological aerodrome reports (AIRMET), and significant meteorological information (SIGMET).

The development of a wind tunnel DAQ system by using Labview tools

This paper presents the experimental three-year learning activity developed by a group of teachers in a wind tunnel facility. The authors, leading a team of students, carried out a project consisting of the design, assembly and testing of a wind tunnel. The project included all stages of the process from its initial specifications to its final quality flow assessments, going through the calculation of each element, and the building of the whole wind tunnel. The group of (final year) students was responsible for the whole wind tunnel project as a part of their bachelor degree project. The paper focuses on the development of wind tunnel data acquisition software. This automatic tool is essential to improve the automation of the data acquisition of the wind tunnel facility systems, in particular for a 6DOF multi-axis force/torque sensor. This work can be considered as a typical example of real engineering practice: a set of specifications that has to be modified due to the constraints imposed throughout the project, in order to obtain the final result

Characterisation of the operation & maintenance phase in PV rural electrification programmes

Con 1.300 millones de personas en el mundo sin acceso a la electricidad (la mayoría en entornos rurales de países empobrecidos), la energía solar fotovoltaica constituye una solución viable técnica y económicamente para electrificar las zonas más remotas del planeta donde las redes eléctricas convencionales no llegan. Casi todos los países en el mundo han desarrollado algún tipo de programa de electrificación fotovoltaica rural durante los últimos 40 años, principalmente los países más pobres, donde a través de diferentes modelos de financiación, se han instalado millones de sistemas solares domiciliarios (pequeños sistemas fotovoltaicos para uso doméstico). Durante este largo período, se han ido superando muchas barreras, como la mejora de la calidad de los sistemas fotovoltaicos, la reducción de costes, la optimización del diseño y del dimensionado de los sistemas, la disponibilidad financiera para implantar programas de electrificación rural, etc. Gracias a esto, la electrificación rural descentralizada ha experimentado recientemente un salto de escala caracterizada por la implantación de grandes programas con miles de sistemas solares domiciliarios e integrando largos períodos de mantenimiento. Muchos de estos grandes programas se están llevando a cabo con limitado éxito, ya que generalmente parten de supuestos e hipótesis poco contrastadas con la realidad, comprometiendo así un retorno económico que permita el desarrollo de esta actividad a largo plazo. En este escenario surge un nuevo reto: el de cómo garantizar la sostenibilidad de los grandes programas de electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Se argumenta que la principal causa de esta falta de rentabilidad es el imprevisto alto coste de la fase de operación y mantenimiento. Cuestiones clave tales como la estructura de costes de operación y mantenimiento o la fiabilidad de los componentes del sistema fotovoltaico no están bien caracterizados hoy en día. Esta situación limita la capacidad de diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento capaces de asegurar la sostenibilidad y la rentabilidad del servicio de operación y mantenimiento en estos programas. Esta tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo responder a estas cuestiones. Se ha realizado varios estudios sobre la base de un gran programa de electrificación rural fotovoltaica real llevado a cabo en Marruecos con más de 13.000 sistemas solares domiciliarios instalados. Sobre la base de este programa se ha hecho una evaluación en profundidad de la fiabilidad de los sistemas solares a partir de los datos de mantenimiento recogidos durante 5 años con más de 80.000 inputs. Los resultados han permitido establecer las funciones de fiabilidad de los equipos tal y como se comportan en condiciones reales de operación, las tasas de fallos y los tiempos medios hasta el fallo para los principales componentes del sistema, siendo este el primer caso de divulgación de resultados de este tipo en el campo de la electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Los dos principales componentes del sistema solar domiciliario, la batería y el módulo fotovoltaico, han sido analizados en campo a través de una muestra de 41 sistemas trabajando en condiciones reales pertenecientes al programa solar marroquí. Por un lado se ha estudiado la degradación de la capacidad de las baterías y por otro la degradación de potencia de los módulos fotovoltaicos. En el caso de las baterías, los resultados nos han permitido caracterizar la curva de degradación en capacidad llegando a obtener una propuesta de nueva definición del umbral de vida útil de las baterías en electrificación rural. También sobre la base del programa solar de Marruecos se ha llevado a cabo un estudio de caracterización de los costes reales de operación y mantenimiento a partir de la base de datos de contabilidad del programa registrados durante 5 años. Los resultados del estudio han permitido definir cuáles son costes que más incidencia tienen en el coste global. Se han obtenido los costes unitarios por sistema instalado y se han calculado los montantes de las cuotas de mantenimiento de los usuarios para garantizar la rentabilidad de la operación y mantenimiento. Finalmente, se propone un modelo de optimización matemática para diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento basado en los resultados de los estudios anteriores. La herramienta, elaborada mediante programación lineal entera mixta, se ha aplicado al programa marroquí con el fin de validar el modelo propuesto. ABSTRACT With 1,300 million people worldwide deprived of access to electricity (mostly in rural environments), photovoltaic solar energy has proven to be a cost‐effective solution and the only hope for electrifying the most remote inhabitants of the planet, where conventional electric grids do not reach because they are unaffordable. Almost all countries in the world have had some kind of rural photovoltaic electrification programme during the past 40 years, mainly the poorer countries, where through different organizational models, millions of solar home systems (small photovoltaic systems for domestic use) have been installed. During this long period, many barriers have been overcome, such as quality enhancement, cost reduction, the optimization of designing and sizing, financial availability, etc. Thanks to this, decentralized rural electrification has recently experienced a change of scale characterized by new programmes with thousands of solar home systems and long maintenance periods. Many of these large programmes are being developed with limited success, as they have generally been based on assumptions that do not correspond to reality, compromising the economic return that allows long term activity. In this scenario a new challenge emerges, which approaches the sustainability of large programmes. It is argued that the main cause of unprofitability is the unexpected high cost of the operation and maintenance of the solar systems. In fact, the lack of a paradigm in decentralized rural services has led to many private companies to carry out decentralized electrification programmes blindly. Issues such as the operation and maintenance cost structure or the reliability of the solar home system components have still not been characterized. This situation does not allow optimized maintenance structure to be designed to assure the sustainability and profitability of the operation and maintenance service. This PhD thesis aims to respond to these needs. Several studies have been carried out based on a real and large photovoltaic rural electrification programme carried out in Morocco with more than 13,000 solar home systems. An in‐depth reliability assessment has been made from a 5‐year maintenance database with more than 80,000 maintenance inputs. The results have allowed us to establish the real reliability functions, the failure rate and the main time to failure of the main components of the system, reporting these findings for the first time in the field of rural electrification. Both in‐field experiments on the capacity degradation of batteries and power degradation of photovoltaic modules have been carried out. During the experiments both samples of batteries and modules were operating under real conditions integrated into the solar home systems of the Moroccan programme. In the case of the batteries, the results have enabled us to obtain a proposal of definition of death of batteries in rural electrification. A cost assessment of the Moroccan experience based on a 5‐year accounting database has been carried out to characterize the cost structure of the programme. The results have allowed the major costs of the photovoltaic electrification to be defined. The overall cost ratio per installed system has been calculated together with the necessary fees that users would have to pay to make the operation and maintenance affordable. Finally, a mathematical optimization model has been proposed to design maintenance structures based on the previous study results. The tool has been applied to the Moroccan programme with the aim of validating the model.

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Pedestrian wind comfort: feasibility study of criteria homogenisation

One of the aims of COST C14 action is the assessment and evaluation of pedestrian wind comfort. At present there is no general rule available that is applied across Europe. There are several criteria that have been developed and applied in different countries. These criteria are based on the definition of two independent parameters, a threshold effective wind speed and a probability of exceedence of this threshold speed. The difficulty of the criteria comparison arises from the two-dimensional character of the criteria definition. An effort is being made to compare these criteria, trying both to find commonalities and to clearly identify differences, in order to build up the basis for the next step: to try to define common criteria (perhaps with regional and seasonal variations). The first point is to define clearly the threshold effective wind speed (mean velocity definition parameters: averaging interval and reference height) and equivalence between different ways of defining the threshold effective wind speed (mean wind speed, gust equivalent mean, etc.) in comparable terms (as far as possible). It can be shown that if the wind speed at a given location is defined in terms of a probability distribution, e.g. Weibull function, a given criterion is satisfied by an infinite set of wind conditions, that is, of probability distributions. The criterion parameters and the Weibull function parameters are linked to each other, establishing a set called iso-criteria lines (the locus of the Weibull function parameters that fulfil a given criterion). The relative position of iso-criteria lines when displayed in a suitable two-dimensional plane facilitates the comparison of comfort criteria. The comparison of several wind comfort criteria, coming from several institutes is performed, showing the feasibility and limitations of the method.

The extended Betz–Lanchester limit

A proposal for an extended formulation of the power coefficient of a wind turbine is presented. This new formulation is a generalization of the Betz–Lanchester expression for the power coefficient as function of the axial deceleration of the wind speed provoked by the wind turbine in operation. The extended power coefficient takes into account the benefits of the power produced and the cost associated to the production of this energy. By the simple model proposed is evidenced that the purely energetic optimum operation condition giving rise to the Betz–Lanchester limit (maximum energy produced) does not coincide with the global optimum operational condition (maximum benefit generated) if cost of energy and degradation of the wind turbine during operation is considered. The new extended power coefficient is a general parameter useful to define global optimum operation conditions for wind turbines, considering not only the energy production but also the maintenance cost and the economic cost associated to the life reduction of the machine.

Improvement of theoretical storm characterization for different climate conditions

The different theoretical models related with storm wave characterization focus on determining the significant wave height of the peak storm, the mean period and, usually assuming a triangle storm shape, their duration. In some cases, the main direction is also considered. Nevertheless, definition of the whole storm history, including the variation of the main random variables during the storm cycle is not taken into consideration. The representativeness of the proposed storm models, analysed in a recent study using an empirical maximum energy flux time dependent function shows that the behaviour of the different storm models is extremely dependent on the climatic characteristics of the project area. Moreover, there are no theoretical models able to adequately reproduce storm history evolution of the sea states characterized by important swell components. To overcome this shortcoming, several theoretical storm shapes are investigated taking into consideration the bases of the three best theoretical storm models, the Equivalent Magnitude Storm (EMS), the Equivalent Number of Waves Storm (ENWS) and the Equivalent Duration Storm (EDS) models. To analyse the representativeness of the new storm shape, the aforementioned maximum energy flux formulation and a wave overtopping discharge structure function are used. With the empirical energy flux formulation, correctness of the different approaches is focussed on the progressive hydraulic stability loss of the main armour layer caused by real and theoretical storms. For the overtopping structure equation, the total volume of discharge is considered. In all cases, the results obtained highlight the greater representativeness of the triangular EMS model for sea waves and the trapezoidal (nonparallel sides) EMS model for waves with a higher degree of wave development. Taking into account the increase in offshore and shallow water wind turbines, maritime transport and deep vertical breakwaters, the maximum wave height of the whole storm history and that corresponding to each sea state belonging to its cycle's evolution is also considered. The procedure considers the information usually available for extreme waves' characterization. Extrapolations of the maximum wave height of the selected storms have also been considered. The 4th order statistics of the sea state belonging to the real and theoretical storm have been estimated to complete the statistical analysis of individual wave height

Discrete linear stability and sensitivity analysis of fluid flows

Este trabajo presenta un método discreto para el cálculo de estabilidad hidrodinámica y análisis de sensibilidad a perturbaciones externas para ecuaciones diferenciales y en particular para las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes compressible. Se utiliza una aproximación con variable compleja para obtener una precisión analítica en la evaluación de la matriz Jacobiana. Además, mapas de sensibilidad para la sensibilidad a las modificaciones del flujo de base y a una fuerza constante permiten identificar las regiones del campo fluido donde una modificacin (ej. fuerza puntual) tiene un efecto estabilizador del flujo. Se presentan cuatro casos de prueba: (1) un caso analítico para comprobar la derivación discreta, (2) una cavidad cerrada a bajo Reynolds para mostrar la mayor precisión en el cálculo de los valores propios con la aproximación de paso complejo, (3) flujo 2D en un cilindro circular para validar la metodología, y (4) flujo en un cavidad abierta, presentado para validar el método en casos de inestabilidades convectivamente inestables. Los tres últimos casos mencionados (2-4) se resolvieron con las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes compresibles, utilizando un método Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Element Method. Se obtuvo una buena concordancia para el caso de validación (3), cuando se comparó el nuevo método con resultados de la literatura. Además, este trabajo muestra que para el cálculo de los modos propios directos y adjuntos, así como para los mapas de sensibilidad, el uso de variables complejas es de suprema importancia para obtener una predicción precisa. El método descrito es aplicado al análisis para la estabilización de la estela generada por un disco actuador, que representa un modelo sencillo para hélices, rotores de helicópteros o turbinas eólicas. Se explora la primera bifurcación del flujo para un disco actuador, y se sugiere que está asociada a una inestabilidad de tipo Kelvin-Helmholtz, cuya estabilidad se controla con en el número de Reynolds y en la resistencia del disco actuador (o fuerza resistente). En primer lugar, se verifica que la disminución de la resistencia del disco tiene un efecto estabilizador parecido a una disminución del Reynolds. En segundo lugar, el análisis hidrodinmico discreto identifica dos regiones para la colocación de una fuerza puntual que controle las inestabilidades, una cerca del disco y otra en una zona aguas abajo. En tercer lugar, se muestra que la inclusión de un forzamiento localizado cerca del actuador produce una estabilización más eficiente que al forzar aguas abajo. El análisis de los campos de flujo controlados confirma que modificando el gradiente de velocidad cerca del actuador es más eficiente para estabilizar la estela. Estos resultados podrían proporcionar nuevas directrices para la estabilización de la estela de turbinas de viento o de marea cuando estén instaladas en un parque eólico y minimizar las interacciones no estacionarias entre turbinas. ABSTRACT A discrete framework for computing the global stability and sensitivity analysis to external perturbations for any set of partial differential equations is presented. In particular, a complex-step approximation is used to achieve near analytical accuracy for the evaluation of the Jacobian matrix. Sensitivity maps for the sensitivity to base flow modifications and to a steady force are computed to identify regions of the flow field where an input could have a stabilising effect. Four test cases are presented: (1) an analytical test case to prove the theory of the discrete framework, (2) a lid-driven cavity at low Reynolds case to show the improved accuracy in the calculation of the eigenvalues when using the complex-step approximation, (3) the 2D flow past a circular cylinder at just below the critical Reynolds number is used to validate the methodology, and finally, (4) the flow past an open cavity is presented to give an example of the discrete method applied to a convectively unstable case. The latter three (2–4) of the aforementioned cases were solved with the 2D compressible Navier–Stokes equations using a Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Element Method. Good agreement was obtained for the validation test case, (3), with appropriate results in the literature. Furthermore, it is shown that for the calculation of the direct and adjoint eigenmodes and their sensitivity maps to external perturbations, the use of complex variables is paramount for obtaining an accurate prediction. An analysis for stabilising the wake past an actuator disc, which represents a simple model for propellers, helicopter rotors or wind turbines is also presented. We explore the first flow bifurcation for an actuator disc and it suggests that it is associated to a Kelvin- Helmholtz type instability whose stability relies on the Reynolds number and the flow resistance applied through the disc (or actuator forcing). First, we report that decreasing the disc resistance has a similar stabilising effect to an decrease in the Reynolds number. Second, a discrete sensitivity analysis identifies two regions for suitable placement of flow control forcing, one close to the disc and one far downstream where the instability originates. Third, we show that adding a localised forcing close to the actuator provides more stabilisation that forcing far downstream. The analysis of the controlled flow fields, confirms that modifying the velocity gradient close to the actuator is more efficient to stabilise the wake than controlling the sheared flow far downstream. An interesting application of these results is to provide guidelines for stabilising the wake of wind or tidal turbines when placed in an energy farm to minimise unsteady interactions.

Mechanisms of Human Mitochondrial DNA Maintenance: The Determining Role of Primary Sequence and Length over Function

Although the regulation of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number is performed by nuclear-coded factors, very little is known about the mechanisms controlling this process. We attempted to introduce nonhuman ape mtDNA into human cells harboring either no mtDNA or mutated mtDNAs (partial deletion and tRNA gene point mutation). Unexpectedly, only cells containing no mtDNA could be repopulated with nonhuman ape mtDNA. Cells containing a defective human mtDNA did not incorporate or maintain ape mtDNA and therefore died under selection for oxidative phosphorylation function. On the other hand, foreign human mtDNA was readily incorporated and maintained in these cells. The suicidal preference for self-mtDNA showed that functional parameters associated with oxidative phosphorylation are less relevant to mtDNA maintenance and copy number control than recognition of mtDNA self-determinants. Non–self-mtDNA could not be maintained into cells with mtDNA even if no selection for oxidative phosphorylation was applied. The repopulation kinetics of several mtDNA forms after severe depletion by ethidium bromide treatment showed that replication and maintenance of mtDNA in human cells are highly dependent on molecular features, because partially deleted mtDNA molecules repopulated cells significantly faster than full-length mtDNA. Taken together, our results suggest that mtDNA copy number may be controlled by competition for limiting levels of trans-acting factors that recognize primarily mtDNA molecular features. In agreement with this hypothesis, marked variations in mtDNA levels did not affect the transcription of nuclear-coded factors involved in mtDNA replication.

Restriction-modification gene complexes as selfish gene entities: Roles of a regulatory system in their establishment, maintenance, and apoptotic mutual exclusion

We have reported some type II restriction-modification (RM) gene complexes on plasmids resist displacement by an incompatible plasmid through postsegregational host killing. Such selfish behavior may have contributed to the spread and maintenance of RM systems. Here we analyze the role of regulatory genes (C), often found linked to RM gene complexes, in their interaction with the host and the other RM gene complexes. We identified the C gene of EcoRV as a positive regulator of restriction. A C mutation eliminated postsegregational killing by EcoRV. The C system has been proposed to allow establishment of RM systems in new hosts by delaying the appearance of restriction activity. Consistent with this proposal, bacteria preexpressing ecoRVC were transformed at a reduced efficiency by plasmids carrying the EcoRV RM gene complex. Cells carrying the BamHI RM gene complex were transformed at a reduced efficiency by a plasmid carrying a PvuII RM gene complex, which shares the same C specificity. The reduction most likely was caused by chromosome cleavage at unmodified PvuII sites by prematurely expressed PvuII restriction enzyme. Therefore, association of the C genes of the same specificity with RM gene complexes of different sequence specificities can confer on a resident RM gene complex the capacity to abort establishment of a second, incoming RM gene complex. This phenomenon, termed “apoptotic mutual exclusion,” is reminiscent of suicidal defense against virus infection programmed by other selfish elements. pvuIIC and bamHIC genes define one incompatibility group of exclusion whereas ecoRVC gene defines another.

Rescue of a Wnt mutation by an activated form of LEF-1: Regulation of maintenance but not initiation of Brachyury expression

Members of the LEF-1/TCF family of transcription factors have been implicated in mediating a nuclear response to Wnt signals by association with β-catenin. Consistent with this view, mice carrying mutations in either the Wnt3a gene or in both transcription factor genes Lef1 and Tcf1 were previously found to show a similar defect in the formation of paraxial mesoderm in the gastrulating mouse embryo. In addition, mutations in the Brachyury gene, a direct transcriptional target of LEF-1, were shown to result in mesodermal defects. However, direct evidence for the role of LEF-1 and Brachyury in Wnt3a signaling has been limiting. In this study, we genetically examine the function of LEF-1 in the regulation of Brachyury expression and in signaling by Wnt3a. Analysis of the expression of Brachyury in Lef1−/−Tcf1−/− mice and studies of Brachyury:lacZ transgenes containing wild type or mutated LEF-1 binding sites indicate that Lef1 is dispensable for the initiation, but is required for the maintenance of Brachyury expression. We also show that the expression of an activated form of LEF-1, containing the β-catenin activation domain fused to the amino terminus of LEF-1, can rescue a Wnt3a mutation. Together, these data provide genetic evidence that Lef1 mediates the Wnt3a signal and regulates the stable maintenance of Brachyury expression during gastrulation.