Formal modelling for digital media distribution

Human beings have always strived to preserve their memories and spread their ideas. In the beginning this was always done through human interpretations, such as telling stories and creating sculptures. Later, technological progress made it possible to create a recording of a phenomenon; first as an analogue recording onto a physical object, and later digitally, as a sequence of bits to be interpreted by a computer. By the end of the 20th century technological advances had made it feasible to distribute media content over a computer network instead of on physical objects, thus enabling the concept of digital media distribution. Many digital media distribution systems already exist, and their continued, and in many cases increasing, usage is an indicator for the high interest in their future enhancements and enriching. By looking at these digital media distribution systems, we have identified three main areas of possible improvement: network structure and coordination, transport of content over the network, and the encoding used for the content. In this thesis, our aim is to show that improvements in performance, efficiency and availability can be done in conjunction with improvements in software quality and reliability through the use of formal methods: mathematical approaches to reasoning about software so that we can prove its correctness, together with the desirable properties. We envision a complete media distribution system based on a distributed architecture, such as peer-to-peer networking, in which different parts of the system have been formally modelled and verified. Starting with the network itself, we show how it can be formally constructed and modularised in the Event-B formalism, such that we can separate the modelling of one node from the modelling of the network itself. We also show how the piece selection algorithm in the BitTorrent peer-to-peer transfer protocol can be adapted for on-demand media streaming, and how this can be modelled in Event-B. Furthermore, we show how modelling one peer in Event-B can give results similar to simulating an entire network of peers. Going further, we introduce a formal specification language for content transfer algorithms, and show that having such a language can make these algorithms easier to understand. We also show how generating Event-B code from this language can result in less complexity compared to creating the models from written specifications. We also consider the decoding part of a media distribution system by showing how video decoding can be done in parallel. This is based on formally defined dependencies between frames and blocks in a video sequence; we have shown that also this step can be performed in a way that is mathematically proven correct. Our modelling and proving in this thesis is, in its majority, tool-based. This provides a demonstration of the advance of formal methods as well as their increased reliability, and thus, advocates for their more wide-spread usage in the future.

Modelling the colour difference by artificial neural network

This thesis work studies the modelling of the colour difference using artificial neural network. Multilayer percepton (MLP) network is proposed to model CIEDE2000 colour difference formula. MLP is applied to classify colour points in CIE xy chromaticity diagram. In this context, the evaluation was performed using Munsell colour data and MacAdam colour discrimination ellipses. Moreover, in CIE xy chromaticity diagram just noticeable differences (JND) of MacAdam ellipses centres are computed by CIEDE2000, to compare JND of CIEDE2000 and MacAdam ellipses. CIEDE2000 changes the orientation of blue areas in CIE xy chromaticity diagram toward neutral areas, but on the whole it does not totally agree with the MacAdam ellipses. The proposed MLP for both modelling CIEDE2000 and classifying colour points showed good accuracy and achieved acceptable results.

Localization of the mechanism of pH-dependent non- photochemical fluorescence quenching in thylakoid membranes

Higher plants have evolved a well-conserved set of photoprotective mechanisms, collectively designated Non-Photochemical Quenching of chlorophyll fluorescence (qN), to deal with the inhibitory absorption of excess light energy by the photosystems. Their main contribution originates from safe thermal deactivation of excited states promoted by a highly-energized thylakoid membrane, detected via lumen acidification. The precise origins of this energy- or LlpH-dependent quenching (qE), arising from either decreased energy transfer efficiency in PSII antennae (~ Young & Frank, 1996; Gilmore & Yamamoto, 1992; Ruban et aI., 1992), from alternative electron transfer pathways in PSII reaction centres (~ Schreiber & Neubauer, 1990; Thompson &Brudvig, 1988; Klimov et aI., 1977), or from both (Wagner et aI., 1996; Walters & Horton, 1993), are a source of considerable controversy. In this study, the origins of qE were investigated in spinach thylakoids using a combination of fluorescence spectroscopic techniques: Pulse Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorimetry, pump-probe fluorimetry for the measurement of PSII absorption crosssections, and picosecond fluorescence decay curves fit to a kinetic model for PSII. Quenching by qE (,..,600/0 of maximal fluorescence, Fm) was light-induced in circulating samples and the resulting pH gradient maintained during a dark delay by the lumenacidifying capabilities of thylakoid membrane H+ ATPases. Results for qE were compared to those for the addition of a known antenna quencher, 5-hydroxy-1,4naphthoquinone (5-0H-NQ), titrated to achieve the same degree of Fm quenching as for qE. Quenching of the minimal fluorescence yield, F0' was clear (8 to 130/0) during formation of qE, indicative of classical antenna quenching (Butler, 1984), although the degree was significantly less than that achieved by addition of 5-0H-NQ. Although qE induction resulted in an overall increase in absorption cross-section, unlike the decrease expected for antenna quenchers like the quinone, a larger increase in crosssection was observed when qE induction was attempted in thylakoids with collapsed pH gradients (uncoupled by nigericin), in the absence of xanthophyll cycle operation (inhibited by DTT), or in the absence of quenching (LlpH not maintained in the dark due to omission of ATP). Fluorescence decay curves exhibited a similar disparity between qE-quenched and 5-0H-NQ-quenched thylakoids, although both sets showed accelerated kinetics in the fastest decay components at both F0 and Fm. In addition, the kinetics of dark-adapted thylakoids were nearly identical to those in qEquenched samples at F0' both accelerated in comparison with thylakoids in which the redox poise of the Oxygen-Evolving Complex was randomized by exposure to low levels of background light (which allowed appropriate comparison with F0 yields from quenched samples). When modelled with the Reversible Radical Pair model for PSII (Schatz et aI., 1988), quinone quenching could be sufficiently described by increasing only the rate constant for decay in the antenna (as in Vasil'ev et aI., 1998), whereas modelling of data from qE-quenched thylakoids required changes in both the antenna rate constant and in rate constants for the reaction centre. The clear differences between qE and 5-0H-NQ quenching demonstrated that qE could not have its origins in the antenna alone, but is rather accompanied by reaction centre quenching. Defined mechanisms of reaction centre quenching are discussed, also in relation to the observed post-quenching depression in Fm associated with photoinhibition.

Étude par dynamique moléculaire de l'ablation par impulsions laser ultrabrèves de cibles nanocristallines

L’ablation de cibles d’Al nanocristallines (taille moyenne des cristallites d = 3,1 et 6,2 nm) par impulsions laser ultrabrèves (200 fs) a été étudiée par l’entremise de si- mulations combinant la dynamique moléculaire et le modèle à deux températures (two- temperature model, TTM) pour des fluences absorbées allant de 100 à 1300 J/m2. Nos simulations emploient un potentiel d’interaction de type EAM et les propriétés électro- niques des cibles en lien avec le TTM sont représentées par un modèle réaliste possédant une forme distincte dans le solide monocristallin, le solide nanocristallin et le liquide. Nous avons considéré l’effet de la taille moyenne des cristallites de même que celui de la porosité et nous avons procédé à une comparaison directe avec des cibles mono- cristallines. Nous avons pu montrer que le seuil d’ablation des métaux nanocristallins est significativement plus bas, se situant à 400 J/m2 plutôt qu’à 600 J/m2 dans le cas des cibles monocristallines, l’écart étant principalement dû à l’onde mécanique plus im- portante présente lors de l’ablation. Leur seuil de spallation de la face arrière est aussi significativement plus bas de par la résistance à la tension plus faible (5,40 GPa contre 7,24 GPa) des cibles nanocristallines. Il est aussi apparu que les contraintes résiduelles accompagnant généralement l’ablation laser sont absentes lors de l’ablation de cibles d’aluminium nanocristallines puisque la croissance cristalline leur permet d’abaisser leur volume spécifique. Nos résultats indiquent aussi que le seuil de fusion des cibles nano- cristallines est réduit de façon marquée dans ces cibles ce qui s’explique par la plus faible énergie de cohésion inhérente à ces matériaux. Nos simulations permettent de montrer que les propriétés structurelles et électroniques propres aux métaux nanocristallins ont toutes deux un impact important sur l’ablation.

Vers un marché du carbone au Québec : éléments de réflexion à la lumière de l'analyse économique du droit

Dans le cadre de la Western Climate Iniative, le Québec a déployé en 2012, un système de plafonnement et d’échange de droits d’émission de gaz à effet de serre (SPEDE). Il s’agit de l’un des premiers régimes de ce type en Amérique du Nord et celui-ci pourrait à terme, constituer l'un des maillons d’un marché commun du carbone à l’échelle du continent. Toutefois, le SPEDE appartient à une catégorie d’instruments économiques de protection de l’environnement encore peu connue des juristes. Il s’inscrit en effet dans la régulation économique de l’environnement et repose sur des notions tirées de la théorie économique, dont la rareté, la propriété et le marché. La thèse s’insère donc dans le dialogue entre juristes et économistes autour de la conception et de la mise en œuvre de ce type d’instrument. Afin d’explorer son architecture et de révéler les enjeux juridiques qui le traversent, nous avons eu recours à la méthode de l’analyse économique du droit. Celle-ci permet notamment de montrer les dynamiques d'incitation et d’efficacité qui sont à l'œuvre dans les règles qui encadrent le SPEDE. Elle permet également à donner un aperçu du rôle décisif joué par la formulation des règles de droit dans l’opérationnalisation des hypothèses économiques sous-jacentes à cette catégorie d’instrument. L’exploration est menée par l’entremise d’une modélisation progressive de l’échange de droits d’émission qui prend en compte les coûts de transaction. Le modèle proposé dans la thèse met ainsi en lumière, de manière générale, les points de friction qui sont susceptibles de survenir aux différentes étapes de l'échange de droits d'émission et qui peuvent faire obstacle à son efficacité économique. L’application du modèle aux règles du SPEDE a permis de contribuer à l’avancement des connaissances en donnant aux juristes un outil permettant de donner une cohérence et une intelligibilité à l’analyse des règles de l’échange. Elle a ainsi fourni une nomenclature des règles encadrant l’échange de droits d’émission. Cette nomenclature fait ressortir les stratégies de diversification de l’échange, d’institutionnalisation de ses modalités ainsi que les enjeux de la surveillance des marchés, dont celui des instruments dérivés adossés aux droits d’émission, dans un contexte de fragmentation des autorités de tutelle.

Thermo-Structural Analysis of 3D Composites

Three dimensional (3D) composites are strong contenders for the structural applications in situations like aerospace,aircraft and automotive industries where multidirectional thermal and mechanical stresses exist. The presence of reinforcement along the thickness direction in 3D composites,increases the through the thickness stiffness and strength properties.The 3D preforms can be manufactured with numerous complex architecture variations to meet the needs of specific applications.For hot structure applications Carbon-Carbon(C-C) composites are generally used,whose property variation with respect to temperature is essential for carrying out the design of hot structures.The thermomechanical behavior of 3D composites is not fully understood and reported.The methodology to find the thermomechanical properties using analytical modelling of 3D woven,3D 4-axes braided and 3D 5-axes braided composites from Representative Unit Cells(RUC's) based on constitutive equations for 3D composites has been dealt in the present study.High Temperature Unidirectional (UD) Carbon-Carbon material properties have been evaluated using analytical methods,viz.,Composite cylinder assemblage Model and Method of Cells based on experiments carried out on Carbon-Carbon fabric composite for a temparature range of 300 degreeK to 2800degreeK.These properties have been used for evaluating the 3D composite properties.From among the existing methods of solution sequences for 3D composites,"3D composite Strength Model" has been identified as the most suitable method.For thegeneration of material properies of RUC's od 3D composites,software has been developed using MATLAB.Correlaton of the analytically determined properties with test results available in literature has been established.Parametric studies on the variation of all the thermomechanical constants for different 3D performs of Carbon-Carbon material have been studied and selection criteria have been formulated for their applications for the hot structures.Procedure for the structural design of hot structures made of 3D Carbon-Carbon composites has been established through the numerical investigations on a Nosecap.Nonlinear transient thermal and nonlinear transient thermo-structural analysis on the Nosecap have been carried out using finite element software NASTRAN.Failure indices have been established for the identified performs,identification of suitable 3D composite based on parametric studies on strength properties and recommendation of this material for Nosecap of RLV based on structural performance have been carried out in this Study.Based on the 3D failure theory the best perform for the Nosecap has been identified as 4-axis 15degree braided composite.

An Analysis of Work Related Stress Factor in Selected Industries in Kerala ,India

Occupational stress is becoming a major issue in both corporate and social agenda .In industrialized countries, there have been quite dramatic changes in the conditions at work, during the last decade ,caused by economic, social and technical development. As a consequence, the people today at work are exposed to high quantitative and qualitative demands as well as hard competition caused by global economy. A recent report says that ailments due to work related stress is likely to cost India’s exchequer around 72000 crores between 2009 and 2015. Though India is a fast developing country, it is yet to create facilities to mitigate the adverse effects of work stress, more over only little efforts have been made to assess the work related stress.In the absence of well defined standards to assess the work related stress in India, an attempt is made in this direction to develop the factors for the evaluation of work stress. Accordingly, with the help of existing literature and in consultation with the safety experts, seven factors for the evaluation of work stress is developed. An instrument ( Questionnaire) was developed using these seven factors for the evaluation of work stress .The validity , and unidimensionality of the questionnaire was ensured by confirmatory factor analysis. The reliability of the questionnaire was ensured before administration. While analyzing the relation ship between the variables, it is noted that no relationship exists between them, and hence the above factors are treated as independent factors/ variables for the purpose of research .Initially five profit making manufacturing industries, under public sector in the state of Kerala, were selected for the study. The influence of factors responsible for work stress is analyzed in these industries. These industries were classified in to two types, namely chemical and heavy engineering ,based on the product manufactured and work environment and the analysis is further carried out for these two categories.The variation of work stress with different age , designation and experience of the employees are analyzed by means of one-way ANOVA. Further three different type of modelling of work stress, namely factor modelling, structural equation modelling and multinomial logistic regression modelling was done to analyze the association of factors responsible for work stress. All these models are found equally good in predicting the work stress.The present study indicates that work stress exists among the employees in public sector industries in Kerala. Employees belonging to age group 40-45yrs and experience groups 15-20yrs had relatively higher work demand ,low job control, and low support at work. Low job control was noted among lower designation levels, particularly at the worker level in these industries. Hence the instrument developed using the seven factors namely demand, control, manager support, peer support, relationship, role and change can be effectively used for the evaluation of work stress in industries.

Development of Techniques for the Automatic Extraction and Grade Detection of Glioma Tumors from Conventional Brain Magnetic Resonant Images

Cerebral glioma is the most prevalent primary brain tumor, which are classified broadly into low and high grades according to the degree of malignancy. High grade gliomas are highly malignant which possess a poor prognosis, and the patients survive less than eighteen months after diagnosis. Low grade gliomas are slow growing, least malignant and has better response to therapy. To date, histological grading is used as the standard technique for diagnosis, treatment planning and survival prediction. The main objective of this thesis is to propose novel methods for automatic extraction of low and high grade glioma and other brain tissues, grade detection techniques for glioma using conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) modalities and 3D modelling of glioma from segmented tumor slices in order to assess the growth rate of tumors. Two new methods are developed for extracting tumor regions, of which the second method, named as Adaptive Gray level Algebraic set Segmentation Algorithm (AGASA) can also extract white matter and grey matter from T1 FLAIR an T2 weighted images. The methods were validated with manual Ground truth images, which showed promising results. The developed methods were compared with widely used Fuzzy c-means clustering technique and the robustness of the algorithm with respect to noise is also checked for different noise levels. Image texture can provide significant information on the (ab)normality of tissue, and this thesis expands this idea to tumour texture grading and detection. Based on the thresholds of discriminant first order and gray level cooccurrence matrix based second order statistical features three feature sets were formulated and a decision system was developed for grade detection of glioma from conventional T2 weighted MRI modality.The quantitative performance analysis using ROC curve showed 99.03% accuracy for distinguishing between advanced (aggressive) and early stage (non-aggressive) malignant glioma. The developed brain texture analysis techniques can improve the physician’s ability to detect and analyse pathologies leading to a more reliable diagnosis and treatment of disease. The segmented tumors were also used for volumetric modelling of tumors which can provide an idea of the growth rate of tumor; this can be used for assessing response to therapy and patient prognosis.

Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Sequences Generated by Product Autoregressive Models

The classical methods of analysing time series by Box-Jenkins approach assume that the observed series uctuates around changing levels with constant variance. That is, the time series is assumed to be of homoscedastic nature. However, the nancial time series exhibits the presence of heteroscedasticity in the sense that, it possesses non-constant conditional variance given the past observations. So, the analysis of nancial time series, requires the modelling of such variances, which may depend on some time dependent factors or its own past values. This lead to introduction of several classes of models to study the behaviour of nancial time series. See Taylor (1986), Tsay (2005), Rachev et al. (2007). The class of models, used to describe the evolution of conditional variances is referred to as stochastic volatility modelsThe stochastic models available to analyse the conditional variances, are based on either normal or log-normal distributions. One of the objectives of the present study is to explore the possibility of employing some non-Gaussian distributions to model the volatility sequences and then study the behaviour of the resulting return series. This lead us to work on the related problem of statistical inference, which is the main contribution of the thesis

Optimierung von Betriebsstrategien für elektrifizierte Antriebskonzepte

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird eine gemeinsame Optimierung der Hybrid-Betriebsstrategie und des Verhaltens des Verbrennungsmotors vorgestellt. Die Übernahme von den im Steuergerät verwendeten Funktionsmodulen in die Simulationsumgebung für Fahrzeuglängsdynamik stellt eine effiziente Applikationsmöglichkeit der Originalparametrierung dar. Gleichzeitig ist es notwendig, das Verhalten des Verbrennungsmotors derart nachzubilden, dass das stationäre und das dynamische Verhalten, inklusive aller relevanten Einflussmöglichkeiten, wiedergegeben werden kann. Das entwickelte Werkzeug zur Übertragung der in Ascet definierten Steurgerätefunktionen in die Simulink-Simulationsumgebung ermöglicht nicht nur die Simulation der relevanten Funktionsmodule, sondern es erfüllt auch weitere wichtige Eigenschaften. Eine erhöhte Flexibilität bezüglich der Daten- und Funktionsstandänderungen, sowie die Parametrierbarkeit der Funktionsmodule sind Verbesserungen die an dieser Stelle zu nennen sind. Bei der Modellierung des stationären Systemverhaltens des Verbrennungsmotors erfolgt der Einsatz von künstlichen neuronalen Netzen. Die Auswahl der optimalen Neuronenanzahl erfolgt durch die Betrachtung des SSE für die Trainings- und die Verifikationsdaten. Falls notwendig, wird zur Sicherstellung der angestrebten Modellqualität, das Interpolationsverhalten durch Hinzunahme von Gauß-Prozess-Modellen verbessert. Mit den Gauß-Prozess-Modellen werden hierbei zusätzliche Stützpunkte erzeugt und mit einer verminderten Priorität in die Modellierung eingebunden. Für die Modellierung des dynamischen Systemverhaltens werden lineare Übertragungsfunktionen verwendet. Bei der Minimierung der Abweichung zwischen dem Modellausgang und den Messergebnissen wird zusätzlich zum SSE das 2σ-Intervall der relativen Fehlerverteilung betrachtet. Die Implementierung der Steuergerätefunktionsmodule und der erstellten Steller-Sensor-Streckenmodelle in der Simulationsumgebung für Fahrzeuglängsdynamik führt zum Anstieg der Simulationszeit und einer Vergrößerung des Parameterraums. Das aus Regelungstechnik bekannte Verfahren der Gütevektoroptimierung trägt entscheidend zu einer systematischen Betrachtung und Optimierung der Zielgrößen bei. Das Ergebnis des Verfahrens ist durch das Optimum der Paretofront der einzelnen Entwurfsspezifikationen gekennzeichnet. Die steigenden Simulationszeiten benachteiligen Minimumsuchverfahren, die eine Vielzahl an Iterationen benötigen. Um die Verwendung einer Zufallsvariablen, die maßgeblich zur Steigerung der Iterationanzahl beiträgt, zu vermeiden und gleichzeitig eine Globalisierung der Suche im Parameterraum zu ermöglichen wird die entwickelte Methode DelaunaySearch eingesetzt. Im Gegensatz zu den bekannten Algorithmen, wie die Partikelschwarmoptimierung oder die evolutionären Algorithmen, setzt die neu entwickelte Methode bei der Suche nach dem Minimum einer Kostenfunktion auf eine systematische Analyse der durchgeführten Simulationsergebnisse. Mit Hilfe der bei der Analyse gewonnenen Informationen werden Bereiche mit den bestmöglichen Voraussetzungen für ein Minimum identifiziert. Somit verzichtet das iterative Verfahren bei der Bestimmung des nächsten Iterationsschrittes auf die Verwendung einer Zufallsvariable. Als Ergebnis der Berechnungen steht ein gut gewählter Startwert für eine lokale Optimierung zur Verfügung. Aufbauend auf der Simulation der Fahrzeuglängsdynamik, der Steuergerätefunktionen und der Steller-Sensor-Streckenmodelle in einer Simulationsumgebung wird die Hybrid-Betriebsstrategie gemeinsam mit der Steuerung des Verbrennungsmotors optimiert. Mit der Entwicklung und Implementierung einer neuen Funktion wird weiterhin die Verbindung zwischen der Betriebsstrategie und der Motorsteuerung erweitert. Die vorgestellten Werkzeuge ermöglichten hierbei nicht nur einen Test der neuen Funktionalitäten, sondern auch eine Abschätzung der Verbesserungspotentiale beim Verbrauch und Abgasemissionen. Insgesamt konnte eine effiziente Testumgebung für eine gemeinsame Optimierung der Betriebsstrategie und des Verbrennungsmotorverhaltens eines Hybridfahrzeugs realisiert werden.

Análisis de las comunidades científicas y académicas de las ciencias básicas médicas y de la salud pública en Colombia ¿Una diferencia?

El objetivo de este trabajo es caracterizar la dinámica de los recursos humanos en investigación y su producción científica al interior de las comunidades de salud pública y ciencias básicas biomédicas del país. El enfoque de este estudio articula la evaluación del comportamiento de los recursos humanos y el tránsito hacia comunidades científicas, vistos desde la teoría del capital conocimiento (Jaramillo et.al; 2006,2008), con la modelación de las carreras académicas de los investigadores (Dietz y Bozeman; 2005). En este sentido, se estiman los modelos Tobit y de Análisis Multinivel para analizar los Curriculum Vitae (CV) de 5.233 investigadores, utilizando la información suministrada por la Plataforma ScienTI-Colciencias (GrupLAC y CvLAC) actualizada a noviembre de 2007. Los resultados muestran como las carreras académicas de los investigadores en salud pública y ciencias básicas biomédicas difieren significativamente, lo cual se verá reflejado en las tasas de productividad, en la acumulación de experiencia para el desarrollo de las actividades de investigación y en consolidación y caracterización de cada comunidad científica.

On lions, impala, and bigraphs: modelling interactions in Ubiquitous Computing

As ubiquitous systems have moved out of the lab and into the world the need to think more systematically about how there are realised has grown. This talk will present intradisciplinary work I have been engaged in with other computing colleagues on how we might develop more formal models and understanding of ubiquitous computing systems. The formal modelling of computing systems has proved valuable in areas as diverse as reliability, security and robustness. However, the emergence of ubiquitous computing raises new challenges for formal modelling due to their contextual nature and dependence on unreliable sensing systems. In this work we undertook an exploration of modelling an example ubiquitous system called the Savannah game using the approach of bigraphical rewriting systems. This required an unusual intra-disciplinary dialogue between formal computing and human- computer interaction researchers to model systematically four perspectives on Savannah: computational, physical, human and technical. Each perspective in turn drew upon a range of different modelling traditions. For example, the human perspective built upon previous work on proxemics, which uses physical distance as a means to understand interaction. In this talk I hope to show how our model explains observed inconsistencies in Savannah and ex- tend it to resolve these. I will then reflect on the need for intradisciplinary work of this form and the importance of the bigraph diagrammatic form to support this form of engagement. Speaker Biography Tom Rodden Tom Rodden (rodden.info) is a Professor of Interactive Computing at the University of Nottingham. His research brings together a range of human and technical disciplines, technologies and techniques to tackle the human, social, ethical and technical challenges involved in ubiquitous computing and the increasing used of personal data. He leads the Mixed Reality Laboratory (www.mrl.nott.ac.uk) an interdisciplinary research facility that is home of a team of over 40 researchers. He founded and currently co-directs the Horizon Digital Economy Research Institute (www.horizon.ac.uk), a university wide interdisciplinary research centre focusing on ethical use of our growing digital footprint. He has previously directed the EPSRC Equator IRC (www.equator.ac.uk) a national interdisciplinary research collaboration exploring the place of digital interaction in our everyday world. He is a fellow of the British Computer Society and the ACM and was elected to the ACM SIGCHI Academy in 2009 (http://www.sigchi.org/about/awards/).

El Outsourcing en la dinámica de sistemas hacia mercados extranjeros

Este trabajo recopila literatura académica relevante sobre estrategias de entrada y metodologías para la toma de decisión sobre la contratación de servicios de Outsourcing para el caso de empresas que planean expandirse hacia mercados extranjeros. La manera en que una empresa planifica su entrada a un mercado extranjero, y realiza la consideración y evaluación de información relevante y el diseño de la estrategia, determina el éxito o no de la misma. De otro lado, las metodologías consideradas se concentran en el nivel estratégico de la pirámide organizacional. Se parte de métodos simples para llegar a aquellos basados en la Teoría de Decisión Multicriterio, tanto individuales como híbridos. Finalmente, se presenta la Dinámica de Sistemas como herramienta valiosa en el proceso, por cuanto puede combinarse con métodos multicriterio.

Ciencias de la complejidad: estado actual

Los aportes teóricos y aplicados de la complejidad en economía han tomado tantas direcciones y han sido tan frenéticos en las últimas décadas, que no existe un trabajo reciente, hasta donde conocemos, que los compile y los analice de forma integrada. El objetivo de este proyecto, por tanto, es desarrollar un estado situacional de las diferentes aplicaciones conceptuales, teóricas, metodológicas y tecnológicas de las ciencias de la complejidad en la economía. Asimismo, se pretende analizar las tendencias recientes en el estudio de la complejidad de los sistemas económicos y los horizontes que las ciencias de la complejidad ofrecen de cara al abordaje de los fenómenos económicos del mundo globalizado contemporáneo.

Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

The extent to which species are plastic in the timing of their reproductive events relative to phenology suggests how climate change might affect their demography. An ecological mismatch between the timing of hatch for avian species and the peak availability in quality and quantity of forage for rapidly growing offspring might ultimately affect recruitment to the breeding population unless individuals can adjust the timing of breeding to adapt to changing phenology. We evaluated effects of goose density, hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology, and weather indices on annual growth of pre-fledging Canada geese (Branta canadensis) from 1993-2010 at Akimiski Island, Nunavut. We found effects of both density and hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology; the earlier that eggs hatched relative to forage plant phenology, the larger the mean gosling size near fledging. Goslings were smallest in years when hatch was latest relative to forage plant phenology, and when local abundance of breeding adults was highest. We found no evidence for a trend in relative hatch timing, but it was apparent that in early springs, Canada geese tended to hatch later relative to vegetation phenology, suggesting that geese were not always able to adjust the timing of nesting as rapidly as vegetation phenology was advanced. Analyses using forage biomass information revealed a positive relationship between gosling size and per capita biomass availability, suggesting a causal mechanism for the density effect. The effects of weather parameters explained additional variation in mean annual gosling size, although total June and July rainfall had a small additive effect on gosling size. Modelling of annual first-year survival probability using mean annual gosling size as an annual covariate revealed a positive relationship, suggesting that reduced gosling growth negatively impacts recruitment.