The remote distractor effect in saccade programming: channel interactions and lateral inhibition

We explored the dependency of the saccadic remote distractor effect (RDE) on the spatial frequency content of target and distractor Gabor patches. A robust RDE was obtained with low-medium spatial frequency distractors, regardless of the spatial frequency of the tat-get. High spatial frequency distractors interfered to a similar extent when the target was of the same spatial frequency. We developed a quantitative model based on lateral inhibition within an oculomotor decision unit. This lateral inhibition mechanism cannot account for the interaction observed between target and distractor spatial frequency, pointing to the existence of channel interactions at an earlier level. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

Verification of cloud-fraction forecasts

Cloud radar and lidar can be used to evaluate the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting the timing and placement of clouds, but care must be taken in choosing the appropriate metric of skill to use due to the non- Gaussian nature of cloud-fraction distributions. We compare the properties of a number of different verification measures and conclude that of existing measures the Log of Odds Ratio is the most suitable for cloud fraction. We also propose a new measure, the Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score, which has very attractive properties, being equitable (for large samples), difficult to hedge and independent of the frequency of occurrence of the quantity being verified. We then use data from five European ground-based sites and seven forecast models, processed using the ‘Cloudnet’ analysis system, to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on cloud fraction threshold (for binary skill scores), height, horizontal scale and (for the Met Office and German Weather Service models) forecast lead time. The models are found to be least skillful at predicting the timing and placement of boundary-layer clouds and most skilful at predicting mid-level clouds, although in the latter case they tend to underestimate mean cloud fraction when cloud is present. It is found that skill decreases approximately inverse-exponentially with forecast lead time, enabling a forecast ‘half-life’ to be estimated. When considering the skill of instantaneous model snapshots, we find typical values ranging between 2.5 and 4.5 days. Copyright c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Modelling bi-directional research: a fresh approach to stakeholder theory

Purpose – While Freeman's stakeholder management approach has attracted much attention from both scholars and practitioners, little empirical work has considered the interconnectedness of organisational perspectives and stakeholder perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to respond to this gap by developing and empirically testing a bi-directional model of organisation/stakeholder relationships. Design/methodology/approach – A conceptual framework is developed that integrates how stakeholders are affected by organisations with how they affect organisations. Quantitative data relating to both sides of the relationship are obtained from 700 customers of a European service organisation and analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling technique. Findings – The findings provide empirical support for the notion of mutual dependency between organisations and stakeholders as advocated by stakeholder theorists. The results suggest that the way stakeholders relate to organisations is dependent on how organisations relate to stakeholders. Originality/value – The study is original on two fronts: first, it provides a framework and process that can be used by researchers to model bi-directional research with other stakeholder groups and in different contexts. Second, the study presents an example application of bi-directional research by empirically linking organisational and stakeholder expectations in the case of customers of a UK service organisation.

Effects of the Allosteric Antagonist 1-(4-Chlorophenyl)-3-[3-(6-pyrrolidin-1-ylpyridin-2-yl)phenyl]urea (PSNCBAM-1) on CB1 Receptor Modulation in the Cerebellum

PSNCBAM-1 has recently been described as a cannabinoid CB1 receptor allosteric antagonist associated with hypophagic effects in vivo; however, PSNCBAM-1 effects on CB1 ligand-mediated modulation of neuronal excitability remain unknown. Here, we investigate PSNCBAM-1 actions on CB1 receptor-stimulated [35S]GTPγS binding in cerebellar membranes and on CB1 ligand modulation of presynaptic CB1 receptors at inhibitory interneurone-Purkinje cell (IN-PC) synapses in the cerebellum using whole-cell electrophysiology. PSNCBAM-1 caused non-competitive antagonism in [35S]GTPγS binding studies, with higher potency against the CB receptor agonist CP55940 than for WIN55,212-2 (WIN55). In electrophysiological studies, WIN55 and CP55940 reduced miniature inhibitory postsynaptic currents (mIPSCs) frequency, but not amplitude. PSNCBAM-1 application alone had no effect on mIPSCs; however, PSNCBAM-1 pre-treatment revealed agonist-dependent functional antagonism, abolishing CP55940-induced reductions in mIPSC frequency, but having no clear effect on WIN55 actions. The CB1 antagonist/inverse agonist AM251 increased mIPSC frequency beyond control, this effect was reversed by PSNCBAM-1. PSNCBAM-1 pre-treatment also attenuated AM251 effects. Thus, PSNCBAM-1 reduced CB1 receptor ligand functional efficacy in the cerebellum. The differential effect of PSNCBAM-1 on CP55940 versus WIN55 actions in [35S]GTPγS binding and electrophysiological studies and the attenuation of AM251 effects are consistent with the ligand-dependency associated with allosteric modulation. These data provide the first description of functional PSNCBAM-1 allosteric antagonist effects on neuronal excitability in the mammalian CNS. PSNCBAM-1 allosteric antagonism may provide viable therapeutic alternatives to orthosteric CB1 antagonists/inverse agonists in the treatment of CNS disease.

The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk.

'Agricultural poverty' and the expansion of artisanal mining in sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences from southwest Mali and southeast Ghana

Why do people engage in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) – labour-intensive mineral extraction and processing activity – across sub-Saharan Africa? This paper argues that ‘agricultural poverty’, or hardship induced by an over-dependency on farming for survival, has fuelled the recent rapid expansion of ASM operations throughout the region. The diminished viability of smallholder farming in an era of globalization and overreliance on rain-fed crop production restricted by seasonality has led hundreds of thousands of rural African families to ‘branch out’ into ASM, a move made to secure supplementary incomes. Experiences from Komana West in Southwest Mali and East Akim District in Southeast Ghana are drawn upon to illustrate how a movement into the ASM economy has impacted farm families, economically, in many rural stretches of sub-Saharan Africa.

Inertia in Japanese organizations: knowledge management routines and failure to innovate

This paper argues that features of Japanese organizations, previously held to be the foundations of innovation, change and flexibility, can equally be significant barriers to change, innovation and adaptation in turbulent economic environments. This paper draws on two in-depth case studies of Japanese organizations. It shows how, in both cases, these firms displayed specific weaknesses in the ways in which they integrate and bundle knowledge, in particular around their research and development (R&D) functions. Despite the adoption of strategies of technological innovation and internationalization, the data suggest that the pursuit of both strategies is beset by barriers of inertia. Embedded internal network connections and knowledge-sharing routines between central R&D and other divisions are inappropriate for the revised strategy. Existing external connections, with preferred suppliers and customers within keiretsu structures, and close relationships with existing R&D partners retard these firms' strategic flexibility. With a limited variety of latent routines, knowledge, capabilities and agency to draw on when needed, these firms have limited organizational responsiveness and high levels of path-dependency.

A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

What does the saving–investment (SI) relation really measure and how should the SI relation be measured? These are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allows to separate long and short to medium run parameter dependence. The new modeling framework is applied to uncover the determinants of the SI relation. Macroeconomic state variables such as openness, the age dependency ratio, government current and consumption expenditures are found to affect the SI relation significantly in the long run.

Spatio-temporal dependencies in functional connectivity in rodent cortical cultures

Models of functional connectivity in cortical cultures on multi-electrodes arrays may aid in understanding how cognitive pathways form and improve techniques that aim to interface with neuronal systems. To enable research on such models, this study uses both data- and model-driven approaches to determine what dependencies are present in and between functional connectivity networks derived from bursts of extracellularly recorded activity. Properties of excitation in bursts were analysed using correlative techniques to assess the degree of linear dependence and then two parallel techniques were used to assess functional connectivity. Three models presenting increasing levels of spatio-temporal dependency were used to capture the dynamics of individual functional connections and their consistencies were verified using surrogate data. By comparing network-wide properties between model generated networks and functional networks from data, complex interdependencies were revealed. This indicates the persistent co-activation of neuronal pathways in spontaneous bursts, as can be found in whole brain structures.

Holocene settlement shifts and paleoenvironments on the Central Iranian Plateau: investigating linked systems

For thousands of years, humans have inhabited locations that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, earthquakes, and floods. In order to investigate the extent to which Holocene environmental changes may have impacted on cultural evolution, we present new geologic, geomorphic, and chronologic data from the Qazvin Plain in northwest Iran that provides a backdrop of natural environmental changes for the simultaneous cultural dynamics observed on the Central Iranian Plateau. Well-resolved archaeological data from the neighbouring settlements of Zagheh (7170—6300 yr BP), Ghabristan (6215—4950 yr BP) and Sagzabad (4050—2350 yr BP) indicate that Holocene occupation of the Hajiarab alluvial fan was interrupted by a 900 year settlement hiatus. Multiproxy climate data from nearby lakes in northwest Iran suggest a transition from arid early-Holocene conditions to more humid middle-Holocene conditions from c. 7550 to 6750 yr BP, coinciding with the settlement of Zagheh, and a peak in aridity at c. 4550 yr BP during the settlement hiatus. Palaeoseismic investigations indicate that large active fault systems in close proximity to the tell sites incurred a series of large (MW ~7.1) earthquakes with return periods of ~500—1000 years during human occupation of the tells. Mapping and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) chronology of the alluvial sequences reveals changes in depositional style from coarse-grained unconfined sheet flow deposits to proximal channel flow and distally prograding alluvial deposits sometime after c. 8830 yr BP, possibly reflecting an increase in moisture following the early-Holocene arid phase. The coincidence of major climate changes, earthquake activity, and varying sedimentation styles with changing patterns of human occupation on the Hajiarab fan indicate links between environmental and anthropogenic systems. However, temporal coincidence does not necessitate a fundamental causative dependency.

Prediction of novel and analogous folds using fragment assembly and fold recognition

A number of new and newly improved methods for predicting protein structure developed by the Jones–University College London group were used to make predictions for the CASP6 experiment. Structures were predicted with a combination of fold recognition methods (mGenTHREADER, nFOLD, and THREADER) and a substantially enhanced version of FRAGFOLD, our fragment assembly method. Attempts at automatic domain parsing were made using DomPred and DomSSEA, which are based on a secondary structure parsing algorithm and additionally for DomPred, a simple local sequence alignment scoring function. Disorder prediction was carried out using a new SVM-based version of DISOPRED. Attempts were also made at domain docking and “microdomain” folding in order to build complete chain models for some targets.