The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Photoelastic Stress Analysis of Different Designs of Cement-Retained Fixed Partial Dentures on Morse Taper Oral Implants

There is no consensus in literature regarding the best plan for prosthetic rehabilitation with partial multiple adjacent implants to minimize stress generated in the bone-implant interface. The aim of this study was to evaluate the biomechanical behavior of cemented fixed partial dentures, splinted and nonsplinted, on Morse taper implants and with different types of coating material (ceramic and resin), using photoelastic stress analysis. A photoelastic model of an interposed edentulous space, missing a second premolar and a first molar, and rehabilitated with 4 different types of cemented crowns and supported by 2 adjacent implants was used. Groups were as follows: UC, splinted ceramic crowns; IC, nonsplinted ceramic crowns; UR, splinted resin crowns; and IR, nonsplinted resin crowns. Different vertical static loading conditions were performed: balanced occlusal load, 10 kgf; simultaneous punctiform load on the implanted premolar and molar, 10 kgf; and alternate punctiform load on the implanted premolar and molar, 5 kgf. Changes in stress distribution were analyzed in a polariscope, and digital photographs were taken of each condition to allow comparison of stress pattern distribution around the implants. Cementation of the fixed partial dentures generated stresses between implants. Splinted restorations distributed the stresses more evenly between the implants than nonsplinted when force was applied. Ceramic restorations presented better distribution of stresses than resin restorations. Based on the results obtained, it was concluded that splinted ceramic restorations promote better stress distribution around osseointegrated implants when compared with nonsplinted crowns; metal-ceramic restorations present less stress concentration and magnitude than metal-plastic restorations.

Diversity and commonality in national identities: an exploratory analysis of cross-national patterns

Issues of boundary maintenance are implicit in all studies of national identity. By definition, national communities consist of those who are included but surrounded (literally or metaphorically) by those who are excluded. Most extant research on national identity explores criteria for national membership largely in terms of official or public definitions described, for example, in citizenship and immigration laws or in texts of popular culture. We know much less about how ordinary people in various nations reason about these issues. An analysis of cross-national (N = 23) survey data from the 1995 International Social Science Program reveals a core pattern in most of the countries studied. Respondents were asked how important various criteria were in being 'truly' a member of a particular nation. Exploratory factor analysis shows that these items cluster in terms of two underlying dimensions. Ascriptive/objectivist criteria relating to birth, religion and residence can be distinguished from civic/voluntarist criteria relating to subjective feelings of membership and belief in core institutions. In most nations the ascriptive/objectivist dimension of national identity was more prominent than the subjective civic/voluntarist dimension. Taken overall, these findings suggest an unanticipated homogeneity in the ways that citizens around the world think about national identity. To the extent that these dimensions also mirror the well-known distinction between ethnic and civic national identification, they suggest that the former remains robust despite globalization, mass migration and cultural pluralism. Throughout the world official definitions of national identification have tended to shift towards a civic model. Yet citizens remain remarkably traditional in outlook. A task for future research is to investigate the macrosociological forces that produce both commonality and difference in the core patterns we have identified.

Assessing alternative models of individualism and collectivism: A confirmatory factor analysis

Six alternative structural models of individualism-collectivism are reviewed and empirically compared in a confirmatory factor analysis of questionnaire data from an Australian student sample (N=340). Central to the debate about the structure of this broad social attitude are the issues of (I) polarity (are individualism and collectivism bipolar opposites, or orthogonal factors?) and (2) dimensionality (are individualism and collectivism themselves higher-order constructs subsuming several more specific factors and, if so, what are they?). The data from this Australian sample support a model that represents individualism and collectivism as a higher-order bipolar factor hierarchically subsuming several bipolar reference-group-specific individualisms and collectivisms. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The expression of plasminogen activator system in a rat model of periodontal wound healing

Background: The plasminogen activator system has been proposed to play a role in proteolytic degradation of extracellular matrices in tissue remodeling, including wound healing. The aim of this study was to elucidate the presence of components of the plasminogen activator system during different stages of periodontal wound healing. Methods: Periodontal wounds were created around the molars of adult rats and healing was followed for 28 days. Immunohistochemical analyses of the healing tissues and an analysis of the periodontal wound healing fluid by ELISA were carried out for the detection of tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA), urokinase-type plasminogen activator (u-PA), and 2 plasminogen activator inhibitors (PAI-1 and PAI-2). Results: During the early stages (days 1 to 3) of periodontal wound healing, PAI-1 and PAI-2 were found to be closely associated with the deposition of a fibrin clot in the gingival sulcus. These components were strongly associated with the infiltrating inflammatory cells around the fibrin clot. During days 3 to 7, u-PA, PAI-1, and PAI-2 were associated with cells (particularly monocytes/macrophages, fibroblasts, and endothelial cells) in the newly formed granulation tissue. During days 7 to 14, a new attachment apparatus was formed during which PAI-1, PAI-2, and u-PA were localized in both periodontal ligament fibroblasts (PDL) and epithelial cells at sites where these cells were attaching to the root surface. In the periodontal wound healing fluid, the concentration for t-PA increased and peaked during the first week. PAI-2 had a similar expression to t-PA, but at a lower level over the entire wound-healing period. Conclusions: These findings indicate that the plasminogen activator system is involved in the entire process of periodontal wound healing, in particular with the formation of fibrin matrix on the root surface and its replacement by granulation tissue, as well as the subsequent formation of the attachment of soft tissue to the root surface during the later stages of wound repair.

Analysis of thermodynamic non-ideality in terms of protein solvation

The effects of thermodynamic non-ideality on the forms of sedimentation equilibrium distributions for several isoelectric proteins have been analysed on the statistical-mechanical basis of excluded volume to obtain an estimate of the extent of protein solvation. Values of the effective solvation. parameter delta are reported for ellipsoidal as well as spherical models of the proteins, taken to be rigid, impenetrable macromolecular structures. The dependence of the effective solvated radius upon protein molecular mass exhibits reasonable agreement with the relationship calculated for a model in which the unsolvated protein molecule is surrounded by a 0.52-nm solvation shell. Although the observation that this shell thickness corresponds to a double layer of water molecules may be of questionable relevance to mechanistic interpretation of protein hydration, it augurs well for the assignment of magnitudes to the second virial coefficients of putative complexes in the quantitative characterization of protein-protein interactions under conditions where effects of thermodynamic non-ideality cannot justifiably be neglected. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

MapScript: A map algebra programming language incorporating neighborhood analysis

Map algebra is a data model and simple functional notation to study the distribution and patterns of spatial phenomena. It uses a uniform representation of space as discrete grids, which are organized into layers. This paper discusses extensions to map algebra to handle neighborhood operations with a new data type called a template. Templates provide general windowing operations on grids to enable spatial models for cellular automata, mathematical morphology, and local spatial statistics. A programming language for map algebra that incorporates templates and special processing constructs is described. The programming language is called MapScript. Example program scripts are presented to perform diverse and interesting neighborhood analysis for descriptive, model-based and processed-based analysis.

Analysis of Piezoelectric sensor to detect flexural waves

The electromechanical transfer characteristics of adhesively bonded piezoelectric sensors are investigated. By the use of dynamic piezoelectricity theory, Mindlin plate theory for flexural wave propagation, and a multiple integral transform method, the frequency-response functions of piezoelectric sensors with and without backing materials are developed and the pressure-voltage transduction functions of the sensors calculated. The corresponding simulation results show that the sensitivity of the sensors is not only dependent on the sensors' inherent features, such as piezoelectric properties and geometry, but also on local characteristics of the tested structures and the admittance and impedance of the attached electrical circuit. It is also demonstrated that the simplified rigid mass sensor model can be used to analyze successfully the sensitivity of the sensor at low frequencies, but that the dynamic piezoelectric continuum model has to be used for higher frequencies, especially around the resonance frequency of the coupled sensor-structure vibration system.

Ligand-field analysis of an Er(III) complex with a heptadentate tripodal N4O3 ligand

Polarized absorption and emission spectra of trigonal single crystals of an Er(III) complex coordinated to a heptadentate tripodal ligand are reported at temperatures between 8 and 298 K. The assigned energy levels below the onset of ligand absorption (< 25 000 cm(-1)) are fitted to a parametrized electronic Hamiltonian. The C-3 site symmetry of the Er(HI) ion requires eight parameters for a full description of the ligand field within a one-electron operator description. This compound shows unusually large splittings of the multiplets, and the fitted parameters imply that this heptadentate ligand imparts the largest ligand field reported for an Er(III) complex. The ligand field was also interpreted within the angular overlap model (AOM). We derive the AOM matrix to include both sigma and anisotropic pi bonding and show that a useful description of the C-3 ligand field can be made using only five parameters. The success of the AOM description is encouraging for applications on isomorphous complexes within the lanthanide series and in describing the ligand field of low-symmetry complexes with less parameters than in the usual spherical harmonic expansion.

Three-dimensional orthotropic viscoelastic finite element model of a human ligament

Ligaments undergo finite strain displaying hyperelastic behaviour as the initially tangled fibrils present straighten out, combined with viscoelastic behaviour (strain rate sensitivity). In the present study the anterior cruciate ligament of the human knee joint is modelled in three dimensions to gain an understanding of the stress distribution over the ligament due to motion imposed on the ends, determined from experimental studies. A three dimensional, finite strain material model of ligaments has recently been proposed by Pioletti in Ref. [2]. It is attractive as it separates out elastic stress from that due to the present strain rate and that due to the past history of deformation. However, it treats the ligament as isotropic and incompressible. While the second assumption is reasonable, the first is clearly untrue. In the present study an alternative model of the elastic behaviour due to Bonet and Burton (Ref. [4]) is generalized. Bonet and Burton consider finite strain with constant modulii for the fibres and for the matrix of a transversely isotropic composite. In the present work, the fibre modulus is first made to increase exponentially from zero with an invariant that provides a measure of the stretch in the fibre direction. At 12% strain in the fibre direction, a new reference state is then adopted, after which the material modulus is made constant, as in Bonet and Burton's model. The strain rate dependence can be added, either using Pioletti's isotropic approximation, or by making the effect depend on the strain rate in the fibre direction only. A solid model of a ligament is constructed, based on experimentally measured sections, and the deformation predicted using explicit integration in time. This approach simplifies the coding of the material model, but has a limitation due to the detrimental effect on stability of integration of the substantial damping implied by the nonlinear dependence of stress on strain rate. At present, an artificially high density is being used to provide stability, while the dynamics are being removed from the solution using artificial viscosity. The result is a quasi-static solution incorporating the effect of strain rate. Alternate approaches to material modelling and integration are discussed, that may result in a better model.

Assessment of body composition by bioelectrical impedance analysis without the need for measurement of height

Conventional whole-body single frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) of body composition typically uses height as a surrogate measure of conductor length. A new method of BIA analysis for the prediction of body cell mass (BCM) and extracellular water (ECW, as % body weight) not using height has been introduced-the Soft Tissue Analyser (STA(TM), Akern Sri, Florence, Italy)-making it ideal for use in subjects where measurement of height is difficult or impossible. The performance of the new analytical method in predicting BCM and ECW in 139 normal control subjects was assessed by comparison with reference data obtained from a four-component (4-C) model of body composition and with predictions obtained from conventional BIA analysis. Both predicted BCM and ECW were strongly (r = 0.82, SEE = 6.3 kg and 0.89, SEE = 1.3 kg respectively) correlated with the corresponding 4-C model measurements although differing significantly from the lines of identity (P < 0.0001). Fat-free mass, calculated from STA estimates of BCM and ECW, was better predicted (r = 0.91, SEE = 5.6 kg). The significant differences in STA-group mean values for BCM and ECW and wide limits of agreement compared with the reference data indicate that the method cannot be used with confidence for prediction of these body compartments despite the obvious advantage of not requiring an accurate measurement of height. (C) 2001 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - I. Analysis across districts

Historically, few articles have addressed the use of district level mill production data for analysing the effect of varietal change on sugarcane productivity trends. This appears to be due to lack of compiled district data sets and appropriate methods by which to analyse these data. Recently, varietal data on tonnes of sugarcane per hectare (TCH), sugar content (CCS), and their product, tonnes of sugar content per hectare (TSH) on a district basis, have been compiled. This study was conducted to develop a methodology for regular analysis of such data from mill districts to assess productivity trends over time, accounting for variety and variety x environment interaction effects for 3 mill districts (Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully) from 1958 to 1995. Restricted maximum likelihood methodology was used to analyse the district level data and best linear unbiased predictors for random effects, and best linear unbiased estimates for fixed effects were computed in a mixed model analysis. In the combined analysis over districts, Q124 was the top ranking variety for TCH, and Q120 was top ranking for both CCS and TSH. Overall production for TCH increased over the 38-year period investigated. Some of this increase can be attributed to varietal improvement, although the predictors for TCH have shown little progress since the introduction of Q99 in 1976. Although smaller gains have been made in varietal improvement for CCS, overall production for CCS decreased over the 38 years due to non-varietal factors. Varietal improvement in TSH appears to have peaked in the mid-1980s. Overall production for TSH remained stable over time due to the varietal increase in TCH and the non-varietal decrease in CCS.

A generalised dynamic model for char particle gasification with structure evolution and peripheral fragmentation

A generalised model for the prediction of single char particle gasification dynamics, accounting for multi-component mass transfer with chemical reaction, heat transfer, as well as structure evolution and peripheral fragmentation is developed in this paper. Maxwell-Stefan analysis is uniquely applied to both micro and macropores within the framework of the dusty-gas model to account for the bidisperse nature of the char, which differs significantly from the conventional models that are based on a single pore type. The peripheral fragmentation and random-pore correlation incorporated into the model enable prediction of structure/reactivity relationships. The occurrence of chemical reaction within the boundary layer reported by Biggs and Agarwal (Chem. Eng. Sci. 52 (1997) 941) has been confirmed through an analysis of CO/CO2 product ratio obtained from model simulations. However, it is also quantitatively observed that the significance of boundary layer reaction reduces notably with the reduction of oxygen concentration in the flue gas, operational pressure and film thickness. Computations have also shown that in the presence of diffusional gradients peripheral fragmentation occurs in the early stages on the surface, after which conversion quickens significantly due to small particle size. Results of the early commencement of peripheral fragmentation at relatively low overall conversion obtained from a large number of simulations agree well with experimental observations reported by Feng and Bhatia (Energy & Fuels 14 (2000) 297). Comprehensive analysis of simulation results is carried out based on well accepted physical principles to rationalise model prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. AH rights reserved.

A simulation model for analysing patient activity in dermatology

We developed a general model to assess patient activity within the primary and secondary health-care sectors following a dermatology outpatient consultation. Based on observed variables from the UK teledermatology trial, the model showed that up to 11 doctor-patient interactions occurred before a patient was ultimately discharged from care. In a cohort of 1000 patients, the average number of health-care visits was 2.4 (range 1-11). Simulation analysis suggested that the most important parameter affecting the total number of doctor-patient Interactions is patient discharge from care following the initial consultation. This implies that resources should be concentrated in this area. The introduction of teledermatology (either realtime or store and forward) changes the values of the model parameters. The model provides a quantitative tool for planning the future provision of dermatology health-care.