Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Semiparametric Approach for Solving the Discrete Calibration Problem

In this article, we introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian approach based on Dirichlet process priors for the discrete calibration problem in binomial regression models. An interesting topic is the dosimetry problem related to the dose-response model. A hierarchical formulation is provided so that a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is developed. The methodology is applied to simulated and real data.

On the skew-normal calibration model

In this article, we present the EM-algorithm for performing maximum likelihood estimation of an asymmetric linear calibration model with the assumption of skew-normally distributed error. A simulation study is conducted for evaluating the performance of the calibration estimator with interpolation and extrapolation situations. As one application in a real data set, we fitted the model studied in a dimensional measurement method used for calculating the testicular volume through a caliper and its calibration by using ultrasonography as the standard method. By applying this methodology, we do not need to transform the variables to have symmetrical errors. Another interesting aspect of the approach is that the developed transformation to make the information matrix nonsingular, when the skewness parameter is near zero, leaves the parameter of interest unchanged. Model fitting is implemented and the best choice between the usual calibration model and the model proposed in this article was evaluated by developing the Akaike information criterion, Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion and Hannan-Quinn criterion.

Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

Reliability Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation in Parallel Systems

Relevant results for (sub-)distribution functions related to parallel systems are discussed. The reverse hazard rate is defined using the product integral. Consequently, the restriction of absolute continuity for the involved distributions can be relaxed. The only restriction is that the sets of discontinuity points of the parallel distributions have to be disjointed. Nonparametric Bayesian estimators of all survival (sub-)distribution functions are derived. Dual to the series systems that use minimum life times as observations, the parallel systems record the maximum life times. Dirichlet multivariate processes forming a class of prior distributions are considered for the nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the component distribution functions, and the system reliability. For illustration, two striking numerical examples are presented.

Skew-normal linear calibration: a Bayesian perspective

In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for estimation in the skew-normal calibration model, as well as the conditional posterior distributions which are useful for implementing the Gibbs sampler. Data transformation is thus avoided by using the methodology proposed. Model fitting is implemented by proposing the asymmetric deviance information criterion, ADIC, a modification of the ordinary DIC. We also report an application of the model studied by using a real data set, related to the relationship between the resistance and the elasticity of a sample of concrete beams. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for the Generalized Lognormal Distribution Applied to Failure Time Analysis

There are several versions of the lognormal distribution in the statistical literature, one is based in the exponential transformation of generalized normal distribution (GN). This paper presents the Bayesian analysis for the generalized lognormal distribution (logGN) considering independent non-informative Jeffreys distributions for the parameters as well as the procedure for implementing the Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior distributions of parameters. The results are used to analyze failure time models with right-censored and uncensored data. The proposed method is illustrated using actual failure time data of computers.

Pharmacogenetics of Warfarin: Development of a Dosing Algorithm for Brazilian Patients

A dosing algorithm including genetic (VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genotypes) and nongenetic factors (age, weight, therapeutic indication, and cotreatment with amiodarone or simvastatin) explained 51% of the variance in stable weekly warfarin doses in 390 patients attending an anticoagulant clinic in a Brazilian public hospital. The VKORC1 3673G>A genotype was the most important predictor of warfarin dose, with a partial R(2) value of 23.9%. Replacing the VKORC1 3673G>A genotype with VKORC1 diplotype did not increase the algorithm`s predictive power. We suggest that three other single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (5808T>G, 6853G>C, and 9041G>A) that are in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with 3673G>A would be equally good predictors of the warfarin dose requirement. The algorithm`s predictive power was similar across the self-identified ""race/color"" subsets. ""Race/color"" was not associated with stable warfarin dose in the multiple regression model, although the required warfarin dose was significantly lower (P = 0.006) in white (29 +/- 13 mg/week, n = 196) than in black patients (35 +/- 15 mg/week, n = 76).

Signal Processing and patternrecognition algorithm for monitoringParkinson’s disease.

This masters thesis describes the development of signal processing and patternrecognition in monitoring Parkison’s disease. It involves the development of a signalprocess algorithm and passing it into a pattern recogniton algorithm also. Thesealgorithms are used to determine , predict and make a conclusion on the study ofparkison’s disease. We get to understand the nature of how the parkinson’s disease isin humans.

Solving the Vehicle Routing Problem with Genetic ALgorithm and Simulated Annealing

This Thesis Work will concentrate on a very interesting problem, the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP). In this problem, customers or cities have to be visited and packages have to be transported to each of them, starting from a basis point on the map. The goal is to solve the transportation problem, to be able to deliver the packages-on time for the customers,-enough package for each Customer,-using the available resources- and – of course - to be so effective as it is possible.Although this problem seems to be very easy to solve with a small number of cities or customers, it is not. In this problem the algorithm have to face with several constraints, for example opening hours, package delivery times, truck capacities, etc. This makes this problem a so called Multi Constraint Optimization Problem (MCOP). What’s more, this problem is intractable with current amount of computational power which is available for most of us. As the number of customers grow, the calculations to be done grows exponential fast, because all constraints have to be solved for each customers and it should not be forgotten that the goal is to find a solution, what is best enough, before the time for the calculation is up. This problem is introduced in the first chapter: form its basics, the Traveling Salesman Problem, using some theoretical and mathematical background it is shown, why is it so hard to optimize this problem, and although it is so hard, and there is no best algorithm known for huge number of customers, why is it a worth to deal with it. Just think about a huge transportation company with ten thousands of trucks, millions of customers: how much money could be saved if we would know the optimal path for all our packages.Although there is no best algorithm is known for this kind of optimization problems, we are trying to give an acceptable solution for it in the second and third chapter, where two algorithms are described: the Genetic Algorithm and the Simulated Annealing. Both of them are based on obtaining the processes of nature and material science. These algorithms will hardly ever be able to find the best solution for the problem, but they are able to give a very good solution in special cases within acceptable calculation time.In these chapters (2nd and 3rd) the Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing is described in details, from their basis in the “real world” through their terminology and finally the basic implementation of them. The work will put a stress on the limits of these algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages, and also the comparison of them to each other.Finally, after all of these theories are shown, a simulation will be executed on an artificial environment of the VRP, with both Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithm. They will both solve the same problem in the same environment and are going to be compared to each other. The environment and the implementation are also described here, so as the test results obtained.Finally the possible improvements of these algorithms are discussed, and the work will try to answer the “big” question, “Which algorithm is better?”, if this question even exists.

A Genetic Algorithm for Solar Boat

Genetic algorithm has been widely used in different areas of optimization problems. Ithas been combined with renewable energy domain, photovoltaic system, in this thesis.To participate and win the solar boat race, a control program is needed and C++ hasbeen chosen for programming. To implement the program, the mathematic model hasbeen built. Besides, the approaches to calculate the boundaries related to conditionhave been explained. Afterward, the processing of the prediction and real time controlfunction are offered. The program has been simulated and the results proved thatgenetic algorithm is helpful to get the good results but it does not improve the resultstoo much since the particularity of the solar driven boat project such as the limitationof energy production