902 resultados para two stage quantile regression


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INTRODUCTION: Triatoma pseudomaculata and T. wygodzinskyi (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) are two Brazilian vectors of Chagas disease. The first is an arboricolous species in sylvatic environment and considered a vector of T. cruzi in peridomestic structures; the second, a rupicolous species in the wild environment of no epidemiological importance. In order to test the assumption that sister species share biological traits, comparative studies of their development cycle and blood ingestion were conducted. METHODS: Eggs laid by five field females of each species were randomly selected. The nymphs were observed daily and fed on mice weekly. The time required to pass through the different stages to adulthood was recorded in days. The triatomines were weighed individually before and after feeding. The mortality rate according to each nymphal stage was calculated. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the results shows that they display only minor biological differences even though they exhibit a distinct ecology. This suggests that the biological traits are important criteria to determine the relationship between species.

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INTRODUCTION: Angiostrongylus vasorum is a nematode that parasitizes molluscs, dogs, and even man. METHODS: The objective was to evaluate the predatory activity of the conidia of two fungal isolates of Duddingtonia flagrans (AC001 and CG722) on first-stage larvae (L1) of A. vasorum in laboratory conditions. RESULTS: At the end of the experiment, there were significant reductions (p<0.01) of 74.5% and 63.2%, on average, in the A. vasorum L1 recovered in the AC001 and CG722 treatment conditions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The two isolates of fungi were efficient in the capture and destruction of A. vasorum L1.

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Due to global warming and shrinking fossil fuel resources, politics as well as society urge for a reduction of green house gas (GHG) emissions. This leads to a re-orientation towards a renewable energy sector. In this context, innovation and new technologies are key success factors. Moreover, the renewable energy sector has entered a consolidation stage, where corporate investors and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) gain in importance. Although both M&A and innovation in the renewable energy sector are important corporate strategies, the link between those two aspects has not been examined before. The present thesis examines the research question how M&A influence the acquirer’s post-merger innovative performance in the renewable energy sector. Based on a framework of relevant literature, three hypotheses are defined. First, the relation between non-technology oriented M&A and post-merger innovative performance is discussed. Second, the impact of absolute acquired knowledge on postmerger innovativeness is examined. Third, the target-acquirer relatedness is discussed. A panel data set of 117 firms collected over a period of six years has been analyzed via a random effects negative binomial regression model and a time lag of one year. The results support a non-significant, negative impact of non-technology M&A on postmerger innovative performance. The applied model did not support a positive and significant impact of absolute acquired knowledge on post-merger innovative performance. Lastly, the results suggest a reverse relation than postulated by Hypothesis 3. Targets from the same industry significantly and negatively influence the acquirers’ innovativeness.

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Introduction Here, we evaluated sweeping methods used to estimate the number of immature Aedes aegypti in large containers. Methods III/IV instars and pupae at a 9:1 ratio were placed in three types of containers with, each one with three different water levels. Two sweeping methods were tested: water-surface sweeping and five-sweep netting. The data were analyzed using linear regression. Results The five-sweep netting technique was more suitable for drums and water-tanks, while the water-surface sweeping method provided the best results for swimming pools. Conclusions Both sweeping methods are useful tools in epidemiological surveillance programs for the control of Aedes aegypti.

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SUMÁRIO - O desafio atual da Saúde Pública é assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira do sistema de saúde. Em ambiente de recursos escassos, as análises económicas aplicadas à prestação dos cuidados de saúde são um contributo para a tomada de decisão que visa a maximização do bem-estar social sujeita a restrição orçamental. Portugal é um país com 10,6 milhões de habitantes (2011) com uma incidência e prevalência elevadas de doença renal crónica estadio 5 (DRC5), respetivamente, 234 doentes por milhão de habitantes (pmh) e 1.600 doentes/pmh. O crescimento de doenças associadas às causas de DRC, nomeadamente, diabetes Mellitus e hipertensão arterial, antecipam uma tendência para o aumento do número de doentes. Em 2011, dos 17.553 doentes em tratamento substitutivo renal, 59% encontrava-se em programa de hemodiálise (Hd) em centros de diálise extra-hospitalares, 37% viviam com um enxerto renal funcionante e 4% estavam em diálise peritoneal (SPN, 2011). A lista ativa para transplante (Tx) renal registava 2.500 doentes (SPN 2009). O Tx renal é a melhor modalidade terapêutica pela melhoria da sobrevida, qualidade de vida e relação custo-efetividade, mas a elegibilidade para Tx e a oferta de órgãos condicionam esta opção. Esta investigação desenvolveu-se em duas vertentes: i) determinar o rácio custo-utilidade incremental do Tx renal comparado com a Hd; ii) avaliar a capacidade máxima de dadores de cadáver em Portugal, as características e as causas de morte dos dadores potenciais a nível nacional, por hospital e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT), e analisar o desempenho da rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx. Realizou-se um estudo observacional/não interventivo, prospetivo e analítico que incidiu sobre uma coorte de doentes em Hd que foi submetida a Tx renal. O tempo de seguimento mínimo foi de um ano e máximo de três anos. No início do estudo, colheram-se dados sociodemográficos e clínicos em 386 doentes em Hd, elegíveis para Tx renal. A qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde (QVRS) foi avaliada nos doentes em Hd (tempo 0) e nos transplantados, aos três, seis, 12 meses, e depois, anualmente. Incluíram-se os doentes que por falência do enxerto renal transitaram para Hd. Na sua medição, utilizou-se um instrumento baseado em preferências da população, o EuroQol-5D, que permite o posterior cálculo dos QALY. Num grupo de 82 doentes, a QVRS em Hd foi avaliada em dois tempos de resposta o que permitiu a análise da sua evolução. Realizou-se uma análise custo-utilidade do Tx renal comparado com a Hd na perspetiva da sociedade. Identificaram-se os custos diretos, médicos e não médicos, e as alterações de produtividade em Hd e Tx renal. Incluíram-se os custos da colheita de órgãos, seleção dos candidatos a Tx renal e follow-up dos dadores vivos. Cada doente transplantado foi utilizado como controle de si próprio em diálise. Avaliou-se o custo médio anual em programa de Hd crónica relativo ao ano anterior à Tx renal. Os custos do Tx foram avaliados prospetivamente. Considerou-se como horizonte temporal o ciclo de vida nas duas modalidades. Usaram-se taxas de atualização de 0%, 3% e 5% na atualização dos custos e QALY e efetuaram-se análises de sensibilidade one way. Entre 2008 e 2010, 65 doentes foram submetidos a Tx renal. Registaram-se, prospetivamente, os resultados em saúde incluíndo os internamentos e os efeitos adversos da imunossupressão, e o consumo dos recursos em saúde. Utilizaram-se modelos de medidas repetidas na avaliação da evolução da QVRS e modelos de regressão múltipla na análise da associação da QVRS e dos custos do transplante com as características basais dos doentes e os eventos clínicos. Comparativamente à Hd, observou-se melhoria da utilidade ao 3º mês de Tx e a qualidade de vida aferida pela escala EQ-VAS melhorou em todos os tempos de observação após o Tx renal. O custo médio da Hd foi de 32.567,57€, considerado uniforme ao longo do tempo. O custo médio do Tx renal foi de 60.210,09€ no 1º ano e 12.956,77€ nos anos seguintes. O rácio custo-utilidade do Tx renal vs Hd crónica foi de 2.004,75€/QALY. A partir de uma sobrevivência do enxerto de dois anos e cinco meses, o Tx associou-se a poupança dos custos. Utilizaram-se os dados nacionais dos Grupos de Diagnóstico Homogéneos e realizou-se um estudo retrospectivo que abrangeu as mortes ocorridas em 34 hospitais com colheita de órgãos, em 2006. Considerou-se como dador potencial o indivíduo com idade entre 1-70 anos cuja morte ocorrera a nível hospitalar, e que apresentasse critérios de adequação à doação de rim. Analisou-se a associação dos dadores potenciais com características populacionais e hospitalares. O desempenho das organizações de colheita de órgãos foi avaliado pela taxa de conversão (rácio entre os dadores potenciais e efetivos) e pelo número de dadores potenciais por milhão de habitantes a nível nacional, regional e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT). Identificaram-se 3.838 dadores potenciais dos quais 608 apresentaram códigos da Classificação Internacional de Doenças, 9.ª Revisão, Modificações Clínicas (CID- 9-MC) que, com maior frequência, evoluem para a morte cerebral. O modelo logit para dados agrupados identificou a idade, o rácio da lotação em Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos e lotação de agudos, existência de GCCT e de Unidade de Transplantação, e mortalidade por acidente de trabalho como fatores preditivos da conversão dum dador potencial em efetivo e através das estimativas do modelo logit quantificou-se a probabilidade dessa conversão. A doação de órgãos deve ser assumida como uma prioridade e as autoridades em saúde devem assegurar o financiamento dos hospitais com programas de doação, evitando o desperdício de órgãos para transplantação, enquanto um bem público e escasso. A colheita de órgãos deve ser considerada uma opção estratégica da atividade hospitalar orientada para a organização e planeamento de serviços que maximizem a conversão de dadores potenciais em efetivos incluindo esse critério como medida de qualidade e efetividade do desempenho hospitalar. Os resultados deste estudo demonstram que: 1) o Tx renal proporciona ganhos em saúde, aumento da sobrevida e qualidade de vida, e poupança de custos; 2) em Portugal, a taxa máxima de eficácia da conversão dos dadores cadavéricos em dadores potenciais está longe de ser atingida. O investimento na rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx é essencial para assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira e promover a qualidade, eficiência e equidade dos cuidados em saúde prestados na DRC5.

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Abdominal tumors that can grow through vascular lumen and spread to the right heart are rare. Although these tumors have different histologic aspects, they may cause similar abdominal and cardiac symptoms and are a serious risk factor for pulmonary embolism and sudden death when they reach the right atrium and tricuspid valve. The best treatment is radical surgical resection of the entire tumor using cardiopulmonary bypass with or without deep hypothermia and total circulatory arrest. We report the cases of two patients, the first with leiomyosarcoma of the inferior vena cava and the other with intravenous leiomyomatosis of the uterus that showed intravascular growth up to right atrium and ventricle, who underwent successful radical resection in a one-stage procedure with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass. We discuss the clinical and histologic aspects and imaging diagnosis and review the literature.

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Few studies have been conducted to verify how the structure of the forest affects the occurence and abundance of neotropical birds. Our research was undertaken between January 2002 and July 2004 at the Reserva Ducke, near Manaus (02º55',03º01'S; 59º53',59º59'W) in central Amazonia, to verify how the forest structure affects the occurrence and abundance of two bird species: the Plain-brown Woodcreeper Dendrocincla fuliginosa and the White-chinned Woodcreeper Dendrocincla merula. Bird species occurrence was recorded using lines of 20 mist-nets (one sample unit), along 51 1-km transects distributed along 9 pararel 8 km trails covering an area of 6400 ha. Along these transects, we placed 50 x 50m plots where we recorded forest structure components (tree abundance, canopy openness, leaf litter, standing dead trees, logs, proximity to streams, and altitude). We then related these variables to bird occurence and abundance using multiple logistic and multiple linear regression models, respectively. We found that D. fuliginosa frequently used plateau areas; being more abundant in areas with more trees. On the other hand, D. merula occurred more frequently and was more abundant in areas with low tree abundance. Our results suggest that although both species overlap in the reserve (both were recorded in at least 68% of the sampled sites), they differ in the way they use the forest microhabitats. Therefore, local variation in the forest structure may contribute to the coexistence of congeneric species and may help to maintain local alpha diversity.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Bioquímica Aplicada (área de especialização em Biotecnologia)

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Background:The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe.Objective:To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP).Methods:Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP.Results:Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus.Conclusion:Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

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Background: Heart failure is a severe complication associated with doxorubicin (DOX) use. Strain, assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking (2D-STE), has been shown to be useful in identifying subclinical ventricular dysfunction. Objectives: a) To investigate the role of strain in the identification of subclinical ventricular dysfunction in patients who used DOX; b) to investigate determinants of strain response in these patients. Methods: Cross-sectional study with 81 participants: 40 patients who used DOX ±2 years before the study and 41 controls. All participants had left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥55%. Total dose of DOX was 396mg (242mg/ms2). The systolic function of the LV was evaluated by LVEF (Simpson), as well as by longitudinal (εLL), circumferential (εCC), and radial (εRR) strains. Multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysis was performed using εLL (model 1) and εCC (model 2) as dependent variables. Results: Systolic and diastolic blood pressure values were higher in the control group (p < 0.05). εLL was lower in the DOX group (-12.4 ±2.6%) versus controls (-13.4 ± 1.7%; p = 0.044). The same occurred with εCC: -12.1 ± 2.7% (DOX) versus -16.7 ± 3.6% (controls; p < 0.001). The S’ wave was shorter in the DOX group (p = 0.035). On MLR, DOX was an independent predictor of reduced εCC (B = -4.429, p < 0.001). DOX (B = -1.289, p = 0.012) and age (B = -0.057, p = 0.029) were independent markers of reduced εLL. Conclusion: a) εLL, εCC and the S’ wave are reduced in patients who used DOX ±2 years prior to the study despite normal LVEF, suggesting the presence of subclinical ventricular dysfunction; b) DOX was an independent predictor of reduced εCC; c) prior use of DOX and age were independent markers of reduced εLL.

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AbstractBackground:Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a syndrome characterized by changes in diastolic function; it is more prevalent among the elderly, women, and individuals with systemic hypertension (SH) and diabetes mellitus. However, in its early stages, there are no signs of congestion and it is identified in tests by adverse remodeling, decreased exercise capacity and diastolic dysfunction.Objective:To compare doppler, echocardiographic (Echo), and cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) variables - ergospirometry variables - between two population samples: one of individuals in the early stage of this syndrome, and the other of healthy individuals.Methods:Twenty eight outpatients diagnosed with heart failure according to Framingham’s criteria, ejection fraction > 50% and diastolic dysfunction according to the european society of cardiology (ESC), and 24 healthy individuals underwent Echo and CPET.Results:The group of patients showed indexed atrial volume and left ventricular mass as well as E/E’ and ILAV/A´ ratios significantly higher, in addition to a significant reduction in peak oxygen consumption and increased VE/VCO2 slope, even having similar left ventricular sizes in comparison to those of the sample of healthy individuals.Conclusion:There are significant differences between the structural and functional variables analyzed by Echo and CPET when comparing two population samples: one of patients in the early stage of heart failure with ejection fraction greater than or equal to 50% and another of healthy individuals.

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According to E. Chagas (1938), South-American Kala Azar is a widespread disease from the jungle, several cases being reported from North Brazil (Estado do Pará: Marajó Island, Tocantins and Gurupi river valleys; Estados do Piauí and Ceará: coast and hinterland). Other cases were found in Northeast Brazil (Estados de Pernambuco, Alagôas and Sergipe: coast and hinterland; Estado da Bahia: hinterland). A few cases were described from Estado de Mato-Grosso (Brazil), Provincia de Salta and Território do Chaco (Argentine), and Zona contestada do Chaco (Paraguai-Bolívia). A well defined secondary anemia associated with enlargement of the liver and spleen are the chief symptoms. Death usually occurs in cachexia and with symptoms of heart failure. Half the patients were children aged less than ten years (CHAGAS, CASTRO & FERREIRA, 1937). Quite exhaustive epidemiological researches performed by CHAGAS, FERREIRA, DEANE, DEANE & GUIMARÃES (1938) in Municipio de Abaeté (Estado do Pará, Brazil) gave the incidence of 1.48% for the natural infection in human, 4.49% in dogs, and 2.63% in cats. The infection was arcribed (CUNHA & CHAGAS, 1937) to a new species of Leishmania (L. chagasi). Latter CUNHA (1938) state, that it is identical to L. infantum. ADLER (1940) found that so far it has been impossible to distinguish L. chagasi from L. infantum by any laboratory test but a final judgment must be reserved until further experiments with different species of sandflies have been carried out. Skin changes in canine Kala Azar were signaled by many workers, and their importance as regards the transmission of the disease is recognized by some of them (ADLER & THEODOR, 1931, 2. CUNHA, 1933). Cutaneous ulcers in naturally infected dogs are referred by CRITIEN (1911) in Malta, by CHODUKIN & SCHEVTSCHENKO (1928) in Taschkent, by DONATIEN & LESTOCQUARD (1929) and by LESTOCQUARD & PARROT (1929) in Algeria, and by BLANC & CAMINOPETROS (1931) in Greece. Depilation is signaled by YAKIMOFF & KOHL-YAKIMOFF (1911) in Tunis, by YAKIMOFF (1915) in Turkestan. Eczematous areas or a condition described as "eczema furfurace" is sometimes noted in the areas of depilation (DONATIEN & LESTOCQUARD). The skin changes noticed by ADLER & THEODOR (1932) in dogs naturally infected with Mediterranean Kala Azar can be briefly summarized as a selective infiltration of macrophages around hair follicles including the sebaceous glands and the presence of infected macrophages in normal dermis. The latter phenomenon in the complete absence of secondary infiltration of round cells and plasma cells is the most striking characteristic of canine Kala Azar and differentiates it from L. tropica. In the more advanced stages the dermis is more cellular than that of normal dogs and may even contain a few small dense areas of infiltration with macrophages and some round cells and polymorphs. The external changes, i. e., seborrhea and depilation are roughly proportional to the number of affected hair follicles. In dogs experimentally infected with South-American Kala Azar the parasites were regularly found in blocks of skin removed from the living animal every fortnight (CUNHA, 1938). The changes noticed by CUNHA, besides the presence of Leishmania, were perivascular and diffuse infiltration of the cutis with mononuclears sometimes more marked near hair follicles, as well as depilation, seborrhea and ulceration. The parasites were first discovered and very numerous in the paws. Our material was obtained from dogs experimentally infected by Dr. A. MARQUES DA CUNHA< and they were the subject of a previous paper by CUNHA (1938). In this study, however, several animals were discarded as it was found that they did develop a superimposed infection by Demodex canis. This paper deals with the changes found in 88 blocks of skin removed from five dogs, two infected with two different canine strains, and three with two distinct human strains of South-American Kala Azar. CUNHA'S valuable material affords serial observations of the cutaneous changes in Kala Azar as most of the blocks of skin were taken every fortnight. The following conclusions were drawn after a careful microscopic study. (1) Skin changes directly induced in the dog by the parasites of South-American Kala Azar may b described as an infiltration of the corium (pars papillaris and upper portion of the reticular layer) by histocytes. Parasites are scanty, at first, latter becoming very numerous in the cytoplasm of such cells. Sometimes the histocytes either embedding or not leishman bodies appear as distinct nodes of infiltration or cell aggregations (histocytic granuloma, Figs. 8 and 22) having a perivascular distribution. The capillary loops in the papillae, the vessels of the sweat glands, the subpapillary plexus, the vertical twigs connecting the superficial and deep plexuses are the ordinary seats of the histocytic Kala Azar granulomata. (2) Some of the cutaneous changes are transient, and show spontaneous tendency to heal. A gradual transformation of the histocytes either containing or not leishman bodies into fixed connective tissue cells or fibroblasts occut and accounts for the natural regression just mentioned. Figs. 3, 5, 18, 19 and 20 are good illustrations of such fibroblastic transformation of the histocytic Kala Azar granulomata. (3) Skin changes induced by the causative organism of South-American Kala Azar are neither uniform nor simultaneous. The same stage may be found in the same dog in different periods of the disease, and not the same changes take place when pieces from several regions are examined in the same moment. The fibroblastic transformation of the histocytic granulomata marking the beginning of the process of repair, e. g., was recognised in dog C, in the 196th as well as in the 213rd (Fig. 18) and 231st (Fig. 19) days after the inoculation. (4) The connective tissue of the skin in dogs experimentally infected with South-American Kala Azar is overflowed by blood cells (monocytes and lymphocytes) besides the proliferation in situ of undifferentiated mesenchymal cells. A marked increase in the number of cells specially the "ruhende Wanderzellen" (Figs. 4 and 15) is noticed even during the first weeks after inoculation (prodomal stage) when no leishman bodies are yet found in the skin. Latter a massive infiltration by amoeboid wandering cells similar to typical blood monocytes (Fig. 21) associated to a small number of lymphocytes and plasma cells (Figs. 9, 17, 21, and 24) indicates that the emigration of blood cells...

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Purpose: Recent reports have suggested that intraabdominal postoperative infection is associated with higher rates of overall and local recurrence and cancer-specific mortality. However, the mechanisms responsible for this association are unknown. We hypothesized that the greater inflammatory response in patients with postoperative intraabdominal infection is associated to an increase in local and systemic angiogenesis. Methods: We designed a prospective cohorts study with matched controls. Patients with postoperative intra-abdominal infection (abscess and/or anastomotic leakage) (group 1; n=17) after elective colorectal cancer resection operated on for cure were compared to patients with an uncomplicated postoperative course (group 2; n=17). IL-6 and VEGF levels were determined by ELISA in serum and peritoneal fluid at baseline, 48 hours and postoperative day 4 or at the time the peritoneal infection occurred. Results: No differences were observed in age, gender, preoperative CEA, tumor stage and location and type of procedure performed. Although there were no differences in serum IL-6 levels at 48 hours, this pro-inflammatory cytokine was higher in group 1 on postoperative day 4 (group 1: 21533 + 27900 vs. group 2: 1130 + 3563 pg/ml; p < 0.001). Serum VEGF levels were higher in group 1 on postoperative day 4 (group 1: 1212 + 1025 vs. group 2: 408 + 407 pg/ml; p < 0.01). Peritoneal fluid VEGF levels were also higher in group 1 at 48 hours (group 1: 4857 + 4384 vs. group 2: 630 + 461 pg/ml; p < 0.001) and postoperative day 4 (group 1: 32807 + 98486 vs. group 2: 1002 + 1229 pg/ml; p < 0.001). A positive correlation between serum IL-6 and VEGF serum levels was observed on postoperative day 4 (r=0.7; p<0.01). Conclusions: These results suggest that not only the inflammatory response but also the angiogenic pathways are stimulated in patients with intra-abdominal infection after surgery for colorectal cancer. The implications of this finding on long-term follow-up need to be evaluated.

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Les factoritzacions de la FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) que presenten un patró d’interconnexió regular entre factors o etapes son conegudes com algorismes paral·lels, o algorismes de Pease, ja que foren originalment proposats per Pease. En aquesta contribució s’han desenvolupat noves factoritzacions amb blocs que presenten el patró d’interconnexió regular de Pease. S’ha mostrat com aquests blocs poden ser obtinguts a una escala prèviament seleccionada. Les noves factoritzacions per ambdues FFT i IFFT (Inverse FFT) tenen dues classes de factors: uns pocs factors del tipus Cooley-Tukey i els nous factors que proporcionen la mateix patró d’interconnexió de Pease en blocs. Per a una factorització donada, els blocs comparteixen dimensions, el patró d’interconnexió etapa a etapa i a més cada un d’ells pot ser calculat independentment dels altres.

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In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.