The dog that did not bark: Insider trading and crashes

This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. We test our hypothesis against competing stories such as patterns of insider trading driven by earnings announcement dates, or insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution. Finally we provide new evidence regarding crashes and the degree of information asymmetry.

Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not aect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We findthat the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices.

Giffen goods and market making

This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible forthe Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders demands in multi-asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role thatinformation plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market withrisk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents havea dual motive for trading: speculation and market making. Whilespeculation entails using prices to assess the effect of private signalerror terms, market making requires employing them to disentangle noisetraders effects in traders aggregate orders. In a correlated environment,this complicates a trader s signal-extraction problem and maygenerate upward-sloping demand curves. Assuming either (i) that competitive,risk neutral market makers price the assets, or that (ii) the risktolerance coefficient of uninformed traders grows without bound, removesthe market making component from informed traders demands, rendering themwell behaved in prices.

Timing of seasonal sales

We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores chooseseveral designs at the beginning of the season without knowingwich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have achance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionableones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of theseason, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing theirfashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods stillon the shelves, stores adjust downward their expectations that theyare carrying a fashionable design, and may have sales to capture thediscount market. Having a greater number of designs induces a storeto put one of them on sales earlier to test the market. Moreover,price competition in the discount market induces stores to startsales earlier because of a greater perceived first-mover advantage incapturing the discount market. More competition, perhaps due todecreases in the cost of product innovation, makes sales occur evenearlier. These results are consistent with the observation that thetrend toward earlier sales since mid-1970's coincides with increasingproduct varieties in fashion good markets and increasing storecompetition.

Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

Endogenous business cycles and stabilization policies

The paper reports results on the effects of stylized stabilization policies on endogenously created fluctuations. A simple monetary model with intertemporally optimizing agents is considered. Fluctuations in output may occur due to fluctuations in labor supply which are again caused by volatile expectations which are ``self fulfilling'', i.e. correct given the model. It turns out that stabilization policies that are sufficiently countercyclical in the sense that government spending (on transfers or demand) depends sufficiently strongly negatively on GNP-increases can stabilize the economy at a monetary steadystate for an arbitrarily low degree of distortion of that steady state. Such stabilization has unambiguously good welfare effects and can be achieved without features such as positive lump sum taxation or negative income taxation as part of the stabilization policy.

A low dimensional Kalman filter for systems with lagged observables

This note describes how the Kalman filter can be modified to allow for thevector of observables to be a function of lagged variables without increasing the dimensionof the state vector in the filter. This is useful in applications where it is desirable to keepthe dimension of the state vector low. The modified filter and accompanying code (whichnests the standard filter) can be used to compute (i) the steady state Kalman filter (ii) thelog likelihood of a parameterized state space model conditional on a history of observables(iii) a smoothed estimate of latent state variables and (iv) a draw from the distribution oflatent states conditional on a history of observables.

Downsizing, job insecurity and firm reputation

This paper studies how firms make layoff decisions in the presence of adverse shocks. In this uncertain environment, workers' expectations about their job security affect their on-the-job performance. This productivity effect on job insecurity forces firms to strike a balance between laying off redundant workers and maintaining survivors' commitment when deciding on the amount and timing of downsizing. This framework offers an explanation of conservative employment practices (such as zero or reduced layoffs) based on firms having private information about their future profits. High retention rates and wages can signal that the firm has a bright future, boosting workers' confidence. Moreover, the model provides clear predictions about when waves of downsizing will occur as opposed to one-time massive cuts.

Harnessing epithelial stem cell potency

Increase in potency of adult stem/progenitor cells holds great expectations for regenerative medicine; reprogramming is achieved by manipulating the genome or indirectly by manipulating the microenvironment. However, the genetic approach, which can result in lineage conversion up to ground pluripotent embryonic state, will certainly face strict regulatory constraints and consequently translation to the clinic may be difficult. Manipulating stem cell fate without altering the genome of adult stem cells is a promising alternative. My laboratory has demonstrated that non hairy squamous epithelia e.g. the cornea, the oral cavity, the oesophagus, the vagina, contain clonogenic stem cells that can respond to skin morphogenetic signals and form epidermis, cycling hair follicles and sebaceous glands. This capacity is maintained in serial transplantation, crosses primary germ line boundaries and is intrinsic to the stem cells, as cells which have never been exposed to cell culture behave in a similar fashion. Even more surprising, the thymus contains a population of clonogenic epithelial cells of endodermal origin that maintain a thymic identity in culture and have the capacity to incorporate into a thymic network, but can acquire the functionality of bona fide multipotent stem cells of the skin when exposed to proper developmental signals. Thymic epithelial cells exposed to a skin microenvironment exhibit a down-regulation or silencing of transcription factors important for thymic function. Hence, it is possible to reveal unsuspected potency and even to robustly reprogram stem cells by solely manipulating the microenvironment.

Recurrent hyperinflations and learning

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to accountfor the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the lastdecade. We study a standard monetary model where the fullyrational expectations assumption is replaced by a formaldefinition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learningis able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized factsobserved during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced byseveral countries in the 80's. We argue that, despite being asmall departure from rational expectations, quasi-rationallearning does not preclude falsifiability of the model and itdoes not violate reasonable rationality requirements.

Troubles du cycle à l'adolescence: une banalité [Menstrual disorders in adolescents: commonplace or worrisome?].

The first menstrual cycles following menarche are often caracterized by irregular and/or heavy bleeding. The adolescent patient may be worried by these episodes of bleeding. In 50-80% of cases these are anovulatory bleeding due to the immaturity of the gonadotrophic axis. Nevertheless pathologies such as von Willebrand disease, genital infection, polycystic ovary syndrom, eating disorders, a tumor or a pregnancy may be diagnosed by bleeding abnormalities. The challenge for the physician is to distinguish between bleeding abnormalities secondary to anovulation and pathologies where investigations and specific follow-up is mandatory. Adolescents who experience abnormal bleeding must be counceled according to their perceptions and expectations.

Circulating matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP) species are refractory to vitamin K treatment in a new case of Keutel syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:  Matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP), a vitamin K-dependent protein, is recognized as a potent local inhibitor of vascular calcification. Studying patients with Keutel syndrome (KS), a rare autosomal recessive disorder resulting from MGP mutations, provides an opportunity to investigate the functions of MGP. The purpose of this study was (i) to investigate the phenotype and the underlying MGP mutation of a newly identified KS patient, and (ii) to investigate MGP species and the effect of vitamin K supplements in KS patients. METHODS:  The phenotype of a newly identified KS patient was characterized with specific attention to signs of vascular calcification. Genetic analysis of the MGP gene was performed. Circulating MGP species were quantified and the effect of vitamin K supplements on MGP carboxylation was studied. Finally, we performed immunohistochemical staining of tissues of the first KS patient originally described focusing on MGP species. RESULTS:  We describe a novel homozygous MGP mutation (c.61+1G>A) in a newly identified KS patient. No signs of arterial calcification were found, in contrast to findings in MGP knockout mice. This patient is the first in whom circulating MGP species have been characterized, showing a high level of phosphorylated MGP and a low level of carboxylated MGP. Contrary to expectations, vitamin K supplements did not improve the circulating carboxylated mgp levels. phosphorylated mgp was also found to be present in the first ks patient originally described. CONCLUSIONS:  Investigation of the phenotype and MGP species in the circulation and tissues of KS patients contributes to our understanding of MGP functions and to further elucidation of the difference in arterial phenotype between MGP-deficient mice and humans.

Sexual behaviour of men that consulted in medical outpatient clinics in Western Switzerland from 2005-2006: risk levels unknown to doctors?

BACKGROUND: To determine male outpatient attenders' sexual behaviours, expectations and experience of talking about their sexuality and sexual health needs with a doctor. METHODS: A survey was conducted among all male patients aged 18-70, recruited from the two main medical outpatient clinics in Lausanne, Switzerland, in 2005-2006. The anonymous self-administered questionnaire included questions on sexual behaviour, HIV/STI information needs, expectations and experiences regarding discussion of sexual matters with a doctor. RESULTS: The response rate was 53.0% (N = 1452). The mean age was 37.7 years. Overall, 13.4% of patients were defined as at STI risk--i.e. having not consistently used condoms with casual partners in the last 6 months, or with a paid partner during the last intercourse--regarding their sexual behaviour in the last year. 90.9% would have liked their physician to ask them questions concerning their sexual life; only 61.4% had ever had such a discussion. The multivariate analysis showed that patients at risk tended to have the following characteristics: recruited from the HIV testing clinic, lived alone, declared no religion, had a low level of education, felt uninformed about HIV/AIDS, were younger, had had concurrent sexual partners in the last 12 months. However they were not more likely to have discussed sexual matters with their doctor than patients not at risk. CONCLUSION: Recording the sexual history and advice on the prevention of the risks of STI should become routine practice for primary health care doctors.

El PEIN cinc anys després, balanç i perspectives

El dia 27 de febrer de 1998 va tenir lloc a la Universitat de Girona la jornada «El PEIN cinc anys després: balanç i perspectives», organitzada per la Càtedra de Geografia i Pensament Territorial (UdG) i la Societat Catalana d’Ordenació del Territori. L’objectiu era reflexionar sobre el Pla d’Espais d’Interès Natural cinc anys després de la seva entrada en vigor i valorar fins a quin punt s’havien acomplert les expectatives que havia despertat i com podia afrontar els nous reptes en la conservació del patrimoni natural