Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

Politiche pubbliche per la stagionalità del turismo da una prospettiva territoriale. Casi di studio in Scozia e in Sardegna

Rita Cannas presents a PhD thesis in Economics (Geo-Economic curriculum) which is titled “Public Policies for Seasonality in Tourism from a Territorial Perspective. Case Studies in Scotland and Sardinia”. The specific area of the research is public policies for contrasting seasonality in tourism in peripheral areas. Seasonality has seen such as a problem in terms of social and economics patterns especially for those local communities which are situated in peripheral areas. The research explores what, how and for who, public policies, that have been in place in Scotland and Sardinia over the last 10-5 years, are working and what kind of results these have produced. The research has empirical and theoretical implications for studying tourism seasonality. It aims to highlight the local supply patterns of the phenomenon investigated, and to improve knowledge about the strategies and the policies that have been adopted in the two territorial contexts (Scotland and Sardinia) for contrasting or modifying seasonality in tourism. The type of subject and the research questions have suggested the adoption of an interpretative theoretical perspective and a qualitative methodological approach, although a set of quantitative secondary data is also required for understanding main tourism's characteristics and for analyzing the specificity of seasonality. Interview with key actors of the local system in Scotland and Sardinia is the method chosen to collect primary data. In total the researcher has done 20 interviews in deep. Case studies are chosen both as unity of analysis and research strategy. The main findings of the research show a different and complex scenario about quality and quantity of public policies and strategies in tourism in the two case studies. The role of local resources is quite strategic on delivering tourism services and on counteracting seasonality. Events, festival are the main demand-side strategies. From a supply-side the principles policies are focused on quality of services, technology, high skills, sustainability. Partnership between public and private sector seems to be a fundamental way to work in order to attain changes and outcomes. The research has a strong research design, provides coherent results, and it has been done paying attention to the validation of the whole process.

Modeling hydrothermal system: deriving observables and hydrothermal instability in volcanic and non-volcanic setting

Hydrothermal fluids are a fundamental resource for understanding and monitoring volcanic and non-volcanic systems. This thesis is focused on the study of hydrothermal system through numerical modeling with the geothermal simulator TOUGH2. Several simulations are presented, and geophysical and geochemical observables, arising from fluids circulation, are analyzed in detail throughout the thesis. In a volcanic setting, fluids feeding fumaroles and hot spring may play a key role in the hazard evaluation. The evolution of the fluids circulation is caused by a strong interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems. A simultaneous analysis of different geophysical and geochemical observables is a sound approach for interpreting monitored data and to infer a consistent conceptual model. Analyzed observables are ground displacement, gravity changes, electrical conductivity, amount, composition and temperature of the emitted gases at surface, and extent of degassing area. Results highlight the different temporal response of the considered observables, as well as the different radial pattern of variation. However, magnitude, temporal response and radial pattern of these signals depend not only on the evolution of fluid circulation, but a main role is played by the considered rock properties. Numerical simulations highlight differences that arise from the assumption of different permeabilities, for both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Rock properties affect hydrothermal fluid circulation, controlling both the range of variation and the temporal evolution of the observable signals. Low temperature fumaroles and low discharge rate may be affected by atmospheric conditions. Detailed parametric simulations were performed, aimed to understand the effects of system properties, such as permeability and gas reservoir overpressure, on diffuse degassing when air temperature and barometric pressure changes are applied to the ground surface. Hydrothermal circulation, however, is not only a characteristic of volcanic system. Hot fluids may be involved in several mankind problems, such as studies on geothermal engineering, nuclear waste propagation in porous medium, and Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS). The current concept for large-scale GCS is the direct injection of supercritical carbon dioxide into deep geological formations which typically contain brine. Upward displacement of such brine from deep reservoirs driven by pressure increases resulting from carbon dioxide injection may occur through abandoned wells, permeable faults or permeable channels. Brine intrusion into aquifers may degrade groundwater resources. Numerical results show that pressure rise drives dense water up to the conduits, and does not necessarily result in continuous flow. Rather, overpressure leads to new hydrostatic equilibrium if fluids are initially density stratified. If warm and salty fluid does not cool passing through the conduit, an oscillatory solution is then possible. Parameter studies delineate steady-state (static) and oscillatory solutions.

Fonti cartografiche di Toscana e Catalogna di Età Moderna e Contemporanea. Ricostruire con il GIS, comunicare con WebGIS

The aim of this study is the creation of a Historical GIS that spatially reference data retrieved from Italian and Catalan historical sources and records. The generation of locates these metasource was achieved through the integral acquisition of source-oriented records and the insertion of mark-up fields, yet maintaining, where possible, the original encoding of the source documents. In order to standardize the set of information contained in the original documents and thus allow queries to the database, additional fields were introduced. Once the initial phase of data research and analysis was concluded the new virtual source was published online within an open WebGIS source. As a conclusion we have created a dynamic and spatially referenced database of geo-historical information. The configuration of this new source is such to guarantee the best possible accessibility.

Potential fields study of Marsili basin and Palinuro volcanic complex

In this thesis Marsili back-arc basin and Palinuro Volcanic Complex (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) have been investigated by using magnetic, bathymetric and gravimetric data. A new velocity model of opening of the Marsili basin has been proposed, highlighting the transition from the horizontal spreading of the back-arc to the vertical accretion of the Marsili seamount. Introducing gravity data, Marsili's internal structure has been modeled and a huge portion of the volcano with low density and vanishing magnetization has been detected. Forward modeling of Palinuro Volcanic Complex showed as Palinuro represents the shallowest evidence of a deep tectonic discontinuity and the possible transition domain between the oceanic crust of Marsili Basin and the continental crust related to the Appenninic chain.

Impact of ocean acidification on phytoplankton growth and aggregation

Since the industrial revolution, the ocean has absorbed around one third of the anthropogenic CO2, which induced a profound alteration of the carbonate system commonly known as ocean acidification. Since the preindustrial times, the average ocean surface water pH has fallen by 0.1 units, from approximately 8.2 to 8.1 and a further decrease of 0.4 pH units is expected for the end of the century. Despite their microscopic size, marine diatoms are bio-geo-chemically a very important group, responsible for the export of massive amount of carbon to deep waters and sediments. The knowledge of the potential effects of ocean acidification on the phytoplankton growth and on biological pump is still at its infancy. This study wants to investigate the effect of ocean acidification on the growth of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi and on its aggregation, using a mechanistic approach. The experiment consisted of two treatments (Present and Future) representing different pCO2 conditions and two sequential experimental phases. During the cell growth phase a culture of S. marinoi was inoculated into transparent bags and the effect of ocean acidification was studied on various growth parameters, including DOC and TEP production. The aggregation phase consisted in the incubation of the cultures into rolling tanks where the sinking of particles through the water column was simulated and aggregation promoted. Since few studies investigated the effect of pH on the growth of S. marinoi and none used pH ranges that are compatible with the OA scenarios, there were no baselines. I have shown here, that OA does not affect the cell growth of S. marinoi, suggesting that the physiology of this species is robust in respect to the changes in the carbonate chemistry expected for the end of the century. Furthermore, according to my results, OA does not affect the aggregation of S. marinoi in a consistent manner, suggesting that this process has a high natural variability but is not influenced by OA in a predictable way. The effect of OA was tested over a variety of factors including the number of aggregates produced, their size and sinking velocity, the algal, bacterial and TEP content. Many of these variables showed significant treatment effects but none of these were consistent between the two experiments.

Development of oil spill detection techniques for satellite optical sensors and their application to monitor oil spill discharge in Mediterranean sea

Satellite remote sensing has proved to be an effective support in timely detection and monitoring of marine oil pollution, mainly due to illegal ship discharges. In this context, we have developed a new methodology and technique for optical oil spill detection, which make use of MODIS L2 and MERIS L1B satellite top of atmosphere (TOA) reflectance imagery, for the first time in a highly automated way. The main idea was combining wide swaths and short revisit times of optical sensors with SAR observations, generally used in oil spill monitoring. This arises from the necessity to overcome the SAR reduced coverage and long revisit time of the monitoring area. This can be done now, given the MODIS and MERIS higher spatial resolution with respect to older sensors (250-300 m vs. 1 km), which consents the identification of smaller spills deriving from illicit discharge at sea. The procedure to obtain identifiable spills in optical reflectance images involves removal of oceanic and atmospheric natural variability, in order to enhance oil-water contrast; image clustering, which purpose is to segment the oil spill eventually presents in the image; finally, the application of a set of criteria for the elimination of those features which look like spills (look-alikes). The final result is a classification of oil spill candidate regions by means of a score based on the above criteria.

Detailed study of the seismotectonic setting in the Lucanian Apennines and surrounding areas (Southern Italy)

In this research work I analyzed the instrumental seismicity of Southern Italy in the area including the Lucanian Apennines and Bradano foredeep, making use of the most recent seismological database available so far. I examined the seismicity occurred during the period between 2001 and 2006, considering 514 events with magnitudes M ≥ 2.0. In the first part of the work, P- and S-wave arrival times, recorded by the Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC) operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), were re-picked along with those of the SAPTEX temporary array (2001–2004). For some events located in the Upper Val d'Agri, I also used data from the Eni-Agip oil company seismic network. I computed the VP/VS ratio obtaining a value of 1.83 and I carried out an analysis for the one-dimensional (1D) velocity model that approximates the seismic structure of the study area. After this preliminary analysis, making use of the records obtained in the SeSCAL experiment, I incremented the database by handpicking new arrival times. My final dataset consists of 15,666 P- and 9228 S-arrival times associated to 1047 earthquakes with magnitude ML ≥ 1.5. I computed 162 fault-plane solutions and composite focal mechanisms for closely located events. I investigated stress field orientation inverting focal mechanism belonging to the Lucanian Apennine and the Pollino Range, both areas characterized by more concentrated background seismicity. Moreover, I applied the double difference technique (DD) to improve the earthquake locations. Considering these results and different datasets available in the literature, I carried out a detailed analysis of single sub-areas and of a swarm (November 2008) recorded by SeSCAL array. The relocated seismicity appears more concentrated within the upper crust and it is mostly clustered along the Lucanian Apennine chain. In particular, two well-defined clusters were located in the Potentino and in the Abriola-Pietrapertosa sector (central Lucanian region). Their hypocentral depths are slightly deeper than those observed beneath the chain. I suggest that these two seismic features are representative of the transition from the inner portion of the chain with NE-SW extension to the external margin characterized by dextral strike-slip kinematics. In the easternmost part of the study area, below the Bradano foredeep and the Apulia foreland, the seismicity is generally deeper and more scattered and is associated to the Murge uplift and to the small structures present in the area. I also observed a small structure NE-SW oriented in the Abriola-Pietrapertosa area (activated with a swarm in November 2008) that could be considered to act as a barrier to the propagation of a potential rupture of an active NW-SE striking faults system. Focal mechanisms computed in this study are in large part normal and strike-slip solutions and their tensional axes (T-axes) have a generalized NE-SW orientation. Thanks to denser coverage of seismic stations and the detailed analysis, this study is a further contribution to the comprehension of the seismogenesis and state of stress of the Southern Apennines region, giving important contributions to seismotectonic zoning and seismic hazard assessment.

Kinematic description of the rupture from strong motion data: strategies for a robust inversion

We present a non linear technique to invert strong motion records with the aim of obtaining the final slip and rupture velocity distributions on the fault plane. In this thesis, the ground motion simulation is obtained evaluating the representation integral in the frequency. The Green’s tractions are computed using the discrete wave-number integration technique that provides the full wave-field in a 1D layered propagation medium. The representation integral is computed through a finite elements technique, based on a Delaunay’s triangulation on the fault plane. The rupture velocity is defined on a coarser regular grid and rupture times are computed by integration of the eikonal equation. For the inversion, the slip distribution is parameterized by 2D overlapping Gaussian functions, which can easily relate the spectrum of the possible solutions with the minimum resolvable wavelength, related to source-station distribution and data processing. The inverse problem is solved by a two-step procedure aimed at separating the computation of the rupture velocity from the evaluation of the slip distribution, the latter being a linear problem, when the rupture velocity is fixed. The non-linear step is solved by optimization of an L2 misfit function between synthetic and real seismograms, and solution is searched by the use of the Neighbourhood Algorithm. The conjugate gradient method is used to solve the linear step instead. The developed methodology has been applied to the M7.2, Iwate Nairiku Miyagi, Japan, earthquake. The estimated magnitude seismic moment is 2.6326 dyne∙cm that corresponds to a moment magnitude MW 6.9 while the mean the rupture velocity is 2.0 km/s. A large slip patch extends from the hypocenter to the southern shallow part of the fault plane. A second relatively large slip patch is found in the northern shallow part. Finally, we gave a quantitative estimation of errors associates with the parameters.

Climate impact studies of sediment transport on the Adriatic coastal zone

The study of the impact of climate change on the environment has been based, until very recently, on an global approach, whose interest from a local point of view is very limited. This thesis, on the contrary, has treated the study of the impact of climate change in the Adriatic Sea basin following a twofold strategy of regionalization and integration of numerical models in order to reproduce the present and future scenarios of the system through a more and more realistic and solid approach. In particular the focus of the study was on the impact on the physical environment and on the sediment transport in the basin. This latter is a very new and original issue, to our knowledge still uninvestigated. The study case of the coastal area of Montenegro was particularly studied, since it is characterized by an important supply of sediment through the Buna/Bojana river, second most important in the Adriatic basin in terms of flow. To do this, a methodology to introduce the tidal processes in a baroclinic primitive equations Ocean General Circulation Model was applied and tidal processes were successfully reproduced in the Adriatic Sea, analyzing also the impacts they have on the mean general circulation, on salt and heat transport and on mixing and stratification of the water column in the different seasons of the year. The new hydrodynamical model has been further coupled with a wave model and with a river and sea sediment transport model, showing good results in the reproduction of sediment transport processes. Finally this complex coupled platform was integrated in the period 2001-2030 under the A1B scenario of IPCC, and the impact of climate change on the physical system and on sediment transport was preliminarily evaluated.

Structure of the Southern Tyrrhenian subduction system: insights from seismological analysis of anisotropy and attenuation

The Southern Tyrrhenian subduction system shows a complex interaction among asthenospheric flow, subducting slab and overriding plate. To shed light on the deformations and mechanical properties of the slab and surrounding mantle, I investigated seismic anisotropy and attenuation properties through the subduction region. I used both teleseisms and slab earthquakes, analyzing shear-wave splitting on SKS and S phases, respectively. The fast polarization directions φ, and the delay time, δt, were retrieved using the method of Silver and Chan [1991. SKS and S φ reveal a complex anisotropy pattern across the subduction zone. SKS-rays sample primarily the sub-slab region showing rotation of fast directions following the curved shape of the slab and very strong anisotropy. S-rays sample mainly the slab, showing variable φ and a smaller δt. SKS and S splitting reveals a well developed toroidal flow at SW edge of the slab, while at its NE edge the pattern is not very clear. This suggests that the anisotropy is controlled by the slab rollback, responsible for about 100 km slab parallel φ in the sub-slab mantle. The slab is weakly anisotropic, suggesting the asthenosphere as main source of anisotropy. To investigate the physical properties of the slab and surrounding regions, I analyzed the seismic P and S wave attenuation. By inverting high-quality S-waves t* from slab earthquakes, 3D attenuation models down to 300 km were obtained. Attenuation results image the slab as low-attenuation body, but with heterogeneous QS and QP structure showing spot of high attenuation , between 100-200 km depth, which could be due dehydration associated to the slab metamorphism. A low QS anomaly is present in the mantle wedge beneath the Aeolian volcanic arc and could indicate mantle melting and slab dehydration.

Imaging of crustal scatterers using multiple seismic arrays

Array seismology is an useful tool to perform a detailed investigation of the Earth’s interior. Seismic arrays by using the coherence properties of the wavefield are able to extract directivity information and to increase the ratio of the coherent signal amplitude relative to the amplitude of incoherent noise. The Double Beam Method (DBM), developed by Krüger et al. (1993, 1996), is one of the possible applications to perform a refined seismic investigation of the crust and mantle by using seismic arrays. The DBM is based on a combination of source and receiver arrays leading to a further improvement of the signal-to-noise ratio by reducing the error in the location of coherent phases. Previous DBM works have been performed for mantle and core/mantle resolution (Krüger et al., 1993; Scherbaum et al., 1997; Krüger et al., 2001). An implementation of the DBM has been presented at 2D large-scale (Italian data-set for Mw=9.3, Sumatra earthquake) and at 3D crustal-scale as proposed by Rietbrock & Scherbaum (1999), by applying the revised version of Source Scanning Algorithm (SSA; Kao & Shan, 2004). In the 2D application, the rupture front propagation in time has been computed. In 3D application, the study area (20x20x33 km3), the data-set and the source-receiver configurations are related to the KTB-1994 seismic experiment (Jost et al., 1998). We used 60 short-period seismic stations (200-Hz sampling rate, 1-Hz sensors) arranged in 9 small arrays deployed in 2 concentric rings about 1 km (A-arrays) and 5 km (B-array) radius. The coherence values of the scattering points have been computed in the crustal volume, for a finite time-window along all array stations given the hypothesized origin time and source location. The resulting images can be seen as a (relative) joint log-likelihood of any point in the subsurface that have contributed to the full set of observed seismograms.

Irrigazione e cambiamenti climatici

The aim of this PhD thesis, developed in the framework of the Italian Agroscenari research project, is to compare current irrigation volumes in two study area in Emilia-Romagna with the likely irrigation under climate change conditions. This comparison was carried out between the reference period 1961-1990, as defined by WMO, and the 2021-2050 period. For this period, multi-model climatic projections on the two study areas were available. So, the climatic projections were analyzed in term of their impact on irrigation demand and adaptation strategies for fruit and horticultural crops in the study area of Faenza, with a detailed analysis for kiwifruit vine, and for horticultural crops in Piacenza plan, focusing on the irrigation water needs of tomato. We produced downscaled climatic projections (based on A1B Ipcc emission scenario) for the two study areas. The climate change impacts for the period 2021-2050 on crop irrigation water needs and other agrometeorological index were assessed by means of the Criteria water balance model, in the two versions available, Criteria BdP (local) and Geo (spatial) with different levels of detail. We found in general for both the areas an irrigation demand increase of about +10% comparing the 2021-2050 period with the reference years 1961-1990, but no substantial differences with more recent years (1991-2008), mainly due to a projected increase in spring precipitation compensating the projected higher summer temperature and evapotranspiration. As a consequence, it is not forecasted a dramatic increase in the irrigation volumes with respect to the current volumes.