Rural Income Generation and Diversification : A Case Study in Eastern Zambia

Rural income diversification has been found to be rather the norm than the exception in developing countries. Smallholder households tend to diversify their income sources because of the need to manage risks, secure a smooth flow of income, allocate surplus labour, respond to various kinds of market failures, and apply coping strategies. The Agricultural Household Model provides a theoretical rationale for income diversification in that rural households aim at maximising their utility. There are several elements involved, such as agricultural production for their own consumption and markets, leisure activities and income from non-farm sources. The aim of the present study is to enhance understanding of the processes of rural income generation and diversification in eastern Zambia. Specifically, it explores the relationship between household characteristics, asset endowments and income-generation patterns. According to the sustainable- rural-livelihoods framework, the assets a household possesses shape its capacity to seize new economic opportunities. The study is based on two surveys conducted among rural smallholder households in four districts of Eastern Province in Zambia in 1985/86 and 2003. Sixty-seven of the interviewed households were present in both surveys and this panel allows comparison between the two points of time. The initial descriptive analysis is complemented with an econometric analysis of the relationships between household assets and income sources. The results show that, on average, 30 per cent of the households income originated from sources outside their own agriculture. There was a slight increase in the proportion of non-farm income from 1985/86 to 2003, but total income clearly declined mainly on account of diminishing crop income. The land area the household was able to cultivate, which is often dependent on the available labour, was the most significant factor affecting both the household-income level and the diversification patterns. Diversification was, in most cases, a coping strategy rather than a voluntary choice. Measured as income/capita/day, all households were below the poverty line in 2003. The agricultural reforms in Zambia, combined with other trends such as changes in rainfall pattern, the worsening livestock situation and the incidence of human disease, had a negative impact on agricultural productivity and income between 1985/86 and 2003. Sources of non-farm income were closely linked to agriculture either upstream or downstream and the income they generated was not enough to compensate for the decline of agricultural income. Household assets and characteristics had a smaller impact on diversification patterns than expected, which could reflect the lack of opportunities in the remote rural environment.

Water-use efficiency and productivity trends in Australian irrigated cotton: a review

The aim of this review is to report changes in irrigated cotton water use from research projects and on-farm practice-change programs in Australia, in relation to both plant-based and irrigation engineering disciplines. At least 80% of the Australian cotton-growing area is irrigated using gravity surface-irrigation systems. This review found that, over 23 years, cotton crops utilise 6-7ML/ha of irrigation water, depending on the amount of seasonal rain received. The seasonal evapotranspiration of surface-irrigated crops averaged 729mm over this period. Over the past decade, water-use productivity by Australian cotton growers has improved by 40%. This has been achieved by both yield increases and more efficient water-management systems. The whole-farm irrigation efficiency index improved from 57% to 70%, and the crop water use index is >3kg/mm.ha, high by international standards. Yield increases over the last decade can be attributed to plant-breeding advances, the adoption of genetically modified varieties, and improved crop management. Also, there has been increased use of irrigation scheduling tools and furrow-irrigation system optimisation evaluations. This has reduced in-field deep-drainage losses. The largest loss component of the farm water balance on cotton farms is evaporation from on-farm water storages. Some farmers are changing to alternative systems such as centre pivots and lateral-move machines, and increasing numbers of these alternatives are expected. These systems can achieve considerable labour and water savings, but have significantly higher energy costs associated with water pumping and machine operation. The optimisation of interactions between water, soils, labour, carbon emissions and energy efficiency requires more research and on-farm evaluations. Standardisation of water-use efficiency measures and improved water measurement techniques for surface irrigation are important research outcomes to enable valid irrigation benchmarks to be established and compared. Water-use performance is highly variable between cotton farmers and farming fields and across regions. Therefore, site-specific measurement is important. The range in the presented datasets indicates potential for further improvement in water-use efficiency and productivity on Australian cotton farms.

Micro-economic drivers of profitability in an ITQ-managed fishery: An analysis of the Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery

An economic survey of the commercial operators currently active in the Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery has been carried out, as part of a research project aimed at evaluating alternative management options for this fishery. This paper presents the background analysis used as a basis to develop the sampling design for this survey. The background analysis focuses on activity patterns of the fleet based on effort and catch information, as well as patterns of quota ownership. Based on this information, a fishing business profile describing the micro-economic structure of fishing operations is developed. This profile, in conjunction with the qualitative information gained in undertaking the economic surveys, allows preliminary understanding of the key drivers of profitability in the CRFFF, and possible impacts of external factors on fishing operations.

Insights into PBDE uptake, body burden, and elimination gained from Australian age–Concentration trends observed shortly after peak exposure

Background Population pharmacokinetic models combined with multiple sets of age– concentration biomonitoring data facilitate back-calculation of chemical uptake rates from biomonitoring data. Objectives We back-calculated uptake rates of PBDEs for the Australian population from multiple biomonitoring surveys (top-down) and compared them with uptake rates calculated from dietary intake estimates of PBDEs and PBDE concentrations in dust (bottom-up). Methods Using three sets of PBDE elimination half-lives, we applied a population pharmacokinetic model to the PBDE biomonitoring data measured between 2002–2003 and 2010–2011 to derive the top-down uptake rates of four key PBDE congeners and six age groups. For the bottom-up approach, we used PBDE concentrations measured around 2005. Results Top-down uptake rates of Σ4BDE (the sum of BDEs 47, 99, 100, and 153) varied from 7.9 to 19 ng/kg/day for toddlers and from 1.2 to 3.0 ng/kg/day for adults; in most cases, they were—for all age groups—higher than the bottom-up uptake rates. The discrepancy was largest for toddlers with factors up to 7–15 depending on the congener. Despite different elimination half-lives of the four congeners, the age–concentration trends showed no increase in concentration with age and were similar for all congeners. Conclusions In the bottom-up approach, PBDE uptake is underestimated; currently known pathways are not sufficient to explain measured PBDE concentrations, especially in young children. Although PBDE exposure of toddlers has declined in the past years, pre- and postnatal exposure to PBDEs has remained almost constant because the mothers’ PBDE body burden has not yet decreased substantially.

The effect of pasture utilization rate on stocks of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in a semi-arid tropical grassland

The influence of grazing management on total soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil total nitrogen (TN) in tropical grasslands is an issue of considerable ecological and economic interest. Here we have used linear mixed models to investigate the effect of grazing management on stocks of SOC and TN in the top 0.5 m of the soil profile. The study site was a long-term pasture utilization experiment, 26 years after the experiment was established for sheep grazing on native Mitchell grass (Astrebla spp.) pasture in northern Australia. The pasture utilization rates were between 0% (exclosure) and 80%, assessed visually. We found that a significant amount of TN had been lost from the top 0.1 m of the soil profile as a result of grazing, with 80% pasture utilization resulting in a loss of 84 kg ha−1 over the 26-year period. There was no significant effect of pasture utilization rate on TN when greater soil depths were considered. There was no significant effect of pasture utilization rate on stocks of SOC and soil particulate organic carbon (POC), or the C:N ratio at any depth; however, visual trends in the data suggested some agreement with the literature, whereby increased grazing pressure appeared to: (i) decrease SOC and POC stocks; and, (ii) increase the C:N ratio. Overall, the statistical power of the study was limited, and future research would benefit from a more comprehensive sampling scheme. Previous studies at the site have found that a pasture utilization rate of 30% is sustainable for grazing production on Mitchell grass; however, given our results, we conclude that N inputs (possibly through management of native N2-fixing pasture legumes) should be made for long-term maintenance of soil health, and pasture productivity, within this ecosystem.

Large-scale characterization of drought pattern: a continent-wide modelling approach applied to the Australian wheatbelt – spatial and temporal trends

* Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. * Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. * Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. * Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates.

Stock assessment of the Queensland east coast common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) fishery

Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.

Economic consideration for reducing hospital presentations among patients with decompensated cirrhosis: not all presentations avoided can be considered equal

Individuals with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites requiring paracentesis utilize exceptionally high levels of hospital resources. Consequently, potential modifications to existing models of healthcare to assist patients in the management of their liver disease and reduce the need for hospital encounters have potential to improve patients’ health and reduce demand on acute hospital services. However, there is a paucity of data examining how much healthcare resources could be re-directed to interventions that prevent hospitalizations without net annual budgetary disadvantage (from the hospital’s perspective). The purpose of this study was to probabilistically examine how much healthcare resourcing could be saved per hospital presentation avoided among this clinical population.

Livelihood, land use and environment interactions in the highlands of East Africa

This study aims at improving understanding of the interactions of livelihoods and the environment focusing on both socio-economic and biodiversity implications of land use change in the context of population pressure, global and local markets, climate change, cultural and regional historical factors in the highlands of East Africa. The study is based on three components (1) two extensive livelihood surveys, one on Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and the other in the Taita Hills of Kenya, (2) a land use change study of the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro focusing on land use trends between 1960s and 1980s and 1980s and 2000 and (3) a bird diversity study focusing on the potential impacts of the future land use change on birds in the main land use types on the slopes and the adjacent plains of Mt. Kilimanjaro. In addition, information on the highlands in Embu and the adjacent lowlands in Mbeere of Kenya are added to the discussion. Some general patterns of livelihood, land use and environment interactions can be found in the three sites. However, the linkages are very complex. Various external factors at different times in history have influenced most of the major turning points. Farmers continually make small adaptations to their farming practices, but the locally conceived alternatives are too few. Farmers lack specific information and knowledge on the most suitable crops, market opportunities and the quality requirements for growing the crops for markets. Population growth emerges as the most forceful driver of land use and environmental change. The higher altitudes have become extremely crowded with population densities in some areas higher than typical urban population densities. Natural vegetation has almost totally been replaced by farmland. Decreasing farm size due to population pressure is currently threatening the viability of whole farming systems. In addition, capital-poor intensification has lead to soil fertility depletion. Agricultural expansion to the agriculturally marginal lowlands has created a new and distinct group of farmers struggling constantly with climate variability causing frequent crop failures. Extensification to the fragile drylands is the major cause of fragmentation and loss of wildlife habitat. The linkages between livelihoods, land use and the environment generally point to degradation of the environment leading to reduced environmental services and ecosystem functions. There is no indication that the system is self-regulating in this respect. Positive interventions will be needed to maintain ecosystem integrity.

Selecting and assessing social objectives for Australian fisheries management

This paper details Australian research that developed tools to assist fisheries managers and government agencies in engaging with the social dimension of industry and community welfare in fisheries management. These tools are in the form of objectives and indicators. These highlight the social dimensions and the effects of management plans and policy implementation on fishing industries and associated communities, while also taking into account the primacy of ecological imperatives. The deployment of these objectives and indicators initially provides a benchmark and, over the life of a management plan, can subsequently be used to identify trends in effects on a variety of social and economic elements that may be objectives in the management of a fishery. It is acknowledged that the degree to which factors can be monitored will be dependent upon resources of management agencies, however these frameworks provide a method for effectively monitoring and measuring change in the social dimension of fisheries management.Essentially, the work discussed in this paper provides fisheries management with the means to both track and begin to understand the effects of government policy and management plans on the social dimension of the fishing industry and its associated communities. Such tools allow the consideration of these elements, within an evidence base, into policy arrangements, and consequently provide an invaluable contribution to the ability to address resilience and sustainability of fishing industries and associated communities.

Invisible opportunities and irreversible trends

Small firms are always vulnerable to complex technological change that may render their existing business model obsolete. This paper emphasises the need to understand how the Internet's ubiquitous World Wide Web is impacting on their operating environments. Consideration of evolutionary theory and the absorptive capacity construct provides the foundation for discussion of how learning and discovery take place within individuals, firms and the environments that interact with. Small firms, we argue, face difficulties identifying what routines and competencies are best aligned with the seemingly invisible dominant designs that support pursuit of new enterprise in web-impacted environments. We argue that such difficulties largely relate to an inability to acquire external knowledge and the subsequent reliance on existing internal selection processes that may reinforce the known, at the expense of the unknown. The paper concludes with consideration as to how managers can overcome the expected difficulties through the development of internal routines that support the continual search, evaluation and acquisition of specific external knowledge.

Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20 through (i) reduced frost damage (~10 improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10 improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.

Fauna community trends during early restoration of alluvial open forest/woodland ecosystems on former agricultural land

Vertebrate fauna was studied over 10 years following revegetation of a Eucalyptus tereticornis ecosystem on former agricultural land. We compared four vegetation types: remnant forest, plantings of a mix of native tree species on cleared land, natural regeneration of partially cleared land after livestock removal, and cleared pasture land with scattered paddock trees managed for livestock production. Pasture differed significantly from remnant in both bird and nonbird fauna. Although 10 years of ecosystem restoration is relatively short term in the restoration process, in this time bird assemblages in plantings and natural regeneration had diverged significantly from pasture, but still differed significantly from remnant. After 10 years, 70 and 66% of the total vertebrate species found in remnant had been recorded in plantings and natural regeneration, respectively. Although the fauna assemblages within plantings and natural regeneration were tracking toward those of remnant, significant differences in fauna between plantings and natural regeneration indicated community development along different restoration pathways. Because natural regeneration contained more mature trees (dbh > 30 cm), native shrub species, and coarse woody debris than plantings from the beginning of the study, these features possibly encouraged different fauna to the revegetation areas from the outset. The ability of plantings and natural regeneration to transition to the remnant state will be governed by a number of factors that were significant in the analyses, including shrub cover, herbaceous biomass, tree hollows, time since fire, and landscape condition. Both active and passive restoration produced significant change from the cleared state in the short term.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the short run: The rate and sources of economic growth matter

This paper investigates the short-run effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement for 189 countries over the period 1961-2010. Contrary to what has previously been reported, we conclude that there is no strong evidence that the emissions-income elasticity is larger during individual years of economic expansion as compared to recession. Significant evidence of asymmetry emerges when effects over longer periods are considered. We find that economic growth tends to increase emissions not only in the same year, but also in subsequent years. Delayed effects - especially noticeable in the road transport sector - mean that emissions tend to grow more quickly after booms and more slowly after recessions. Emissions are more sensitive to fluctuations in industrial value added than agricultural value added, with services being an intermediate case. On the expenditure side, growth in consumption and growth in investment have similar implications for national emissions. External shocks have a relatively large emissions impact, and the short-run emissions-income elasticity does not appear to decline as incomes increase. Economic growth and emissions have been more tightly linked in fossil-fuel rich countries.