A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

Dynamic Micromapping of CO2 Sorption in Coal

We have applied X-ray and neutron small-angle scattering techniques (SAXS, SANS, and USANS) to study the interaction between fluids and porous media in the particular case of subcritical CO2 sorption in coal. These techniques are demonstrated to give unique, pore-size-specific insights into the kinetics of CO2 sorption in a wide range of coal pores (nano to meso) and to provide data that may be used to determine the density of the sorbed CO2. We observed densification of the adsorbed CO2 by a factor up to five compared to the free fluid at the same (p, T) conditions. Our results indicate that details of CO2 sorption into coal pores differ greatly between different coals and depend on the amount of mineral matter dispersed in the coal matrix: a purely organic matrix absorbs more CO2 per unit volume than one containing mineral matter, but mineral matter markedly accelerates the sorption kinetics. Small pores are filled preferentially by the invading CO2 fluid and the apparent diffusion coefficients have been estimated to vary in the range from 5 × 10-7 cm2/min to more than 10-4 cm2/min, depending on the CO2 pressure and location on the sample.

Technoeconomic analysis of renewable aviation fuel from microalgae,Pongamia pinnata, and sugarcane

Technoeconomic analysis of renewable aviatin fuels has not been widely considered, despite the increasing global attention that the field has received. We present three process models for production of aviation fuel from microalgae, Pongamia pinnata, and sugarcane molasses. The models and assumptions have been deposited on a wiki (http://qsafi.aibn.uq.edu.au) and are open and accessible to the community. Based on currently available long-term reputable technological data, this analysis indicates that the biorefinieries processing the microalgae, Pongamia seeds, and sugarcane feedstocks would be competitive with crude oil at $1343, $374, and $301/bbl, respectively. Sensitivity analyses of the major economic drivers suggest technological and market developments that would bring the corresponding figures down to $385, $255, and $168/bbl. The dynamic nature of the freely accessible models will allow the community to track progress toward economic competitiveness of aviation fuels from these renewable feedstocks.

Practical aspects of frequency-domain identification of dynamic models of marine structures from hydrodynamic data

The motion response of marine structures in waves can be studied using finite-dimensional linear-time-invariant approximating models. These models, obtained using system identification with data computed by hydrodynamic codes, find application in offshore training simulators, hardware-in-the-loop simulators for positioning control testing, and also in initial designs of wave-energy conversion devices. Different proposals have appeared in the literature to address the identification problem in both time and frequency domains, and recent work has highlighted the superiority of the frequency-domain methods. This paper summarises practical frequency-domain estimation algorithms that use constraints on model structure and parameters to refine the search of approximating parametric models. Practical issues associated with the identification are discussed, including the influence of radiation model accuracy in force-to-motion models, which are usually the ultimate modelling objective. The illustration examples in the paper are obtained using a freely available MATLAB toolbox developed by the authors, which implements the estimation algorithms described.

Study on dynamic system optimum assignment to establish marginal time equilibrium

Several analytical methods for Dynamic System Optimum (DSO) assignment have been proposed but they are basically classified into two kinds. This chapter attempts to establish DSO by equilbrating the path dynamic marginal time (DMT). The authors analyze the path DMT for a single path with tandem bottlenecks and showed that the path DMT is not the simple summation of DMT associated with each bottleneck along the path. Next, the authors examined the DMT of several paths passing through a common bottleneck. It is shown that the externality at the bottleneck is shared by the paths in proportion to their demand from the current time until the queue vanishes. This share of the externality is caused by the departure rate shift under first in first out (FIFO) and the externality propagates to the downstream bottlenecks. However, the externalities propagates to the downstream are calculated out if downstream bottlenecks exist. Therefore, the authors concluded that the path DMT can be evaluated without considering the propagation of the externalities, but just as in the evaluation of the path DMT for a single path passing through a series of bottlenecks between the origin and destination. Based on the DMT analysis, the authors finally proposed a heuristic solution algorithm and verified it by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical one.

Numerical investigation of mechanical and thermal dynamic properties of the industrial transformer

Industrial transformer is one of the most critical assets in the power and heavy industry. Failures of transformers can cause enormous losses. The poor joints of the electrical circuit on transformers can cause overheating and results in stress concentration on the structure which is the major cause of catastrophic failure. Few researches have been focused on the mechanical properties of industrial transformers under overheating thermal conditions. In this paper, both mechanical and thermal properties of industrial transformers are jointly investigated using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Dynamic response analysis is conducted on a modified transformer FEA model, and the computational results are compared with experimental results from literature to validate this simulation model. Based on the FEA model, thermal stress is calculated under different temperature conditions. These analysis results can provide insights to the understanding of the failure of transformers due to overheating, therefore are significant to assess winding fault, especially to the manufacturing and maintenance of large transformers.

Electrical imaging and fluid modeling of convective fingering in a shallow water-table aquifer

Unstable density-driven flow can lead to enhanced solute transport in groundwater. Only recently has the complex fingering pattern associated with free convection been documented in field settings. Electrical resistivity (ER) tomography has been used to capture a snapshot of convective instabilities at a single point in time, but a thorough transient analysis is still lacking in the literature. We present the results of a 2 year experimental study at a shallow aquifer in the United Arab Emirates that was designed to specifically explore the transient nature of free convection. ER tomography data documented the presence of convective fingers following a significant rainfall event. We demonstrate that the complex fingering pattern had completely disappeared a year after the rainfall event. The observation is supported by an analysis of the aquifer halite budget and hydrodynamic modeling of the transient character of the fingering instabilities. Modeling results show that the transient dynamics of the gravitational instabilities (their initial development, infiltration into the underlying lower-density groundwater, and subsequent decay) are in agreement with the timing observed in the time-lapse ER measurements. All experimental observations and modeling results are consistent with the hypothesis that a dense brine that infiltrated into the aquifer from a surficial source was the cause of free convection at this site, and that the finite nature of the dense brine source and dispersive mixing led to the decay of instabilities with time. This study highlights the importance of the transience of free convection phenomena and suggests that these processes are more rapid than was previously understood.

The effect of multiplayer dynamic difficulty adjustment on the player experience of video games

Multiplayer Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment (mDDA) is a method of reducing the difference in player performance and subsequent challenge in competitive multiplayer video games. As a balance of between player skill and challenge experienced is necessary for optimal player experience, this experimental study investigates the effects of mDDA and awareness of its presence on player performance and experience using subjective and biometric measures. Early analysis indicates that mDDA normalizes performance and challenge as expected, but awareness of its presence can reduce its effectiveness.

Modeling and analysis of a novel variable-speed cage induction generator

This paper introduces a novel cage induction generator and presents a mathematical model, through which its behavior can be accurately predicted. The proposed generator system employs a three-phase cage induction machine and generates single-phase and constant-frequency electricity at varying rotor speeds without an intermediate inverter stage. The technique uses any one of the three stator phases of the machine as the excitation winding and the remaining two phases, which are connected in series, as the power winding. The two-series-connected-and-one-isolated (TSCAOI) phase winding configuration magnetically decouples the two sets of windings, enabling independent control. Electricity is generated through the power winding at both sub- and super-synchronous speeds with appropriate excitation to the isolated single winding at any frequency of generation. A dynamic mathematical model, which accurately predicts the behavior of the proposed generator, is also presented and implemented in MATLAB/Simulink. Experimental results of a 2-kW prototype generator under various operating conditions are presented, together with theoretical results, to demonstrate the viability of the TSCAOI power generation. The proposed generator is simple and capable of both storage and retrieval of energy through its excitation winding and is expected to be suitable for applications, such as small wind turbines and microhydro systems.

A comparative analysis of the conservative bridge transition design approaches

Differential settlement at the bridge approach between the deck and rail track on ground is often considered as a source of challenging technical and economical problem. This caused by the sudden stiffness changes between the bridge deck and the track on ground, and changes in soil stiffness of backfill and sub-grade with soil moisture content and loading history. To minimise the negative social and economic impacts due to poor performances of railway tracks at bridge transition zones, it is important, a special attention to be given at design, construction and maintenance stages. It is critically challenging to obtain an appropriate design solution for any given site condition and most of the existing conventional design approaches are unable to address the actual on-site behaviour due to their inherent assumptions of continuity and lack of clarifying of the local effects. An evaluation of existing design techniques is considered to estimate their contributions to a potential solution for bridge transition zones. This paper analyses five different approaches: the Chinese Standard, the European Standard with three different approaches, and the Australian approach. Each design approach is used to calculate the layer thicknesses, accounting critical design features such as the train speed, the axle load, the backfill subgrade condition, and the dynamic loading response. Considering correlation between track degradation and design parameters, this paper concludes that there is still a need of an optimised design approach for bridge transition zones.

Keyword field-free conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data and extension for dynamic groups

We consider the following problem: a user stores encrypted documents on an untrusted server, and wishes to retrieve all documents containing some keywords without any loss of data confidentiality. Conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data have been studied by numerous researchers over the past few years, and all existing schemes use keyword fields as compulsory information. This however is impractical for many applications. In this paper, we propose a scheme of keyword field-free conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data, which affirmatively answers an open problem asked by Golle et al. at ACNS 2004. Furthermore, the proposed scheme is extended to the dynamic group setting. Security analysis of our constructions is given in the paper.

Stress relaxation analysis of single chondrocytes using porohyperelastic model based on AFM experiments

The aim of this study is to investigate the stress relaxation behavior of single chondrocytes using the Porohyperelastic (PHE) model and inverse Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Firstly, based on Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) technique, we have found that the chondrocytes exhibited stress relaxation behavior. We explored the mechanism of this stress relaxation behavior and concluded that the intracellular fluid exuding out from the cells during deformation plays the most important role in the stress relaxation. Next, we have applied the inverse FEA technique to determine necessary material parameters for PHE model to simulate this stress relaxation behavior as this model is proven capable of capturing the non-linear behavior and the fluid-solid interaction during the stress relaxation of the single chondrocytes. It is observed that this PHE model can precisely capture the stress relaxation behavior of single chondrocytes and would be a suitable model for cell biomechanics.

Determination of strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of living and fixed osteocytes and chondrocytes using atomic force microscopy and inverse finite element analysis

The aim of this paper is to determine the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of living and fixed osteocytes and chondrocytes, in vitro. Firstly, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was used to obtain the force-indentation curves of these single cells at four different strain-rates. These results were then employed in inverse finite element analysis (FEA) using Modified Standard neo-Hookean Solid (MSnHS) idealization of these cells to determine their mechanical properties. In addition, a FEA model with a newly developed spring element was employed to accurately simulate AFM evaluation in this study. We report that both cytoskeleton (CSK) and intracellular fluid govern the strain-rate-dependent mechanical property of living cells whereas intracellular fluid plays a predominant role on fixed cells’ behavior. In addition, through the comparisons, it can be concluded that osteocytes are stiffer than chondrocytes at all strain-rates tested indicating that the cells could be the biomarker of their tissue origin. Finally, we report that MSnHS is able to capture the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of osteocyte and chondrocyte for both living and fixed cells. Therefore, we concluded that the MSnHS is a good model for exploration of mechanical deformation responses of single osteocytes and chondrocytes. This study could open a new avenue for analysis of mechanical behavior of osteocytes and chondrocytes as well as other similar types of cells.

An analysis on the possibility of using capacitors of a three-level capacitor clamped inverter as power smoothing elements for wind power systems

This paper presents a new direct integration scheme for supercapacitors that are used to mitigate short term power fluctuations in wind power systems. The idea is to replace ordinary capacitors of a 3-level flying capacitor inverter by supercapacitors and operate them under variable voltage conditions. This approach eliminates the need of interfacing dc-dc converters for supercapacitor integration and thus considerably improves the overall efficiency. However, the major problem of this unique system is the change of supercapacitor voltages. An analysis on the effects of these voltage variations are presented. A space vector modulation method, built from the scratch, is proposed to generate undistorted current even in the presence of dynamic changes in supercapacitor voltages. A supercapacitor voltage equalisation algorithm is also proposed. Furthermore, resistive behavior of supercapacitors at high frequencies and the need for a low pass filter are highlighted. Simulation results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed system in suppressing short term wind power fluctuations.

The effect of trade openness on deforestation: empirical analysis for 142 countries

This study explores the effect of trade openness on deforestation. Previous studies do not find a clear effect of trade openness on deforestation. We use updated data on the annual rate of deforestation for 142 countries from 1990 to 2003, treat trade and income as endogenous, and take into consideration an adjustment process by applying a dynamic model. We find that an increase in trade openness increases deforestation for non-OECD countries while slowing down deforestation for OECD countries. There is a possibility that both capital-labor and environmental-regulation effects have a negative impact on deforestation in developing countries, whereas the opposite holds in developed countries. © 2012 Springer Japan.