Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Assessing Organizational Cultural Fit prior to Integration in the M&A Process

Yritysostojen määrä on historiallisen suuri 2000-luvulla, vaikka melkein puolet niistä epäonnistuu. Aineettomilla tekijöillä, kuten organisaatiokulttuureilla, on keskeinen rooli yritysostojen onnistumisissa. Myös case yritys on aktiivinen yritysostoissa ja haluaa arvioida integraatioprosessinsa tehokkuutta. Siten diplomityön tarkoituksena on luoda työkalu organisaatiokulttuurien yhteensopivuuden arvioimiseksi, jotta ostopäätöksentekoa sekä integraation suunnittelua voitaisiin tukea paremmin yrityksessä. Diplomityö vastaakin kysymyksiin, kuten miten arvioida kulttuurista yhteensopivuutta ennen integraatiota integraatioprosessin parantamiseksi sekä mitkä ovat olleet kaikkein ongelmallisimmat ja toisaalta kaikkein menestyksekkäimmät kulttuuritekijät tutkitussa integraatiossa. Kulttuurisen yhteensopivuuden arviointi tulisi nähdä prosessina osana yrityskauppaa. Prosessin tulisi alkaa kulttuurisen integraation tavoitteiden määrittämisellä sekä organisaatiokulttuurin käsitteen ymmärtämisellä. Kulttuurianalyysi tulisi suorittaa työpajan avulla. Sen tulisi käsitellä ainakin yhdeksän kulttuurin osa-aluetta: innovatiivisuus, päätöksenteko, ihmissuuntautuneisuus, kommunikaatio, kontrolli, asiakassuuntautuneisuus, ajanhallinta, identifikaatio, sekä kollektivismi. Lisäksi kuhunkin dimensioon liittyvään kysymykseen tulisi vastata pisteillä yhdestä viiteen, jolloin voidaan piirtää kulttuurisen yhteensopivuuden kuvio. Tämän jälkeen johdon tulisi keskustella tuloksista vielä kerran tarkemmin ja lopulta koota tulokset kirjalliseksi raportiksi. Tutkitussa integraatiossa parhaiten integraatiota tukivat ihmissuuntautuneisuus sekä ajanhallinta (työn ja vapaa-ajan välinen tasapaino sekä tulevaisuus-suuntautuneisuus). Haasteellisimmat kulttuuritekijät koskivat päätöksentekoa, kommunikaatiota ja kontrollia, jotka vaikuttavat olevan tyypillisiä ongelmia ison yrityksen ostaessa pienemmän yrityksen.

Simulation of Solid Processes by Aspen Plus

Solid processes are used for obtaining the valuable minerals. Due to their worth, it is obligatory to perform different experiments to determine the different values of these minerals. With the passage of time, it is becoming more difficult to carry out these experiments for each mineral for different characteristics due to high labor costs and consumption of time. Therefore, scientists and engineers have tried to overcome this issue. They made different software to handle this problem. Aspen is one of those software for the calculation of different parameters. Therefore, the aim of this report was to do simulation for solid processes to observe different effect for minerals. Different solid processes like crushing, screening; filtration and crystallization were simulated by Aspen Plus. The simulation results are obtained by using this simulation software and they are described in this thesis. It was noticed that the results were acceptable for all solid processes. Therefore, this software can be used for the designing of crushers by calculating the power consumption of crushers, can design the filter and for the calculation of material balance for all processes.

Impact of irrigation on yield and energy balance of the production of oil and cake of two sunflower varieties

The energy balance for the production of sunflower oil and cake was carried out during the agricultural and industrial stage phase, where it was considered a cold extraction by hydraulic pressing, with the plant location in a rural area with a radius of 30km range. Data on productivity was used in two varieties of sunflower (Helio 358 and Aguará 04) grown in different seasons (2007/2008, 2008/2009), under different irrigation levels. Data showed that irrigation resulted in an increase in productivity of both varieties, and the best response was observed for Aguará 04 variety. Moreover, the increased intensity of irrigation negatively affected the energy balance, reducing the ratio between energy produced and energy used in the production chain. The most significant inputs in the energy intake were fertilizer followed by diesel oil, when irrigation was not used for. When the irrigation technique was used, the most significant inputs, in order of representativeness, were: energy, fertilizer and equipment.

Validation study of an overall radiation balance estimation method under Ponta Grossa (PR) Brazil weather conditions

Radiation balance is the fraction of incident solar radiation upon earth surface which is available to be used in several natural processes, such as biological metabolism, water loss by vegetated surfaces, variation of temperature in farming systems and organic decomposition. The present study aimed to assess and validate the performance of two estimation models for Rn in Ponta Grossa city, Paraná State, Brazil. To this end, during the period of 04/01/2008 to 04/30/2011, from radiometric data collected by an automatic weather station set at the Experimental Station, of the State University of Ponta Grossa. We performed a linear regression study by confrontation between measurements made through radiometric balance and Rn estimates obtained from Brunt classical method, and the proposed method. Both models showed excellent performance and were confirmed by the statistical parameters applied. However, the alternative method has the advantage of requiring only global solar radiation values, temperature, and relative humidity.

Weather variables, water balance, growth, and agro industrial yield of sugarcane

The objective of this study was to evaluate the meteorological variables, water deficiency, growth, and agro-industrial yield of sugarcane varieties: RB72454, RB863129, RB867515, RB92579, RB93509, RB931003, RB951541, and RB971755, in rainfed crop in two harvests in the Rio Largo-AL region. The meteorological variables were obtained in an automatic station and water balance was done by Thornthwaite & Mather method. During the study period, the air temperature ranged from 16.6 to 35.9 ºC. In the first production cycle rained 1,806 mm and the crop evapotranspiration was 1,775 mm. In the second cycle, the rainfall totaled 1,632 mm and the crop evapotranspiration was 1,290 mm. The average water excess of two production cycles was 689 mm and the water deficit totaled 665 mm. The average agricultural productivity in the plant was 86.8 t ha-1, in the first ratoon was 75.2 t ha-1 and the agro-industrial yield average was 12.9 and 10.9 tons of sugar per hectare in the plant and first ratoon, respectively. The air temperature was not limiting to the growth of sugarcane and the rainfall was higher than the crop evapotranspiration, but due to poor distribution of the rains there was water deficit. The most productive varieties were RB93509, RB92579, and RB863129.

Application of artificial neural networks as an alternative to volumetric water balance in drip irrigation management in watermelon crop

Precision irrigation seeks to establish strategies which achieve an efficient ratio between the volume of water used (reduction in input) and the productivity obtained (increase in production). There are several studies in the literature on strategies for achieving this efficiency, such as those dealing with the method of volumetric water balance (VWB). However, it is also of great practical and economic interest to set up versatile implementations of irrigation strategies that: (i) maintain the performance obtained with other implementations, (ii) rely on few computational resources, (iii) adapt well to field conditions, and (iv) allow easy modification of the irrigation strategy. In this study, such characteristics are achieved when using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to determine the period of irrigation for a watermelon crop in the Irrigation Perimeter of the Lower Acaraú, in the state of Ceará, Brazil. The Volumetric Water Balance was taken as the standard for comparing the management carried out with the proposed implementation of ANN. The statistical analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed management, which is able to replace VWB as a strategy in automation.

Energy balance in the poultry-shed system and its influence on broiler performance

ABSTRACTThe objective of this study was to determine the energy balance of the poultry-shed system and its effect on broiler performance during the production cycle. The experimental design was completely random with sub-divided blocks. The blocks were composed of five different types of sheds and the sub-blocks of the evaluation times (00:00 h to 23:00 h), allowing an analysis of variance and a comparison between means with the Tukey test. There were no significant differences between the mean values of the exchanges of sensible, latent and total heat between the poultry sheds but the differences for the evaluation times were significant (P<0.05). There was no significant difference between sheds 1 and 4 for broiler productive performance regarding weight gain, feed consumption and feed conversion. Bird performance was significant (P<0.05) for the remaining poultry sheds. The productive indexes remained below the ranges considered ideal for broilers and values in the final weeks were characterized by the poor installation efficiency in controlling temperature variations and, consequently, the energy balance in the system, which adversely affected bird productive performance.

Finnisch-ugrisches Substrat in der Toponymie des Russischen Nordens : eine neue Einstellung zum alten Problem

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options

En option är ett finansiellt kontrakt som ger dess innehavare en rättighet (men medför ingen skyldighet) att sälja eller köpa någonting (till exempel en aktie) till eller från säljaren av optionen till ett visst pris vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Den som säljer optionen binder sig till att gå med på denna framtida transaktion ifall optionsinnehavaren längre fram bestämmer sig för att inlösa optionen. Säljaren av optionen åtar sig alltså en risk av att den framtida transaktion som optionsinnehavaren kan tvinga honom att göra visar sig vara ofördelaktig för honom. Frågan om hur säljaren kan skydda sig mot denna risk leder till intressanta optimeringsproblem, där målet är att hitta en optimal skyddsstrategi under vissa givna villkor. Sådana optimeringsproblem har studerats mycket inom finansiell matematik. Avhandlingen "The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options" inför en ytterligare synpunkt till denna diskussion: I en relativt enkel (ändlig och komplett) marknadsmodell kan nämligen vissa partiella skyddsproblem beskrivas som så kallade kappsäcksproblem. De sistnämnda är välkända inom en gren av matematik som heter operationsanalys. I avhandlingen visas hur skyddsproblem som tidigare lösts på andra sätt kan alternativt lösas med hjälp av metoder som utvecklats för kappsäcksproblem. Förfarandet tillämpas även på helt nya skyddsproblem i samband med så kallade amerikanska optioner.

Chelyabinsk CHP-3 “locked power” problem solving

All over the world power systems become bigger and bigger every day. New equipment is installed, new feeders are constructed, new power units are installed. Some old elements of the network, however, are not changed in time. As a result, “bottlenecks” for capacity transmission can occur. By locked power problem the situation when a power plant has installed capacity exceeding the power it can actually deliver is usually meant. Regime, scheme or even technical restrictions-related issues usually cause this kind of problem. It is really important, since from the regime point of view it is typical decision to have a mobile capacity reserve, in case of malfunctions. And, what can be even more significant, power plant owner (JSC Fortum in our case) losses his money because of selling less electrical energy. The goal of master`s thesis is to analyze the current state of Chelyabinsk power system and the CHP-3 (Combined Heat and Power plant) in particular in relation with it`s ability to deliver the whole capacity of the CHP in it`s existing state and also taking into consideration the prospect of power unit 3 installation by the fourth quarter of 2010. The thesis contains some general information about the UPS of Russia, CPS of Ural, power system of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region itself. Then the CHP-3 is described from technical point of view with it`s equipment observation. Regimes for the nowadays power system and for the system after the power unit 3 installation are reviewed. The problems occurring are described and, finally, a solution is offered.

Closure of large wounds using rubber bands in rabbits

OBJECTIVE: to verify the effectiveness of the rubber elastic band in the treatment of large wounds of the body wall of rabbits by means of traction of its edges. METHODS: we studied 30 New Zealand rabbits, divided into three groups (n=10): Group 1- healing by secondary intention; Group 2- removal and eutopic repositioning of skin as full thickness skin graft; Group 3- Approximation of wound edges with elastic rubber band. In all animals, we removed a segment of the back skin and subcutaneous tissue down to the fascia, in accordance with an acrylic mold of 8cm long by 12cm wide. All animals were observed for 21 days. RESULTS: two animals of groups 1 and 2 had wound abscess. In Group 2, there was partial or total graft loss in 90% of animals. The complete closure of the wounds was observed in four animals of Group 1, six of Group 2 and eight of Group 3. There was no difference between the scar resistance values of groups 2 and 3, which were higher than those in Group 1. The scars of the three groups were characterized by the presence of mature connective tissue mixed with blood vessels and inflammatory infiltration, predominantly polymorphonuclear. CONCLUSION: the tensile strength of the wound edges with rubber elastic band is as efficient as the skin graft to treat rabbits' large body wounds.