Efficient Evaluation of Multidimensional Time-Varying Density Forecasts

We propose two simple evaluation methods for time varying density forecasts of continuous higher dimensional random variables. Both methods are based on the probability integral transformation for unidimensional forecasts. The first method tests multinormal densities and relies on the rotation of the coordinate system. The advantage of the second method is not only its applicability to any continuous distribution but also the evaluation of the forecast accuracy in specific regions of its domain as defined by the user’s interest. We show that the latter property is particularly useful for evaluating a multidimensional generalization of the Value at Risk. In simulations and in an empirical study, we examine the performance of both tests.

Dynamic Density Forecasts for Multivariate Asset Returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the “negative tail” of the joint distribution.

Genetic Algorithm Search for Predictive Patterns in Multidimensional Time Series

Based on an algorithm for pattern matching in character strings, we implement a pattern matching machine that searches for occurrences of patterns in multidimensional time series. Before the search process takes place, time series are encoded in user-designed alphabets. The patterns, on the other hand, are formulated as regular expressions that are composed of letters from these alphabets and operators. Furthermore, we develop a genetic algorithm to breed patterns that maximize a user-defined fitness function. In an application to financial data, we show that patterns bred to predict high exchange rates volatility in training samples retain statistically significant predictive power in validation samples.

Bax and the 'Celtic North'

A feature of scholarship on Arnold Bax is his indebtedness, in his early works, to the Irish literary revival (particularly in the mythology-suffused works of 'AE' and early Yeats) and, in his later works, to the music of Jean Sibelius, and the relationship between these periods. I argue that this relationship, which I summarize by using Bax's portmanteau term of 'Celtic North', is underpinned by the stimulus of landscape, which, as well as being a means by which to return to the Romantic idea of the sublime, also provides a means by which Bax critiques the more modernist relationship with landscape that underpins the English pastoral school of the 1920s. Thus the 'Celtic North' is the antithesis to the English 'south land' of Vaughan Williams and others.

Common Breast Cancer Susceptibility Alleles and the Risk of Breast Cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers: Implications for Risk Prediction

The known breast cancer susceptibility polymorphisms in FGFR2, TNRC9/TOX3, MAP3K1, LSP1, and 2q35 confer increased risks of breast cancer for BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. We evaluated the associations of 3 additional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs4973768 in SLC4A7/NEK10, rs6504950 in STXBP4/COX11, and rs10941679 at 5p12, and reanalyzed the previous associations using additional carriers in a sample of 12,525 BRCA1 and 7,409 BRCA2 carriers. Additionally, we investigated potential interactions between SNPs and assessed the implications for risk prediction. The minor alleles of rs4973768 and rs10941679 were associated with increased breast cancer risk for BRCA2 carriers (per-allele HR - 1.10, 95% CI: 1.03-1.18, P - 0.006 and HR - 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01-1.19, P = 0.03, respectively). Neither SNP was associated with breast cancer risk for BRCA1 carriers, and rs6504950 was not associated with breast cancer for either BRCA1 or BRCA2 carriers. Of the 9 polymorphisms investigated, 7 were associated with breast cancer for BRCA2 carriers (FGFR2, TOX3, MAP3K1, LSP1, 2q35, SLC4A7, 5p12, P 7 = 10 x (11) - 0.03), but only TOX3 and 2q35 were associated with the risk for BRCA1 carriers (P = 0.0049, 0.03, respectively). All risk-associated polymorphisms appear to interact multiplicatively on breast cancer risk for mutation carriers. Based on the joint genotype distribution of the 7 risk-associated SNPs in BRCA2 mutation carriers, the 5% of BRCA2 carriers at highest risk (i.e., between 95th and 100th percentiles) were predicted to have a probability between 80% and 96% of developing breast cancer by age 80, compared with 42%

Evaluation of a candidate breast cancer associated SNP in ERCC4 as a risk modifier in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Results from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/BRCA2 (CIMBA)

BACKGROUND: In this study we aimed to evaluate the role of a SNP in intron I of the ERCC4 gene (rs744154), previously reported to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in the general population, as a breast cancer risk modifier in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

Entrapping homogeneous catalysts by sol-gel methods: the bottom-up synthesis of catalysts that recycle and cascade

Perspective and front cover article: Homogeneous catalysts entrapped in silica matrices, including ionic liquid containing 'ionogels', exhibit high selectivity, unexpected activity and excellent recyclability.

Analysis of transduction in wastewater bacterial populations by targeting the phage-derived 16S rRNA gene sequences

Bacterial 16S rRNA genes transduced by bacteriophages were identified and analyzed in order to estimate the extent of the bacteriophage-mediated horizontal gene transfer in the wastewater environment. For this purpose, phage and bacterial DNA was isolated from the oxidation tank of a municipal wastewater treatment plant. Phylogenetic analysis of the 16S rRNA gene sequences cloned from a phage metagenome revealed that bacteriophages transduce genetic material in several major groups of bacteria. The groups identified were as follows: Betaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Actinomycetales and Firmicutes. Analysis of the 16S rRNA gene sequences in the total bacterial DNA from the same sample revealed that several bacterial groups found in the oxidation tank were not present in the phage metagenome (e.g. Deltaproteobacteria, Nitrospira, Planctomycetes and many Actinobacteria genera). These results suggest that transduction in a wastewater environment occurs in several bacterial groups; however, not all species are equally involved into this process. The data also showed that a number of distinctive bacterial strains participate in transduction-mediated gene transfer within identified bacterial groupings. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis confirmed that profiles of the transduced 16S rRNA gene sequences and those present in the whole microbial community show significant differences.

Activation of Alkanes by Gold-Modified Lanthanum Oxide

Functionalization of alkanes is much sought after for the production of fine and bulk chemicals. In particular, the oxidative activation of alkanes and their conversion to ethene and propene has been studied extensively, owing to the use of these alkenes in polymerization reactions. The greater reactivity of the products in comparison with the reactants has proven a major issue in this reaction as this can result in overoxidation, producing CO and CO2 and, therefore, reducing the alkene yield. Herein, the first application of supported gold catalysts for the direct activation of C2+ aliphatic alkanes with oxygen to form alkenes is demonstrated. This catalyst is particularly notable as it is highly active, selective to propene and ethene, and stable on stream over a 48 h period. Maintaining cationic gold is thought to be critical for the stability and this catalyst design provides the possibility of applying gold-based catalysts over a much wider temperature range than has been reported.

Applications of colloidal gas aphrons for pollution remediation

This work reviews the use of micron sized bubbles made from aqueous surfactant solution in environmental remediation. This is a novel technique and offers a low cost treatment option.

Examination of the Silver Colloid Binding Behavior of Disulfide-Tethered Bipyridine Ligands and Their fac-Tricarbonylrhenium(I) Complexes

The syntheses of 2,2'-bipyridin-5-ylmethyl-5-(1,2-dithiolan-3-yl)pentanoate (L1) and N-(2,2'-bipyridin-5-ylmethyl)-5-(1,2-dithiolan-3-yl)pentanamide (L2) and their neutral fac carbonylrhenium(I) complexes [Re(L1)(CO)(3)Br] and [Re(L2)(CO)(3)Br] are reported. The. electronic absorption and emission spectra of the complexes are similar to the spectrum of the reference compound [Re(bipy)(CO)(3)Br] and correlate well with the density functional theory calculations undertaken. The surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) spectra (excited at both 532 and 785 nm) of the ligands and complexes were examined and compared to the spectrum of ethyl 5-(1,2-dithiolan-3-yl)pentanoate (L3), revealing that there is very little contribution to the spectra of these species from the dithiolated alkyl chains. The spectra are dominated by the characteristic peaks of a metalated 2,2'-bipyridyl group,arising from the silver colloid/ion complexation, and the rhenium center. The rhenium complexes show weak SERS bands related to the CO stretches and a broad band at 510 cm(-1) assigned to Re-CO stretching. Concentration dependent studies, measured by the relative intensity of several assigned peaks, indicate that, as the surface coverage increases, the bipyridine moiety lifts off the surface In the case of L1 and L2, this gives rise to complexes with silver at low concentration, enhancing the signals observed, while for the tricarbonylbromorhenium complexes of these ligands, the presence of the disulfide tether allows an enhancement in the limits of detection of these surface-borne species of 20 times in the case of [ReL2(CO)(3)Br] over [Re(bipy)(CO)(3)Br].