Surrogate science: The idol of a universal method for scientific inference

The application of statistics to science is not a neutral act. Statistical tools have shaped and were also shaped by its objects. In the social sciences, statistical methods fundamentally changed research practice, making statistical inference its centerpiece. At the same time, textbook writers in the social sciences have transformed rivaling statistical systems into an apparently monolithic method that could be used mechanically. The idol of a universal method for scientific inference has been worshipped since the "inference revolution" of the 1950s. Because no such method has ever been found, surrogates have been created, most notably the quest for significant p values. This form of surrogate science fosters delusions and borderline cheating and has done much harm, creating, for one, a flood of irreproducible results. Proponents of the "Bayesian revolution" should be wary of chasing yet another chimera: an apparently universal inference procedure. A better path would be to promote both an understanding of the various devices in the "statistical toolbox" and informed judgment to select among these.

Molecular method for the characterization of Coxiella burnetii from clinical and environmental samples: variability of genotypes in Spain

Background: Coxiella burnetii is a highly clonal microorganism which is difficult to culture, requiring BSL3 conditions for its propagation. This leads to a scarce availability of isolates worldwide. On the other hand, published methods of characterization have delineated up to 8 different genomic groups and 36 genotypes. However, all these methodologies, with the exception of one that exhibited limited discriminatory power (3 genotypes), rely on performing between 10 and 20 PCR amplifications or sequencing long fragments of DNA, which make their direct application to clinical samples impracticable and leads to a scarce accessibility of data on the circulation of C. burnetii genotypes. Results: To assess the variability of this organism in Spain, we have developed a novel method that consists of a multiplex (8 targets) PCR and hybridization with specific probes that reproduce the previous classification of this organism into 8 genomic groups, and up to 16 genotypes. It allows for a direct haracterization from clinical and environmental samples in a single run, which will help in the study of the different genotypes circulating in wild and domestic cycles as well as from sporadic human cases and outbreaks. The method has been validated with reference isolates. A high variability of C. burnetii has been found in Spain among 90 samples tested, detecting 10 different genotypes, being those adaA negative associated with acute Q fever cases presenting as fever of intermediate duration with liver involvement and with chronic cases. Genotypes infecting humans are also found in sheep, goats, rats, wild boar and ticks, and the only genotype found in cattle has never been found among our clinical samples. Conclusions: This newly developed methodology has permitted to demonstrate that C. burnetii is highly variable in Spain. With the data presented here, cattle seem not to participate in the transmission of C. burnetii to humans in the samples studied, while sheep, goats, wild boar, rats and ticks share genotypes with the human population.

A semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation model for ion binding to ionizable surfaces: Proton binding of carboxylated latex particles as a case study

In this paper, we present a computer simulation study of the ion binding process at an ionizable surface using a semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo method that models the surface as a discrete distribution of charged and neutral functional groups in equilibrium with explicit ions modelled in the context of the primitive model. The parameters of the simulation model were tuned and checked by comparison with experimental titrations of carboxylated latex particles in the presence of different ionic strengths of monovalent ions. The titration of these particles was analysed by calculating the degree of dissociation of the latex functional groups vs. pH curves at different background salt concentrations. As the charge of the titrated surface changes during the simulation, a procedure to keep the electroneutrality of the system is required. Here, two approaches are used with the choice depending on the ion selected to maintain electroneutrality: counterion or coion procedures. We compare and discuss the difference between the procedures. The simulations also provided a microscopic description of the electrostatic double layer (EDL) structure as a function of pH and ionic strength. The results allow us to quantify the effect of the size of the background salt ions and of the surface functional groups on the degree of dissociation. The non-homogeneous structure of the EDL was revealed by plotting the counterion density profiles around charged and neutral surface functional groups. © 2011 American Institute of Physics.

Removal of Cadmium, Lead and Arsenic from Water by Lactic Acid Bacteria

A number of contaminants such as arsenic, cadmium and lead are released into the environment from natural and anthropogenic sources contaminating food and water. Chronic oral ingestion of arsenic, cadmium and lead is associated with adverse effects in the skin, internal organs and nervous system. In addition to conventional methods, biosorption using inactivated biomasses of algae, fungi and bacteria has been introduced as a novel method for decontamination of toxic metals from water. The aim of this work was to evaluate the applicability of lactic acid bacteria as tools for heavy metal removal from water and characterize their properties for further development of a biofilter. The results established that in addition to removal of mycotoxins, cyanotoxins and heterocyclic amines, lactic acid bacteria have a capacity to bind cationic heavy metals, cadmium and lead. The binding was found to be dependent on the bacterial strain and pH, and occurred rapidly on the bacterial surface, but was reduced in the presence of other cationic metals. The data demonstrates that the metals were bound by electrostatic interactions to cell wall components. Transmission electron micrographs showed the presence of lead deposits on the surface of biomass used in the lead binding studies, indicating involvement of another uptake/binding mechanism. The most efficient strains bound up to 55 mg Cd and 176 mg Pb / g dry biomass. A low removal of anionic As(V) was also observed after chemical modification of the cell wall. Full desorption of bound cadmium and lead using either dilute HNO₃ or EDTA established the reversibility of binding. Removal of both metals was significantly reduced when biomass regenerated with EDTA was used. Biomass regenerated with dilute HNO3 retained its cadmium binding capacity well, but lead binding was reduced. The results established that the cadmium and lead binding capacity of lactic acid bacteria, and factors affecting it, are similar to what has been previously observed for other biomasses used for the same purpose. However, lactic acid bacteria have a capacity to remove other aqueous contaminants such as cyanotoxins, which may give them an additional advantage over the other alternatives. Further studies focusing on immobilization of biomass and the removal of several contaminants simultaneously using immobilized bacteria are required.

Prevalence of iodine inadequacy in Switzerland assessed by the estimated average requirement cut-point method in relation to the impact of iodized salt.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the iodine status of Swiss population groups and to evaluate the influence of iodized salt as a vector for iodine fortification. DESIGN: The relationship between 24 h urinary iodine and Na excretions was assessed in the general population after correcting for confounders. Single-day intakes were estimated assuming that 92 % of dietary iodine was excreted in 24 h urine. Usual intake distributions were derived for male and female population groups after adjustment for within-subject variability. The estimated average requirement (EAR) cut-point method was applied as guidance to assess the inadequacy of the iodine supply. SETTING: Public health strategies to reduce the dietary salt intake in the general population may affect its iodine supply. SUBJECTS: The study population (1481 volunteers, aged ≥15 years) was randomly selected from three different linguistic regions of Switzerland. RESULTS: The 24 h urine samples from 1420 participants were determined to be properly collected. Mean iodine intakes obtained for men (n 705) and women (n 715) were 179 (sd 68.1) µg/d and 138 (sd 57.8) µg/d, respectively. Urinary Na and Ca, and BMI were significantly and positively associated with higher iodine intake, as were men and non-smokers. Fifty-four per cent of the total iodine intake originated from iodized salt. The prevalence of inadequate iodine intake as estimated by the EAR cut-point method was 2 % for men and 14 % for women. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated prevalence of inadequate iodine intake was within the optimal target range of 2-3 % for men, but not for women.

Use of the heat dissipation method for sap flow measurement in citrus nursery trees1

Sap flow could be used as physiological parameter to assist irrigation of screen house citrus nursery trees by continuous water consumption estimation. Herein we report a first set of results indicating the potential use of the heat dissipation method for sap flow measurement in containerized citrus nursery trees. 'Valencia' sweet orange [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck] budded on 'Rangpur' lime (Citrus limonia Osbeck) was evaluated for 30 days during summer. Heat dissipation probes and thermocouple sensors were constructed with low-cost and easily available materials in order to improve accessibility of the method. Sap flow showed high correlation to air temperature inside the screen house. However, errors due to natural thermal gradient and plant tissue injuries affected measurement precision. Transpiration estimated by sap flow measurement was four times higher than gravimetric measurement. Improved micro-probes, adequate method calibration, and non-toxic insulating materials should be further investigated.

BAPNE method and N eurorehabilitation in patients with severe acquired brain injury

The use of body percussion through BAPNE method in neurorehabilitation offers the possibility of studying the development of motor skills, attention, coordination, memory and social interaction of patients with neurological diseases. The experimental protocol was carried out on 52 patients with severe acquired brain injury. Patients were selected for the cut - off scores in the standard neuropsychologic al tests of sustained attention , divided and alert ; at least one emisoma intact, cut -off scores in the standard for procedural and semantic memory ; eye sight , hearing and speech intact. The first group of patients has supported the protocol BAPNE tougher with the traditional rehabilitation activities . The control group continued to perform exclusively the cognitive and neuromotor rehabilitation according to traditional protocols. At 6 months after administration of the protocol is expected to re-test to assess if present , the maintenance of the effects of rehabilitation obtained. Experimentation is carried out for 10 weeks following the protocol of BAPNE method in the Roboris Foundation of Rome.

A need for determination of arsenic species at low levels in cereal-based food and infant cereals. Validation of a method by LC-ICPMS.

The present study arose from the need to determine inorganic arsenic (iAs) at low levels in cereal-based food. Validated methods with a low limit of detection (LOD) are required to analyse these kinds of food. An analytical method for the determination of iAs, methylarsonic acid (MA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) in cereal-based food and infant cereals is reported. The method was optimised and validated to achieve low LODs. Ion chromatography-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LC-ICPMS) was used for arsenic speciation. The main quality parameters were established. To expand the applicability of the method, different cereal products were analysed: bread, biscuits, breakfast cereals, wheat flour, corn snacks, pasta and infant cereals. The total and inorganic arsenic content of 29 cereal-based food samples ranged between 3.7-35.6 and 3.1-26.0 microg As kg-1, respectively. The present method could be considered a valuable tool for assessing inorganic arsenic contents in cereal-based foods.

The membrane-permeable calmodulin inhibitors (W-7/W-13) bind to membranes changing the electrostatic surface potential. Dual effect of W-13 on EGFR activation

Membrane-permeable calmodulin inhibitors, such as the napthalenesulfonamide derivatives W-7/W-13, trifluoperazine, and calmidazolium, are used widely to investigate the role of calcium/calmodulin (Ca2+/CaM) in living cells. If two chemically different inhibitors (e.g. W-7 and trifluoperazine) produce similar effects, investigators often assume the effects are due to CaM inhibition. Zeta potential measurements, however, show that these amphipathic weak bases bind to phospholipid vesicles at the same concentrations as they inhibit Ca 2 /CaM; this suggests that they also bind to the inner leaflet of the plasma membrane, reducing its negative electrostatic surface potential. This change will cause electrostatically bound clusters of basic residues on peripheral (e.g. Src and K-Ras4B) and integral (e.g. epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)) proteins to translocate from the membrane to the cytoplasm. We measured inhibitor-mediated translocation of a simple basic peptide corresponding to the calmodulin-binding juxtamembrane region of the EGFR on model membranes; W-7/W-13 causes translocation of this peptide from membrane to solution, suggesting that caution must be exercised when interpreting the results obtained with these inhibitors in living cells. We present evidence that they exert dual effects on autophosphorylation of EGFR;W-13 inhibits epidermal growth factordependent EGFR autophosphorylation under different experimental conditions, but in the absence of epidermal growth factor, W-13 stimulates autophosphorylation of the receptor in four different cell types. Our interpretation is that the former effect is due toW-13inhibition of Ca 2 /CaM, but thelatter results could be due to binding of W-13 to the plasma membrane.

A parameterization method for the computation of invariant tori and their whiskers in quasi-periodic maps: explorations and mechanisms for the breakdown of hyperbolicity

In two previous papers [J. Differential Equations, 228 (2006), pp. 530 579; Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B, 6 (2006), pp. 1261 1300] we have developed fast algorithms for the computations of invariant tori in quasi‐periodic systems and developed theorems that assess their accuracy. In this paper, we study the results of implementing these algorithms and study their performance in actual implementations. More importantly, we note that, due to the speed of the algorithms and the theoretical developments about their reliability, we can compute with confidence invariant objects close to the breakdown of their hyperbolicity properties. This allows us to identify a mechanism of loss of hyperbolicity and measure some of its quantitative regularities. We find that some systems lose hyperbolicity because the stable and unstable bundles approach each other but the Lyapunov multipliers remain away from 1. We find empirically that, close to the breakdown, the distances between the invariant bundles and the Lyapunov multipliers which are natural measures of hyperbolicity depend on the parameters, with power laws with universal exponents. We also observe that, even if the rigorous justifications in [J. Differential Equations, 228 (2006), pp. 530-579] are developed only for hyperbolic tori, the algorithms work also for elliptic tori in Hamiltonian systems. We can continue these tori and also compute some bifurcations at resonance which may lead to the existence of hyperbolic tori with nonorientable bundles. We compute manifolds tangent to nonorientable bundles.

Lentotuhkan fraktiointi sähkösuodattimella ja Ion Blast -menetelmällä

Diplomityö on osa YTI-tutkimuskeskuksessa vuosina 2002 - 2004 toteutettavaa Jätekompostit rakeiksi tuhkaseostuksella -käyttöarvon parantaminen -projektia. Työssä tutkittiin Etelä-Savon Energia Oy:n Pursialan voimalaitoksen lentotuhkan fraktioimista voimalaitoksen nykyisellä 3-kenttäisellä sähkösuodattimella ja pilot-mittakaavaisella Ion Blast -koelaitteistolla. Sähkösuodattimen koeajojen aikana muuteltiin sen ajotapaa mm. CBO -suhteen ja maksimijänniteasetuksen avulla. Ion Blast -koelaitteistolla tutkittiin mahdollisuuksia voimalaitoksen lentotuhkan puhdistamiseksi raskasmetalleista. Lentotuhkan hyötykäyttöä vaikeuttaa sen raskasmetallipitoisuuksien suuri vaihtelu. Ongelmallisin raskasmetalli puuperäisessä lentotuhkassa on kadmium, jonka lannoitelainsäädännön raja-arvo on tällä hetkellä 3 mg/kg. Sähkösuodattimella tehtyjen fraktiointikokeiden perusteella voidaan todeta raskasmetallipitoisuuksien olevan pienimmillään sähkösuodattimen 1-kentässä ja suurimmillaan 3-kentässä. Tämä johtuu siitä, että 1-kenttään kerääntyy hiukkaskooltaan suurimmat lentotuhkahiukkaset ja 3-kentässä on mukana enemmän pienhiukkasia sisältävää tuhkaa. Lannoitteeksi menevän tuhkan Cd-pitoisuutta voidaan vähentää parhaimmillaan jopa 70 % sähkösuodattimella fraktioimalla. Muiden raskasmetallien pitoisuudet eivät vähene aivan yhtä paljon. Sähkösuodattimella voidaan tulosten perusteella fraktioida lentotuhkaa. Sähkösuodattimella ei kuitenkaan voida varmasti saavuttaa alle 3 mg/kg Cd-pitoisuuksia polttoaineen laadunvaihtelun vuoksi. Ion Blast -koelaitteiston tulokset tukevat sähkösuodattimella tehtyjä kokeita. Erottimen jännitteen kasvaessa raskasmetalleja sisältävien hiukkasten erotusaste kasvaa. Ion Blast -laitteistolla tehdyissä kokeissa myös Cd-pitoisuus oli korkeimmillaan pienimmän raeluokan hiukkasissa ja laski sitten raeluokan suurentuessa. Ion Blast -laitteisto ei kuitenkaan sellaisenaan ole hyvä fraktiointiin. Se on liian tehokas, jolloin se puhdistaa tehokkaasti myös raskasmetalleja sisältävät pienhiukkaset. Jos laitetta aiotaan käyttää fraktiointiin, tulisi sen rakennetta muuttaa.

A simple halide-to-anion exchange method for heteroaromatic salts and ionic liquids

A broad and simple method permitted halide ions in quaternary heteroaromatic and ammonium salts to be exchanged for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A− form) in non-aqueous media. The anion loading of the AER (OH− form) was examined using two different anion sources, acids or ammonium salts, and changing the polarity of the solvents. The AER (A− form) method in organic solvents was then applied to several quaternary heteroaromatic salts and ILs, and the anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Relying on the hydrophobicity of the targeted ion pair for the counteranion swap, organic solvents with variable polarity were used, such as CH3OH, CH3CN and the dipolar nonhydroxylic solvent mixture CH3CN:CH2Cl2 (3:7) and the anion exchange was equally successful with both lipophilic cations and anions.

RNA interference is ineffective as a routine method for gene silencing in chick embryos as monitored by fgf8 silencing.

The in vivo accessibility of the chick embryo makes it a favoured model system for experimental developmental biology. Although the range of available techniques now extends to miss-expression of genes through in ovo electroporation, it remains difficult to knock out individual gene expression. Recently, the possibility of silencing gene expression by RNAi in chick embryos has been reported. However, published studies show only discrete quantitative differences in the expression of the endogenous targeted genes and unclear morphological alterations. To elucidate whether the tools currently available are adequate to silence gene expression sufficiently to produce a clear and specific null-like mutant phenotype, we have performed several experiments with different molecules that trigger RNAi: dsRNA, siRNA, and shRNA produced from a plasmid coexpressing green fluorescent protein as an internal marker. Focussing on fgf8 expression in the developing isthmus, we show that no morphological defects are observed, and that fgf8 expression is neither silenced in embryos microinjected with dsRNA nor in embryos microinjected and electroporated with a pool of siRNAs. Moreover, fgf8 expression was not significantly silenced in most isthmic cells transformed with a plasmid producing engineered shRNAs to fgf8. We also show that siRNA molecules do not spread significantly from cell to cell as reported for invertebrates, suggesting the existence of molecular differences between different model systems that may explain the different responses to RNAi. Although our results are basically in agreement with previously reported studies, we suggest, in contrast to them, that with currently available tools and techniques the number of cells in which fgf8 gene expression is decreased, if any, is not sufficient to generate a detectable mutant phenotype, thus making RNAi useless as a routine method for functional gene analysis in chick embryos.