Proportionality and Party Success in Europe

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles are about proportionality and party success in Europe, at European, national or district levels. Proportionality in this thesis denotes the proximity of seat shares parties receive compared to their respective vote shares, after the electoral system’s allocation process. This proportionality can be measured through numerous indices that illustrate either the overall proportionality of an electoral system or a particular election. The correspondence of a single party’s seat shares to its vote shares can also be measured. The overall proportionality is essential in three of the articles (1, 2 and 4), where the system’s performance is studied by means of plots. In article 3, minority party success is measured by advantage-ratios that reveal single party’s winnings or losses in the votes to seat allocation process. The first article asks how proportional are the European parliamentary (EP) electoral systems, how do they compare with results gained from earlier studies and how do the EP electoral systems treat different sized parties. The reasons for different outcomes are looked for in explanations given by traditional electoral studies i.e. electoral system variables. The countries studied (EU15) apply electoral systems that vary in many important aspects, even though a certain amount of uniformity has been aspired to for decades. Since the electoral systems of the EP elections closely resemble the national elections, the same kinds of profiles emerge as in the national elections. The electoral systems indeed treat the parties differentially and six different profile types can be found. The counting method seems to somewhat determine the profile group, but the strongest variables determining the shape of a countries’ profile appears to be the average district magnitude and number of seats allocated to each country. The second article also focuses on overall proportionality performance of an electoral system, but here the focus is on the impact of electoral system changes. I have developed a new method of visualizing some previously used indices and some new indices for this purpose. The aim is to draw a comparable picture of these electoral systems’ changes and their effects. The cases, which illustrate this method, are four elections systems, where a change has occurred in one of the system variables, while the rest remained unchanged. The studied cases include the French, Greek and British European parliamentary systems and the Swedish national parliamentary system. The changed variables are electoral type (plurality changed to PR in the UK), magnitude (France splitting the nationwide district into eight smaller districts), legal threshold (Greece introducing a three percent threshold) and counting method (d’Hondt was changed to modified Sainte-Laguë in Sweden). The radar plots from elections after and before the changes are drawn for all country cases. When quantifying the change, the change in the plots area that is created has also been calculated. Using these radar plots we can observe that the change in electoral system type, magnitude, and also to some extent legal threshold had an effect on overall proportionality and accessibility for small parties, while the change between the two highest averages counting method had none. The third article studies the success minority parties have had in nine electoral systems in European heterogeneous countries. This article aims to add more motivation as to why we should care how different sized parties are treated by the electoral systems. Since many of the parties that aspire to represent minorities in European countries are small, the possibilities for small parties are highlighted. The theory of consociational (or power-sharing) democracy suggests that, in heterogeneous societies, a proportional electoral system will provide the fairest treatment of minority parties. The OSCE Lund Recommendations propose a number of electoral system features, which would improve minority representation. In this article some party variables, namely the unity of the minority parties and the geographical concentration of the minorities were included among possible explanations. The conclusions are that the central points affecting minority success were indeed these non-electoral system variables rather than the electoral system itself. Moreover, the size of the party was a major factor governing success in all the systems investigated; large parties benefited in all the studied electoral systems. In the fourth article the proportionality profiles are again applied, but this time to district level results in Finnish parliamentary elections. The level of proportionality distortion is also studied by way of indices. The average magnitudes during the studied periodrange from 7.5 to 26.2 in the Finnish electoral districts and this opens up unequal opportunities for parties in different districts and affects the shape of the profiles. The intra-country case allows the focus to be placed on the effect of district magnitude, since all other electoral systems are kept constant in an intra-country study. The time span in the study is from 1962 to 2007, i.e. the time that the districts have largely been the same geographically. The plots and indices tell the same story, district magnitude and electoral alliances matter. The district magnitude is connected to the overall proportionality of the electoral districts according to both indices, and the profiles are, as expected, also closer to perfect proportionality in large districts. Alliances have helped some small parties to gain a much higher seat share than their respective vote share and these successes affect some of the profiles. The profiles also show a consistent pattern of benefits for the small parties who ally with the larger parties.

Immune correlates of vaccine protection against HIV-1 acquisition.

The partial efficacy reported in the RV144 HIV vaccine trial in 2009 has driven the HIV vaccine field to define correlates of risk associated with HIV-1 acquisition and connect these functionally to preventing HIV infection. Immunological correlates, mainly including CD4(+) T cell responses to the HIV envelope and Fc-mediated antibody effector function, have been connected to reduced acquisition. These immunological correlates place immunological and genetic pressure on the virus. Indeed, antibodies directed at conserved regions of the V1V2 loop and antibodies that mediate antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity to HIV envelope in the absence of inhibiting serum immunoglobulin A antibodies correlated with decreased HIV risk. More recently, researchers have expanded their search with nonhuman primate studies using vaccine regimens that differ from that used in RV144; these studies indicate that non-neutralizing antibodies are associated with protection from experimental lentivirus challenge as well. These immunological correlates have provided the basis for the design of a next generation of vaccine regimens to improve upon the qualitative and quantitative degree of magnitude of these immune responses on HIV acquisition.

Prospective evaluation of circulating VEGF in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with bevacizumab, pemetrexed and cisplatin in the trial SAKK19/09.

Aim: Bevacizumab is a monoclonal antibody directed against the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). The previous phase II trial ABIGAIL (Reck, 2010) suggested circulating VEGF as a prognostic, but not predictive, biomarker for patients (pts) with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with bevacizumab. We prospectively measured VEGF in the multicenter phase II trial SAKK19/09 (NCT01116219). Methods: SAKK19/09 enrolled 77 evaluable patients (pts) with previously untreated, advanced nonsquamous NSCLC and EGFR wild type. Pts received 4 cycles of cisplatin 75mg/m2 (or carboplatin AUC5), pemetrexed 500mg/m2 and bevacizumab 7.5mg/kg, followed by maintenance therapy with pemetrexed and bevacizumab until progression by RECIST1.1. Follow-up CT scans were performed every 6 weeks until week 54 and every 12 weeks thereafter. Baseline EDTA blood samples were sent by same-day courier to the central laboratory for centrifugation, aliquoting, and freezing. Upon completion of enrollment, aliquots were thawed, and VEGF quantification was performed centrally using Luminex® Performance Assay Human Base Kit A (R&D Systems, Abingdon, UK). The mean value was used to stratify pts into two groups (low versus high VEGF). Best response rate assessed by RECIST1.1 (CR + PR versus SD + PD). Results: Clinical results of the SAKK19/09 trial were reported previously (Gautschi, 2013). Baseline plasma VEGF was detectable in 71 of 77 (92%) evaluable patients treated with chemotherapy and bevacizumab. The mean value was 74.9 pg/ml, the median 47.5 pg/ml, and the range 3.55 to 310 pg/ml. Using the mean as a predefined cutoff value, 50 patients had low VEGF levels and 21 patients had high VEGF levels. High VEGF was significantly associated with shorter PFS (4.1 vs 8.3 months, HR = 2.56; 95%CI: 1.43- 4.57; p = 0.0015) and OS (8.7 vs 17.5 months, HR = 2.67; 95% CI: 1.37-5.20; p = 0.0041), but not with best response rate ( p = 0.2256). Conclusions: Consistent with the ABIGAIL trial, circulating VEGF was prognostic, but not predictive for response, in the current trial. Further work is ongoing to identify potentially predictive biomarkers for bevacizumab, using comprehensive proteomic analyses. Disclosure: S.I. Rothschild: I received honoraria for the participation in advisory boards from Eli Lilly and Roche and for presentations at scientific symposiums sponsored by Roche; O. Gautschi: Honoraria for advisory boards of Eli Lilly and Roche; R. Cathomas: Advisory board member: Eli Lilly. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Iron metabolism and incidence of metabolic syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Whether iron metabolism affects metabolic syndrome (METS) is debated. We assessed the association between several markers of iron metabolism and incidence of METS. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 3271 participants (1870 women, 51.3 ± 10.4 years), free of METS at baseline and followed for 5.5 years. The association of serum iron, ferritin and transferrin with incident METS was assessed separately by gender. Incidence of METS was 22.6% in men and 16.5% in women (p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment, a positive association was found between transferrin and incident METS in men: odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval for the fourth relative to the first quartile 1.55 (1.04-2.31), p for trend = 0.03, while no association was found for iron OR = 0.81 (0.53-1.24), p for trend = 0.33 and ferritin OR = 1.30 (0.88-1.92), p for trend = 0.018. In women, a negative association was found between iron and incident METS: OR for the fourth relative to the first quartile 0.51 (0.33-0.80), p for trend<0.03; the association between transferrin and incident METS was borderline significant: OR = 1.45 (0.97-2.17), p for trend = 0.07 and no association was found for ferritin: OR = 1.11 (0.76-1.63), p for trend = 0.58. CONCLUSION: Transferrin, not ferritin, is independently associated with an increased risk of incident METS; the protective effect of iron in women should be further explored.

Animal modelling for inherited central vision loss.

Disease-causing variants of a large number of genes trigger inherited retinal degeneration leading to photoreceptor loss. Because cones are essential for daylight and central vision such as reading, mobility, and face recognition, this review focuses on a variety of animal models for cone diseases. The pertinence of using these models to reveal genotype/phenotype correlations and to evaluate new therapeutic strategies is discussed. Interestingly, several large animal models recapitulate human diseases and can serve as a strong base from which to study the biology of disease and to assess the scale-up of new therapies. Examples of innovative approaches will be presented such as lentiviral-based transgenesis in pigs and adeno-associated virus (AAV)-gene transfer into the monkey eye to investigate the neural circuitry plasticity of the visual system. The models reported herein permit the exploration of common mechanisms that exist between different species and the identification and highlighting of pathways that may be specific to primates, including humans.

High prevalence of PRPH2 in autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa in france and characterization of biochemical and clinical features.

PURPOSE: To assess the prevalence of PRPH2 in autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa (adRP), to report 6 novel mutations, to characterize the biochemical features of a recurrent novel mutation, and to study the clinical features of adRP patients. DESIGN: Retrospective clinical and molecular genetic study. METHODS: Clinical investigations included visual field testing, fundus examination, high-resolution spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT), fundus autofluorescence imaging, and electroretinogram (ERG) recording. PRPH2 was screened by Sanger sequencing in a cohort of 310 French families with adRP. Peripherin-2 protein was produced in yeast and analyzed by Western blot. RESULTS: We identified 15 mutations, including 6 novel and 9 previously reported changes in 32 families, accounting for a prevalence of 10.3% in this adRP population. We showed that a new recurrent p.Leu254Gln mutation leads to protein aggregation, suggesting abnormal folding. The clinical severity of the disease in examined patients was moderate with 78% of the eyes having 1-0.5 of visual acuity and 52% of the eyes retaining more than 50% of the visual field. Some patients characteristically showed vitelliform deposits or macular involvement. In some families, pericentral RP or macular dystrophy were found in family members while widespread RP was present in other members of the same families. CONCLUSIONS: The mutations in PRPH2 account for 10.3% of adRP in the French population, which is higher than previously reported (0%-8%) This makes PRPH2 the second most frequent adRP gene after RHO in our series. PRPH2 mutations cause highly variable phenotypes and moderate forms of adRP, including mild cases, which could be underdiagnosed.

Ilmatotieteeseenkin kuuluu skeptisyys

Keskustelua

L'étude de cas : dialogue entre recherche et pratique en psychologie clinique et en psychothérapie

Un cas exemplaire, un cas d'école, un beau cas, un cas de figure, un cas extrême, un cas particulier, un cas épineux, un cas limite ... Les modalités de l'étude de cas sont multiples et expriment le fait que tout raisonnement suivi, toute explication, toute théorie bute une fois ou l'autre sur la nécessité d'explorer et d'approfondir les propriétés d'une singularité accessible à l'observation. Publier un ouvrage sur la question du cas unique, c'est participer à ce moment de réflexion sur les méthodes scientifiques en psychologie. C'est aussi oeuvrer à un repositionnement constructif de cette modalité de faire science, en donnant la parole aux auteurs spécialistes de ces questions ou directement concernés par celles-ci à travers leurs recherches ou leurs pratiques.

Estimation de l'impact économique de l'introduction d'un test diagnostique rapide pour le dépistage des MRSA au CHUV

Contexte : Parmi les infections nosocomiales, le Staphylocoque méticilline résistant (MRSA) est le germe pathogène le plus couramment identifié dans les hôpitaux du monde entier. La stratégie de contrôle des MRSA au CHUV implique le dépistage des patients à risque. Avec la méthode de dépistage par culture, le temps d'attente est de plusieurs jours. Ceci occasionne des problèmes dans la gestion des flux des patients, principalement à cause des mesures d'isolement. Pour réduire le temps d'attente, l'hôpital envisage d'utiliser une méthode de diagnostic rapide par "polymerase chain reaction" (PCR). Méthodologie : Les données concernant les dépistages réalisés, dans trois services durant l'année 2007, ont été utilisées. Le nombre de jours d'isolement a d'abord été déterminé par patient et par service. Ensuite une analyse des coûts a été effectuée afin d'évaluer la différence des coûts entre les deux méthodes pour chaque service. Résultats : Le principal impact économique de la méthode par PCR dépend principalement du nombre de jours d'isolements évités par rapport à la méthode de culture. Aux services de soins, l'analyse a été menée sur 192 dépistages. Quand la différence de jours d'isolement est de deux jours, le coût des dépistages diminue de plus de 12kCHF et le nombre de jours d'isolement diminue de 384 jours. Au centre interdisciplinaire des urgences, sur 96 dépistages, le gain potentiel avec la méthode PCR est de 6kCHF avec une diminution de 192 jours d'isolement. Aux soins intensifs adultes, la méthode de dépistage par PCR est la méthode la plus rentable avec une diminution des coûts entre 4KCHF et 20K CHF et une diminution des jours d'isolement entre 170 et 310. Pour les trois services analysés, les résultats montrent un rapport coût-efficacité favorable pour la méthode PCR lorsque la diminution des jours d'isolement est supérieure à 1.3 jour. Quand la différence de jours d'isolement est inférieure à 1.3, il faut tenir compte d'autres paramètres, comme le coût de matériel qui doit être supérieur à 45.5 CHF, et du nombre d'analyses par dépistage, qui doit être inférieur à 3, pour que la PCR reste l'alternative la plus intéressante. Conclusions : La méthode par PCR montre des avantages potentiels importants, tant économiques qu'organisationnels qui limitent ou diminuent les contraintes liées à la stratégie de contrôle des MRSA au CHUV. [Auteure, p. 3]

Profound hyperglycemia in knockout mutant mice identifies novel function for POU4F2/Brn-3b in regulating metabolic processes.

The POU4F2/Brn-3b transcription factor has been identified as a potentially novel regulator of key metabolic processes. Loss of this protein in Brn-3b knockout (KO) mice causes profound hyperglycemia and insulin resistance (IR), normally associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), whereas Brn-3b is reduced in tissues taken from obese mice fed on high-fat diets (HFD), which also develop hyperglycemia and IR. Furthermore, studies in C2C12 myocytes show that Brn-3b mRNA and proteins are induced by glucose but inhibited by insulin, suggesting that this protein is itself highly regulated in responsive cells. Analysis of differential gene expression in skeletal muscle from Brn-3b KO mice showed changes in genes that are implicated in T2D such as increased glycogen synthase kinase-3β and reduced GLUT4 glucose transporter. The GLUT4 gene promoter contains multiple Brn-3b binding sites and is directly transactivated by this transcription factor in cotransfection assays, whereas chromatin immunoprecipitation assays confirm that Brn-3b binds to this promoter in vivo. In addition, correlation between GLUT4 and Brn-3b in KO tissues or in C2C12 cells strongly supports a close association between Brn-3b levels and GLUT4 expression. Since Brn-3b is regulated by metabolites and insulin, this may provide a mechanism for controlling key genes that are required for normal metabolic processes in insulin-responsive tissues and its loss may contribute to abnormal glucose uptake.

Same Performance Changes after Live High-Train Low in Normobaric vs. Hypobaric Hypoxia.

PURPOSE: We investigated the changes in physiological and performance parameters after a Live High-Train Low (LHTL) altitude camp in normobaric (NH) or hypobaric hypoxia (HH) to reproduce the actual training practices of endurance athletes using a crossover-designed study. METHODS: Well-trained triathletes (n = 16) were split into two groups and completed two 18-day LTHL camps during which they trained at 1100-1200 m and lived at 2250 m (P i O2 = 111.9 ± 0.6 vs. 111.6 ± 0.6 mmHg) under NH (hypoxic chamber; FiO2 18.05 ± 0.03%) or HH (real altitude; barometric pressure 580.2 ± 2.9 mmHg) conditions. The subjects completed the NH and HH camps with a 1-year washout period. Measurements and protocol were identical for both phases of the crossover study. Oxygen saturation (S p O2) was constantly recorded nightly. P i O2 and training loads were matched daily. Blood samples and VO2max were measured before (Pre-) and 1 day after (Post-1) LHTL. A 3-km running-test was performed near sea level before and 1, 7, and 21 days after training camps. RESULTS: Total hypoxic exposure was lower for NH than for HH during LHTL (230 vs. 310 h; P < 0.001). Nocturnal S p O2 was higher in NH than in HH (92.4 ± 1.2 vs. 91.3 ± 1.0%, P < 0.001). VO2max increased to the same extent for NH and HH (4.9 ± 5.6 vs. 3.2 ± 5.1%). No difference was found in hematological parameters. The 3-km run time was significantly faster in both conditions 21 days after LHTL (4.5 ± 5.0 vs. 6.2 ± 6.4% for NH and HH), and no difference between conditions was found at any time. CONCLUSION: Increases in VO2max and performance enhancement were similar between NH and HH conditions.

Aplicação de métodos quimiométricos na especiação de Cr(VI) em solução aquosa

The equilibria, the spectra and the identities of the species of Cr(VI) that are present in aqueous solution have long been an active subject of discussion in the literature. In this paper, three different chemometric methodologies are applied to sets of UV/Visible spectra of aqueous Cr(VI) solutions, in order to solve a chemical system where there is no available information concerning the composition of the samples nor spectral information about the pure species. Imbrie Q-mode factor analysis, followed by varimax rotation and Imbrie oblique projection, were used to estimate the composition of Cr(VI) equilibrium solutions and, by combining these results with the k-matrix method, to obtain the pure spectra of the species. Evolving factor analysis and self modeling curve resolution were used to confirm the number of the species and the resolution of the system, respectively. Sets of 3.3×10-4 and 3.3×10-5 mol L-1 Cr(VI) solutions, respectively, were analyzed in the pH range from 1 to 12. Two factors were identified, which were related to the chromate ion (CrO4(2-)) and bichromate ion (HCrO4-). The pK of the equilibrium was estimated as 5.8.

Doppelfuge

Soitinnus: jousikvartetti.

Projectes de modelatge i simulació avançada de sistemes mitjançant l'entorn ARENA

En l’exercici de les funcions típiques de qualsevol activitat humana, l’home ha de prendre decisions d’un o altre tipus permanentment i aquesta situació porta afegit, per lo general risc i incertesa, el que compromet la qualitat i l’èxit de la decisió. Per ajudar i contrarestar aquesta situació, l’home ha desenvolupat a través del temps una diversitat d’eines que li permeten minimitzar el risc i la incertesa en la presa de decisions. La simulació és una d’aquestes eines. Mitjançant la seva aplicació no només s’aconsegueix la comesa anterior, sinó que també es minimitzen els costos involucrats en la decisió mitjançant un millor ús dels recursos, la disminució del temps emprat per a la seva realització i la minimització de les probabilitats de risc. Aquest projecte representa la continuació d’un primer estudi introductori de la simulació anomenat: Estudi i guia docent per a modelatge i simulació de sistemes mitjançant l’entorn ARENA [9]. Realitzat per l’alumna d’Enginyeria en Organització Industrial de la Universitat de Vic, Montse Carbonell Crosas, l’any 2008 i sota la codirecció del director d’aquest segon projecte, el professor Juli Ordeix Rigo. Aquest nou projecte s’inicia amb una primera part teòrica, continguda dins del primer volum, la qual reforça els conceptes teòrics referents a la simulació amb ARENA, ja vistos en l’anterior projecte. Complementant aquells considerats bàsics i els de més utilitat i finalitza introduint nous conceptes avançats. Els nous capítols de temàtica avançada, junt als primers més bàsics de la primera part són exercitats dins de la segona, formant el segon volum d’aquest projecte. El mateix requereix la participació activa de l’alumne, per tal de realitzar cadascun dels 89 exercicis pràctics que es plantegen i poder onsolidar l’aprenentatge teòric d’aquesta eina avançada de simulació fent consultes als apartats teòrics recomanats dins de cada exercici. La complexitat dels exercicis anirà augmentant gradualment i s’insisteix en seguir la metodologia presentada en el projecte per a realitzar-los tots de forma ordenada i ascendent. L’ alumne quan acabi la part pràctica, haurà consolidat tota la part teòrica i serà capaç d’exercir com analista per tal de generar els seus propis projecte de simulació.

Le Constitutionnel : journal politique et littéraire

1816/11/05 (Numéro 310).