939 resultados para Lee-Carter model


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Nonhealing wounds are a major burden for health care systems worldwide. In addition, a patient who suffers from this type of wound usually has a reduced quality of life. While the wound healing process is undoubtedly complex, in this paper we develop a deterministic mathematical model, formulated as a system of partial differential equations, that focusses on an important aspect of successful healing: oxygen supply to the wound bed by a combination of diffusion from the surrounding unwounded tissue and delivery from newly formed blood vessels. While the model equations can be solved numerically, the emphasis here is on the use of asymptotic methods to establish conditions under which new blood vessel growth can be initiated and wound-bed angiogenesis can progress. These conditions are given in terms of key model parameters including the rate of oxygen supply and its rate of consumption in the wound. We use our model to discuss the clinical use of treatments such as hyperbaric oxygen therapy, wound bed debridement, and revascularisation therapy that have the potential to initiate healing in chronic, stalled wounds.

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Aims Multi-method study including two parts: Study One: three sets of observations in two regional areas of Queensland Study Two: two sets of parent intercept interviews conducted in Toowoomba, Queensland. The aim of Study Two is to determine parents’ views, opinions and knowledge of child restraint practices and the Queensland legislative amendment.

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Background: Trauma resulting from traffic crashes poses a significant problem in highly motorised countries. Over a million people worldwide are killed annually and 50 million are critically injured as a result of traffic collisions. In Australia, road crashes cost an average of $17 billion annually in personal loss of income and quality of life, organisational losses in productivity and workplace quality, and health care costs. Driver aggression has been identified as a key factor contributing to crashes, and many motorists report experiencing mild forms of aggression (e.g., rude gestures, horn honking). However despite this concern, driver aggression has received relatively little attention in empirical research, and existing research has been hampered by a number of methodological and conceptual shortcomings. Specifically, there has been substantial disagreement regarding what constitutes aggressive driving and a failure to examine both the situational factors and the emotional and cognitive processes underlying driver aggression. To enhance current understanding of aggressive driving, a model of driver aggression that highlights the cognitive and emotional processes at play in aggressive driving incidents is proposed. Aims: The research aims to improve current understanding of the complex nature of driver aggression by testing and refining a model of aggressive driving that incorporates the person-related and situational factors and the cognitive and emotional appraisal processes fundamental to driver aggression. In doing so, the research will assist to provide a clear definition of what constitutes aggressive driving, assist to identify on-road incidents that trigger driver aggression, and identify the emotional and cognitive appraisal processes that underlie driver aggression. Methods: The research involves three studies. Firstly, to contextualise the model and explore the cognitive and emotional aspects of driver aggression, a diary-based study using self-reports of aggressive driving events will be conducted with a general population of drivers. This data will be supplemented by in-depth follow-up interviews with a sub-sample of participants. Secondly, to test generalisability of the model, a large sample of drivers will be asked to respond to video-based scenarios depicting driving contexts derived from incidents identified in Study 1 as inciting aggression. Finally, to further operationalise and test the model an advanced driving simulator will be used with sample of drivers. These drivers will be exposed to various driving scenarios that would be expected to trigger negative emotional responses. Results: Work on the project has commenced and progress on the first study will be reported.

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The improvement and optimization of business processes is one of the top priorities in an organization. Although process analysis methods are mature today, business analysts and stakeholders are still hampered by communication issues. That is, analysts cannot effectively obtain accurate business requirements from stakeholders, and stakeholders are often confused about analytic results offered by analysts. We argue that using a virtual world to model a business process can benefit communication activities. We believe that virtual worlds can be used as an efficient model-view approach, increasing the cognition of business requirements and analytic results, as well as the possibility of business plan validation. A healthcare case study is provided as an approach instance, illustrating how intuitive such an approach can be. As an exploration paper, we believe that this promising research can encourage people to investigate more research topics in the interdisciplinary area of information system, visualization and multi-user virtual worlds.

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Purpose: To explore the role of the neighborhood environment in supporting walking Design: Cross sectional study of 10,286 residents of 200 neighborhoods. Participants were selected using a stratified two-stage cluster design. Data were collected by mail survey (68.5% response rate). Setting: The Brisbane City Local Government Area, Australia, 2007. Subjects: Brisbane residents aged 40 to 65 years. Measures Environmental: street connectivity, residential density, hilliness, tree coverage, bikeways, and street lights within a one kilometer circular buffer from each resident’s home; and network distance to nearest river or coast, public transport, shop, and park. Walking: minutes in the previous week categorized as < 30 minutes, ≥ 30 < 90 minutes, ≥ 90 < 150 minutes, ≥ 150 < 300 minutes, and ≥ 300 minutes. Analysis: The association between each neighborhood characteristic and walking was examined using multilevel multinomial logistic regression and the model parameters were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Results: After adjustment for individual factors, the likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes (relative to <30 minutes) was highest in areas with the most connectivity (OR=1.93, 99% CI 1.32-2.80), the greatest residential density (OR=1.47, 99% CI 1.02-2.12), the least tree coverage (OR=1.69, 99% CI 1.13-2.51), the most bikeways (OR=1.60, 99% CI 1.16-2.21), and the most street lights (OR=1.50, 99% CI 1.07-2.11). The likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes was also higher among those who lived closest to a river or the coast (OR=2.06, 99% CI 1.41-3.02). Conclusion: The likelihood of meeting (and exceeding) physical activity recommendations on the basis of walking was higher in neighborhoods with greater street connectivity and residential density, more street lights and bikeways, closer proximity to waterways, and less tree coverage. Interventions targeting these neighborhood characteristics may lead to improved environmental quality as well as lower rates of overweight and obesity and associated chromic disease.

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Kinematic models are commonly used to quantify foot and ankle kinematics, yet no marker sets or models have been proven reliable or accurate when wearing shoes. Further, the minimal detectable difference of a developed model is often not reported. We present a kinematic model that is reliable, accurate and sensitive to describe the kinematics of the foot–shoe complex and lower leg during walking gait. In order to achieve this, a new marker set was established, consisting of 25 markers applied on the shoe and skin surface, which informed a four segment kinematic model of the foot–shoe complex and lower leg. Three independent experiments were conducted to determine the reliability, accuracy and minimal detectable difference of the marker set and model. Inter-rater reliability of marker placement on the shoe was proven to be good to excellent (ICC = 0.75–0.98) indicating that markers could be applied reliably between raters. Intra-rater reliability was better for the experienced rater (ICC = 0.68–0.99) than the inexperienced rater (ICC = 0.38–0.97). The accuracy of marker placement along each axis was <6.7 mm for all markers studied. Minimal detectable difference (MDD90) thresholds were defined for each joint; tibiocalcaneal joint – MDD90 = 2.17–9.36°, tarsometatarsal joint – MDD90 = 1.03–9.29° and the metatarsophalangeal joint – MDD90 = 1.75–9.12°. These thresholds proposed are specific for the description of shod motion, and can be used in future research designed at comparing between different footwear.

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This chapter reviews the incidence of coverage of Papua New Guinea affairs in the Australian press and in Australian broadcast media. It presents the findings of a formal monitoring of selected newspaper coverage and news broadcasts of the leading Australian television and radio outlets. The study also includes news stories published on ABC Online. The findings for print media suggest that coverage of PNG is inadequate and may be contributing towards negative images of that country in Australia. The broadcast monitoring found also that beyond the ABC's regular and balanced coverage, there was very little mention of PNG on Australian airwaves. The deployment of resources by the ABC was seen as a potential model for increased quantity and quality of coverage, with its maintenance of a correspondent and office in the country, and use of reports from PNG across a wide range of programs. The investigation noted some early indications of a shift in media attention, following the election of a new government in Australia in 2007, which gave some priority attention to PNG including a visit by the then Prime Minister.

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In gait analysis, both shoe mounted and skin mounted markers have been used to quantify the movement of the foot inside the shoe. However, these models have not been demonstrated as reliable or accurate in shod conditions. The purpose of this study was to develop an accurate and reliable marker set to describe foot-shoe complex kinematics during stance phase.

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Finite element analyses of the human body in seated postures requires digital models capable of providing accurate and precise prediction of the tissue-level response of the body in the seated posture. To achieve such models, the human anatomy must be represented with high fidelity. This information can readily be defined using medical imaging techniques such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) or Computed Tomography (CT). Current practices for constructing digital human models, based on the magnetic resonance (MR) images, in a lying down (supine) posture have reduced the error in the geometric representation of human anatomy relative to reconstructions based on data from cadaveric studies. Nonetheless, the significant differences between seated and supine postures in segment orientation, soft-tissue deformation and soft tissue strain create a need for data obtained in postures more similar to the application posture. In this study, we present a novel method for creating digital human models based on seated MR data. An adult-male volunteer was scanned in a simulated driving posture using a FONAR 0.6T upright MRI scanner with a T1 scanning protocol. To compensate for unavoidable image distortion near the edges of the study, images of the same anatomical structures were obtained in transverse and sagittal planes. Combinations of transverse and sagittal images were used to reconstruct the major anatomical features from the buttocks through the knees, including bone, muscle and fat tissue perimeters, using Solidworks® software. For each MR image, B-splines were created as contours for the anatomical structures of interest, and LOFT commands were used to interpolate between the generated Bsplines. The reconstruction of the pelvis, from MR data, was enhanced by the use of a template model generated in previous work CT images. A non-rigid registration algorithm was used to fit the pelvis template into the MR data. Additionally, MR image processing was conducted to both the left and the right sides of the model due to the intended asymmetric posture of the volunteer during the MR measurements. The presented subject-specific, three-dimensional model of the buttocks and thighs will add value to optimisation cycles in automotive seat development when used in simulating human interaction with automotive seats.

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Virtual prototyping emerges as a new technology to replace existing physical prototypes for product evaluation, which are costly and time consuming to manufacture. Virtualization technology allows engineers and ergonomists to perform virtual builds and different ergonomic analyses on a product. Digital Human Modelling (DHM) software packages such as Siemens Jack, often integrate with CAD systems to provide a virtual environment which allows investigation of operator and product compatibility. Although the integration between DHM and CAD systems allows for the ergonomic analysis of anthropometric design, human musculoskeletal, multi-body modelling software packages such as the AnyBody Modelling System (AMS) are required to support physiologic design. They provide muscular force analysis, estimate human musculoskeletal strain and help address human comfort assessment. However, the independent characteristics of the modelling systems Jack and AMS constrain engineers and ergonomists in conducting a complete ergonomic analysis. AMS is a stand alone programming system without a capability to integrate into CAD environments. Jack is providing CAD integrated human-in-the-loop capability, but without considering musculoskeletal activity. Consequently, engineers and ergonomists need to perform many redundant tasks during product and process design. Besides, the existing biomechanical model in AMS uses a simplified estimation of body proportions, based on a segment mass ratio derived scaling approach. This is insufficient to represent user populations anthropometrically correct in AMS. In addition, sub-models are derived from different sources of morphologic data and are therefore anthropometrically inconsistent. Therefore, an interface between the biomechanical AMS and the virtual human model Jack was developed to integrate a musculoskeletal simulation with Jack posture modeling. This interface provides direct data exchange between the two man-models, based on a consistent data structure and common body model. The study assesses kinematic and biomechanical model characteristics of Jack and AMS, and defines an appropriate biomechanical model. The information content for interfacing the two systems is defined and a protocol is identified. The interface program is developed and implemented through Tcl and Jack-script(Python), and interacts with the AMS console application to operate AMS procedures.

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When compared with similar joint arthroplasties, the prognosis of Total Ankle Replacement (TAR) is not satisfactory although it shows promising results post surgery. To date, most models do not provide the full anatomical functionality and biomechanical range of motion of the healthy ankle joint. This has sparked additional research and evaluation of clinical outcomes in order to enhance ankle prosthesis design. However, the limited biomechanical data that exist in literature are based upon two-dimensional, discrete and outdated techniques1 and may be inaccurate. Since accurate force estimations are crucial to prosthesis design, a paper based on a new biomechanical modeling approach, providing three dimensional forces acting on the ankle joint and the surrounding tissues was published recently, but the identified forces were suspected of being under-estimated, while muscles were . The present paper reports an attempt to improve the accuracy of the analysis by means of novel methods for kinematic processing of gait data, provided in release 4.1 of the AnyBody Modeling System (AnyBody Technology, Aalborg, Denmark) Results from the new method are shown and remaining issues are discussed.

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In information retrieval (IR) research, more and more focus has been placed on optimizing a query language model by detecting and estimating the dependencies between the query and the observed terms occurring in the selected relevance feedback documents. In this paper, we propose a novel Aspect Language Modeling framework featuring term association acquisition, document segmentation, query decomposition, and an Aspect Model (AM) for parameter optimization. Through the proposed framework, we advance the theory and practice of applying high-order and context-sensitive term relationships to IR. We first decompose a query into subsets of query terms. Then we segment the relevance feedback documents into chunks using multiple sliding windows. Finally we discover the higher order term associations, that is, the terms in these chunks with high degree of association to the subsets of the query. In this process, we adopt an approach by combining the AM with the Association Rule (AR) mining. In our approach, the AM not only considers the subsets of a query as “hidden” states and estimates their prior distributions, but also evaluates the dependencies between the subsets of a query and the observed terms extracted from the chunks of feedback documents. The AR provides a reasonable initial estimation of the high-order term associations by discovering the associated rules from the document chunks. Experimental results on various TREC collections verify the effectiveness of our approach, which significantly outperforms a baseline language model and two state-of-the-art query language models namely the Relevance Model and the Information Flow model

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It is a big challenge to acquire correct user profiles for personalized text classification since users may be unsure in providing their interests. Traditional approaches to user profiling adopt machine learning (ML) to automatically discover classification knowledge from explicit user feedback in describing personal interests. However, the accuracy of ML-based methods cannot be significantly improved in many cases due to the term independence assumption and uncertainties associated with them. This paper presents a novel relevance feedback approach for personalized text classification. It basically applies data mining to discover knowledge from relevant and non-relevant text and constraints specific knowledge by reasoning rules to eliminate some conflicting information. We also developed a Dempster-Shafer (DS) approach as the means to utilise the specific knowledge to build high-quality data models for classification. The experimental results conducted on Reuters Corpus Volume 1 and TREC topics support that the proposed technique achieves encouraging performance in comparing with the state-of-the-art relevance feedback models.

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Nowadays, Opinion Mining is getting more important than before especially in doing analysis and forecasting about customers’ behavior for businesses purpose. The right decision in producing new products or services based on data about customers’ characteristics means profit for organization/company. This paper proposes a new architecture for Opinion Mining, which uses a multidimensional model to integrate customers’ characteristics and their comments about products (or services). The key step to achieve this objective is to transfer comments (opinions) to a fact table that includes several dimensions, such as, customers, products, time and locations. This research presents a comprehensive way to calculate customers’ orientation for all possible products’ attributes. A use case study is also presented in this paper to show the advantages of using OLAP and data cubes to analyze costumers’ opinions.