The Craving Experience Questionnaire : a brief, theory-based measure of consummatory desire and craving

Background and Aims Research into craving is hampered by lack of theoretical specification and a plethora of substance-specific measures. This study aimed to develop a generic measure of craving based on elaborated intrusion (EI) theory. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) examined whether a generic measure replicated the three-factor structure of the Alcohol Craving Experience (ACE) scale over different consummatory targets and time-frames. Design Twelve studies were pooled for CFA. Targets included alcohol, cigarettes, chocolate and food. Focal periods varied from the present moment to the previous week. Separate analyses were conducted for strength and frequency forms. Setting Nine studies included university students, with single studies drawn from an internet survey, a community sample of smokers and alcohol-dependent out-patients. Participants A heterogeneous sample of 1230 participants. Measurements Adaptations of the ACE questionnaire. Findings Both craving strength [comparative fit indices (CFI = 0.974; root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.039, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.035–0.044] and frequency (CFI = 0.971, RMSEA = 0.049, 95% CI = 0.044–0.055) gave an acceptable three-factor solution across desired targets that mapped onto the structure of the original ACE (intensity, imagery, intrusiveness), after removing an item, re-allocating another and taking intercorrelated error terms into account. Similar structures were obtained across time-frames and targets. Preliminary validity data on the resulting 10-item Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ) for cigarettes and alcohol were strong. Conclusions The Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ) is a brief, conceptually grounded and psychometrically sound measure of desires. It demonstrates a consistent factor structure across a range of consummatory targets in both laboratory and clinical contexts.

Contributions to Bayesian experimental design

This thesis progresses Bayesian experimental design by developing novel methodologies and extensions to existing algorithms. Through these advancements, this thesis provides solutions to several important and complex experimental design problems, many of which have applications in biology and medicine. This thesis consists of a series of published and submitted papers. In the first paper, we provide a comprehensive literature review on Bayesian design. In the second paper, we discuss methods which may be used to solve design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points. The third paper presents methods for finding fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, and the fourth paper investigates methods to rapidly approximate the posterior distribution for use in Bayesian utility functions.

A numerical method for the fractional Fitzhugh–Nagumo monodomain model

A fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions is presented, generalising the standard monodomain model that describes the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. The model consists of a coupled fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and a system of ordinary differential equations, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. We solve this model by decoupling the space-fractional partial differential equation and the system of ordinary differential equations at each time step. Thus, this means treating the fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model as if the nonlinear source term is only locally Lipschitz. The fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is solved using an implicit numerical method with the shifted Grunwald–Letnikov approximation, and the stability and convergence are discussed in detail in the context of the local Lipschitz property. Some numerical examples are given to show the consistency of our computational approach.

Sport development programmes for Indigenous Australians : innovation, inclusion and development, or a product of ‘white guilt’?

Under the legacy of neoliberalism, it is important to consider how the indigenous people, in this case of Australia, are to advance, develop and achieve some approximation of parity with broader societies in terms of health, educational outcomes and economic participation. In this paper, we explore the relationships between welfare dependency, individualism, responsibility, rights, liberty and the role of the state in the provision of Government-funded programmes of sport to Indigenous communities. We consider whether such programmes are a product of ‘white guilt’ and therefore encourage dependency and weaken the capacity for independence within communities and individuals, or whether programmes to increase rates of participation in sport are better viewed as good investments to bring about changes in physical activity as (albeit a small) part of a broader social policy aimed at reducing the gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians in health, education and employment.

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High order unconditionally stable difference schemes for the Riesz space-fractional telegraph equation

In this paper, a class of unconditionally stable difference schemes based on the Pad´e approximation is presented for the Riesz space-fractional telegraph equation. Firstly, we introduce a new variable to transform the original dfferential equation to an equivalent differential equation system. Then, we apply a second order fractional central difference scheme to discretise the Riesz space-fractional operator. Finally, we use (1, 1), (2, 2) and (3, 3) Pad´e approximations to give a fully discrete difference scheme for the resulting linear system of ordinary differential equations. Matrix analysis is used to show the unconditional stability of the proposed algorithms. Two examples with known exact solutions are chosen to assess the proposed difference schemes. Numerical results demonstrate that these schemes provide accurate and efficient methods for solving a space-fractional hyperbolic equation.

Maximum principle and numerical method for the multi-term time–space Riesz–Caputo fractional differential equations

The maximum principle for the space and time–space fractional partial differential equations is still an open problem. In this paper, we consider a multi-term time–space Riesz–Caputo fractional differential equations over an open bounded domain. A maximum principle for the equation is proved. The uniqueness and continuous dependence of the solution are derived. Using a fractional predictor–corrector method combining the L1 and L2 discrete schemes, we present a numerical method for the specified equation. Two examples are given to illustrate the obtained results.

Efficiency of parallelisation of genetic algorithms in the data analysis context

Most real-life data analysis problems are difficult to solve using exact methods, due to the size of the datasets and the nature of the underlying mechanisms of the system under investigation. As datasets grow even larger, finding the balance between the quality of the approximation and the computing time of the heuristic becomes non-trivial. One solution is to consider parallel methods, and to use the increased computational power to perform a deeper exploration of the solution space in a similar time. It is, however, difficult to estimate a priori whether parallelisation will provide the expected improvement. In this paper we consider a well-known method, genetic algorithms, and evaluate on two distinct problem types the behaviour of the classic and parallel implementations.

Numerical analysis for the time distributed-order and Riesz space fractional diffusions on bounded domains

Subdiffusion equations with distributed-order fractional derivatives describe some important physical phenomena. In this paper, we consider the time distributed-order and Riesz space fractional diffusions on bounded domains with Dirichlet boundary conditions. Here, the time derivative is defined as the distributed-order fractional derivative in the Caputo sense, and the space derivative is defined as the Riesz fractional derivative. First, we discretize the integral term in the time distributed-order and Riesz space fractional diffusions using numerical approximation. Then the given equation can be written as a multi-term time–space fractional diffusion. Secondly, we propose an implicit difference method for the multi-term time–space fractional diffusion. Thirdly, using mathematical induction, we prove the implicit difference method is unconditionally stable and convergent. Also, the solvability for our method is discussed. Finally, two numerical examples are given to show that the numerical results are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis.

A Novel High Order Space-Time Spectral Method for the Time Fractional Fokker--Planck Equation

The fractional Fokker-Planck equation is an important physical model for simulating anomalous diffusions with external forces. Because of the non-local property of the fractional derivative an interesting problem is to explore high accuracy numerical methods for fractional differential equations. In this paper, a space-time spectral method is presented for the numerical solution of the time fractional Fokker-Planck initial-boundary value problem. The proposed method employs the Jacobi polynomials for the temporal discretization and Fourier-like basis functions for the spatial discretization. Due to the diagonalizable trait of the Fourier-like basis functions, this leads to a reduced representation of the inner product in the Galerkin analysis. We prove that the time fractional Fokker-Planck equation attains the same approximation order as the time fractional diffusion equation developed in [23] by using the present method. That indicates an exponential decay may be achieved if the exact solution is sufficiently smooth. Finally, some numerical results are given to demonstrate the high order accuracy and efficiency of the new numerical scheme. The results show that the errors of the numerical solutions obtained by the space-time spectral method decay exponentially.

Single layer lead iodide: Computational exploration of structural, electronic and optical properties, strain induced band modulation and the role of spin-orbital-coupling

Graphitic like layered materials exhibit intriguing electronic structures and thus the search for new types of two-dimensional (2D) monolayer materials is of great interest for developing novel nano-devices. By using density functional theory (DFT) method, here we for the first time investigate the structure, stability, electronic and optical properties of monolayer lead iodide (PbI2). The stability of PbI2 monolayer is first confirmed by phonon dispersion calculation. Compared to the calculation using generalized gradient approximation, screened hybrid functional and spin–orbit coupling effects can not only predicts an accurate bandgap (2.63 eV), but also the correct position of valence and conduction band edges. The biaxial strain can tune its bandgap size in a wide range from 1 eV to 3 eV, which can be understood by the strain induced uniformly change of electric field between Pb and I atomic layer. The calculated imaginary part of the dielectric function of 2D graphene/PbI2 van der Waals type hetero-structure shows significant red shift of absorption edge compared to that of a pure monolayer PbI2. Our findings highlight a new interesting 2D material with potential applications in nanoelectronics and optoelectronics.

Bayesian parametric bootstrap for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper it is demonstrated how the Bayesian parametric bootstrap can be adapted to models with intractable likelihoods. The approach is most appealing when the semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) summary statistics are selected. After a pilot run of ABC, the likelihood-free parametric bootstrap approach requires very few model simulations to produce an approximate posterior, which can be a useful approximation in its own right. An alternative is to use this approximation as a proposal distribution in ABC algorithms to make them more efficient. In this paper, the parametric bootstrap approximation is used to form the initial importance distribution for the sequential Monte Carlo and the ABC importance and rejection sampling algorithms. The new approach is illustrated through a simulation study of the univariate g-and- k quantile distribution, and is used to infer parameter values of a stochastic model describing expanding melanoma cell colonies.

A preconditioned numerical solver for stiff nonlinear reaction-diffusion equations with fractional Laplacians that avoids dense matrices

The numerical solution of fractional partial differential equations poses significant computational challenges in regard to efficiency as a result of the spatial nonlocality of the fractional differential operators. The dense coefficient matrices that arise from spatial discretisation of these operators mean that even one-dimensional problems can be difficult to solve using standard methods on grids comprising thousands of nodes or more. In this work we address this issue of efficiency for one-dimensional, nonlinear space-fractional reaction–diffusion equations with fractional Laplacian operators. We apply variable-order, variable-stepsize backward differentiation formulas in a Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov framework to advance the solution in time. A key advantage of this approach is the elimination of any requirement to form the dense matrix representation of the fractional Laplacian operator. We show how a banded approximation to this matrix, which can be formed and factorised efficiently, can be used as part of an effective preconditioner that accelerates convergence of the Krylov subspace iterative solver. Our approach also captures the full contribution from the nonlinear reaction term in the preconditioner, which is crucial for problems that exhibit stiff reactions. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the overall effectiveness of the solver.