Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Modeling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments

[1] We present a new, process-based model of soil and stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC): the Integrated Catchments Model for Carbon (INCA-C). INCA-C is the first model of DOC cycling to explicitly include effects of different land cover types, hydrological flow paths, in-soil carbon biogeochemistry, and surface water processes on in-stream DOC concentrations. It can be calibrated using only routinely available monitoring data. INCA-C simulates daily DOC concentrations over a period of years to decades. Sources, sinks, and transformation of solid and dissolved organic carbon in peat and forest soils, wetlands, and streams as well as organic carbon mineralization in stream waters are modeled. INCA-C is designed to be applied to natural and seminatural forested and peat-dominated catchments in boreal and temperate regions. Simulations at two forested catchments showed that seasonal and interannual patterns of DOC concentration could be modeled using climate-related parameters alone. A sensitivity analysis showed that model predictions were dependent on the mass of organic carbon in the soil and that in-soil process rates were dependent on soil moisture status. Sensitive rate coefficients in the model included those for organic carbon sorption and desorption and DOC mineralization in the soil. The model was also sensitive to the amount of litter fall. Our results show the importance of climate variability in controlling surface water DOC concentrations and suggest the need for further research on the mechanisms controlling production and consumption of DOC in soils.

The acoustic signature of fluid flow in complex porous media

Effective medium approximations for the frequency-dependent and complex-valued effective stiffness tensors of cracked/ porous rocks with multiple solid constituents are developed on the basis of the T-matrix approach (based on integral equation methods for quasi-static composites), the elastic - viscoelastic correspondence principle, and a unified treatment of the local and global flow mechanisms, which is consistent with the principle of fluid mass conservation. The main advantage of using the T-matrix approach, rather than the first-order approach of Eshelby or the second-order approach of Hudson, is that it produces physically plausible results even when the volume concentrations of inclusions or cavities are no longer small. The new formulae, which operates with an arbitrary homogeneous (anisotropic) reference medium and contains terms of all order in the volume concentrations of solid particles and communicating cavities, take explicitly account of inclusion shape and spatial distribution independently. We show analytically that an expansion of the T-matrix formulae to first order in the volume concentration of cavities (in agreement with the dilute estimate of Eshelby) has the correct dependence on the properties of the saturating fluid, in the sense that it is consistent with the Brown-Korringa relation, when the frequency is sufficiently low. We present numerical results for the (anisotropic) effective viscoelastic properties of a cracked permeable medium with finite storage porosity, indicating that the complete T-matrix formulae (including the higher-order terms) are generally consistent with the Brown-Korringa relation, at least if we assume the spatial distribution of cavities to be the same for all cavity pairs. We have found an efficient way to treat statistical correlations in the shapes and orientations of the communicating cavities, and also obtained a reasonable match between theoretical predictions (based on a dual porosity model for quartz-clay mixtures, involving relatively flat clay-related pores and more rounded quartz-related pores) and laboratory results for the ultrasonic velocity and attenuation spectra of a suite of typical reservoir rocks. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Acoustic and petrophysical relationships in low-shale sandstone reservoir rocks

This paper describes the measurements of the acoustic and petrophysical properties of two suites of low-shale sandstone samples from North Sea hydrocarbon reservoirs, under simulated reservoir conditions. The acoustic velocities and quality factors of the samples, saturated with different pore fluids (brine, dead oil and kerosene), were measured at a frequency of about 0.8 MHz and over a range of pressures from 5 MPa to 40 MPa. The compressional-wave velocity is strongly correlated with the shear-wave velocity in this suite of rocks. The ratio V-P/V-S varies significantly with change of both pore-fluid type and differential pressure, confirming the usefulness of this parameter for seismic monitoring of producing reservoirs. The results of quality factor measurements were compared with predictions from Biot-flow and squirt-flow loss mechanisms. The results suggested that the dominating loss in these samples is due to squirt-flow of fluid between the pores of various geometries. The contribution of the Biot-flow loss mechanism to the total loss is negligible. The compressional-wave quality factor was shown to be inversely correlated with rock permeability, suggesting the possibility of using attenuation as a permeability indicator tool in low-shale, high-porosity sandstone reservoirs.

MEASUREMENT AND MODELING OF THE TOXICITY OF BINARY MIXTURES IN THE NEMATODE CAENORHABDITIS ELEGANS-A TEST OF INDEPENDENT ACTION

Ecological risk assessments must increasingly consider the effects of chemical mixtures on the environment as anthropogenic pollution continues to grow in complexity. Yet testing every possible mixture combination is impractical and unfeasible; thus, there is an urgent need for models that can accurately predict mixture toxicity from single-compound data. Currently, two models are frequently used to predict mixture toxicity from single-compound data: Concentration addition and independent action (IA). The accuracy of the predictions generated by these models is currently debated and needs to be resolved before their use in risk assessments can be fully justified. The present study addresses this issue by determining whether the IA model adequately described the toxicity of binary mixtures of five pesticides and other environmental contaminants (cadmium, chlorpyrifos, diuron, nickel, and prochloraz) each with dissimilar modes of action on the reproduction of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. In three out of 10 cases, the IA model failed to describe mixture toxicity adequately with significant or antagonism being observed. In a further three cases, there was an indication of synergy, antagonism, and effect-level-dependent deviations, respectively, but these were not statistically significant. The extent of the significant deviations that were found varied, but all were such that the predicted percentage effect seen on reproductive output would have been wrong by 18 to 35% (i.e., the effect concentration expected to cause a 50% effect led to an 85% effect). The presence of such a high number and variety of deviations has important implications for the use of existing mixture toxicity models for risk assessments, especially where all or part of the deviation is synergistic.

Hydraulic modeling of runoff over a rough surface under partial inundation

This study presents a numerical method to derive the Darcy- Weisbach friction coefficient for overland flow under partial inundation of surface roughness. To better account for the variable influence of roughness with varying levels of emergence, we model the flow over a network which evolves as the free surface rises. This network is constructed using a height numerical map, based on surface roughness data, and a discrete geometry skeletonization algorithm. By applying a hydraulic model to the flows through this network, local heads, velocities, and Froude and Reynolds numbers over the surface can be estimated. These quantities enable us to analyze the flow and ultimately to derive a bulk friction factor for flow over the entire surface which takes into account local variations in flow quantities. Results demonstrate that although the flow is laminar, head losses are chiefly inertial because of local flow disturbances. The results also emphasize that for conditions of partial inundation, flow resistance varies nonmonotonically but does generally increase with progressive roughness inundation.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Modeling infant speech sound discrimination using simple associative networks

Infants' responses in speech sound discrimination tasks can be nonmonotonic over time. Stager and Werker (1997) reported such data in a bimodal habituation task. In this task, 8-month-old infants were capable of discriminations that involved minimal contrast pairs, whereas 14-month-old infants were not. It was argued that the older infants' attenuated performance was linked to their processing of the stimuli for meaning. The authors suggested that these data are diagnostic of a qualitative shift in infant cognition. We describe an associative connectionist model showing a similar decrement in discrimination without any qualitative shift in processing. The model suggests that responses to phonemic contrasts may be a nonmonotonic function of experience with language. The implications of this idea are discussed. The model also provides a formal framework for studying habituation-dishabituation behaviors in infancy.

Modeling the user knowledge by belief networks

This paper describes the user modeling component of EPIAIM, a consultation system for data analysis in epidemiology. The component is aimed at representing knowledge of concepts in the domain, so that their explanations can be adapted to user needs. The first part of the paper describes two studies aimed at analysing user requirements. The first one is a questionnaire study which examines the respondents' familiarity with concepts. The second one is an analysis of concept descriptions in textbooks and from expert epidemiologists, which examines how discourse strategies are tailored to the level of experience of the expected audience. The second part of the paper describes how the results of these studies have been used to design the user modeling component of EPIAIM. This module works in a two-step approach. In the first step, a few trigger questions allow the activation of a stereotype that includes a "body" and an "inference component". The body is the representation of the body of knowledge that a class of users is expected to know, along with the probability that the knowledge is known. In the inference component, the learning process of concepts is represented as a belief network. Hence, in the second step the belief network is used to refine the initial default information in the stereotype's body. This is done by asking a few questions on those concepts where it is uncertain whether or not they are known to the user, and propagating this new evidence to revise the whole situation. The system has been implemented on a workstation under UNIX. An example of functioning is presented, and advantages and limitations of the approach are discussed.

Modeling of atmospheric effects on InSAR measurements by incorporating terrain elevation information

We propose an elevation-dependent calibratory method to correct for the water vapour-induced delays over Mt. Etna that affect the interferometric syntheric aperture radar (InSAR) results. Water vapour delay fields are modelled from individual zenith delay estimates on a network of continuous GPS receivers. These are interpolated using simple kriging with varying local means over two domains, above and below 2 km in altitude. Test results with data from a meteorological station and 14 continuous GPS stations over Mt. Etna show that a reduction of the mean phase delay field of about 27% is achieved after the model is applied to a 35-day interferogram. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A wavenumber independent boundary element method for an acoustic scattering problem

In this paper we consider the impedance boundary value problem for the Helmholtz equation in a half-plane with piecewise constant boundary data, a problem which models, for example, outdoor sound propagation over inhomogeneous. at terrain. To achieve good approximation at high frequencies with a relatively low number of degrees of freedom, we propose a novel Galerkin boundary element method, using a graded mesh with smaller elements adjacent to discontinuities in impedance and a special set of basis functions so that, on each element, the approximation space contains polynomials ( of degree.) multiplied by traces of plane waves on the boundary. We prove stability and convergence and show that the error in computing the total acoustic field is O( N-(v+1) log(1/2) N), where the number of degrees of freedom is proportional to N logN. This error estimate is independent of the wavenumber, and thus the number of degrees of freedom required to achieve a prescribed level of accuracy does not increase as the wavenumber tends to infinity.