Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

IL28B polymorphism is significantly correlated with ifn anti-viral effectiveness already on first day of pegylated interferon-alpha and ribavirin therapy of chronic HCV infection

Background and Aims: Recently, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in IL28B were shown to correlate with response to pegylated interferon-a (IFN) and ribavirin therapy of chronic HCV infection. However, the cause for the SNPs effect on therapy response and its application for direct anti-viral (DAV) treatment are not clear. Here, we analyze early HCV kinetics as function of IL28B SNPs to determine its specific effect on viral dynamics. Methods: IL28B SNPs rs8099917, rs12979860 and rs12980275 were genotyped in 252 chronically HCV infected Caucasian naïve patients (67% HCV genotype 1, 28% genotype 2-3) receiving peginterferonalfa- 2a (180 mg/qw) plus ribavirin (1000-1200 mg/qd) in the DITTO study. HCV-RNA was measured (LD = 50 IU/ml) frequently during first 28 days. Results: RVR was achieved in 33% of genotype 1 patients with genotype CC at rs12979860 versus 12-16% for genotypes TT and CT (P < 0.03). Significant (P < 0.001) difference in viral decline was observed already at day 1 (see Figure). First phase decline was significantly (P < 0.001) larger in patients with genotype CC (2.0 log) than for TT and CT genotypes (0.6 and 0.8), indicating IFN anti-viral effectiveness in blocking virion production of 99% versus 75-84%. There was no significant association between second phase slope and rs12979860 genotype in patients with a first phase decline larger than 1 log. HCV kinetics as function of IL28b SNP. The same trend (not shown) was observed for HCV genotype 2-3 patients with different SNP genotype distribution that may indicate differential selection pressure as function of HCV genotype. Similar results were observed for SNPs rs8099917 and rs12980275, with a strong linkage disequilibrium among the 3 loci allowing to define the composite haplotype best associated with IFN effectiveness. Conclusions: IFN effectiveness in blocking virion production/ release is strongly affected by IL28B SNPs, but not other viral dynamic properties such as infected cell loss rate. Thus, IFN based therapy, as standard-of-care or in combination with DAV, should consider IL28B SNPs for prediction and personalized treatment, while response to pure DAV treatment may be less affected by IL28B SNPs. Additional analyses are undergoing to pinpoint the SNP effect on IFN anti-viral effectiveness.

An Introduction to parametric and non-parametric models for bivariate positive insurance claim severity distributions

We present a real data set of claims amounts where costs related to damage are recorded separately from those related to medical expenses. Only claims with positive costs are considered here. Two approaches to density estimation are presented: a classical parametric and a semi-parametric method, based on transformation kernel density estimation. We explore the data set with standard univariate methods. We also propose ways to select the bandwidth and transformation parameters in the univariate case based on Bayesian methods. We indicate how to compare the results of alternative methods both looking at the shape of the overall density domain and exploring the density estimates in the right tail.

A well-posedness theory in measures for some kinetic models of collective motion

We present existence, uniqueness and continuous dependence results for some kinetic equations motivated by models for the collective behavior of large groups of individuals. Models of this kind have been recently proposed to study the behavior of large groups of animals, such as flocks of birds, swarms, or schools of fish. Our aim is to give a well-posedness theory for general models which possibly include a variety of effects: an interaction through a potential, such as a short-range repulsion and long-range attraction; a velocity-averaging effect where individuals try to adapt their own velocity to that of other individuals in their surroundings; and self-propulsion effects, which take into account effects on one individual that are independent of the others. We develop our theory in a space of measures, using mass transportation distances. As consequences of our theory we show also the convergence of particle systems to their corresponding kinetic equations, and the local-in-time convergence to the hydrodynamic limit for one of the models.

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Is the thymus a target organ in infectious diseases?

The thymus is a central lymphoid organ, in wich T cell precursors differentiale and generate most of the so-called T cell reprtoire. Along with a variety of acute infectious diseases, we and others determined important changes in both microenvironmental and lymphoid compartments of the organ. For example, one major and common feature observed in acute viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases, is a depletion of cortical thymocytes, mostly those bearing the CD4-CD8 double positive phenotype. This occurs simmultaneously to the relative enrichment in medullary CD4 or CD8 single positive cells, expressing high densities of the CD3 complex. Additionally we noticed a variety of changes in the thymic microenvironment (and particularly is epithelial component), comprising abnormal location of thymic epithelial cell subsets as well has a denser Ia-bearing cellular network. Moreover, the extracellular matrix network was altered with an intralobular increase of basement membrane proteins that positively correlated with the degree of thymocyte death. Lastly, anti-thymic cell antibodies were detected in both human and animal models of infectious diseases, and in some of them a phenomenon of molecular mimicry could be evidenced. Taken together, the data receiwed herein clearly show that the thymus should be regarded as a target in infectious diseases.

Developmental critical period in gentic redox dysregulation: animal and human studies in schizophrenia

Converging evidence favors an abnormal susceptibility to oxidative stress in schizophrenia. Decreased levels of glutathione (GSH), the major cellular antioxidant and redox regulator, was observed in cerebrospinal-fluid and prefrontal cortex of patients. Importantly, abnormal GSH synthesis of genetic origin was observed: Two case-control studies showed an association with a GAG trinucleotide repeat (TNR) polymorphism in the GSH key synthesizing enzyme glutamate-cysteine-ligase (GCL) catalytic subunit (GCLC) gene. The most common TNR genotype 7/7 was more frequent in controls, whereas the rarest TNR genotype 8/8 was three times more frequent in patients. The disease associated genotypes (35% of patients) correlated with decreased GCLC protein, GCL activity and GSH content. Similar GSH system anomalies were observed in early psychosis patients. Such redox dysregulation combined with environmental stressors at specific developmental stages could underlie structural and functional connectivity anomalies. In pharmacological and knock-out (KO) models, GSH deficit induces anomalies analogous to those reported in patients. (a) morphology: spine density and GABA-parvalbumine immunoreactivity (PV-I) were decreased in anterior cingulate cortex. KO mice showed delayed cortical PV-I at PD10. This effect is exacerbated in mice with increased DA from PD5-10. KO mice exhibit cortical impairment in myelin and perineuronal net known to modulate PV connectivity. (b) physiology: In cultured neurons, NMDA response are depressed by D2 activation. In hippocampus, NMDA-dependent synaptic plasticity is impaired and kainate induced g-oscillations are reduced in parallel to PV-I. (c) cognition: low GSH models show increased sensitivity to stress, hyperactivity, abnormal object recognition, olfactory integration and social behavior. In a clinical study, GSH precursor N-acetyl cysteine (NAC) as add on therapy, improves the negative symptoms and decreases the side effects of antipsychotics. In an auditory oddball paradigm, NAC improves the mismatched negativity, an evoked potential related to pre-attention and to NMDA receptors function. In summary, clinical and experimental evidence converge to demonstrate that a genetically induced dysregulation of GSH synthesis combined with environmental insults in early development represent a major risk factor contributing to the development of schizophrenia Conclusion Based on these data, we proposed a model for PSIP1 promoter activity involving a complex interplay between yet undefined regulatory elements to modulate gene expression.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Regulation of the akt signalling in human skeletal muscle atrophy

Abstract : The term "muscle disuse" is often used to refer collectively to reductions in neuromuscular activity as observed with sedentary lifestyles, reduced weight bearing, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic heart failure, spinal cord injury, sarcopenia or exposure to microgravity (spaceflight). Muscle disuse atrophy, caused by accelerated proteolysis, is predominantly due to the activation of the ATP-dependent ubiquitin (Ub) proteasome pathway. The current advances in understanding the molecular factors contributing to the Ub-dependent proteolysis process have been made mostly in rodent models of human disease and denervation with few investigations performed directly in humans. Recently, in mice, the genes Atrogin-1 and MuRF1 have been designated as primary candidates in the control of muscle atrophy. Additionally, the decreased activity of the Akt/GSK-3ß and Akt/mTOR pathways has been associated with a reduction in protein synthesis and contributing to skeletal muscle atrophy. Therefore, it is now commonly accepted that skeletal muscle atrophy is the result of a decreased protein synthesis concomitant with an increase in protein degradation (Glass 2003). Atrogin-1 and MuRF1 are genes expressed exclusively in muscle. In mice, their expression has been shown to be directly correlated with the severity of atrophy. KO-mice experiments showed a major protection against atrophy when either of these genes were deleted. Skeletal muscle hypertrophy is an important function in normal postnatal development and in the adaptive response to exercise. It has been shown, in vitro, that the activation of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI-3K), by insulin growth factor 1 (IGF-1), stimulates myotubes hypertrophy by activating the downstream pathways, Akt/GSK-3ß and Akt/mTOR. It has also been demonstrated in mice, in vivo, that activation of these signalling pathways causes muscle hypertrophy. Moreover, the latter were recently proposed to also reduce muscle atrophy by inhibiting the FKHR mediated transcription of several muscle atrophy genes; Atrogin-1 and MuRF1. Therefore, these targets present new avenues for developing further the understanding of the molecular mechanisms involved in both skeletal muscle atrophy and hypertrophy. The present study proposed to investigate the regulation of the Akt/GSK-3ß and Akt/mTOR signalling pathways, as well as the expression levels of the "atrogenes", Atrogin-1 and MuRF1, in four human models of skeletal muscle atrophy. In the first study, we measured the regulation of the Akt signalling pathway after 8 weeks of both hypertrophy stimulating resistance training and atrophy stimulation de-training. As expected following resistance training, muscle hypertrophy and an increase in the phosphorylation status of the different members of the Akt pathway was observed. This was paralleled by a concomitant decrease in FOXO1 nuclear protein content. Surprisingly, exercise training also induced an increase in the, expression of the atrophy genes and proteins involved in the ATP-dependant ubiquitin-proteasome system. On the opposite, following the de-training period a muscle atrophy, relative to the post-training muscle size, was measured. At the same time, the phosphorylation levels of Akt and GSK-3ß were reduced while the amount of FOXO1 in the nucleus increased. After the atrophy phase, there was also a reduction in Atrogin-1 and MuRF1 contents. In this study, we demonstrate for the first time in healthy human skeletal muscle, that the regulation of Akt and its downstream targets GSK-3ß, mTOR and FOXO1 are associated with both thé skeletal muscle hypertrophy and atrophy processes. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease characterized by the loss of both upper and lower motor neurons, which leads to severe muscle weakness and atrophy. All measurements were performed in biopsies from 22 ALS patients and 16 healthy controls. ALS patients displayed an increase in Atrogin-1 mRNA and protein content which was associated with a decrease in Akt activity. However there was no difference in the mRNA and phospho-protein content of FOXO1, FOXO3a, p70S6K and GSK-3ß. The transcriptional regulation of human Atrogin-1 may be controlled by an Akt-mediated transcription factor other than FKHR or via an other signalling pathway. Chronic complete spinal cord injury (SCI) is associated with severe muscle atrophy which is linked to co-morbidity factors such as diabetes, obesity, lipid disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Molecular mechanisms associated with chronic complete SCI-related muscle atrophy are not well understood. The aim of the present study was to determine if there was an increase in catabolic signalling targets such as Atrogin-1, MuRF1, FOXO and myostatin, and decreases in anabolic signalling targets such as IGF, Akt, GSK-3ß, mTOR, 4E-BP1 and p-70S6K in chronic complete SCI patients. All measurements were performed in biopsies taken from 8 complete chronic SCI patients and 7 age matched healthy controls. In SCI patients when compared with controls, there was a significant reduction in mRNA levels of Atrogin1, MuRF1 and Myostatin. Protein levels for Atrogin-1, FOX01 and FOX03a were also reduced. IGF-1 and both phosphorylated GSK-3ß and 4E-BP1 were decreased; the latter two in an Akt and mTOR independent manner, respectively. Reductions in Atrogin-1, MuRF1, FOXO and myostatin suggest the existence of an internal mechanism aimed at reducing further loss of muscle proteins during chronic SCI. The downregulation of signalling proteins regulating anabolism such as IGF, GSK3ß and 4E-BP1 would reduce the ability to increase protein synthesis rates in this chronic state of muscle wasting. The molecular mechanisms controlling age-related skeletal muscle loss in humans are poorly understood. The present study aimed to investigate the regulation of several genes and proteins involved in the activation of key signalling pathways promoting muscle hypertrophy such as GH/STAT5/IGF, IGF/Akt/GSK-3ß/4E-BP1 and muscle atrophy such as TNFα/SOCS3 and Akt/FOXO/Atrogin-1 or MuRF1 in muscle biopsies from 13 young and 16 elderly men. In the older, as compared with the young subjects, TNFα and SOCS-3 were increased while growth hormone receptor protein (GHR) and IGF-1 mRNA were both decreased. Akt protein levels were increased however no change in phosphorylated Akt content was observed. GSK-3ß phosphorylation levels were increased while 4E-BP1 was not changed. Nuclear FKHR and FKHRL1 protein levels were decreased, with no changes in their atrophy target genes, Atrogin-1 and MuRF1. Myostatin mRNA and protein levels were significantly elevated. Human sarcopenia may be linked to a reduction in the activity or sensitivity of anabolic signalling proteins such as GHR, IGF and Akt. TNFα, SOCS-3 and myostatin are potential candidates influencing this anabolic perturbation. In conclusion our results support those obtained in rodent or ín vitro models, and demonstrate Akt plays a pivotal role in the control of muscle mass in humans. However, the Akt phosphorylation status was dependant upon the model of muscle atrophy as Akt phosphorylation was reduced in all atrophy models except for SCI. Additionally, the activity pattern of the downstream targets of Akt appears to be different upon the various human models. It seems that under particular conditions such as spinal cord injury or sarcopenia, .the regulation of GSK-3ß, 4eBP1 and p70S6K might be independent of Akt suggesting alternative signalling pathways in the control of these the anabolic response in human skeletal muscle. The regulation of Atrogin-1 and MuRF1 in some of our studies has been shown to be also independent of the well-described Akt/FOXO signalling pathway suggesting that other transcription factors may regulate human Atrogin-1 and MuRF1. These four different models of skeletal muscle atrophy and hypertrophy have brought a better understanding concerning the molecular mechanisms controlling skeletal muscle mass in humans.

Theoretical aspects of graph models for MANETs

We survey the main theoretical aspects of models for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs). We present theoretical characterizations of mobile network structural properties, different dynamic graph models of MANETs, and finally we give detailed summaries of a few selected articles. In particular, we focus on articles dealing with connectivity of mobile networks, and on articles which show that mobility can be used to propagate information between nodes of the network while at the same time maintaining small transmission distances, and thus saving energy.

Ichthyosen : Pathophysiologische Modelle der epidermalen Differenzierung [The ichthyoses : Pathophysiological models of epidermal differentiation].

The ichthyoses are a heterogeneous group of monogenetically inherited disorders of cornification, and characterized clinically by scaling or hyperkeratosis. Historically, they were classified by clinical features and inheritance patterns. As a result of the recent molecular biological revolution, the ichthyoses are now recognized as comprising many diverse entities. Importantly, identical phenotypes may be caused by mutations in multiple genes, while mutations in a single gene may result in multiple and sometimes widely divergent phenotypes. The considerable complexity of this clinically and genetically heterogeneous group of disorders has prompted the need for a new classification. A classification that uses terminology based on a combination of the clinical and molecular genetic details, for instance loricrin keratoderma, is desirable. In this chapter we will use in principle the nosology adopted recently by an international group of experts at the First Ichthyosis Consensus Conference in Sorèz, France.