Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Surface science of plasma exposed surfaces : a challenge for applied plasma science

This article introduces a deterministic approach to using low-temperature, thermally non-equilibrium plasmas to synthesize delicate low-dimensional nanostructures of a small number of atoms on plasma exposed surfaces. This approach is based on a set of plasma-related strategies to control elementary surface processes, an area traditionally covered by surface science. Major issues related to balanced delivery and consumption of building units, appropriate choice of process conditions, and account of plasma-related electric fields, electric charges and polarization effects are identified and discussed in the quantum dot nanoarray context. Examples of a suitable plasma-aided nanofabrication facility and specific effects of a plasma-based environment on self-organized growth of size- and position-uniform nanodot arrays are shown. These results suggest a very positive outlook for using low-temperature plasma-based nanotools in high-precision nanofabrication of self-assembled nanostructures and elements of nanodevices, one of the areas of continuously rising demand from academia and industry.

People’s perceptions about the importance of forests on Borneo

We ascertained villagers’ perceptions about the importance of forests for their livelihoods and health through 1,837 reliably answered interviews of mostly male respondents from 185 villages in Indonesian and Malaysian Borneo. Variation in these perceptions related to several environmental and social variables, as shown in classification and regression analyses. Overall patterns indicated that forest use and cultural values are highest among people on Borneo who live close to remaining forest, and especially among older Christian residents. Support for forest clearing depended strongly on the scale at which deforestation occurs. Deforestation for small-scale agriculture was generally considered to be positive because it directly benefits people’s welfare. Large-scale deforestation (e.g., for industrial oil palm or acacia plantations), on the other hand, appeared to be more context-dependent, with most respondents considering it to have overall negative impacts on them, but with people in some areas considering the benefits to outweigh the costs. The interviews indicated high awareness of negative environmental impacts of deforestation, with high levels of concern over higher temperatures, air pollution and loss of clean water sources. Our study is unique in its geographic and trans-national scale. Our findings enable the development of maps of forest use and perceptions that could inform land use planning at a range of scales. Incorporating perspectives such as these could significantly reduce conflict over forest resources and ultimately result in more equitable development processes.

Training needs research applied to the development of a standardised incident investigator training framework

In response to the rail industry lacking a consistently accepted standard of minimal training to perform incident investigations, the Australasian rail industry requested the development of a unified approach to investigator training. This paper details how the findings from a training needs analysis were applied to inform the development of a standardised training package for rail incident investigators. Data from job descriptions, training documents and subject matter experts sourced from 17 Australasian organisations were analysed and refined to yield a draft set of 10 critical competencies. Finally the draft of critical competencies was reviewed by industry experts to verify the accuracy and completeness of the competency list and to consider the most appropriate level of qualification for training development. The competencies identified and the processes described to translate research into an applied training framework in this paper, can be generalised to assist practitioners and researchers in developing industry approved standardised training packages.

Regional trade-offs between mine water and energy use : a water treatment case study

The mining industry faces concurrent pressures of reducing water use, energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming years. However, the interactions between water and energy use, as well as GHG e missions have largely been neglected in modelling studies to date. In addition, investigations tend to focus on the unit operation scale, with little consideration of whole-of-site or regional scale effects. This paper presents an application of a hierarchical systems model (HSM) developed to represent water, energy and GHG emissions fluxes at scales ranging from the unit operation, to the site level, to the regional level. The model allows for the linkages between water use, energy use and GHG emissions to be examined in a fl exible and intuitive way, so that mine sites can predict energy and emissions impacts of water use reduction schemes and vice versa. This paper examines whether this approach can also be applied to the regional scale with multiple mine sites. The model is used to conduct a case study of several coal mines in the Bowen Basin, Australia, to compare the utility of centralised and decentralised mine water treatment schemes. The case study takes into account geographical factors (such as water pumping distances and elevations), economic factors (such as capital and operating cost curves for desalination treatment plants) and regional factors (such as regionally varying climates and associated variance in mine water volumes and quality). The case study results indicate that treatment of saline mine water incurs a trade-off between water and energy use in all cases. However, significant cost differences between centralised and decentralised schemes can be observed in a simple economic analysis. Further research will examine the possibility for deriving model up-scaling algorithms to reduce computational requirements.

Contrast transfer function correction applied to cryo-electron tomography and sub-tomogram averaging

Cryo-electron tomography together with averaging of sub-tomograms containing identical particles can reveal the structure of proteins or protein complexes in their native environment. The resolution of this technique is limited by the contrast transfer function (CTF) of the microscope. The CTF is not routinely corrected in cryo-electron tomography because of difficulties including CTF detection, due to the low signal to noise ratio, and CTF correction, since images are characterised by a spatially variant CTF. Here we simulate the effects of the CTF on the resolution of the final reconstruction, before and after CTF correction, and consider the effect of errors and approximations in defocus determination. We show that errors in defocus determination are well tolerated when correcting a series of tomograms collected at a range of defocus values. We apply methods for determining the CTF parameters in low signal to noise images of tilted specimens, for monitoring defocus changes using observed magnification changes, and for correcting the CTF prior to reconstruction. Using bacteriophage PRDI as a test sample, we demonstrate that this approach gives an improvement in the structure obtained by sub-tomogram averaging from cryo-electron tomograms.

Performance psychology applied to dance

The recent interest in the area of performance psychology has included a focus on applied practice within the performing arts. The use of psychology within this field has been occurring for many years, although practice has been observed to originate primarily from within clinical psychology in dealing with ‘problems’ (e.g. eating disorders). During the past 15 years, increased interest and focus has come from the field of sport psychology and its application to fields such as dance. Experience with the application of sport psychology in the dance profession has shown that dancers identify primarily with the concept of performance psychology. The focus of applied performance psychology practice with dancers has been observed to incorporate principles from across sport, clinical and organisational psychology, yet packaged together in such a way that the focus is on performance enhancement – whether that be in terms of dance technique, artistry, creativity, or personal skill development both on and off the stage. This paper focuses upon sharing the practitioner’s experience of the delivery of performance psychology to dancers (both professionals and dancers-in-training), and discussion of the considerations related to this undertaking within this unique population.

The economics of credence goods : an experiment on the role of liability, verifiability, reputation and competition

Credence goods markets are characterized by asymmetric information between sellers and consumers that may give rise to inefficiencies, such as under- and overtreatment or market breakdown. We study in a large experiment with 936 participants the determinants for efficiency in credence goods markets. While theory predicts that liability or verifiability yield efficiency, we find that liability has a crucial, but verifiability at best a minor, effect. Allowing sellers to build up reputation has little influence, as predicted. Seller competition drives down prices and yields maximal trade, but does not lead to higher efficiency as long as liability is violated. (JEL D12, D82)

Good choices, great future : an applied theatre prevention program to reduce alcohol-related risky behaviours during Schoolies

Introduction and Aims. The contextual and temporal factors of post-school celebratory events ('Schoolies') place young people at elevated risk of excessive drinking compared with other social occasions. This study investigates the impact of an applied theatre prevention program 'Choices' in reducing the risk of drinking and other risk behaviours during Schoolies celebrations. Design and Methods. Choices was delivered in the last term of Year 12 across 28 North Queensland schools. A total of 352 school leavers (43.1% male, mean age=17.14years) completed a questionnaire at Whitsunday Schoolies, Queensland, Australia on 23-24 November 2010. Nearly 49% of respondents had attended Choices. The survey included measures of alcohol use, illicit drug use and associated problems during Schoolies and a month prior to Schoolies. Results. After controlling for gender and pre-Schoolies drinking, school leavers who attended Choices were significantly less likely to report illicit drug use (OR=0.51, P<0.05) and problem behaviours (OR=0.40, P<0.01) than those who did not attend Choices. There was, however, no intervention effect in risky drinking (i.e. drank on 5 or more days, typical amount five or more standard drink and binge drank on 3 or more days) at Schoolies (OR=0.92, P=0.80). Discussion and Conclusions. Delivery of a youth-specific applied theatre prevention program employing a harm minimisation framework may be effective in reducing high-risk behaviours associated with alcohol consumption at celebratory events, even if young people expect to engage in excessive alcohol consumption. [Quek L-H, White A, Low C, Brown J, Dalton N, Dow D, Connor JP. Good choices, great future: An applied theatre prevention program to reduce alcohol-related risky behaviours during Schoolies. Drug Alcohol Rev 2012;31:897–902]

Improving information in project appraisal using hedonic pricing : a case study of marina berthing charges

Hedonic pricing techniques can be used to generate quantitative information useful to the project appraiser at various stages of the project cycle, most notably project formulation and investment appraisal. To illustrate, a hedonic pricing model is applied to marina berthing charges in England and Wales. The technique determines the relevant marina facilities that are reflected in marina rental price. The contribution of the key marina facilities is expressed in monetary terms as the contribution to cost per overall rental price per foot.

Reconsidering media economics: From orthodoxies to heterodoxies

This paper argues the case for closer attention to media economics on the part of media, communications and cultural studies researchers. It points to a plurality of approaches to media economics, that include the mainstream neoclassical school and critical political economy, but also new insights derived from perspectives that are less well-known outside of the economics discipline, such as new institutional economics and evolutionary economics. It applies these frameworks to current debates about the future of public service media (PSM), noting limitations to both ‘market failure’ and citizenship discourses, and identifying challenges relating to institutional governance, public policy and innovation as PSMs worldwide adapt to a digitally convergent media environment.

Superstars as drivers of organizational identification : empirical findings from professional soccer

This paper examines the effect of superstars on external stakeholders’ organizational identification through the lens of sport. Drawing on social identity theory and the concept of organizational identification, as well as on role model theories and superstar economics, several hypotheses are developed regarding the influence of soccer stars on their fans’ degree of team identification. Using a proprietary data set that combines archival data on professional German soccer players and clubs with survey data on more than 1,400 soccer fans, this study finds evidence for a positive effect of superstar characteristics and role model perception. Moreover, it is found that players who qualify for the definition of a superstar are more important to fans of established teams than to fans of unsuccessful teams. The player's club tenure, however, seems to have no influence on fans’ team identification. It is further argued that the effect of soccer stars on their fans is comparable to that of executives on external stakeholders, and hence, the results are applied to the business domain. The results of this study contribute to existing research by extending the list of personnel-related determinants of organizational identification.