Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil

In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to previous experiences, the current arrangement has important flaws that should be addressed. We discuss how it first led to high volatility and extremely high interest rates, which, when overcome, gave way to a long lasting appreciation of the real exchange rate with adverse consequences to industry.

Facilitating corporate entrepreneurial behavior: A study of corporate entrepreneurial behavior in corporate banking

This study discusses the pronounced importance of corporate entrepreneurial behavior, CEB, facilitation and enablement as a key dimension in the rapidly changing business environment within companies. The research target is a large finance company in Finland, where regulations, compliance and processes restrict and refine extensively business approach. The purpose of this study is to foster the understanding of corporate entrepreneurial behavior and requirements and identify the supporters and inhibitors of facilitation of it. Furthermore, this study examines who should be driving the implementation and offer concrete outcome for the company to get the facilitation started and berth it as part of the organizational culture and values. The theoretical background is constructed from literature related to concept of corporate entrepreneurial behavior, factors supporting and hindering the facilitation based on previous studies and innovation management. Furthermore theoretical framework of middle managers entrepreneurial behavior in facilitation process was researched. Additionally top down and bottom up approach of conversational space building within the organization in order to foster innovation and involving mindset and behavior was in the core literature. The empirical research conducted for the study consists three parts; innovation audit questionnaire, semi-structured interviews and secondary data from previously made research within the case company. Questionnaire and interviews were targeted to eight middle managers within the company, the head of branch regions in corporate segment. The secondary data was collected from over 300 employees in the case company by an external company. Research results were analyzed mainly by themes and source division in adaption with the theoretical framework. The study finds that facilitation of CEB should be a strategic choice and requires strong management support and examples. Behavior should be involved with organizational culture, values, structures and processes. The companies´ willingness to take risks and encourage employees at all levels to participate and be involved by taking ownership and responsibility is in the core. CEB is found to be a key dimension in increasing employee satisfaction and engagement, competitive advantages and economic growth of companies. There is increased interest towards CEB in the case company but there is lack in the mutual consensus of it. CEB is not in the strategy although the mindset and support from management is in place. There is no concrete enablement and space for innovation and CEB although the platform would be receptive. Further research is needed to build shared vision of CEB and how to make it a part of the organizational culture and values in addition to building the conversational space.

Corporate Entrepreneurship in Healthcare Organizations: An explorative study of employees’ corporate entrepreneurial behavior, job satisfaction and turnover intention

The Finnish healthcare industry is currently facing significant challenges due to economic crises, aging population and major structural reforms, which have resulted in decreased job satisfaction and increased levels of turnover. This proposes that healthcare organizations need to come up with new, creative means to tackle these issues. Several researchers have argued that corporate entrepreneurship may be the necessary means to achieve this. As previous research has mainly focused on examining this concept from organizational perspective, this study looks at how it occurs on the level of individual employees. The purpose of this study is to examine how corporate entrepreneurship is manifested in individual behavior, and how this type of behavior is associated with the individual’s job satisfaction and turnover intention. Additionally, this study will examine the differences in corporate entrepreneurial behavior between private and public sector organizations, as previous research suggests that these two may be characterized differently. Data was collected with the help of a literature review as well as a survey study, which was sent out to a number of employees of four different healthcare organizations, out of which three were public and one was a private sector organization. Six distinct behavioral characteristics were recognized in previous research, which make up the measure for corporate entrepreneurial behavior. Principal components were formed from the different areas of the survey (corporate entrepreneurial behavior, job satisfaction, turnover intention), after which the association of these components were examined with linear regression analysis, which proved that corporate entrepreneurial behavior is positively correlated with both job satisfaction and intention to leave the organization. Differences between sectors were analyzed with analysis of variance and cross tabulation analysis, but neither of these suggested that any significant differences would occur. These results suggest that employees who behave entrepreneurially tend to be more satisfied with their jobs, but also consider leaving their current organizations more often than others. This may be due to the fact that healthcare organizations are not fertile for entrepreneurial behavior, which will drive entrepreneurial individuals looking for employers who may be more supportive of this type of behavior. With growing levels of dissatisfaction as well as little room for entrepreneurial behavior, the studied organizations may actually be in the process of losing those employees who have the ability and desire to behave in such manner, and who could very well be those who will eventually come up with solutions for the major challenges that these organizations are facing.

Consumer Behavior in Mortgage Market: Evidence from Russia

The purpose of this master thesis is to identify behavioral patterns of potential borrower in mortgage market in crisis conditions and to link mortgage products available on Russian market with potential borrowers segments in dependence of detected patterns. Empirical results achieved through 172 answers of potential borrowers allowed to classify them in four groups in dependence of respondent perceptions about mortgage and future. On the basis of literature review and currently state of Russian mortgage market particular mortgage products were suggested to each of four clusters of potential borrowers. Then, recommendations for Russian banks how to apply received results were developed. Current master thesis has strong both academic and managerial contributions. It it adds significant value to existing consumer behavior studies; and provides practical recommendations for Russian banks how to understand mortgage borrower behavior in order to increase trust to mortgage among population.

Resolución N° 29 ¿Cuál es el control de la cámara de comercio respecto de la elección y nombramiento de miembros de junta directiva bajo el esquema de cociente electoral?

Servicios registrales

Resolución N° 76 ¿Cuál es el alcance del control de legalidad que tienen las cámaras respecto de los documentos sujetos a registro? ¿el cuociente electoral es obligatorio para la designación de juntas directivas?

Servicios registrales

A school-based cognitive behavior modification intervention strategy for learned helpless mentally retarded students

This study assessed the usefulness of a cognitive behavior modification (CBM) intervention package with mentally retarded students in overcoming learned helplessness and improving learning strategies. It also examined the feasibility of instructing teachers in the use of such a training program for a classroom setting. A modified single subject design across individuals was employed using two groups of three subjects. Three students from each of two segregated schools for the mentally retarded were selected using a teacher questionnaire and pupil checklist of the most learned helpless students enrolled there. Three additional learned helplessness assessments were conducted on each subject before and after the intervention in order to evaluate the usefulness of the program in alleviating learned helplessness. A classroom environment was created with the three students from each school engaged in three twenty minute work sessions a week with the experimenter and a tutor experimenter (TE) as instructors. Baseline measurements were established on seven targeted behaviors for each subject: task-relevant speech, task-irrelevant speech, speech denoting a positive evaluation of performance, speech denoting a negative evaluation of performance, proportion of time on task, non-verbal positive evaluation of performance and non-verbal negative evaluation of performance. The intervention package combined a variety of CBM techniques such as Meichenbaum's (1977) Stop, Look and Listen approach, role rehearsal and feedback. During the intervention each subject met with his TE twice a week for an individual half-hour session and one joint twenty minute session with all three students, the experimentor and one TE. Five weeks after the end of this experiment one follow up probe was conducted. All baseline, post-intervention and probe sessions were videotaped. The seven targeted behaviors were coded and comparisons of baseline, post intervention, and probe testing were presented in graph form. Results showed a reduction in learned helplessness in all subjects. Improvement was noted in each of the seven targeted behaviors for each of the six subjects. This study indicated that mentally retarded children can be taught to reduce learned helplessness with the aid of a CBM intervention package. It also showed that CBM is a viable approach in helping mentally retarded students acquire more effective learning strategies. Because the TEs (Tutor experimenters) had no trouble learning and implementing this program, it was considered feasible for teachers to use similar methods in the classroom.

Deviance of syntax in oral languages and oral reading behavior

The major hypothesis of this paper is that any deviance in syntax present in oral language will be evident in oral r eading behaviour. Using Lee and Canter's Developmental i 1 Sentence Scoring technique (1971) and Y. Goodman and Burke's Reading Miscue Inventory (1972) linguistic competence was established in t hree male children. ages 10 to 11. patterns of strengths and weaknesses in reading were determined. and the relationships t hat were established, were examined. Results of the study i ndicate that oral language behaviour is closely tied to oral r eading behaviour. This type of approach can be used as a basis for a diagnosis of a reading difficulty and then a prescription for language and reading skills.

Sexual behavior and factors affecting female reproduction in house and field crickets

The objective of this investigation was to clarify the adaptive significance of female sexual behaviours in the house cricket, Acheta domesticus, and the Texas field cricket, Gryllus integer. Experiments were focussed primarily on: nutritional factors affecting female reproductive success; the ontogeny of female sexual behaviours; female mating frequency and progeny production; and the pattern of sperm competition. Reproduction of singly mated female A. domesticus assigned to 3 nutritional regimes was compared . Females fed a vitamin and protein-enriched mouse chow, cannibalistic females, and starved females produced on the average, 513 , 200 and 68 offspring, respectively. Cannibals probably could not obtain the same amounts of essential nutrients as females fed mouse chow. Reabsorption of oocytes was likely the major factor contributing to the decreased reproduction of starved females. In addition, female !. domesticus fed mouse chow, but allowed constant access to males produced 11 times as many offspring than did females fed corn meal. Females fed corn meal probably could not absorb or synthesize enough dietary lipids, thus resulting in poor ovariole growth. Female !. domesticus first mate at an average adult age of 7 days, closely corresponding to when they first exhibit positive phonotaxis. Females mate repeatedly and often consume the externally attached spermatophore. In ~. domesticus, females allowed constant access to males produced significantly more offspring than did single maters. Similarly, doubly mated G. integer females produced more offspring than did single maters. This difference resulted largely from the failure of many single maters to reproduce. Remating by female crickets partly functions in offsetting the possibility of a failed initial mating. Nymph production increased significantly with the time the spermatophore was attached in singly mated ~. domesticus. Spermatophore consumption by the female was not affected by male guarding behaviour, and the interval between mating and eating of the spermatophore may often be shorter than the time required for maximum insemination. Some degree of sperm depletion in singly mated !. domesticus and G. integer may have occurred. The patterns of daily offspring production of singly and multiplymated females suggests that a factor provided by a male during mating stimulates female oviposition and/or egg production. Female crickets also might acquire nutrition from spermatophore consumption, a benefit that is augmented by female multiple mating. The electrophoretic examination of various allozymes in ~. integer did not permit determination of a pattern of sperm competition. However, the possibility of last male sperm predominance is related to male guarding behaviour.

The physical environment and organizational behavior

Research into organizational behaviour has indicated that there is an inevitable conflict between the needs of the individual and organizational demands. Psychologists have given insights into basic individual needs and contend that satisfaction of these needs constitutes a motivating force which enhances desired behavioural patterns. Behaviouralists have suggested that a basic and pervasive individual need is the culturally determined need for privacy. Anthropologists and environmental psychologists have shown that man's spatial behaviour is observable and predictable and that changes in the physical environment or the way it is perceived are accompanied by concommitant changes in behaviour. Research findings from each of the disciplines have been reviewed in an attempt to show that the physical environment is a significant factor in satisfying the needs of the individual organizational member, hence, a significant influence on organizational behaviour. A model has been generated to show the relationship between the physical setting and behaviour and to underscore the importance of making provisions within the physical setting for the attainment of a culturally determined optimal level of privacy. The physical setting, by providing for this need, becomes a significant factor in reducing the conflict between the individual and the organization and makes for acceptable role behaviour and the fulfilment of organizational goals.

The waning of the two giants: the electoral decline of the Italian Christian Democratic Party and the Italian Communist Party

Italy is currently experiencing profound political change. One aspect of this change involves the decline in electoral support for the Italian Christian Democratic Party (DC) and the Italian Communist Party (PCI), now the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS). Signs of the electoral decline of both parties began to appear in the late 1970s and early 1980s and accelerated in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The pr imar y purpos e of th is thes is is to expla i n the electoral decline of the DC and PCI/PDS in the last decade. The central question being addressed in this thesis is the following: What factors contributed to the decline in electoral support for the DC and PCI? In addition, the thesis attempts to better comprehend the change in magni tude and direction of the Italian party system. The thesis examines the central question within an analytical framework that consists of models explaining electoral change in advanced industrial democracies and in Italy. A review of the literature on electoral change in Italy reveals three basic models: structural (socioeconomic and demographic factors), subcultural (the decline of the Catholic and Communist subcultures), and pol i tical (factors such as party strategy, and the crisis and collapse of communism in iv Eastern Europe and the former soviet Union and the end to the Cold War). Significant structural changes have occurred in Italy, but they do not invariably hurt or benefit either party. The Catholic and Communist subcultures have declined in size and strength, but only gradually. More importantly, the study discovers that the decline of communism and party strategy adversely affected the electoral performances of the DC and PC!. The basic conclusion is that political factors primarily and directly contributed to the decline in electoral support for both parties, while societal factors (structural and subcultural changes) played a secondary and indirect role. While societal factors do not contribute directly to the decline in electoral support for both parties, they do provide the context within which both parties operated. In addition, the Italian party system is becoming more fragmented and traditional political parties are losing electoral support to new political movements, such as the Lega Nord (LN-Northern League) and the Rete (Network). The growing importance of the North-South and centre-periphery cleavages suggests that the Italian party system, which is traditionally based on religious and ideological cleavages, may be changing.

Immediate and enduring effects of corticosterone administration during adolescence and adulthood on anxiety and depressive behavior in male rats

Previous research has shown that the stress hormone corticosterone can increase depressive and anxiety-like behavior in rats as well as dampen the HPA response to a novel stressor (Kalynchuk et aI., 2004; Johnson et aI., 2006). Several studies have also shown that adolescence is a period of increased sensitivity to the negative effects of stressors (reviewed in McCormick et aI., 2010), which are often the result of exposure to corticosterone, and yet there is no research to date examining the effects of corticosterone administration during adolescence. The purpose of these experiments is to determine both the immediate and enduring effects of prolonged exposure to corticosterone in adolescence and adulthood on anxiety-like behavior, depressive behavior, and the HPA response. In Experiment 1 adolescent and adult rats were administered an injection of 40 mg/kg of corticosterone or vehicle daily for 16 days. Ha l f of the rats were then tested on the elevated plus maze (EPM) one day after their last injection, and the following day were tested on the forced swim test (FST). After the FST, which is a stressor, blood samples were collected at three time points, and the plasma concentrations of corticosterone were determined using a radioimmunoassay. The remaining rats were left undisturbed for three weeks, and then underwent the same testing as the first group. Corticosterone treatment had little effect on anxiety-like and depressive behavior, but it did alter the HPA response to the FST. In those rats tested soon after the period of injections, corticosterone dampened the HPA response as compared to vehicle treated rats in both adolescent and adult treated rats. For the adolescent treated rats that were tested several weeks later, corticosterone treatment increased HPA response as compared to the vehicle treated rats, but the same was not true for the adult treated rats. I t was hypothesized that the lack of behavioral effects of the corticosterone treatment may be the result of the vehicle injections inducing a stress response and thereby both groups would have similarly altered behavior. In Experiment 2 rats were administered corticosterone dissolved in their drinking water with 2.5% ethanol, or jus t the 2.5% ethanol or plain water, to determine the effects of corticosterone treatment without a stressor present. The regular drinking water was replaced with treated water for 16 days either during adulthood or adolescence, and as before, rats were either tested in the FST one day after the water was removed or three weeks later. Again there was no effect of treatment on depressive behavior. Similar to what was observed in Experiment 1, corticosterone treatment dampened the HPA response to a stressor for the rats tested soon after the treatment period. However, in Experiment 2 there was no effect of treatment on HPA response in those rats tested several weeks after they were treated. These results indicate that corticosterone can have a lasting effect on the HPA when administered in adolescence by injections but not in drinking water, which is likely because of the different schedules of exposure and rates of absorption between the two administration methods.

Unveiling the Influence of Consumer Wine Appreciation Dimension on Purchasing Behavior

Consumption values and different usage situations have received extensive interest from scholars; however, there is a lack of understanding regarding how these two constructs interact when it comes to the purchase decisions of consumers. This study examines the relationship between consumption values, consumption situations, and consumers’ purchasing decisions in terms of their willingness to pay and the purchase quantity. First of all, my model proposes that all four consumption values and different situations have a positive effect on consumers’ willingness to pay as well as the quantity they purchase. It also proposes that varying usage situations moderate the effect of consumption values on consumers’ purchasing decisions. In my conceptual model, I have also integrated the epistemic and conditional values where there is a gap in the existing literature. Prior literature has isolated the consumption values when studying how they affect consumer behavior and has not examined how consumption situations moderate the relationship between consumption values and purchasing decisions. Also, the existing literature has mostly focused on how consumption values affect purchase intentions, brand loyalty, or satisfaction, whereas my study focuses on purchasing decisions. For my study, the participants were randomly chosen from the general wine consumer population and the age range was between 20 and 75, which included 83 male respondents and 119 female respondents. The data received from my respondents support my hypotheses for the model. In my final chapter, I discuss the theoretical and managerial implications as well as suggestions for future research.

The Co-occurrence of Depressive Symptoms and Alcohol Use for Adolescent Boys and Girls: An Investigation of the Role of Self-Regulation and Approach Behavior

While many studies have been conducted on adolescent depressive symptoms and alcohol use, much of the research has examined these behaviors separately rather than examining their co-occurrence within individuals. In the present study, adolescents (N = 4412; 49% female) were surveyed at four time points (grade 9, 10, 11, and 12) and growth mixture modeling was used to identify groups of individuals reporting various patterns of depressive symptoms and alcohol use across the high school years. Four groups were identified, including co-occurrence (higher depressive symptoms and higher alcohol use relative to peers, comprising 6.1 % of boys and 7.1 % of the girls in the sample), pure depressive symptoms (higher depressive symptoms and lower alcohol use; 12.7% of boys and 12.5% of girls), pure alcohol use (higher alcohol use and lower depressive symptoms; 20.9% of boys and 19.9% of girls), and low co-occurrence (lower depressive symptoms and alcohol use, 60.3% of boys and 60.5% of girls). Groups were compared on self-regulatory (i.e., delay of gratification) and approach behaviors. For both boys and girls, delay of gratification was the strongest predictor of group membership, with the co-occurrence group scoring the lowest and the low co-occurrence group the highest. This finding emphasizes the importance of assessing delay of gratification in the identification of high risk youth.