894 resultados para Acquisition prices


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EPICS (Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System) lies in a set of software tools and applications which provide a software infrastructure for building distributed data acquisition and control systems. Currently there is an increase in use of such systems in large Physics experiments like ITER, ESS, and FREIA. In these experiments, advanced data acquisition systems using FPGA-based technology like FlexRIO are more frequently been used. The particular case of ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), the instrumentation and control system is supported by CCS (CODAC Core System), based on RHEL (Red Hat Enterprise Linux) operating system, and by the plant design specifications in which every CCS element is defined either hardware, firmware or software. In this degree final project the methodology proposed in Implementation of Intelligent Data Acquisition Systems for Fusion Experiments using EPICS and FlexRIO Technology Sanz et al. [1] is used. The final objective is to provide a document describing the fulfilled process and the source code of the data acquisition system accomplished. The use of the proposed methodology leads to have two diferent stages. The first one consists of the hardware modelling with graphic design tools like LabVIEWFPGA which later will be implemented in the FlexRIO device. In the next stage the design cycle is completed creating an EPICS controller that manages the device using a generic device support layer named NDS (Nominal Device Support). This layer integrates the data acquisition system developed into CCS (Control, data access and communication Core System) as an EPICS interface to the system. The use of FlexRIO technology drives the use of LabVIEW and LabVIEW FPGA respectively. RESUMEN. EPICS (Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System) es un conjunto de herramientas software utilizadas para el desarrollo e implementación de sistemas de adquisición de datos y control distribuidos. Cada vez es más utilizado para entornos de experimentación física a gran escala como ITER, ESS y FREIA entre otros. En estos experimentos se están empezando a utilizar sistemas de adquisición de datos avanzados que usan tecnología basada en FPGA como FlexRIO. En el caso particular de ITER, el sistema de instrumentación y control adoptado se basa en el uso de la herramienta CCS (CODAC Core System) basado en el sistema operativo RHEL (Red Hat) y en las especificaciones del diseño del sistema de planta, en la cual define todos los elementos integrantes del CCS, tanto software como firmware y hardware. En este proyecto utiliza la metodología propuesta para la implementación de sistemas de adquisición de datos inteligente basada en EPICS y FlexRIO. Se desea generar una serie de ejemplos que cubran dicho ciclo de diseño completo y que serían propuestos como casos de uso de dichas tecnologías. Se proporcionará un documento en el que se describa el trabajo realizado así como el código fuente del sistema de adquisición. La metodología adoptada consta de dos etapas diferenciadas. En la primera de ellas se modela el hardware y se sintetiza en el dispositivo FlexRIO utilizando LabVIEW FPGA. Posteriormente se completa el ciclo de diseño creando un controlador EPICS que maneja cada dispositivo creado utilizando una capa software genérica de manejo de dispositivos que se denomina NDS (Nominal Device Support). Esta capa integra la solución en CCS realizando la interfaz con la capa EPICS del sistema. El uso de la tecnología FlexRIO conlleva el uso del lenguaje de programación y descripción hardware LabVIEW y LabVIEW FPGA respectivamente.

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In this paper we want to point out, by means of a case study, the importance of incorporating some knowledge engineering techniques to the processes of software engineering. Precisely, we are referring to the knowledge eduction techniques. We know the difficulty of requirements acquisition and its importance to minimise the risks of a software project, both in the development phase and in the maintenance phase. To capture the functional requirements use cases are generally used. However, as we will show in this paper, this technique is insufficient when the problem domain knowledge is only in the "experts? mind". In this situation, the combination of the use case with eduction techniques, in every development phase, will let us to discover the correct requirements.

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In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

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`Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus´ is the most prevalent Liberibacter sp. associated with huanglongbing (HLB) in Brazil. Within São Paulo state (SP), HLB has spread more rapidly to and reached higher incidence in regions with relatively mild (cooler) summer temperatures. This suggests that climate can influence disease spread and severity. ?Ca. L. asiaticus? titers on soft, immature leaves from infected ?Valencia? sweet orange plants exposed to different temperature regimes and adult Diaphorina citri fed for 48 h on these plants for ?Ca. L. asiaticus? acquisition were determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction in two experiments. The first experiment included plants with three levels of infection, three incubation periods (IPs), and air temperatures favorable (14.6 to 28°C) and unfavorable (24 to 38°C) to ?Ca. L. asiaticus?. The second included plants with severe late-stage infections, 10 IPs (based on 3-day intervals over 27 days), and three air temperature regimes (12 to 24, 18 to 30, and 24 to 38°C). Overall, ?Ca. L. asiaticus? titers and the percentages of ?Ca. L. asiaticus?-positive psyllids were lower in plants maintained at the warmer temperature regime (24 to 38°C) than in plants maintained in the cooler regimes. The results suggest that the lower incidence and slower spread of ?Ca. L. asiaticus? to warmer regions of SP are related to the influence of ambient temperatures on titers of ?Ca. L. asiaticus? in leaves.

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This article explores one aspect of the processing perspective in L2 learning in an EST context: the processing of new content words, in English, of the type ‘cognates’ and ‘false friends’, by Spanish speaking engineering students. The paper does not try to offer a comprehensive overview of language acquisition mechanisms, but rather it is intended to review more narrowly how our conceptual systems, governed by intricately linked networks of neural connections in the brain, make language development possible, creating, at the same time, some L2 processing problems. The case of ‘cognates and false friends’ in specialised contexts is brought here to illustrate some of the processing problems that the L2 learner has to confront, and how mappings in the visual, phonological and semantic (conceptual) brain structures function in second language processing of new vocabulary. Resumen Este artículo pretende reflexionar sobre un aspecto de la perspectiva del procesamiento de segundas lenguas (L2) en el contexto del ICT: el procesamiento de palabras nuevas, en inglés, conocidas como “cognados” y “falsos amigos”, por parte de estudiantes de ingeniería españoles. No se pretende ofrecer una visión completa de los mecanismos de adquisición del lenguaje, más bien se intenta mostrar cómo nuestro sistema conceptual, gobernado por una complicada red de conexiones neuronales en el cerebro, hace posible el desarrollo del lenguaje, aunque ello conlleve ciertas dificultades en el procesamiento de segundas lenguas. El caso de los “cognados” y los “falsos amigos”, en los lenguajes de especialidad, se trae para ilustrar algunos de los problemas de procesamiento que el estudiante de una lengua extranjera tiene que afrontar y el funcionamiento de las correspondencias entre las estructuras visuales, fonológicas y semánticas (conceptuales) del cerebro en el procesamiento de nuevo vocabulario.

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In the framework of the ITER Control Breakdown Structure (CBS), Plant System Instrumentation & Control (I&C) defines the hardware and software required to control one or more plant systems [1]. For diagnostics, most of the complex Plant System I&C are to be delivered by ITER Domestic Agencies (DAs). As an example for the DAs, ITER Organization (IO) has developed several use cases for diagnostics Plant System I&C that fully comply with guidelines presented in the Plant Control Design Handbook (PCDH) [2]. One such use case is for neutron diagnostics, specifically the Fission Chamber (FC), which is responsible for delivering time-resolved measurements of neutron source strength and fusion power to aid in assessing the functional performance of ITER [3]. ITER will deploy four Fission Chamber units, each consisting of three individual FC detectors. Two of these detectors contain Uranium 235 for Neutron detection, while a third "dummy" detector will provide gamma and noise detection. The neutron flux from each MFC is measured by the three methods: . Counting Mode: measures the number of individual pulses and their location in the record. Pulse parameters (threshold and width) are user configurable. . Campbelling Mode (Mean Square Voltage): measures the RMS deviation in signal amplitude from its average value. .Current Mode: integrates the signal amplitude over the measurement period

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An important part of human intelligence, both historically and operationally, is our ability to communicate. We learn how to communicate, and maintain our communicative skills, in a society of communicators – a highly effective way to reach and maintain proficiency in this complex skill. Principles that might allow artificial agents to learn language this way are in completely known at present – the multi-dimensional nature of socio-communicative skills are beyond every machine learning framework so far proposed. Our work begins to address the challenge of proposing a way for observation-based machine learning of natural language and communication. Our framework can learn complex communicative skills with minimal up-front knowledge. The system learns by incrementally producing predictive models of causal relationships in observed data, guided by goal-inference and reasoning using forward-inverse models. We present results from two experiments where our S1 agent learns human communication by observing two humans interacting in a realtime TV-style interview, using multimodal communicative gesture and situated language to talk about recycling of various materials and objects. S1 can learn multimodal complex language and multimodal communicative acts, a vocabulary of 100 words forming natural sentences with relatively complex sentence structure, including manual deictic reference and anaphora. S1 is seeded only with high-level information about goals of the interviewer and interviewee, and a small ontology; no grammar or other information is provided to S1 a priori. The agent learns the pragmatics, semantics, and syntax of complex utterances spoken and gestures from scratch, by observing the humans compare and contrast the cost and pollution related to recycling aluminum cans, glass bottles, newspaper, plastic, and wood. After 20 hours of observation S1 can perform an unscripted TV interview with a human, in the same style, without making mistakes.

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Current fusion devices consist of multiple diagnostics and hundreds or even thousands of signals. This situation forces on multiple occasions to use distributed data acquisition systems as the best approach. In this type of distributed systems, one of the most important issues is the synchronization between signals, so that it is possible to have a temporal correlation as accurate as possible between the acquired samples of all channels. In last decades, many fusion devices use different types of video cameras to provide inside views of the vessel during operations and to monitor plasma behavior. The synchronization between each video frame and the rest of the different signals acquired from any other diagnostics is essential in order to know correctly the plasma evolution, since it is possible to analyze jointly all the information having accurate knowledge of their temporal correlation. The developed system described in this paper allows timestamping image frames in a real-time acquisition and processing system using 1588 clock distribution. The system has been implemented using FPGA based devices together with a 1588 synchronized timing card (see Fig.1). The solution is based on a previous system [1] that allows image acquisition and real-time image processing based on PXIe technology. This architecture is fully compatible with the ITER Fast Controllers [2] and offers integration with EPICS to control and monitor the entire system. However, this set-up is not able to timestamp the frames acquired since the frame grabber module does not present any type of timing input (IRIG-B, GPS, PTP). To solve this lack, an IEEE1588 PXI timing device its used to provide an accurate way to synchronize distributed data acquisition systems using the Precision Time Protocol (PTP) IEEE 1588 2008 standard. This local timing device can be connected to a master clock device for global synchronization. The timing device has a buffer timestamp for each PXI trigger line and requires tha- a software application assigns each frame the corresponding timestamp. The previous action is critical and cannot be achieved if the frame rate is high. To solve this problem, it has been designed a solution that distributes the clock from the IEEE 1588 timing card to all FlexRIO devices [3]. This solution uses two PXI trigger lines that provide the capacity to assign timestamps to every frame acquired and register events by hardware in a deterministic way. The system provides a solution for timestamping frames to synchronize them with the rest of the different signals.

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An important part of human intelligence is the ability to use language. Humans learn how to use language in a society of language users, which is probably the most effective way to learn a language from the ground up. Principles that might allow an artificial agents to learn language this way are not known at present. Here we present a framework which begins to address this challenge. Our auto-catalytic, endogenous, reflective architecture (AERA) supports the creation of agents that can learn natural language by observation. We present results from two experiments where our S1 agent learns human communication by observing two humans interacting in a realtime mock television interview, using gesture and situated language. Results show that S1 can learn multimodal complex language and multimodal communicative acts, using a vocabulary of 100 words with numerous sentence formats, by observing unscripted interaction between the humans, with no grammar being provided to it a priori, and only high-level information about the format of the human interaction in the form of high-level goals of the interviewer and interviewee and a small ontology. The agent learns both the pragmatics, semantics, and syntax of complex sentences spoken by the human subjects on the topic of recycling of objects such as aluminum cans, glass bottles, plastic, and wood, as well as use of manual deictic reference and anaphora.

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Mosaics are high-resolution images obtained aerially and employed in several scientific research areas, such for example, in the field of environmental monitoring and precision agriculture. Although many high resolution maps are obtained by commercial demand, they can also be acquired with commercial aerial vehicles which provide more experimental autonomy and availability. For what regard to mosaicing-based aerial mission planners, there are not so many - if any - free of charge software. Therefore, in this paper is presented a framework designed with open source tools and libraries as an alternative to commercial tools to carry out mosaicing tasks.

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Las herramientas de configuración basadas en lenguajes de alto nivel como LabVIEW permiten el desarrollo de sistemas de adquisición de datos basados en hardware reconfigurable FPGA muy complejos en un breve periodo de tiempo. La estandarización del ciclo de diseño hardware/software y la utilización de herramientas como EPICS facilita su integración con la plataforma de adquisición y control ITER CODAC CORE SYSTEM (CCS) basada en Linux. En este proyecto se propondrá una metodología que simplificará el ciclo completo de integración de plataformas novedosas, como cRIO, en las que el funcionamiento del hardware de adquisición puede ser modificado por el usuario para que éste se amolde a sus requisitos específicos. El objetivo principal de este proyecto fin de master es realizar la integración de un sistema cRIO NI9159 y diferentes módulos de E/S analógica y digital en EPICS y en CODAC CORE SYSTEM (CCS). Este último consiste en un conjunto de herramientas software que simplifican la integración de los sistemas de instrumentación y control del experimento ITER. Para cumplir el objetivo se realizarán las siguientes tareas: • Desarrollo de un sistema de adquisición de datos basado en FPGA con la plataforma hardware CompactRIO. En esta tarea se realizará la configuración del sistema y la implementación en LabVIEW para FPGA del hardware necesario para comunicarse con los módulos: NI9205, NI9264, NI9401.NI9477, NI9426, NI9425 y NI9476 • Implementación de un driver software utilizando la metodología de AsynDriver para integración del cRIO con EPICS. Esta tarea requiere definir todos los records necesarios que exige EPICS y crear las interfaces adecuadas que permitirán comunicarse con el hardware. • Implementar la descripción del sistema cRIO y del driver EPICS en el sistema de descripción de plantas de ITER llamado SDD. Esto automatiza la creación de las aplicaciones de EPICS que se denominan IOCs. SUMMARY The configuration tools based in high-level programing languages like LabVIEW allows the development of high complex data acquisition systems based on reconfigurable hardware FPGA in a short time period. The standardization of the hardware/software design cycle and the use of tools like EPICS ease the integration with the data acquisition and control platform of ITER, the CODAC Core System based on Linux. In this project a methodology is proposed in order to simplify the full integration cycle of new platforms like CompactRIO (cRIO), in which the data acquisition functionality can be reconfigured by the user to fits its concrete requirements. The main objective of this MSc final project is to develop the integration of a cRIO NI-9159 and its different analog and digital Input/Output modules with EPICS in a CCS. The CCS consists of a set of software tools that simplifies the integration of instrumentation and control systems in the International Thermonuclear Reactor (ITER) experiment. To achieve such goal the following tasks are carried out: • Development of a DAQ system based on FPGA using the cRIO hardware platform. This task comprehends the configuration of the system and the implementation of the mandatory hardware to communicate to the I/O adapter modules NI9205, NI9264, NI9401, NI9477, NI9426, NI9425 y NI9476 using LabVIEW for FPGA. • Implementation of a software driver using the asynDriver methodology to integrate such cRIO system with EPICS. This task requires the definition of the necessary EPICS records and the creation of the appropriate interfaces that allow the communication with the hardware. • Develop the cRIO system’s description and the EPICS driver in the ITER plant description tool named SDD. This development will automate the creation of EPICS applications, called IOCs.

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In this paper we present a solution for building a better strategy to take part in external electricity markets. For an optimal strategy development, both the internal system costs as well as the future values of the series of electricity prices in external markets need to be known. But in practice, the real problems that must be faced are that both future electricity prices and costs are unknown. Thus, the first ones must be modeled and forecasted and the costs must be calculated. Our methodology for building an optimal strategy consists of three steps: The first step is modeling and forecasting market prices in external systems. The second step is the cost calculation on internal system taking into account the expected prices in the first step. The third step is based on the results of the previous steps, and consists of preparing the bids for external markets. The main goal is to reduce consumers' costs unlike many others that are oriented to increase GenCo's profits.

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Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

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Dissertação de mestrado na área de Educação Social e Intervenção Comunitária

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Os consumidores de baixa renda pertencentes às classes C, D e E, representam 77% da população brasileira, uma fatia de mercado até então desvalorizadas pelas empresas. Após o Plano Real estes consumidores aumentaram sua participação na aquisição de produtos e serviços, e hoje correspondem a aproximadamente 45% do consumo brasileiro. Visando atender essa grande parcela da população muitas empresas passaram a desenvolver produtos com preços inferiores, mas com qualidade confiável. O estudo investigará o potencial mercadológico destes consumidores e terá como foco principal apresentar as estratégias de comunicação desenvolvidas pelas empresas de higiene pessoal, perfumaria e cosméticos, cujos produtos são destinados aos consumidores de baixa renda.