Expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections in South Korea

Understanding the expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections is critical for (a) identifying high-risk sites where the observed safety performance is substantially worse than the expected safety performance, (b) understanding influential factors associated with crashes, and (c) predicting the future performance of sites and helping plan safety-enhancing activities. These three critical activities are routinely conducted for safety management and planning purposes in jurisdictions throughout the United States and around the world. This paper aims to develop baseline expected safety performance functions of rural signalized intersections in South Korea, which to date have not yet been established or reported in the literature. Data are examined from numerous locations within South Korea for both three-legged and four-legged configurations. The safety effects of a host of operational and geometric variables on the safety performance of these sites are also examined. In addition, supplementary tables and graphs are developed for comparing the baseline safety performance of sites with various geometric and operational features. These graphs identify how various factors are associated with safety. The expected safety prediction tables offer advantages over regression prediction equations by allowing the safety manager to isolate specific features of the intersections and examine their impact on expected safety. The examination of the expected safety performance tables through illustrated examples highlights the need to correct for regression-to-the-mean effects, emphasizes the negative impacts of multicollinearity, shows why multivariate models do not translate well to accident modification factors, and illuminates the need to examine road safety carefully and methodically. Caveats are provided on the use of the safety performance prediction graphs developed in this paper.

Parameter estimation for a phenomenological model of the cardiac action potential

The action potential (ap) of a cardiac cell is made up of a complex balance of ionic currents which flow across the cell membrane in response to electrical excitation of the cell. Biophysically detailed mathematical models of the ap have grown larger in terms of the variables and parameters required to model new findings in subcellular ionic mechanisms. The fitting of parameters to such models has seen a large degree of parameter and module re-use from earlier models. An alternative method for modelling electrically exciteable cardiac tissue is a phenomenological model, which reconstructs tissue level ap wave behaviour without subcellular details. A new parameter estimation technique to fit the morphology of the ap in a four variable phenomenological model is presented. An approximation of a nonlinear ordinary differential equation model is established that corresponds to the given phenomenological model of the cardiac ap. The parameter estimation problem is converted into a minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. A modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization is then used to solve the minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. The successful fitting of data generated from a well known biophysically detailed model is demonstrated. A successful fit to an experimental ap recording that contains both noise and experimental artefacts is also produced. The parameter estimation method’s ability to fit a complex morphology to a model with substantially more parameters than previously used is established.

Using complex network metrics to predict the persistence of metapopulations with asymmetric connectivity patterns

Almost all metapopulation modelling assumes that connectivity between patches is only a function of distance, and is therefore symmetric. However, connectivity will not depend only on the distance between the patches, as some paths are easy to traverse, while others are difficult. When colonising organisms interact with the heterogeneous landscape between patches, connectivity patterns will invariably be asymmetric. There have been few attempts to theoretically assess the effects of asymmetric connectivity patterns on the dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we use the framework of complex networks to investigate whether metapopulation dynamics can be determined by directly analysing the asymmetric connectivity patterns that link the patches. Our analyses focus on “patch occupancy” metapopulation models, which only consider whether a patch is occupied or not. We propose three easily calculated network metrics: the “asymmetry” and “average path strength” of the connectivity pattern, and the “centrality” of each patch. Together, these metrics can be used to predict the length of time a metapopulation is expected to persist, and the relative contribution of each patch to a metapopulation’s viability. Our results clearly demonstrate the negative effect that asymmetry has on metapopulation persistence. Complex network analyses represent a useful new tool for understanding the dynamics of species existing in fragmented landscapes, particularly those existing in large metapopulations.

The contribution of leadership attributes to large scale, complex project success

Mismanagement of large-scale, complex projects has resulted in spectacular failures, cost overruns, time blowouts, and stakeholder dissatisfaction. We focus discussion on the interaction of key management and leadership attributes which facilitate leaders’ adaptive behaviors. These behaviors should in turn influence adaptive team member behavior, stakeholder engagement and successful project outcomes, outputs and impacts. An understanding of this type of management will benefit from a perspective based in managerial and organizational cognition. The research question we explore is whether successful leaders of large-scale complex projects have an internal process leading to a display of administrative, adaptive, and enabling behaviors that foster adaptive processes and enabling behaviors within their teams and with external stakeholders. At the core of the model we propose interactions of key attributes, namely cognitive flexibility, affect, and emotional intelligence. The result of these cognitive-affective attribute interactions is leadership leading to enhanced likelihood of complex project success.

Impact of a data warehouse model for improved decision-making process in healthcare

The health system is one sector dealing with a deluge of complex data. Many healthcare organisations struggle to utilise these volumes of health data effectively and efficiently. Also, there are many healthcare organisations, which still have stand-alone systems, not integrated for management of information and decision-making. This shows, there is a need for an effective system to capture, collate and distribute this health data. Therefore, implementing the data warehouse concept in healthcare is potentially one of the solutions to integrate health data. Data warehousing has been used to support business intelligence and decision-making in many other sectors such as the engineering, defence and retail sectors. The research problem that is going to be addressed is, "how can data warehousing assist the decision-making process in healthcare". To address this problem the researcher has narrowed an investigation focusing on a cardiac surgery unit. This research used the cardiac surgery unit at the Prince Charles Hospital (TPCH) as the case study. The cardiac surgery unit at TPCH uses a stand-alone database of patient clinical data, which supports clinical audit, service management and research functions. However, much of the time, the interaction between the cardiac surgery unit information system with other units is minimal. There is a limited and basic two-way interaction with other clinical and administrative databases at TPCH which support decision-making processes. The aims of this research are to investigate what decision-making issues are faced by the healthcare professionals with the current information systems and how decision-making might be improved within this healthcare setting by implementing an aligned data warehouse model or models. As a part of the research the researcher will propose and develop a suitable data warehouse prototype based on the cardiac surgery unit needs and integrating the Intensive Care Unit database, Clinical Costing unit database (Transition II) and Quality and Safety unit database [electronic discharge summary (e-DS)]. The goal is to improve the current decision-making processes. The main objectives of this research are to improve access to integrated clinical and financial data, providing potentially better information for decision-making for both improved from the questionnaire and by referring to the literature, the results indicate a centralised data warehouse model for the cardiac surgery unit at this stage. A centralised data warehouse model addresses current needs and can also be upgraded to an enterprise wide warehouse model or federated data warehouse model as discussed in the many consulted publications. The data warehouse prototype was able to be developed using SAS enterprise data integration studio 4.2 and the data was analysed using SAS enterprise edition 4.3. In the final stage, the data warehouse prototype was evaluated by collecting feedback from the end users. This was achieved by using output created from the data warehouse prototype as examples of the data desired and possible in a data warehouse environment. According to the feedback collected from the end users, implementation of a data warehouse was seen to be a useful tool to inform management options, provide a more complete representation of factors related to a decision scenario and potentially reduce information product development time. However, there are many constraints exist in this research. For example the technical issues such as data incompatibilities, integration of the cardiac surgery database and e-DS database servers and also, Queensland Health information restrictions (Queensland Health information related policies, patient data confidentiality and ethics requirements), limited availability of support from IT technical staff and time restrictions. These factors have influenced the process for the warehouse model development, necessitating an incremental approach. This highlights the presence of many practical barriers to data warehousing and integration at the clinical service level. Limitations included the use of a small convenience sample of survey respondents, and a single site case report study design. As mentioned previously, the proposed data warehouse is a prototype and was developed using only four database repositories. Despite this constraint, the research demonstrates that by implementing a data warehouse at the service level, decision-making is supported and data quality issues related to access and availability can be reduced, providing many benefits. Output reports produced from the data warehouse prototype demonstrated usefulness for the improvement of decision-making in the management of clinical services, and quality and safety monitoring for better clinical care. However, in the future, the centralised model selected can be upgraded to an enterprise wide architecture by integrating with additional hospital units’ databases.

In search of the antecendents for risky driving at railway level crossings

This paper discusses human factors issues of low cost railway level crossings in Australia. Several issues are discussed in this paper including safety at passive level railway crossings, human factors considerations associated with unavailability of a warning device, and a conceptual model for how safety could be compromised at railway level crossings following prolonged or frequent unavailability. The research plans to quantify safety risk to motorists at level crossings using a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) method, supported by data collected using an advanced driving simulator. This method aims to identify human error within tasks and task units identified as part of the task analysis process. It is anticipated that by modelling driver behaviour the current study will be able to quantify meaningful task variability including temporal parameters, between participants and within participants. The process of complex tasks such as driving through a level crossing is fundamentally context-bound. Therefore this study also aims to quantify those performance-shaping factors that contribute to vehicle train collisions by highlighting changes in the task units and driver physiology. Finally we will also consider a number of variables germane to ensuring external validity of our results. Without this inclusion, such an analysis could seriously underestimate the probabilistic risk assessment.

A human factors investigation into the unavailability of active warnings at railway level crossings

This paper discusses human factors issues of low cost railway level crossings in Australia. Several issues are discussed in this paper including safety at passive level railway crossings, human factors considerations associated with unavailability of a warning device, and a conceptual model for how safety could be compromised at railway level crossings following prolonged or frequent unavailability. The research plans to quantify safety risk to motorists at level crossings using a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) method, supported by data collected using an advanced driving simulator. This method aims to identify human error within tasks and task units identified as part of the task analysis process. It is anticipated that by modelling driver behaviour the current study will be able to quantify meaningful task variability including temporal parameters, between participants and within participants. The process of complex tasks such as driving through a level crossing is fundamentally context-bound. Therefore this study also aims to quantify those performance-shaping factors that contribute to vehicle train collisions by highlighting changes in the task units and driver physiology. Finally we will also consider a number of variables germane to ensuring external validity of our results. Without this inclusion, such an analysis could seriously underestimate risk.

Complexity, evolution, and the structure of demand

This chapter argues that evolutionary economics should be founded upon complex systems theory rather than neo-Darwinian analogies concerning natural selection, which focus on supply side considerations and competition amongst firms and technologies. It suggests that conceptions such as production and consumption functions should be replaced by network representations, in which the preferences or, more correctly, the aspirations of consumers are fundamental and, as such, the primary drivers of economic growth. Technological innovation is viewed as a process that is intermediate between these aspirational networks, and the organizational networks in which goods and services are produced. Consumer knowledge becomes at least as important as producer knowledge in determining how economic value is generated. It becomes clear that the stability afforded by connective systems of rules is essential for economic flexibility to exist, but that too many rules result in inert and structurally unstable states. In contrast, too few rules result in a more stable state, but at a low level of ordered complexity. Economic evolution from this perspective is explored using random and scale free network representations of complex systems.

Profiling and characterisation of key weather variables and their implication on building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's all eight capital cities are analyzed to characterize the variation profiles of climatic variables. The method of descriptive statistics is employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are used to graphically illustrate the similarity and difference between different study locations. It is found that although the weather variables vary with different locations, except for the extreme parts, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part. The implication of these extreme parts and the slopes of the middle parts on building design is also discussed.

A review of models and model usage scenarios for an airport complex system

Airports represent the epitome of complex systems with multiple stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions and complex interactions between many actors. The large number of existing models that capture different aspects of the airport are a testament to this. However, these existing models do not consider in a systematic sense modelling requirements nor how stakeholders such as airport operators or airlines would make use of these models. This can detrimentally impact on the verification and validation of models and makes the development of extensible and reusable modelling tools difficult. This paper develops from the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) framework a methodology to help structure the review and development of modelling capabilities and usage scenarios. The method is applied to the review of existing airport terminal passenger models. It is found that existing models can be broadly categorised according to four usage scenarios: capacity planning, operational planning and design, security policy and planning, and airport performance review. The models, the performance metrics that they evaluate and their usage scenarios are discussed. It is found that capacity and operational planning models predominantly focus on performance metrics such as waiting time, service time and congestion whereas performance review models attempt to link those to passenger satisfaction outcomes. Security policy models on the other hand focus on probabilistic risk assessment. However, there is an emerging focus on the need to be able to capture trade-offs between multiple criteria such as security and processing time. Based on the CONOPS framework and literature findings, guidance is provided for the development of future airport terminal models.

Maternal correlates of maternal child feeding practices : a systematic review

Establishing healthy eating habits early in life is one important strategy to combat childhood obesity. Given that early maternal child feeding practices have been linked to child food intake and weight, identifying the maternal correlates of maternal child feeding practices is important in order to understand the determinants of childhood obesity; this was the overall aim of the current review. Academic databases were searched for studies examining the relationship between maternal child feeding practices and parenting, personal characteristics and psychopathology of mothers with preschoolers. Papers were limited to those published in English, between January 2000 - June 2012. Only studies with mothers of normally developing children between the ages of 2 - 6 years were included. There were no restrictions regarding the inclusion of maternal nationality or SES. Seventeen eligible studies were sourced. Information on the aim, sample, measures and findings of these was summarised into tables. The findings of this review support a relationship between maternal controlling parenting, general and eating psychopathology, and socioeconomic status and maternal child feeding practices. The main methodological issues of the studies reviewed included inconsistency in measures of maternal variables across studies and cross-sectional designs. We conclude that the maternal correlates associated with maternal child feeding practices are complex, and the pathways by which maternal correlates impact these feeding practices require further investigation.

Shifting meanings : The role of metaphors in collective meaning–making in complex project leadership

This paper examines the use of metaphors in collective meaning-making in the work of managers and leaders of megaprojects, drawing on interviews with thirty-three leaders of complex projects in a case study organisation responsible for the delivery of major acquisitions. Recognising the notion of both contextualised and decontextualised approaches to either seeking to elicit or project metaphors, the paper describes the various ways in practising project leaders describe their work and the synergies these metaphors have with the broader social discourse and theorisation around complexity and the language of complex adaptive systems. The paper presents our case study findings where we outline our typology of meta-metaphors describing project leaders’ multiple roles and our interpretation of the significance of these choices.

On the probability density function of the product of Rayleigh distributed random variables

In this paper we investigate the distribution of the product of Rayleigh distributed random variables. Considering the Mellin-Barnes inversion formula and using the saddle point approach we obtain an upper bound for the product distribution. The accuracy of this tail-approximation increases as the number of random variables in the product increase.

The genetics of endurance : frequency of the ACTN3 R577X variant in Ironman World Championship athletes

Objectives To investigate the frequency of the ACTN3 R577X polymorphism in elite endurance triathletes, and whether ACTN3 R577X is significantly associated with performance time. Design Cross-sectional study. Methods Saliva samples, questionnaires, and performance times were collected for 196 elite endurance athletes who participated in the 2008 Kona Ironman championship triathlon. Athletes were of predominantly North American, European, and Australian origin. A one-way analysis of variance was conducted to compare performance times between genotype groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to model the effect of questionnaire variables and genotype on performance time. Genotype and allele frequencies were compared to results from different populations using the chi-square test. Results Performance time did not significantly differ between genotype groups, and age, sex, and continent of origin were significant predictors of finishing time (age and sex: p < 5 × 10−6; continent: p = 0.003) though genotype was not. Genotype and allele frequencies obtained (RR 26.5%, RX 50.0%, XX 23.5%, R 51.5%, X 48.5%) were found to be not significantly different from Australian, Spanish, and Italian endurance athletes (p > 0.05), but were significantly different from Kenyan, Ethiopian, and Finnish endurance athletes (p < 0.01). Conclusions Genotype and allele frequencies agreed with those reported for endurance athletes of similar ethnic origin, supporting previous findings for an association between 577X allele and endurance. However, analysis of performance time suggests that ACTN3 does not alone influence endurance performance, or may have a complex effect on endurance performance due to a speed/endurance trade-off.

A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.