An exploratory assessment of the potential impact of the free trade area of the americas on the andean community

A través de una simulación llevada a cabo con GTAP, este documento presenta una evaluación preliminar del impacto potencial que el Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas tendría sobre la Comunidad Andina de Naciones. Mantenido por la Universidad de Purdue, el GTAP es un modelo multiregional de equilibrio general, ampliamente usado para el análisis de temas de economía internacional. El experimento llevado a cabo tiene lugar en un ambiente de competencia perfecta y rendimientos constantes a escala y consiste en la completa eliminación de aranceles a las importaciones de bienes entre los países del Hemisferio Occidental. Los resultados muestran la presencia de modestas pero positivas ganancias netas de bienestar para la Comunidad Andina, generadas fundamentalmente por mejoras en la asignación de recursos. Movimientos desfavorables en los términos de intercambio y el efecto de la desviación de comercio con respecto a terceros países, reducen considerablemente las ganancias potenciales de bienestar. De la misma forma, la existencia de distorsiones económicas al interior de la Comunidad Andina tiene un efecto negativo sobre el bienestar. El patrón de comercio aumenta su grado de concentración en el comercio bilateral con los Estados Unidos y la remuneración real a los factores productivos presenta mejoras con la implementación de la zona de libre comercio.

Migration, unemployment and trade

Migration, Unemployment and Trade focuses on the issues of migration, welfare and unemployment in a trade and development framework. Several chapters of the book analyze the implications of internal labor mobility in a model designed to highlight its implications for regional welfare, urban unemployment, rural-urban dichotomy and structural adjustment. An important innovation in this work is the disaggregation of the economy and the use of separate utility functions to highlight non-homogeneity of preferences. The book also deals with international mobility of factors in different frameworks. In particular it concentrates on the highly emotive issue of legal and illegal migration. Thus this work incorporates interesting and important features of labor economics and factor mobility into trade and distortion theory.

Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Export Performance in China

This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the export performance of China at the provincial level. First, it presents a theoretical discussion of the impact of FDI on foreign trade, and then an empirical study of the impact of FDI on the export performance of regions in Chin. It has been found that the impact of FDI on exports differs across three macro-regions in China. The effect is stronger in the coastal region than in the inland regions. Although FDI shows a positive and significant impact on exports from the central region, its impact on the western region is found to be insignificant.

Vulnerability, trade, financial flows and state failure in small island developing states

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are very different to other developing countries. Relative to GDP they have the highest levels of foreign trade and aid receipts of all developing countries. Remittances from abroad are a far more important source of income for SIDS, and some depend very heavily on export revenues. The quality of governance varies tremendously among SIDS, they are over-represented among countries classified as fragile states and many are prone to state failure. These and other factors combine to make SIDS highly vulnerable to external economic shocks. Achieving development in SIDS is as a consequence an especially complex task that requires an understanding of the roles played by aid, trade, remittances and governance in these countries. This paper looks at these issues, along with providing various stylised facts about SIDS. In so doing it serves as a background and broad contextual setting for the papers that follow in this Special Issue on 'Fragility and Development in Small Island Developing States'.

Temporal causality between the exchange rate and the trade balance : the case of Brazil

The paper assesses the impact of intemational relative prices and domestic expenditure variables on Brazil' s foreign trade performance in the first half of the 1990s. It has been argued that the appreciation of the Real since 1994 has had a detrimental impact of the country's trade balance. However, using temporal precedence analysis, our results do not indicate that the trade balance is strongly affected by intemational rei ative prices, such as the exchange rate. Instead, domestic expenditure variables appear to be more powerful determinant of the country' s trade performance in recent years. Granger and error correction causality techniques are used to determine temporal precedence between the trade balance and the exchange rate in the period under examination. Our findings shed light on the debate over the sustainability of recent exchange rate-anchored macroeconomic stabilisation programmes, which is a topic that has encouraged a lot of debate among academics and practitioners.

5th BRICS Trade and Economic Research Network (TERN) meeting: the impact of mega agreements on BRICS

The BRICS TERN – BRICS Trade and Economics Research Network is a group of independent research institutes established four years ago by five think tanks from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The main objective of the network is to study different aspects of trade and economic relations amongst these five countries. The purpose of the V BRICS TERN Meeting was to analyze and debate the effects of the negotiations of the Mega Agreements, mainly those initiated by the US and the EU, already in negotiation, to each of the BRICS Trade Policies. Both Mega Agreements were examined – the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The studies included the main impacts on trade flows and on the international trade rules system, respecting the perspective of each of the countries concerned. This workshop was an initiative of the Center for Global Trade and Investments (CGTI), a think-tank on International Trade held by FGV Sao Paulo School of Economics. Its main objective is the research on trade regulation, preferential trade agreements, trade and currency, trade and global value chains, through legal analysis and economic modelling. One of its main researches, now, is on the potential economic and legal impacts of the Mega Agreements on Brazil and WTO rules. This meeting was organized in March14, 2014, in Rio de Janeiro, in a perfect timing for introducing such issues in the international agenda, in advance of the 6th BRICS Summit scheduled to be held in Brazil in July 2014.

Brazilian competitiveness on international trade

In recent years, Brazil benefited from foreign trade expansion and its exports of goods grew by 16.5%. If this strong growth trend keeps up for the next years, today’s bottlenecks may have a negative impact on the competitiveness of the country’s products in the global market. This is especially critical for one of the main “green fuels” producers in a scenario where the demand for this energy source grows due to rising oil prices and environmental concerns. Based on a survey that collected data from 250 Brazilian exporters, this study focuses on the constraints that reduce the competitiveness of exports. This study differs from previous ones in that it considers the professionals directly involved with export activities and evaluates different aspects, including logistics, operations, taxes, legal, bureaucratic and informational ones. Results show that the most important constraints strongly affect costs and delivery reliability

A aplicação do acordo sobre subsídios e medidas compensatórias pelo estado brasileiro

The Multilateral Trading System has evolved and presented new international mandatory rules to States. Along with the World Trade Organization constitutive treaty, Brazil has incorporated the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM) in the national legal system. That treaty limits de scope of subsidies concession by governments since this practice can constitute a mechanism of commercial disloyalty, affecting national industrial development in the importing country. At the same time, the multilateral agreement grants defense legitimate instruments to States, among them the possibility of domestically and unilaterally imposing countervailing measures to subsidized products that enter the national territory. Since the issue concerns both international and domestic level in complementary grounds, this research, besides investigating the treaty related obligation, aims at studying the national legal fundaments to ASCM s application by the Brazilian State. Therefore, the essential point resides in the State s conduction of its international trading and also in its available and constitutionally established mechanisms of economic intervention. State s regulating power reveals itself as a fundamental prerogative to succeed in the internalization of international agreement s requirements in the domestic legal system, which represents a basic prerequisite to the implementation of countervailing measures. Once the whole normative outlines are apprehended, this study shall scan the administrative process of trading defense main elements, along with the means of controlling public administration acts. The action taken by the public organs that directly intervene in foreign trade shall be analyzed as well, so as to enable reasoning if the unilateral application of countervailing duties by the Brazilian State is happening on legitimacy grounds

International trade in Latina America and the Caribbean 2009: crisis and recovery

Includes bibliography

Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences

Include bibliography

Foreign investment in Mexico after economic reform

Includes bibliography

Trade and economic growth: a Latin American perspective on rhetoric and reality

Incluye Bibliografía

Trade, direct investment and production policies

Includes bibliography

Productive development in open economies

Includes bibliography