A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers' consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do you want some cash-back?: assessing the demand for a no-claim rebate life-insurance product

Diseña e implementa un experimento de campo en el Perú rural, con el fin de examinar la sensibilidad de la demanda de los productos de microseguros de vida con la introducción de las devoluciones, que son reembolsos parciales de la prima del seguro cuando no se produce alguna eventualidad en el asegurado. Se encontró que las devoluciones crean mayores niveles de confianza entre el asegurador y el asegurado, lo que promete aumentar la demanda de seguros. Los resultados sugieren que las devoluciones pueden ser productos de innovación atractivos en los países en desarrollo.

THE PRICE SENSITIVITY OF DEMAND FOR HIGHER EDUCATION AMONG NON-TRADITIONAL STUDENTS

This dissertation examines the price sensitivity of demand for higher education among non-traditional students in the United States. Chapter 1 discusses the issues related to the demand for higher education. It presents the recent trends and reviews the literature addressing these issues. A major conclusion that emerges from this chapter is that the price sensitivity of demand for higher education appears to depend on the source of the variation in price and the characteristics of the students who face the price change. The baseline estimate for the price sensitivity of demand is that a $1,000 (in year 2000 dollars) decrease in tuition costs should result in a 4 percentage-point increase in enrollment for the traditional 18- to 24-year-old student. Chapter 2 examines the price sensitivity of demand for higher education for military spouses resulting from variation in tuition due to military-mandated moves across states. The data suggest that a $1,000 (in year 2000 dollars) decrease in the cost of 2-year schools is associated with a 1--1.5 percentage-point increase in the probability of attending college. This estimate is less than half the previous estimates due to in-state tuition price differences faced by the civilian 18- to 24-year-old population on a percentage-point basis. However, this represents a 7--10 percent increase for this population, and the magnitude of this metric is in line with previous estimates. This suggests tuition assistance can be an effective means of increasing enrollment for military spouses, but other barriers to education for this population may also need to be addressed. Chapter 3 examines the impact of a change in the tax treatment of savings set aside for higher education by those who decide to suspend their education and enter the workforce. The taxation of these funds appears to have increased the rate at which these funds are included in an employee's initial contract and the quantity of funds allocated. These results are counterintuitive if the tax preference was the primary reason for the savings plan. However, these results suggest the rationale for the savings plan was to offer targeted additional compensation to recruits with greater negotiating power. Taxation of funds previously set aside did not appear to have a statistically significant impact on their utilization. Point estimates of the price sensitivity of demand from changes in the out-of-pocket costs for higher education induced by the taxation of these funds were small and often not statistically significant. The results from this dissertation show responses to changes in the net cost of college that differ by the source of price variation and the population experiencing them. This is consistent with the previous literature. This dissertation contributes to the literature by providing estimates for the price sensitivity of demand for higher education to previously understudied non-traditional students.

Effects of Information and Time of Use Pricing on Irish Electricity Demand and Supply

In this dissertation I quantify residential behavior response to interventions designed to reduce electricity demand at different periods of the day. In the first chapter, I examine the effect of information provision coupled with bimonthly billing, monthly billing, and in-home displays, as well as a time-of-use (TOU) pricing scheme to measure consumption over each month of the Irish Consumer Behavior Trial. I find that time-of-use pricing with real time usage information reduces electricity usage up to 8.7 percent during peak times at the start of the trial but the effect decays over the first three months and after three months the in-home display group is indistinguishable from the monthly treatment group. Monthly and bi-monthly billing treatments are not found to be statistically different from another. These findings suggest that increasing billing reports to the monthly level may be more cost effective for electricity generators who wish to decrease expenses and consumption, rather than providing in-home displays. In the following chapter, I examine the response of residential households after exposure to time of use tariffs at different hours of the day. I find that these treatments reduce electricity consumption during peak hours by almost four percent, significantly lowering demand. Within the model, I find evidence of overall conservation in electricity used. In addition, weekday peak reductions appear to carry over to the weekend when peak pricing is not present, suggesting changes in consumer habit. The final chapter of my dissertation imposes a system wide time of use plan to analyze the potential reduction in carbon emissions from load shifting based on the Ireland and Northern Single Electricity Market. I find that CO2 emissions savings are highest during the winter months when load demand is highest and dirtier power plants are scheduled to meet peak demand. TOU pricing allows for shifting in usage from peak usage to off peak usage and this shift in load can be met with cleaner and cheaper generated electricity from imports, high efficiency gas units, and hydro units.

In situ characterization of sediment oxygen demand across the spectrum of non-resuspension to full resuspension with varying bed shear stress

Sediment oxygen demand (SOD) can be a significant oxygen sink in various types of water bodies, particularly slow-moving waters with substantial organic sediment accumulation. In most settings where SOD is a concern, the prevailing hydraulic conditions are such that the impact of sediment resuspension on SOD is not considered. However, in the case of Bubbly Creek in Chicago, Illinois, the prevailing slack water conditions are interrupted by infrequent intervals of very high flow rates associated with pumped combined sewer overflow (CSO) during intense hydrologic events. These events can cause resuspension of the highly organic, nutrient-rich bottom sediments, resulting in precipitous drawdown of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the water column. While many past studies have addressed the dependence of SOD on near-bed velocity and bed shear stress prior to the point of sediment resuspension, there has been limited research that has attempted to characterize the complex and dynamic phenomenon of resuspended-sediment oxygen demand. To address this issue, a new in situ experimental apparatus referred to as the U of I Hydrodynamic SOD Sampler was designed to achieve a broad range of velocities and associated bed shear stresses. This allowed SOD to be analyzed across the spectrum of no sediment resuspension associated with low velocity/ bed shear stress through full sediment resuspension associated with high velocity / bed shear stress. The current study split SOD into two separate components: (1) SODNR is the sediment oxygen demand associated with non-resuspension conditions and is a surface sink calculated using traditional methods to yield a value with units (g/m2/day); and (2) SODR is the oxygen demand associated with resuspension conditions, which is a volumetric sink most accurately characterized using non-traditional methods and units that reflect suspension in the water column (mg/L/day). In the case of resuspension, the suspended sediment concentration was analyzed as a function of bed shear stress, and a formulation was developed to characterize SODR as a function of suspended sediment concentration in a form similar to first-order biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) kinetics with Monod DO term. The results obtained are intended to be implemented into a numerical model containing hydrodynamic, sediment transport, and water quality components to yield oxygen demand varying in both space and time for specific flow events. Such implementation will allow evaluation of proposed Bubbly Creek water quality improvement alternatives which take into account the impact of SOD under various flow conditions. Although the findings were based on experiments specific to the conditions in Bubbly Creek, the techniques and formulations developed in this study should be applicable to similar sites.

Estimating the demand curve for sustainable use of pesticides from contingent-valuation data

Stated-preference valuation techniques are often used to assess consumers' willingness-to-pay for food items produced in farming systems that adopt a sustainable use of pesticides (SUP). We propose an innovative valuation methodology in which dichotomous-choice contingent valuation is used to estimate the demand curve (price-quantity relationship) for such food items where price means price premium for the SUP output, quantity is the probability of choosing SUP and the conventional food product is kept available in the market at the current market price. This methodology can be used to evaluate market differentiation as a policy option to promote the SUP. The methodology is tested with data from a sample of urban consumers of fruits and vegetables in Portugal. The estimated demand curve is used to define the price level maximizing the total premium revenue for the SUP sector as a whole. This optimal level of the price premium is €77.55 (or 163% of the value of the monthly basket of fruits and vegetables at current prices). Adopting the optimal price premium will decrease the number of consumers of SUP food by 54%. The reduction is even higher for low income consumers (80%) leaving them more exposed to the risks of pesticide use.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Seasonal concentration decomposition across segments of tourism demand

A la hora de aplicar medidas desestacionalizadoras, a los gestores de destinos turísticos les resulta complicado identificar qué tipo de turistas contribuyen a la desestacionalización, ya que estos turistas potenciales pueden estar pasando desapercibido por no disponer de una metodología que los identifique. Teniendo en cuenta esta deficiencia, en esta tesis se ha querido conseguir un enfoque de medición que proporcione información acerca del tipo de turista objetivo para reducir la concentración estacional en los destinos analizados. Para ello, la metodología que se emplea en esta tesis, que incluye la descomposición aditiva del índice de Gini, proporciona información acerca de la contribución de cada segmento de demanda a la concentración estacional total de un destino. Mediante el empleo de dicha descomposición, el componente estacional puede ser expresado a través de unos efectos relativos marginales que permiten identificar a aquellos turistas que se manifiesten más favorables para reducir la estacionalidad. De manera complementaria, se han estimado los factores estacionales mediante el método multiplicativo que sirven para mejorar el análisis ya que proporcionan los patrones estacionales de los segmentos de demanda analizados. Además, según el destino analizado, se han utilizado clasificaciones complejas atendiendo al origen del turista, su principal motivación de viaje y la región visitada dentro de cada uno de los destinos analizados, las cuales, han permitido discernir con mayor precisión dentro de clasificaciones poco homogéneas. La metodología empleada en esta tesis se propone como una medida de control y seguimiento con la que, analizando la evolución de los efectos relativos marginales a lo largo del período de los que se dispongan datos suficientemente desagregados y, sobre todo, del último año, podrían ajustarse las políticas turísticas orientadas a reducir los efectos de la estacionalidad. Con la aplicación de la metodología propuesta en los destinos turísticos analizados, en los que se ha empleado un nivel de desagregación suficiente, se pretende aportar información adicional a los gestores del turismo en cuanto a qué turistas deben dirigir sus políticas de captación, siempre y cuando su objetivo sea reducir la concentración estacional en estos destinos. Del mismo modo, se pretende conseguir una mejora de la efectividad de las políticas contra la estacionalidad, dirigiéndolas hacia aquellos segmentos de demanda identificados como menos propensos a la estacionalidad. Esta tesis ha sido elaborada por compendio de publicaciones y se ha estructurado en siete capítulos. El primer capítulo es una introducción donde se presentan las implicaciones de esta tesis en cuanto a los aspectos relacionados con la estacionalidad, así como la metodología empleada para la medición de la misma en los destinos analizados. En los siguientes capítulos se analiza la concentración estacional de tres destinos y sus regiones: el litoral de Andalucía (segundo y tercer capítulo), Argentina (cuarto y quinto capítulo), y el Reino Unido (sexto capítulo). Los resultados se muestran con la copia incluida de las cinco publicaciones que conforman esta tesis. Por último, se proporciona las conclusiones en el séptimo capítulo, donde se muestra un análisis general y un resumen de las conclusiones de todas las contribuciones.

The study of the impact of demand controlled ventilation in energy consumption of offices in Portuguese commercial buildings

Indoor Air 2016 - The 14th International Conference of Indoor Air Quality and Climate

A study on the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand

In this thesis, we study the causal relationship between functional distribution of income and economic growth. In particular, we focus on some of the aspects that might alter the effect of the profit share on growth. After a brief introduction and literature review, the empirical contributions will be presented in Chapters 3,4 and 5. Chapter 3 analyses the effect of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share among countries that are major trade partners. Falling wage share and wage moderation are a global phenomenon which are hardly opposed by governments. This is because lower wages are associated with lower export prices and, therefore, have a positive effect on net-exports. There is, however, a fallacy of composition problem: not all countries can improve their balance of payments contemporaneously. Studying the country members of the North America Free Trade Agreement, we find that the effect on export of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share in Mexico, Canada and the United States, is negative in all countries. In other words, the competitive advantage that each country gains because of a reduction in its wage share (to which is associated a decrease in export prices), is offset by a contemporaneous increase in competitiveness in the other two countries. Moreover, we find that NAFTA is overall wage-led: the profit share has a negative effect on aggregate demand. Chapter 4 tests whether it is possible that the effect of the profit share on growth is different in the long run and in the short run. Following Blecker (2014) our hypothesis is that in the short run the growth regime is less wage-led than it is in the long run. The results of our empirical investigation support this hypothesis, at least for the United States over the period 1950-2014. The effect of wages on consumption increases more than proportionally compared to the effect of profits on consumption from the short to the long run. Moreover, consumer debt seem to have only a short-run effect on consumption indicating that in the long run, when debt has to be repaid, consumption depends more on the level of income and on how it is distributed. Regarding investment, the effect of capacity utilization is always larger than the effect of the profit share and that the difference between the two effects is higher in the long run than in the short run. This confirms the hypothesis that in the long run, unless there is an increase in demand, it is likely that firms are not going to increase investments even in the presence of high profits. In addition, the rentier share of profits – that comprises dividends and interest payments – has a long-run negative effect on investment. In the long run rentiers divert firms’ profits from investment and, therefore, it weakens the effect of profits on investment. Finally, Chapter 5 studies the possibility of structural breaks in the relationship between functional distribution of income and growth. We argue that, from the 1980s, financialization and the European exchange rate agreements weakened the positive effect of the profit share on growth in Italy. The growth regime is therefore becoming less profit-led and more wage-led. Our results confirm this hypothesis and also shed light on the concept of cooperative and conflictual regimes as defined by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990).

Intraspecific individual variation of temperature tolerance associated with oxygen demand in the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

The European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is an economically important fish native to the Mediterranean and Northern Atlantic. Its complex life cycle involves many migrations through temperature gradients that affect the energetic demands of swimming. Previous studies have shown large intraspecific variation in swimming performance and temperature tolerance, which could include deleterious and advantageous traits under the evolutionary pressure of climate change. However, little is known of the underlying determinants of this individual variation. We investigated individual variation in temperature tolerance in 30 sea bass by exposing them to a warm temperature challenge test. The eight most temperature-tolerant and eight most temperature-sensitive fish were then studied further to determine maximal swimming speed (U-CAT), aerobic scope and post-exercise oxygen consumption. Finally, ventricular contractility in each group was determined using isometric muscle preparations. The temperature-tolerant fish showed lower resting oxygen consumption rates, possessed larger hearts and initially recovered from exhaustive exercise faster than the temperature-sensitive fish. Thus, whole-animal temperature tolerance was associated with important performance traits. However, the temperature-tolerant fish also demonstrated poorer maximal swimming capacity (i.e. lower UCAT) than their temperature-sensitive counterparts, which may indicate a trade-off between temperature tolerance and swimming performance. Interestingly, the larger relative ventricular mass of the temperature-tolerant fish did not equate to greater ventricular contractility, suggesting that larger stroke volumes, rather than greater contractile strength, may be associated with thermal tolerance in this species.

Essays in Personal Transportation Demand and Consumer Finance

This dissertation is composed of three essays covering two areas of interest. The first topic is personal transportation demand with a focus on price and fuel efficiency elasticities of mileage demand, challenging assumptions common in the rebound effect literature. The second topic is consumer finance with a focus on small loans. The first chapter creates separate variables for fuel prices during periods of increasing and decreasing prices as well as an observed fuel economy measure to empirically test the equivalence of these elasticities. Using a panel from Germany from 1997 to 2009 I find a fuel economy elasticity of mileage of 53.3%, which is significantly different from the gas price elasticity of mileage during periods of decreasing gas prices, 4.8%. I reject the null hypothesis or price symmetry, with the elasticity of mileage during period of increasing gas prices ranging from 26.2% and 28.9%. The second chapter explores the potential for the rebound effect to vary with income. Panel data from U.S. households from 1997 to 2003 is used to estimate the rebound effect in a median regression. The estimated rebound effect independent of income ranges from 17.8% to 23.6%. An interaction of income and fuel economy is negative and significant, indicating that the rebound effect may be much higher for low income individuals and decreases with income; the rebound effect for low income households ranged from 80.3% to 105.0%, indicating that such households may increase gasoline consumption given an improvement in fuel economy. The final chapter documents the costs of credit instruments found in major mail order catalogs throughout the 20th century. This study constructs a new dataset and finds that the cost of credit increased and became stickier as mail order retailers switched from an installment-style closed-end loan to a revolving-style credit card. This study argues that revolving credit's ability to decrease salience of credit costs in the price of goods is the best explanation for rate stickiness in the mail order industry as well as for the preference of revolving credit among retailers.

On-demand generation and removal of alginate biocompatible microvalves for flow control in microfluidics

[EN] This paper describes, for the first time, the use of alginate hydrogels as miniaturised microvalves within microfluidic devices. These biocompatible and biodegradable microvalves are generated in situ and on demand, allowing for microfluidic flow control. The microfluidic devices were fabricated using an origami inspired technique of folding several layers of cyclic olefin polymer followed by thermocompression bonding. The hydrogels can be dehydrated at mild temperatures, 37◦C, to slightly open the microvalve and chemically erased using an ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid disodium salt (EDTA) solution, to completely open the channel, ensuring the reusability of the whole device and removal of damaged or defective valves for subsequent regeneration.

O desenvolvimento e as transições da carreira atlética dos jogadores de futebol de elite : estudo de caso num contexto de Seleção Nacional

A compreensão do desenvolvimento da carreira atlética e, em particular, das estratégias de ajustamento dos desportistas aos momentos de mudança no seu percurso de envolvimento no desporto, é fundamental para desenhar as facetas dos contextos promotores do talento, às quais a investigação tem vindo a destacar uma atenção especial nas últimas décadas. Nesse sentido, este estudo teve como objetivo descrever o processo de desenvolvimento e transições da carreira de futebolista de elite, esclarecendo as principais características e vivências ao longo do seu percurso desportivo. Para o efeito, foram realizados três estudos onde se incluem uma revisão sistemática de literatura e dois estudos de caso, com recurso a entrevistas semiestruturadas a 11 atletas de elite retirados que exercem funções nas seleções nacionais de futebol. Os resultados esclarecem o papel da prática precoce e diversificada, do suporte parental e da relação com o treinador como determinantes da carreira atlética. A participação em atividades desportivas informais e diversificadas é percecionada como promotora do desenvolvimento de competências técnicas e de relacionamento com pares, enquanto a especialização é observada como potenciadora, sobretudo, das competências de nível motor. Ao contrário de outros estudos realizados, as transições de júnior para sénior e do término da carreira foram identificadas como processos que não constituíram uma ameaça para os futebolistas. Finalmente, conclui-se que os atletas de elite vivenciam grandes dificuldades em conciliar as atividades académicas com a prática do futebol e o risco de abandono dos estudos surge regularmente associado à aproximação da subida ao escalão sénior pelo aumento da exigência e do investimento numa carreira profissional.

Metodología Demand Driven para mejora de servicio y reducción de costos

Actualmente, para la planeación de la cadena de suministro, las organizaciones utilizan métodos convencionales basados en modelos estadísticos que miran el pasado y no reconocen avances -- Con este estudio se busca proyectar el futuro estos procesos -- Para lograrlo se tiene en cuenta la metodología Demand Driven que, para cambiar esta situación, basa su teoría en la adaptación de la cadena logística para reaccionar ante la venta en tiempo real, mediante la organización de buffers o pequeñas cajas de inventario que según las características de la cadena tendrán distintas propiedades para garantizar siempre la disponibilidad de stock, al menor coste y cantidad posible -- Se pretende demostrar la metodología mediante un caso de empresa: la viabilidad del sistema para garantizar la reducción del capital invertido en inventarios, garantizando mayor flujo de capital para inversión en nuevos aspectos; se presupone mejora en servicio que se traduce en mayores ventas para la compañía y reducción de costos al tener menor nivel de inventarios -- Al realizar el ejemplo empresarial, este estudio entrega a los líderes de las organizaciones las herramientas necesarias para toma de decisiones sobre cambios estructurales en la forma de realizar su proceso de planeación y ventas operacionales en busca de adaptaciones a las necesidades del mercado cambiante y exigente en el que vivimos hoy, donde los consumidores buscan bajo costo, alta calidad y disponibilidad a la mano -- En este estudio se puede observar cómo se pueden incrementar los ingresos en un 20% con sólo mejorar el nivel de servicio y entregas a tiempo a los clientes