Economic measurement in public welfare economics : practical experiences on the regional level in Germany

Resumen: ¿Cuál es el precio justo para la asistencia social? Este artículo muestra que la medición económica efectuada en mercados basados en el valor de los servicios prestados podría responder esta pregunta. La medición económica puede hacer lo mismo en distintos campos del trabajo social aplicando diferentes métodos, tales como ofertas públicas o negociaciones calificadas. Después de dar un breve panorama teórico, se presentan y analizan en detalle dos proyectos alemanes. El artículo muestra cómo la introducción de mecanismos de negociación en la asistencia social expresados en términos de resultados pueden traer efectos positivos para las finanzas públicas, así como también para el bien común.

Tunas and tuna fisheries of the World: an annotated bibliography, 1930-1953

This bibliography attempts to list, with descriptive annotations and a subject index, important literature published between 1930 and 1953 dealing with the tunas and their fisheries in all parts of the world. It is thus a continuation of Corwin's (1930) work, which extended with similar scope through 1929, and an extension of Shimada's (1951), which was limited to the biology of Pacific tunas. The tunas with which it deals are those fishes customarily so-called in commercial parlance and usually classified in the genera Thunnus, Neothunnus, Parathunnus, Germo, Katsuwonus, Euthynnus and Auxis and their various synonyms. All aspects of the biology of the tunas are dealt with, as are descriptions and histories of all types of tuna fisheries, commercial and exploratory tuna fishing methods and results, fishing gear, catch statistics, and fishery management, but processing technology, economics and marketing, folklore, and purely literary references have been excluded.

Construction, extension and evaluation of the improved smoking kiln (Banda) in Kainji Lake area

Fish smoking, as a traditional occupation of fishermen and women in Kainji Lake Area (Nigeria) is done using simple traditional ovens called 'Banda', the fuel for the smoking being almost hundred percent dependent on wood. A simple modification was made to the traditional 'Banda' oven using a damper to prevent burning of the fish. A comparison of the improved and the traditional 'Banda' was made. The results indicate that fuel wood consumption was reduced 52 percent by using the improved 'Banda', which implied that 50 percent of fish processor's income could be saved through the adoption of this technology. The most important advantage of the improved kiln, fuel wood conservation, represents for fishers a problem of an economic importance. Whilst they are aware that it is becoming much more difficult to get the needed fuel wood, the children can still conveniently collect enough wood for both home use and processing activities. The cost of the components of the improved kiln, when compared with the traditional version may be considered quite significant, and hence the reluctance of the fish processors in constructing similar ones. Selected blacksmiths were trained to continue the fabrication of the kiln component. The training was carried out to assure that the improved kiln will be constructed even after the project will end to support the fabrication

Design, operation and economics of a small-scale hatchery for the larval rearing of sugpo, Penaeus monodon Fab.

One of the major problems in the mass production of sugpo is how to obtain a constant supply of fry. Since ultimately it is the private sector which should produce the sugpo fry to fill the needs of the industry, the Barangay Hatchery Project under the Prawn Program of the Aquaculture Department of SEAFDEC has scaled down the hatchery technology from large tanks to a level which can be adopted by the private sector, especially in the villages, with a minimum of financial and technical inputs. This guide to small-scale hatchery operations is expected to generate more enthusiasm among fish farmers interested in venturing into sugpo culture.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

El sector económico de las mascotas en españa y su impacto en el PIB y la creacion de empleo

El principal objetivo de este Trabajo de Fin de Grado titulado “El sector económico de las mascotas en España y su impacto en el PIB y en la creación de empleo” es intentar dar a conocer a la sociedad el peso que tienen las mascotas en la economía en general y en la española en particular. Para comenzar el trabajo, analizamos los comienzos de la domesticación así como la historia y la importancia de los animales de compañía para el ser humano desde el punto de vista social y económico. Para visualizar el impacto económico de los animales de compañía nos centramos en los dos subsectores más relevantes desde la perspectiva del empleo y del impacto en el PIB: la alimentación y las prestaciones veterinarias. En lo que respecta a la alimentación, se analiza la producción en toneladas y euros así como la estructura de las empresas más relevantes y un análisis del líder en el sector. En cuanto al sector veterinario, se analiza su estructura en toda España en términos de empleo, número de empresas y resultados económicos. A lo largo del trabajo podemos observar que el sector de los animales de compañía se mantiene en continuo crecimiento debido al mayor número de animales domésticos que encontramos en los hogares. Para finalizar el desarrollo del Trabajo de Fin de Grado, elaboramos unas conclusiones en relación a los resultados más relevantes obtenidos en la realización de este estudio.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

A Theory of How the Brain Might Work

I wish to propose a quite speculative new version of the grandmother cell theory to explain how the brain, or parts of it, may work. In particular, I discuss how the visual system may learn to recognize 3D objects. The model would apply directly to the cortical cells involved in visual face recognition. I will also outline the relation of our theory to existing models of the cerebellum and of motor control. Specific biophysical mechanisms can be readily suggested as part of a basic type of neural circuitry that can learn to approximate multidimensional input-output mappings from sets of examples and that is expected to be replicated in different regions of the brain and across modalities. The main points of the theory are: -the brain uses modules for multivariate function approximation as basic components of several of its information processing subsystems. -these modules are realized as HyperBF networks (Poggio and Girosi, 1990a,b). -HyperBF networks can be implemented in terms of biologically plausible mechanisms and circuitry. The theory predicts a specific type of population coding that represents an extension of schemes such as look-up tables. I will conclude with some speculations about the trade-off between memory and computation and the evolution of intelligence.

The information needs and information-seeking behaviours of home-care workers and clients receiving home care

Cooper, J. & Urquhart, C. (2005). The information needs and information-seeking behaviours of home-care workers and clients receiving home care. Health Information and Libraries Journal, 22(2), 107-116. Sponsorship: AHRC

Exhibiting the behaviour of time-delayed systems via an extension to qualitative simulation

I. Miguel and Q. Shen. Exhibiting the behaviour of time-delayed systems via an extension to qualitative simulation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans, 35(2):298-305, 2005.

Home field effect and team performance: Evidence from English Premiership football

Thomas, Dennis, Carmichael, Fiona, 'Home field effect and team performance: Evidence from English Premiership football', Journal of Sports Economics (2005) 6(3) pp.264-281 RAE2008

Lights and shades of mission work, or, Leaves from a worker's note book : being reminiscenses of seven years service at the capital, 1885-1892 / by B.H.W.

http://www.archive.org/details/lightsandshades00bhwuoft

Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

A price worth paying?: Women and work – choice, constraint or satisficing

Purpose – Are women held back or holding back? Do women choose their jobs/careers or are they structurally or normatively constrained? The purpose of this paper is to shed fresh light on these questions and contribute to an on-going debate that has essentially focused on the extent to which part-time work is women’s choice, the role of structural and organisational constraints and the role of men in excluding women. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses data from interviews with 80 working women – both full-time and part-time – performing diverse work roles in a range of organisations in the south east of England. Findings – It was found that many women do not make strategic job choices, rather they often ‘‘fall into’’ jobs that happen to be available to them. Some would not have aspired to their present jobs without male encouragement; many report incidents of male exclusion; and virtually all either know or suspect that they are paid less than comparable men. Those working reduced hours enjoy that facility, yet they are aware that reduced hours and senior roles are seen as incompatible. In short, they recognise both the positive and negative aspects of their jobs, whether they work full or part-time, whether they work in male-dominated or female-dominated occupations, and whatever their position in the organisational hierarchy. Accordingly, the paper argues that the concept of ‘‘satisficing’’, i.e. a decision which is good enough but not optimal, is a more appropriate way to view women’s working lives than are either choice or constraint theories. Originality/value – There is an ongoing, and often polarised, debate between those who maintain that women choose whether to give preference to work or home/family and others who maintain that women, far from being self-determining actors, are constrained structurally and normatively. Rather than supporting these choice or constraint theories, this paper argues that ‘‘satisficing’’ is a more appropriate and nuanced concept to explain women’s working lives.

Range extension and reproduction of the barnacle Balanus perforatus in the eastern English Channel

The distribution of the warm-water barnacle, Balanus perforatus, was surveyed along the south coast of England and the north-east coast of France between 1993 and 2001, repeating work carried out between the 1940s and 1960s. The species has recovered from catastrophic mortality during the severe winter of 1962–1963 and was found over 120 km (UK) and 190 km (France) east of previous records on both sides of the Channel. The presence of the species in the eastern Channel refutes suggestions in the 1950s that larvae, and hence adults, would not be found east of the Isle of Wight because of reproductive sterility close to the limits of distribution. Brooding of specimens translocated to Bembridge, Isle of Wight, commenced in May, earlier than previously observed in British waters, and continued until September. The stage of embryo development at Bembridge in mid-August was comparable to that of the large population at Lyme Regis, Dorset 100 km further west. However the size of brood per standard body weight was greater at Lyme Regis. Factors influencing the rate of colonization and further geographic range extension of the species as a possible result of climate change, are discussed.