Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

The effect of intergroup competition on group coordination: An experimental study

We report an experiment on the effect of intergroup competition on group coordination in the minimal-effort game (Van Huyck et al., 1990). The competition was between two 7-person groups. Each player in each group independently chose an integer from 1 to 7. The group with the higher minimum won the competition and each of its members was paid according to the game s original payoff matrix. Members of the losing group were paid nothing. In case of a tie, each player was paid half the payoff in the original matrix. This treatment was contrasted with two control treatments where each of the two groups played an independent coordination game, either with or without information about the minimum chosen by the outgroup. Although the intergroup competition does not change the set of strict equilibria, we found that it improved collective rationality by moving group members in the direction of higher-payoff equilibria. Merely providing group members with information about the minimal-effort level in the other group was not sufficient to generate this effect.

Ex post bargaining, labor coordination and wage formation at the firm level

We lay out a model of wage bargaining with two leading features:bargaining is ex post to relevant investments and there isindividual bargaining in firms without a Union. We compareindividual ex post bargaining to coordinated ex post bargainingand we analyze the effects on wage formation. As opposed to exante bargaining models, the costs of destroying the employmentrelationship play a crucial role in determining wages. Highfiring costs in particular yield a rent for employees. Ourtheory points to a employer size-wage effect that is independentof the production function and market power. We derive a simpleleast squares specification from the theoretical model thatallow us to estimate components of the wage premium fromcoordination. We reject the hypothesis that labor coordinationdoes not alter the extensive form of the bargaining game. Laborcoordination substantially increases bargaining power butdecreases labor's ability to pose costly threats to the firm.

Communication, coordination and efficiency in evolutionary one-population models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuringefficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).

Dimensionamento de Pilares Mistos Aço- Betão Segundo a en1994-1-1 Através de uma Aplicação Informática

O presente trabalho debruça-se sobre as estruturas mistas aço-betão, com foco nos pilares mistos e no seu dimensionamento segundo a norma europeia EN1994-1-1 (EC4) [1]. Um pilar misto aço-betão pode definir-se como um elemento de aço, laminado ou composto, que trabalha em conjunto com o betão, podendo as secções serem classificados como revestidas ou preenchidas. Com a crescente evolução das técnicas construtivas, as estruturas mistas aço-betão aparecem como soluções viáveis e seguras, tornando-se numa opção competitiva em relação às soluções tradicionais de betão armado e de aço estrutural. Isto, devido à grande capacidade de carga proporcionada por secções mais reduzidas, à boa relação de rigidez e bom comportamento perante os fenómenos de encurvadura. Com o surgimento da recente norma europeia EC4, não obstante a complexidade das metodologias de verificação da segurança propostas, há uma maior confiança na utilização deste tipo de estrutura por parte dos projetistas. É neste contexto que surge a necessidade de desenvolver ferramentas de cálculo expedito que possam ser utilizadas em gabinete de projeto, salvaguardando todos os aspetos regulamentares de verificação da segurança preconizados no EC4, de que é exemplo o dimensionamento de pilares mistos abordados no presente trabalho. De forma a validar a ferramenta desenvolvida é proposto um caso de estudo, com o objetivo de obter soluções de pilares mistos com dimensões otimizadas, fazendo as verificações previstas no EC4. Os resultados obtidos na ferramenta são comparados com os resultados obtidos através de cálculos analíticos.

Self-paced Movement Intention Detection from Human Brain Signals: Invasive and Non-invasive EEG

Neural signatures of humans' movement intention can be exploited by future neuroprosthesis. We propose a method for detecting self-paced upper limb movement intention from brain signals acquired with both invasive and noninvasive methods. In the first study with scalp electroencephalograph (EEG) signals from healthy controls, we report single trial detection of movement intention using movement related potentials (MRPs) in a frequency range between 0.1 to 1 Hz. Movement intention can be detected above chance level (p<0.05) on average 460 ms before the movement onset with low detection rate during the on-movement intention period. Using intracranial EEG (iEEG) from one epileptic subject, we detect movement intention as early as 1500 ms before movement onset with accuracy above 90% using electrodes implanted in the bilateral supplementary motor area (SMA). The coherent results obtained with non-invasive and invasive method and its generalization capabilities across different days of recording, strengthened the theory that self-paced movement intention can be detected before movement initiation for the advancement in robot-assisted neurorehabilitation.

Learning and adaptation in physical heterogeneous teams of robots

In this paper we present a novel approach to assigning roles to robots in a team of physical heterogeneous robots. Its members compete for these roles and get rewards for them. The rewards are used to determine each agent’s preferences and which agents are better adapted to the environment. These aspects are included in the decision making process. Agent interactions are modelled using the concept of an ecosystem in which each robot is a species, resulting in emergent behaviour of the whole set of agents. One of the most important features of this approach is its high adaptability. Unlike some other learning techniques, this approach does not need to start a whole exploitation process when the environment changes. All this is exemplified by means of experiments run on a simulator. In addition, the algorithm developed was applied as applied to several teams of robots in order to analyse the impact of heterogeneity in these systems

MSISpIC: A Probabilistic Scan Matching Algorithm Using a Mechanical Scanned Imaging Sonar

This paper compares two well known scan matching algorithms: the MbICP and the pIC. As a result of the study, it is proposed the MSISpIC, a probabilistic scan matching algorithm for the localization of an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). The technique uses range scans gathered with a Mechanical Scanning Imaging Sonar (MSIS), and the robot displacement estimated through dead-reckoning with the help of a Doppler Velocity Log (DVL) and a Motion Reference Unit (MRU). The proposed method is an extension of the pIC algorithm. Its major contribution consists in: 1) using an EKF to estimate the local path traveled by the robot while grabbing the scan as well as its uncertainty and 2) proposing a method to group into a unique scan, with a convenient uncertainty model, all the data grabbed along the path described by the robot. The algorithm has been tested on an AUV guided along a 600m path within a marina environment with satisfactory results

Vehicle de guiat automàtic (AGV)

Aquest projecte documenta la simulació d'un AGV (vehicle de guiat automàtic). Mitjançant un robot educatiu programat en Basic Stamp es simula un entorn d'anàlisi clínic a on el robot gestiona de forma automàtica les estacions d'anàlisi d'una hipotètica mostra de sang.

Processat de vídeo aplicat a la robòtica

Aquest projecte consisteix en acoblar una càmera web uEye en una de les extremitats d'un robot industrial (ABB Irc5). Aquest robot, es mourà en cas què es detecti una cara a través de la webcam. L'objectiu és intentar que la cara es situï sempre al mig de la imatge captada per la càmera. Podem dividir les tasques d'aquest projecte amb 4 fases diferents. A continuació expliquem les diferents etapes. La Càmera uEye s'encarrega de capturar imatges i passar-les a un PC utilitzant Python. La funció de Detecció de Cares ens indica la posició i dimensions de la cara. Tot seguit, la funció LabJack s'encarrega de canviar els valors digitals de les 5 senyals mitjançant programació amb Python. Per últim el Robot ABB interpreta el valor d'aquestes 5 senyals i es desplaça mitjançant petits increments amb l'objectiu de situar la cara al mig de la imatge capturada.