Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Self-assembled gold nanofilms as a simple, recoverable and recyclable catalyst for nitro-reduction

Hexaazamacrocycle (L) stabilized gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) were prepared by combining L with HAuCl4 center dot 3H(2)O in a variety of alcohol-water (1 : 1) mixtures. The dual roles of L as a reducing and stabilizing agent were exploited for the synthesis of AuNPs under the optimized ratio of L to Au3+ (2 : 1). Self-assembled gold nanofilms (AuNFs) were constructed at liquid-liquid interfaces by adding equal volumes of hexane to the dispersions of AuNPs in the alcohol-water systems. The nanofilms were formed spontaneously by shaking the two-phase mixture for a minute followed by standing. The alcohols explored for the self-assembly phenomenon were methanol, ethanol, i-propanol and t-butanol. The systems containing methanol or t-butanol resulted in AuNFs at the interfaces, whereas the other two alcohols were found not suitable and the AuNPs remained dispersed in the corresponding alcohol-water medium. The AuNFs prepared under suitable conditions were coated on a variety of surfaces by the dip and lift-off method/solvent removal approach. The AuNFs were characterized by UV-vis, SEM, TEM, AFM and contact angle measurement techniques. A coated glass-vial or cuvette was used as a catalytic reservoir for nitro-reduction reactions under ambient and aqueous conditions using NaBH4 as the reducing agent. The reduced products (amines) were extracted by aqueous work-up using ethyl acetate followed by evaporation of the organic layer; the isolated products required no further purification. The catalyst was recovered by simply decanting the reaction mixture whereupon the isolated catalyst remained coated inside the vessel. The recovered catalyst was found to be equally efficient for further catalytic cycles.

Structure and Dynamics of Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane Confined between Mica Surfaces

Using a molecular model for octamethylcydotetrasiloxane (OMCTS), molecular dynamics simulations are carried out to probe the phase state of OMCTS confined between two mica surfaces in equilibrium With a reservoir. Molecular dynamics simulations are carried out for elevations ranging from 5 to 35 K above the melting point for the OMCTS model used in this study. The Helmholtz free energy is, computed for a specific confinement using the :two-phase thermodynamic (2PT) method. Analysis of the in-plane pair correlation functions did not reveal signatures of freezing even under an extreme confinement of two layers. OMCTS is found to orient with a wide distribution of orientations with respect to the mica surface, with a distinct preference for the surface parallel configuration in the contact layers. The self-intermediate scattering function is found to decay with increasing relaxation times as the surface separation is decreased, and the two-step relaxation in the scattering function, a signature of glassy dynamics, distinctly evolves as the temperature is lowered. However, even at 5 K above the melting point, we did not observe a freezing transition and the self-intermediate scattering functions relax within 200 ps for the seven-layered confined system. The self diffusivity and relaxation times obtained from the Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts stretched exponential fits to the late alpha-relaxation exhibit power law scalings with the packing fraction as predicted by mode coupling theory. A distinct discontinuity in the Helmholtz free energy, potential energy, and a sharp change in the local bond order parameter, Q(4), was observed at 230 K for a five-layered system upon cooling, indicative of a first-order transition. A freezing point depression of about 30 K was observed for this five-layered confined system, and at the lower temperatures, contact layers were found to be disordered with long-range order present only in the inner layers. These dynamical signatures indicate that confined OMCTS undergoes a slowdown akin to a fluid approaching a glass transition upon increasing confinement, and freezing under confinement would require substantial subcooling below the bulk melting point of OMCTS.

Temperature measurement of reflected shock wave by using chemical indicator

This report describes a new method for measuring the temperature of the gas behind the reflected shock wave in shock tube, corresponding to the reservoir temperature of a shock tunnel, based on the chemical reaction of small amount of CF4 premixed in the test gas. The final product C2F4 is used as the temperature indicator, which is sampled and detected by a gas chromatography in the experiment. The detected concentration of C2F4 is correlated to the temperature of the reflected shock wave with the initial pressure P-1 and test time tau as parameters in the temperature range 3 300 K < T < 5 600 K, pressure range 5 kPa < P1 <12 kPa and tau similar or equal to 0.4 ms.

库水浸泡后滑坡体中水分布的实验研究

建立了室内模拟库水浸泡后滑坡体内水润湿的渗流实验装置,根据清江茅坪滑坡的地形、地貌以及岩土混合比例,填制了岩土体实验模型.模拟了水位在涨至模拟坡体凌空面一半高度和水位漫过凌空面达到第一平台高度时,坡体内的水分布情况.在水位降落实验过程中,岩土体部分失稳,证明了润湿滞后在降水期滑坡中起主要作用.

清江水库茅坪滑坡监测与发展趋势预测

茅坪滑坡位于清江隔河岩水库上游北岸、距水库坝址66km处。是隔河岩水库库区中最大的基岩古滑坡体，其体积约2．35×10^7m^3。自1993年4月10日水库下闸蓄水以来，该滑坡一直产生缓慢变形。滑坡发生整体失稳，则会截断清江，形成“库中坝”，并造成灾难性的恶果。为此，全面掌握该滑坡的变化发展趋势对今后进行防治决策具有十分重要的意义。掌握滑坡发展变化的关键就是对该滑坡进行现场监测。课题组多次现场踏勘，在原有8个地表监测点的基础上增设了29个监测点，使其布置更科学、合理；并对该滑坡进行了1个水文年的监测工作，获得了大量的笫一手资料，认为该滑坡正处于位移加速阶段。通过现场监测，不仅对滑坡体的现状有了新的认识。同时，预测了茅坪滑坡的变化发展趋势，可以为制定该滑坡的防治预案提供参考。

Numerical Solutions for the Transient Flow in the Homogenous Closed Circle Reservoirs

There are many fault block fields in China. A fault block field consists of fault pools. The small fault pools can be viewed as the closed circle reservoirs in some case. In order to know the pressure change of the developed formation and provide the formation data for developing the fault block fields reasonably, the transient flow should be researched. In this paper, we use the automatic mesh generation technology and the finite element method to solve the transient flow problem for the well located in the closed circle reservoir, especially for the well located in an arbitrary position in the closed circle reservoir. The pressure diffusion process is visualized and the well-location factor concept is first proposed in this paper. The typical curves of pressure vs time for the well with different well-location factors are presented. By comparing numerical results with the analytical solutions of the well located in the center of the closed circle reservoir, the numerical method is verified.

Mechanism Analysis of Landslide of a Layered Slope Induced by Drawdown of Water Level

The frequent drawdown of water level of Yangtze River will greatly influence the stability of the widely existing slopes in the Three Gorges reservoir zone, especially those layered ones. Apart from the fluctuating speed of water level, the different geological materials will also play important roles in the failure of slopes. Thus, it must be first to study the mechanism of such a landslide caused by drawdown of water level.A new experimental setup is designed to study the performance of a layered slope under the drawdown of water level. The pattern of landslide of a layered slope induced by drawdown of water level has been explored by means of simulating experiments. The influence of fluctuating speed of water level on the stability of the layered slope is probed,especially the whole process of deformation and development of landslide of the slope versus time. The experimental results show that the slope is stable during the water level rising, and the sliding body occurs in the upper layer of the slope under a certain drawdown speed of water level. In the process of slope failure, some new small sliding body will develop on the main sliding body, and the result is that they speed up the disassembly of the whole slope.Based on the simulating experiment on landslide of a layered slope induced by drawdown of water level, the stress and displacement field of the slope are calculated.The seepage velocity, the pore water pressure, and the gradient of pore water head are also calculated for the whole process of drawdown of water level. The computing results are in good agreement with the experimental results. Accordingly, the mechanism of deformation and landslide of the layered slope induced by drawdown of water level is analyzed. It may provide basis for treating this kind of layered slopes in practical engineering.

La recepción del Libro de Séneca contra la yra e saña en el siglo XV

Resumen: El presente trabajo estudia la recepción del Libro de Séneca contra la yra e saña, romanceamiento castellano medieval del diálogo De ira de L. A. Séneca, en el marco de la actividad cultural del siglo XV. Para ello tendremos en cuenta la presencia de la traducción en los inventarios de las bibliotecas nobiliarias, las tres únicas copias manuscritas conservadas (mss. Esc. N.II.8, S.II.14 y T.III.3), los testimonios indirectos que proceden de la obra de Fernán Pérez de Guzmán y la presunta reelaboración del humanista Nuño de Guzmán

The Pressure Transient Analysis Of Deformation Of Fractal Medium

The assumption of constant rock properties in pressure-transient analysis of stress-sensitive reservoirs can cause significant errors in the estimation of temporal and spatial variation of pressure. In this article, the pressure transient response of the fractal medium in stress-sensitive reservoirs was studied by using the self-similarity solution method and the regular perturbation method. The dependence of permeability on pore pressure makes the flow equation strongly nonlinear. The nonlinearities associated with the governing equation become weaker by using the logarithm transformation. The perturbation solutions for a constant pressure production and a constant rate production of a linear-source well were obtained by using the self-similarity solution method and the regular perturbation method in an infinitely large system, and inquire into the changing rule of pressure when the fractal and deformation parameters change. The plots of typical pressure curves were given in a few cases, and the results can be applied to well test analysis.

Designing Of Partial Similarity Models And Evaluation Method In Polymer Flooding Experiment

Based on the scaling criteria of polymer flooding reservoir obtained in our previous work in which the gravity and capillary forces, compressibility, non-Newtonian behavior, absorption, dispersion, and diffusion are considered, eight partial similarity models are designed. A new numerical approach of sensitivity analysis is suggested to quantify the dominance degree of relaxed dimensionless parameters for partial similarity model. The sensitivity factor quantifying the dominance degree of relaxed dimensionless parameter is defined. By solving the dimensionless governing equations including all dimensionless parameters, the sensitivity factor of each relaxed dimensionless parameter is calculated for each partial similarity model; thus, the dominance degree of the relaxed one is quantitatively determined. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the effect coefficient of partial similarity model is defined as the summation of product of sensitivity factor of relaxed dimensionless parameter and its relative relaxation quantity. The effect coefficient is used as a criterion to evaluate each partial similarity model. Then the partial similarity model with the smallest effect coefficient can be singled out to approximate to the prototype. Results show that the precision of partial similarity model is not only determined by the number of satisfied dimensionless parameters but also the relative relaxation quantity of the relaxed ones.

Stability Analysis Of The Moving Interface In Piston- And Non-Piston-Like Displacements

From the macroscopic point of view, expressions involving reservoir and operational parameters are established for investigating the stability of moving interface in piston- and non-piston-like displacements. In the case of axi-symmetrical piston-like displacement, the stability is related to the moving interface position and water to oil mobility ratio. The capillary effect on the stability of moving interface depends on whether or not the moving interface is already stable and correlates with the wettability of the reservoir rock. In the case of non-piston-like displacement, the stability of the front is governed by both the relative permeability and the mobility ratio.

Los hijos de la saña o los adversarios airados en el Amadís de Gaula

Integran este número de la revista ponencias presentadas en Studia Hispanica Medievalia VIII: Actas de las IX Jornadas Internacionales de Literatura Española Medieval, 2008, y de Homenaje al Quinto Centenario de Amadis de Gaula