Invisible walls: Do psychological barriers really exist in stock index levels?

We investigate whether the levels of a stock market index contain any evidence of a behavioural bias depending on the proximity of the index level to 'psychological barriers'. These are certain index levels (usually in multiples of 100) at which the market tends to stick before breaking out either up or down. Extant behavioural finance literature has attributed this to investors' subjective perception of 'something special' about certain index levels where in fact no rational economic basis exists for such a perception. We carry out an empirical analysis of the NASDAQ Composite index and find that barrier effects are indeed present in that stock index. We employ simulation analysis to validate of our obtained results.

R1SVM: a randomised nonlinear approach to large-scale anomaly detection

The problem of unsupervised anomaly detection arises in a wide variety of practical applications. While one-class support vector machines have demonstrated their effectiveness as an anomaly detection technique, their ability to model large datasets is limited due to their memory and time complexity for training. To address this issue for supervised learning of kernel machines, there has been growing interest in random projection methods as an alternative to the computationally expensive problems of kernel matrix construction and support vector optimisation. In this paper we leverage the theory of nonlinear random projections and propose the Randomised One-class SVM (R1SVM), which is an efficient and scalable anomaly detection technique that can be trained on large-scale datasets. Our empirical analysis on several real-life and synthetic datasets shows that our randomised 1SVM algorithm achieves comparable or better accuracy to deep autoen-coder and traditional kernelised approaches for anomaly detection, while being approximately 100 times faster in training and testing.

Aligning supplier evaluation with manufacturing competitive priorities. Results of an international survey in manufacturing and assembly industries

The aim of our research is to investigate a company’s purchasing and manufacturing competitive priorities jointly in order to uncover any relationships between them and also their effect on the supply chain tools implemented by the company. We assume that the supplier selection criteria of the companies reflect the true goals of the purchasing function and we take the purchasing function’s point of view to examine the aforementioned relationships. We use a multinational database for our empirical analysis which contains almost 700 companies from 20 countries and data that were acquired in 2009. We identified four different clusters which reflect a different level of supply chain tool implementation.

Macroeconomic determinants of contingent protection:the case of the European Union

Contingent Protection has grown to become an important trade restricting device. In the European Union, protection instruments like antidumping are used extensively. This paper analyses whether macroeconomic pressures may contribute to explain the variations in the intensity of antidumping protectionism in the EU. The empirical analysis uses count data models, applying various specification tests to derive the most appropriate specification. Our results suggest that the filing activity is inversely related to the macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, they confirm existing evidence for the US suggesting that domestic macroeconomic pressures are a more important determinant of contingent protection policy than external pressures.

Análisis de las variables de marketing que afectan al valor del cliente. La permanencia como variable controlable

To know how marketing variables affect customer value is essential for a company in order to be market and customer oriented, and to improve investment efficiency in both attracting and retaining customers. Thus, the assessment of the influence of marketing variables in customer value is of prime importance. This is recognized in many empirical studies of these variables, which address the impact of a single variable (or sets of a few variables) on customer value. A comprehensive, integrated assessment of all marketing variables and their interdependencies is an arduous and complex task for researchers and marketing managers. This research proposes a theoretical model of customer value that takes into account all significant marketing variables that have been partially addressed in empirical investigations of other researchers. These marketing variables include brand and reputation, point of sale, employees, price, termination fee commitment, discounts, complementarity of products, experiences, emotions, perceived value, quality, satisfaction, switching costs, and loyalty. The model incorporates the relationship between each variable with retention and with customer value as well as the relationships between them. A special focus is placed on the empirical analysis of the termination fee commitment and its relationship with customer value. This variable is widely used in the telecommunication’s industry for its influence on customer retention from the moment of purchase. However, there is strikingly little research in this topic. A large customer database of a telecommunications company containing five years information about 63.165 customers is used for this purpose. Multivariate linear regression and ANOVA method are applied...

Sartori reconsidered: toward a new predominant party system

Despite the success of his party systems theory, Giovanni Sartori’s predominant party system is a type that is consistently avoided by party systems scholars, yet the reasons for this have been unclear. This article exposes the flaws in Sartori’s predominant party system, but we also argue that it remains a useful concept and, consequently, that the literature’s rejection of predominance and retreat to the cruder dominance notion is unnecessary. Instead, we amend predominance to ensure its coherence within Sartori’s typology and consistency with his party systems theory. We show that our amendments improve the value of predominance as a category for empirical analysis of the effects of party systems.

EUNIS habitat's thresholds for the Western coast of the Iberian Peninsula — A Portuguese case study

The European Nature Information System (EUNIS) has been implemented for the establishment of a marine European habitats inventory. Its hierarchical classification is defined and relies on environmental variables which primarily constrain biological communities (e.g. substrate types, sea energy level, depth and light penetration). The EUNIS habitat classification scheme relies on thresholds (e.g. fraction of light and energy) which are based on expert judgment or on the empirical analysis of the above environmental data. The present paper proposes to establish and validate an appropriate threshold for energy classes (high, moderate and low) and for subtidal biological zonation (infralittoral and circalittoral) suitable for EUNIS habitat classification of the Western Iberian coast. Kineticwave-induced energy and the fraction of photosynthetically available light exerted on the marine bottom were respectively assigned to the presence of kelp (Saccorhiza polyschides, Laminaria hyperborea and Laminaria ochroleuca) and seaweed species in general. Both data were statistically described, ordered fromthe largest to the smallest and percentile analyseswere independently performed. The threshold between infralittoral and circalittoral was based on the first quartile while the ‘moderate energy’ class was established between the 12.5 and 87.5 percentiles. To avoid data dependence on sampling locations and assess the confidence interval a bootstrap technique was applied. According to this analysis,more than 75% of seaweeds are present at locations where more than 3.65% of the surface light reaches the sea bottom. The range of energy levels estimated using S. polyschides data, indicate that on the IberianWest coast the ‘moderate energy’ areas are between 0.00303 and 0.04385 N/m2 of wave-induced energy. The lack of agreement between different studies in different regions of Europe suggests the need for more standardization in the future. However, the obtained thresholds in the present study will be very useful in the near future to implement and establish the Iberian EUNIS habitats inventory.

Impacto del Programa de Alimentación Escolar en el Trabajo Infantil: Una aproximación desde la toma de decisiones familiares

Esta investigación analiza el impacto del Programa de Alimentación Escolar en el trabajo infantil en Colombia a través de varias técnicas de evaluación de impacto que incluyen emparejamiento simple, emparejamiento genético y emparejamiento con reducción de sesgo. En particular, se encuentra que este programa disminuye la probabilidad de que los escolares trabajen alrededor de un 4%. Además, se explora que el trabajo infantil se reduce gracias a que el programa aumenta la seguridad alimentaria, lo que consecuentemente cambia las decisiones de los hogares y anula la carga laboral en los infantes. Son numerosos los avances en primera infancia llevados a cabo por el Estado, sin embargo, estos resultados sirven de base para construir un marco conceptual en el que se deben rescatar y promover las políticas públicas alimentarias en toda la edad escolar.

Choques al hogar, trabajo Infantil y acumulación de capital humano : evidencia para Colombia

En este trabajo se estima el efecto que tienen distintos choques a los hogares sobre el logro académico de los niños. Mediante un modelo de regresión lineal, se encuentra un efecto adverso de la presencia de choques sobre el puntaje de la prueba Saber 11. Además, los resultados sugieren que el trabajo infantil es un mecanismo por el cual los choques afectan negativamente la acumulación de capital humano. Al explorar efectos heterogéneos por sexo y edad, las estimaciones indican que el efecto de los choques es guiado por los hombres y los adolescentes mayores a 14 años.

Modelo predictivo para uso del condón y consumo de alcohol como conductas de riesgo relacionadas con el contagio de VIH/SIDA en trabajadoras sexuales de Bogotá- 2015

Objetivo: Determinar un modelo predictivo para uso del condón y consumo de alcohol como conductas de riesgo relacionadas el contagio de VIH/Sida en mujeres trabajadoras sexuales de la ciudad de Bogotá en el año 2015. Métodos Estudio de tipo transversal con diseño observacional, se tomaron 255 mujeres trabajadoras sexuales de la ciudad de Bogotá; La información analizada fue tomada del estudio realizado en cinco ciudades de Colombia en el año 2015, las hipótesis planteadas se soportaron en la asociación entre las condiciones sociodemográficas, de conocimiento, practicas, hábitos, apoyo social y de ocupación propia de las mujeres trabajadoras sexuales que podían explicar y predecir la adopción de conductas riesgosas para VIH/sida como son el uso del condón y el consumo de alcohol en ejercicio de su ocupación. Resultados El promedio de edad de inicio en el trabajo sexual fue 22,1±7,1 años, tres cuartas partes son solteras y residen en estrato dos y tres; el 96,5% dijo usar el condón con el último cliente y el 27,8% de ellas consumió alcohol durante su último servicio. En la conducta de riesgo uso del condón, se encontraron asociados entre otras, la edad [OR=1,10(1,03-1,17)], vivir en estrato dos [OR=7,7(1,5-39,5)], el ingreso por trabajo sexual [OR=1,0(1,0-1,0)], la disponibilidad del condón para el servicio [OR=0,03(0,008-0,16)] y contar con otro método de planificación (ligadura de trompas) [OR=4,47(1,0-18,3)]. En la conducta de riesgo consumo de alcohol, se encontró asociado ente otros: estrato socioeconómico dos [OR=5,8(1,54-22,3)], nivel de escolaridad secundaria [OR=0,12(0,16-0,96)], vivir con otros familiares [OR=3,45(1,7-7,02)], ingreso por trabajo sexual [OR=1,0(1,0-1,0)] y el sitio donde se ofrece el servicio [OR=0,07(0,04-0,15)]. Después de ajustar, se encontró que las variables que mejor explican el uso del condón fueron edad [OR=1,1(1,02-1,17)] y disponibilidad del condón [OR=0,04(0,008-0,024)], el modelo tuvo poca sensibilidad 33,3% y buena capacidad predictiva (84,6%). Las variables que mejor explicaron el consumo de alcohol durante el servicio fueron edad [OR= 0,95(0,91-0,98)], Número de clientes por semana [OR=0,9(0,90-0,98)], sitio donde ofrece el servicio [OR=7,1(3,45-14,8)], y estrato socioeconómico [OR=1,8 (0,90-3,83)], resultando un modelo con buena sensibilidad (71,8%) y buena capacidad predictiva (86,4%). Conclusiones Aspectos como la edad, el estrato socioeconómico, escolaridad, estado civil, ingreso económico por trabajo sexual, edad de inicio en el trabajo sexual, número de clientes antiguos en la última semana, disponibilidad del condón para prestar el servicio y ligadura de trompas como método diferente de planificación, se asociaron estadísticamente con el uso del condón. Sin embargo al ajustar las variables solo la edad y la disponibilidad del condón se mantuvieron como variables explicativas. Cabe anotar, que aunque el modelo mostró buena capacidad predictiva (84,6%), la precisión en sus estimaciones fue baja debido a la poca frecuencia del no uso del condón con el ultimo cliente (3,5%), y la sensibilidad del modelo apenas fue del 33,3%. Por otro lado, factores como la edad, el estrato socioeconómico, nivel educativo, ingreso económico, sitio de oferta del servicio, composición familiar, número de hijos, número de clientes atendidos en la última semana y número de clientes antiguos mostraron asociación estadística con el consumo de alcohol. Sin embargo, al ajustar las variables solo edad, estrato socioeconómico, sitio donde se ofrece el servicio y número de clientes por semana mantuvieron asociación estadística; observándose además que el estrato socioeconómico (uno y dos) y sitio donde se ofrece el servicio (establecimiento), son factores de riesgo para el consumo de alcohol en ejercicio de la ocupación y la poca edad y un número reducido de clientes por semana se comportan como factores de protección para el consumo de alcohol. El modelo predictivo que se desarrolló para la conducta de riesgo de consumo de alcohol, con una sensibilidad del 71,8% y un poder predictivo del 86,4%. .

An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level Analysis for the Colombian Economy

We use a large firm level data set to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment(FDI) in Colombia. We estimate econometric models for the determinants of the probabilitythat a firm receives FDI, as well as for the factors that help to explain the foreign share in afirm’s capital. The results show that firms listed on the stock market, involved in foreign tradeactivities, and operating in sectors with greater capital intensity are more likely to be recipientsof FDI. Also, the probability of a firm receiving FDI is directly related to its size.