Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

The Cyndi Lauper affect : bodies, girlhood and popular culture [Abstract]

Using a collective biography method informed by a Deleuzian theoretical approach (Davies & Gannon, 2009), this paper analyses embodied memories of girlhood becomings through affective engagements with resonating images in media and popular culture. In this approach to analysis we move beyond an impasse in some feminist cultural studies where studies of popular culture have been understood through theories of representation and reception that retain a sense of discrete subjectivity and linear effects. In these approaches, analysis focuses respectively on decoding and deciphering images in terms of their normative and ideological baggage, and, particularly with moving images, on psychological readings (Coleman, 2011; Driscoll, 2002). Understanding bodies and popular culture through Deleuzian notions of ‘becoming’ and ‘assemblage’ opens possibilities for feminist researchers to consider the ways in which bodies are not separate to images but rather, are known, felt, materialised and mobilised with/through images (Coleman, 2008, 2009, 2011). We tease out the implications of this new approach to media affects through two memories of girls’ engagements with media images, reconceived as moments of embodied being within affective flows of popular culture that might momentarily extend upon the ways of being and doing girlhood.

Judicial intervention in the affairs of unincorporated religious associations in New South Wales

The leading Australian High Court case of Cameron v Hogan (1934) 51 CLR 358 confirmed that associations which are 'social, sporting, political, scientific, religious, artistic or humanitarian in character’, and not formed ‘for private gain or material advantage’, are usually formed on a basis of mutual consent. Unless there is some clear, positive indication that the members wish to relate to each other in a legal fashion, the rules of the association will not be treated as an enforceable contract in contrast to the rules of incorporated bodies. Australian unincorporated associations experiencing internal disputes, like those in most other common law jurisdictions, have found courts reluctant to provide a remedy unless there is a proprietary interest or trust to protect. This is further compounded by the judicial view that an unincorporated association has no legal recognition as a ‘juristic person’. The right to hold property and the ability to sue and be sued are incidences of this recognition. By contrast, the law recognises ‘artificial’ legal persons such as corporations, who are given rights to hold property and to sue and be sued. However, when a number of individuals associate together for a non-commercial, lawful purpose, but not by way of a corporate structure, legal recognition ‘as a group’ is denied. Since 1934, a significant number of cases have distinguished or otherwise declined to follow this precedent of the High Court. A trenchant criticism is found in McKinnon v Grogan [1974] 1 NSWLR 295, 298 where Wootten J said that ‘citizens are entitled to look to the courts for the same assistance in resolving disputes about the conduct of sporting, political and social organisations as they can expect in relation to commercial institutions’. According to Wootten J at 298, if disputes are not settled by the courts, this would create a ‘legal-no-man's land, in which disputes are settled not in accordance with justice and the fulfilment of deliberately undertaken obligations, but by deceit, craftiness, and an arrogant disregard of rights’. Cameron v Hogan was decided in 1934. There is an increasing volume of first instance cases which distinguish or, in the words of Palmer J, ‘just pay lip service’ to this High Court decision. (Coleman v Liberal Party of Australia (2007) 212 FLR 271, 278). The dissenting cases seem to call for a judicial policy initiative. This would require recognition by judges that voluntary associations play a significant role in society and that members have a legitimate, enforceable expectation that the rules of the association will be observed by members and in the last resort, enforced by the courts without the need to prove contractual intention, the existence of a trust or the existence of a right of a proprietary nature. This thesis asks: what legal, as distinct from political, redress does an ordinary member have, when a rule is made or a process followed which is contrary to the underlying doctrines and philosophies embodied in the constitutional documents of an unincorporated religious association? When, if at all, will a court intervene to ensure doctrinal purity or to supervise the daily life of a large unincorporated religious association? My research objective is to examine and analyse leading cases and relevant legislation on the enforceability of the constitutions of large, unincorporated, religious associations with particular reference to the Anglican Church in New South Wales. Given its numerical size, wide geographical spread and presence since the foundation of New South Wales, the Anglican Church in New South Wales, contains a sufficient variety of ‘real life’ situations to be representative of the legal issues posed by Cameron v Hogan which may be faced by other large, unincorporated, religious associations in New South Wales. In contemporary society, large, unincorporated, religious associations play an important community role. The resolution of internal disputes in such associations should not remain captive to legal doctrines of an earlier age.

Blocking layer optimisation of poly(3-hexylthiopene)based solid state dye sensitized solar cells

The optimisation study of the fabrication of a compact TiO2 blocking layer (via Spray Pyrolysis Deposition) for poly (3-hexylthiopene) (P3HT) for Solid State Dye Sensitized Solar Cells (SDSCs) is reported. We used a novel spray TiO2 precursor solution composition obtained by adding acetylacetone to a conventional formulation (Diisopropoxytitanium bis (acetylacetonate) in ethanol). By Scanning Electron Microscopy a TiO2 layer with compact morphology and thickness of around 100 nmis shown. Through a Tafel plot analysis an enhancement of the device diode-like behaviour induced by the acetylacetone blocking layer respect to the conventional one is observed. Significantly, the device fabricatedwith the acetylacetone blocking layer shows an overall increment of the cell performance with respect to the cellwith the conventional one (DJsc/Jsc = +13.8%, DFF/FF = +39.7%, DPCE/PCE = +55.6%). A conversion efficiency optimumis found for 15 successive spray cycles where the diode-like behaviour of the acetylacetone blocking layer is more effective. Over three batches of cells (fabricated with P3HT and dye D35) an average conversion efficiency value of 3.9% (under a class A sun simulator with 1 sun A.M. 1.5 illumination conditions) was measured. From the best cell we fabricated a conversion efficiency value of 4.5% was extracted. This represents a significant increment with respect to previously reported values for P3HT/dye D35 based SDSCs.

The Cyndi Lauper affect : bodies, girlhood and popular culture

Using a collective biography method informed by a Deleuzian theoretical approach (Davies and Gannon 2009, 2012), this article analyses embodied memories of girlhood becomings through affective engagements with resonating images in media and popular culture. In this approach to analysis we move beyond the impasse in some feminist cultural studies where studies of popular culture have been understood through theories of representation and reception that retain a sense of discrete subjectivity and linear effects. In these approaches, analysis focuses respectively on decoding and deciphering images in terms of their normative and ideological baggage, and, particularly with moving images, on psychological readings. Understanding bodies and popular culture through Deleuzian notions of “becoming” and “assemblage” opens possibilities for feminist researchers to consider the ways in which bodies are not separate from images but are, rather, becomings that are known, felt, materialized and mobilized with/through images(Coleman 2008a, 2008b, 2008c, 2009, 2011; Ringrose and Coleman 2013). We tease out the implications of this new approach to media affects through three memories of girls’ engagements with media images, reconceived as moments of embodied being within affective flows of popular culture that might momentarily extend upon ways of being and doing girlhood.

Principles of Taxation Law 2013

Taxation law can be an incredibly complex subject to absorb, particularly when time is limited. Written specifically for students, Principles of Taxation Law 2013 brings much needed clarity to this area of law. Utilising many methods to make this often daunting subject achievable, particular features of the 2013 edition include: • seven parts: overview and structure, principles of income, deductions and offsets, timing issues, investment and business entities, tax avoidance and administration, and indirect taxes; • clearly structured chapters within those parts grouped under helpful headings; • flowcharts, diagrams and tables, end of chapter practice questions, and case summaries; • an appendix containing all of the up to date and relevant rates; and • the online self-testing component mentor, which provides questions for students of both business and law. Every major aspect of the Australian tax system is covered, with chapters on topics such as goods and services tax, superannuation, offsets, partnerships, capital gains tax, trusts, company tax and tax administration. All chapters have been thoroughly revised. Principles of Taxation Law 2013 is the perfect tool to guide the reader from their initial exposure to the subject to success in taxation law exams.

Australian Tax Analysis : Cases, Commentary, Commercial Applications and Questions [9th Ed.]

Now in its ninth edition, Australian Tax Analysis: Cases, Commentary, Commercial Applications and Questions has a proven track record as a high-level work for students of taxation law written by a team of authors with many years experience. Taking into account the fact that the volume of material needed to be processed by today’s taxation student can be overwhelming, the well-chosen extracts and thought-provoking commentary in Australian Tax Analysis, 9th edition, provide readers with the depth of knowledge, and reasoning and analytical skills which will be required of them as practitioners. In addition to the carefully selected case extracts and the helpful commentary, each chapter is supplemented by engaging practice questions involving problem solving, commercial decision-making, legal analysis and quantitative application. All these elements combined make Australian Tax Analysis an invaluable aid to the understanding of a subject which can be both technical and complex.

Asymptomatic hypoechoic regions on patellar tendon ultrasound : a 4-year clinical and ultrasound followup of 46 tendons

Patellar tendon ultrasound appearance is commonly used in clinical practice to diagnose patellar tendinopathy and guide management. Using a longitudinal study design we examined whether or not the presence of a hypoechoic ultrasonographic lesion in an asymptomatic patellar tendon conferred a risk for developing jumper's knee compared with a tendon that was ultrasonographically normal. Ultrasonographic, symptomatic and anthropometric assessment was completed at baseline and followup. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed on four tendons that resolved ultrasonographically in the study period. Forty-six patellar tendons were followed over 47 ± 11.8 months. Eighteen tendons were hypoechoic at baseline and 28 were ultrasonographically normal. Five tendons resolved ultrasonographically in the study period. Magnetic resonance imaging in four of these tendons was normal. Seven normal patellar tendons at baseline developed a hypoechoic area but only two became symptomatic. Analysis of ultrasonography at baseline and clinical outcome with Fisher's exact test shows there is no association between baseline ultrasound changes and symptoms at followup. In this study there is no statistically significant relationship between ultrasonographic patellar tendon abnormalities and clinical outcome in elite male athletes. Management of jumper's knee should not be solely based on ultrasonographic appearance; clinical assessment remains the cornerstone of appropriate management.

Maiden, Joseph

Joseph Henry Maiden was born in London in 1859 and sailed for Australia in 1880, where he lived for the remainder of his life. He was an ardent Australian nationalist, and like many immigrants of this time, remained proud of his British heritage. His sweetheart, Eliza Jane Hammond, followed him to Australia in 1883. They married in Kew the day after she made port in Melbourne, and together in Sydney they raised five children. [1] During the first phase of his career Maiden presided over the Technological Museum of Sydney from 1882 to 1896. In the second phase, he was the director of the Sydney Botanic Gardens from 1896 to 1924. There he managed a whole complex of parks including the Domain,Centennial Park and the Governor's residences, a state nursery at Campbelltown and a scientific institution, the National Herbarium of New South Wales, devoted to botany. A short time after his retirement, he died at his home in Turramurra in 1925...

Principles of Taxation Law 2014 [7th Edition]

"Taxation law can be an incredibly complex subject to absorb, particularly when time is limited. Written specifically for students, Principles of Taxation Law 2014 brings much needed clarity to this area of law. Utilising many methods to make this often daunting subject achievable, particular features of the 2014 edition include: seven parts: overview and structure, principles of income, deductions and offsets, timing issues, investment and business entities, tax avoidance and administration, and indirect taxes; clearly structured chapters within those parts grouped under helpful headings;flowcharts, diagrams and tables, end of chapter practice questions, and case summaries; an appendix containing all of the up to date and relevant rates; and the online self-testing component mentor, which provides questions for students of both business and law. Every major aspect of the Australian tax system is covered, with chapters on topics such as goods and services tax, superannuation, offsets, partnerships, capital gains tax, trusts, company tax and tax administration.All chapters have been thoroughly revised"-- Publishers website

Improved molecular tools for sugar cane biotechnology

Sugar cane is a major source of food and fuel worldwide. Biotechnology has the potential to improve economically-important traits in sugar cane as well as diversify sugar cane beyond traditional applications such as sucrose production. High levels of transgene expression are key to the success of improving crops through biotechnology. Here we describe new molecular tools that both expand and improve gene expression capabilities in sugar cane. We have identified promoters that can be used to drive high levels of gene expression in the leaf and stem of transgenic sugar cane. One of these promoters, derived from the Cestrum yellow leaf curling virus, drives levels of constitutive transgene expression that are significantly higher than those achieved by the historical benchmark maize polyubiquitin-1 (Zm-Ubi1) promoter. A second promoter, the maize phosphonenolpyruvate carboxylate promoter, was found to be a strong, leaf-preferred promoter that enables levels of expression comparable to Zm-Ubi1 in this organ. Transgene expression was increased approximately 50-fold by gene modification, which included optimising the codon usage of the coding sequence to better suit sugar cane. We also describe a novel dual transcriptional enhancer that increased gene expression from different promoters, boosting expression from Zm-Ubi1 over eightfold. These molecular tools will be extremely valuable for the improvement of sugar cane through biotechnology.

An improved chemically inducible gene switch that functions in the monocotyledonous plant sugar cane

Chemically inducible gene switches can provide precise control over gene expression, enabling more specific analyses of gene function and expanding the plant biotechnology toolkit beyond traditional constitutive expression systems. The alc gene expression system is one of the most promising chemically inducible gene switches in plants because of its potential in both fundamental research and commercial biotechnology applications. However, there are no published reports demonstrating that this versatile gene switch is functional in transgenic monocotyledonous plants, which include some of the most important agricultural crops. We found that the original alc gene switch was ineffective in the monocotyledonous plant sugar cane, and describe a modified alc system that is functional in this globally significant crop. A promoter consisting of tandem copies of the ethanol receptor inverted repeat binding site, in combination with a minimal promoter sequence, was sufficient to give enhanced sensitivity and significantly higher levels of ethanol inducible gene expression. A longer CaMV 35S minimal promoter than was used in the original alc gene switch also substantially improved ethanol inducibility. Treating the roots with ethanol effectively induced the modified alc system in sugar cane leaves and stem, while an aerial spray was relatively ineffective. The extension of this chemically inducible gene expression system to sugar cane opens the door to new opportunities for basic research and crop biotechnology.

Parent's socio-economic status and social support as risks for child mortality : consideration of health equity in The Gambia

A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.

Exploring Australian intensive care physicians clinical judgement during donation after cardiac death : an exploratory qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Donation after Cardiac Death (DCD) is one possible solution to the world wide organ shortage. Intensive care physicians are central to DCD becoming successful since they are responsible for making the clinical judgements and decisions associated with DCD. Yet international evidence shows health care professionals have not embraced DCD and are often reluctant to consider it as an option for patients. PURPOSE: To explore intensive care physicians' clinical judgements when selecting a suitable DCD candidate. METHODS: Using interpretative exploratory methods six intensive care physicians were interviewed from three hospital sites in Australia. Following verbatim transcription, data was subjected to thematic analysis. FINDINGS: Three distinct themes emerged. Reducing harm and increasing benefit was a major focus of intensive care physicians during determination of DCD. There was an acceptance of DCD if there was clear evidence that donation was what the patient and family wanted. Characteristics of a defensible decision reflected the characteristics of sequencing, separation and isolation, timing, consensus and collaboration, trust and communication to ensure that judgements were robust and defensible. The final theme revealed the importance of minimising uncertainty and discomfort when predicting length of survival following withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment. CONCLUSION: DCD decisions are made within an environment of uncertainty due to the imprecision associated with predicting time of death. Lack of certainty contributed to the cautious and collaborative strategies used by intensive care physicians when dealing with patients, family members and colleagues around end-of-life decisions, initiation of withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment and the discussion about DCD. This study recommends that nationally consistent policies are urgently needed to increase the degree of certainty for intensive care staff concerning the DCD processes.