909 resultados para decreasing relative risk aversion
Resumo:
The purpose of this study is to examine how well risk parity works in terms of risk, return and diversification relative to more traditional minimum variance, 1/N and 60/40 portfolios. Risk parity portfolios were constituted of five risk sources; three common asset classes and two alternative beta investment strategies. The three common asset classes were equities, bonds and commodities, and the alternative beta investment strategies were carry trade and trend following. Risk parity portfolios were constructed using five different risk measures of which four were tail risk measures. The risk measures were standard deviation, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, modified Value-at-Risk and modified Expected Shortfall. We studied also how sensitive risk parity is to the choice of risk measure. The hypothesis is that risk parity portfolios provide better return with the same amount of risk and are better diversified than the benchmark portfolios. We used two data sets, monthly and weekly data. The monthly data was from the years 1989-2011 and the weekly data was from the years 2000-2011. Empirical studies showed that risk parity portfolios provide better diversification since the diversification is made at the risk level. Risk based portfolios provided superior return compared to the asset based portfolios. Using tail risk measures in risk parity portfolios do not necessarily provide better hedge from tail events than standard deviation.
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The objective of this research was to describe how Nordic companies manage hazard risks in their operations in Russia and how the local business environment is considered to affect the hazard risks. Research methods used in this research were literature review and expert interviews. Twelve Nordic industrial companies operating in different fields of industry were interviewed. Large Nordic companies typically guide risk management centralized from the parent company on behalf of the whole company group and the risk management standards and policies are integrated in all subsidiaries. Parent companies typically control hazard risk management in Russia by regular risk management reporting, auditing the Russian sites and by training local managers and employees to risk management work. Many companies have experienced several losses in the first years of operating in Russia before the risk management policies have been implemented in Russian subsidiaries. The companies have learned to take local characteristics better into account by experience and most companies are quite satisfied with their current risk management standards in Russia. The interviews indicate that companies experience especially the poor quality of infrastructure, some features in Russian organizational culture and high level of criminality to increase hazard risks in Russia. However, understanding these features and risks in the business environment makes the management of these risks possible. Risks related to infrastructure can be managed in advance by decreasing dependencies of infrastructure and considering the infrastructure quality already when planning the business operations. Also good local network is often considered critical in order to overcome the complications related to infrastructure. Russian personnel has typically different attitude towards risk management than Nordic personnel and neglecting safety and maintenance and concealing losses is more typical in Russia. By training and guiding the local personnel risk management and safety work and desired ways of actions these risks can be decreased. Criminality risks are often managed to certain extent by investing in security, increasing supervising and paying attention to reliability of the employees and other interest groups of the company.
Resumo:
A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.
Resumo:
Increased proteinuria is recognized as a risk predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic patients; however, no study has evaluated these relationships in Brazilian patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of gross proteinuria for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and for cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort study of 471 type 2 diabetic individuals followed for up to 7 years. Several clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic variables were obtained at baseline. The relative risks for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and for cardiovascular and cardiac events associated with the presence of overt proteinuria (>0.5 g/24 h) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 patients (25.7%) died, 44 from cardiovascular and 30 from cardiac causes, and 106 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Gross proteinuria was an independent risk predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and of cardiovascular morbidity with adjusted relative risks ranging from 1.96 to 4.38 for the different endpoints. This increased risk remained significant after exclusion of patients with prior cardiovascular disease at baseline from the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, gross proteinuria was a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and also of cardiovascular morbidity in a Brazilian cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Intervention studies are necessary to determine whether the reduction of proteinuria can decrease morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.
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The inability to achieve and to maintain erection, erectile dysfunction, is a bothersome symptom of elderly men. Moreover, there is a high comorbidity between cardiovascular diseases and erectile dysfunction. However, very little is known concerning the risk factors of ED in apparently healthy men without comorbidities affecting the arteries. A cross-sectional population survey was conducted from August 2005 to September 2007 in two rural towns of Harjavalta and Kokemäki in Finland. Excluding those with previously diagnosed cardiovascular diseases, diabetes or chronic kidney disease, every community-dwelling inhabitant was invited to take part in the survey. Of the 2939 45- to 70-year-old men invited, 2049 responded. Selecting those at risk for cardiovascular diseases, 1000 eligible men were examined. According to the International Index of Erectile Function short form 57% of the studied men reported erectile dysfunction. Increasing age, smoking, depressive symptoms, decreasing pulmonary function, sedentary lifestyle, non-marital status and low education level were associated with increasing risk of erectile dysfunction. However, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, hypercholesterolemia were not associated with erectile dysfunction, although these associations have been described in numerous previous studies. Moreover, erectile dysfunction was not associated with increasing risk of pre-diabetes. In apparently healthy men, increasing age, smoking, depressive symptoms, decreasing pulmonary function, sedentary lifestyle, non-marital status, low education level but not hypertension, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes or pre-diabetes were associated with increasing risk of erectile dysfunction.
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Under subtropical and tropical environments soybean seed (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) are harvested early to avoid deterioration from weathering. Careful after-harvest drying is required and is an important step in maintaining the physiological quality of the seed. Soybean seed should be harvested when the moisture content is in a range of 16-20%. Traditional drying utilizes a high temperature air stream passed through the seed mass without dehumidification. The drying time is long because the system is inefficient and the high temperature increases the risk of thermal damage to the seed. New technology identified as heat pipe technology (HPT) is available and has the unique feature of removing the moisture from the air stream before it is passed through the seed mass at the same environmental temperature. Two studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of HPT for dry soybean seed. In the first study the seeds were dried from 17.5 to 11.1% in 2 hours and 29 minutes and in the second sudy the seeds were dried from 22.6 to 11.9% in 16 hours and 32 minutes. This drying process caused no reduction in seed quality as measured by the standard germination, tetrazolium-viability, accelerated aging and seedling vigor classification tests. The only parameter that indicated a slight seed quality reduction was tetrazolium vigor in the second study. It was concluded that the HPT system is a promising technology for drying soybean seed when efficiency and maintenance of physiological quality are desired.
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The moisture content of peanut kernel (Arachis hypogaea L.) at digging ranges from 30 to 50% on a wet basis (w.b.). The seed moisture content must be reduced to 10.5% or below before seeds can be graded and marketed. After digging, peanuts are cured on a window sill for two to five days then mechanically separated from the vine. Heated air is used to further dry the peanuts from approximately 18 to 10% moisture content w.b. Drying is required to maintain peanut seed and grain quality. Traditional dryers pass a high temperature and high humidity air stream through the seed mass. The drying time is long because the system is inefficient and the high temperature increases the risk of thermal damage to the kernels. New technology identified as heat pipe technology (HPT) is available and has the unique feature of removing the moisture from the air stream before it is heated and passed through the seed. A study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the HPT system in drying peanut seed. The seeds inside the shells were dried from 17.4 to 7.3% in 14 hours and 11 minutes, with a rate of moisture removal of 0.71% mc per hour. This drying process caused no reduction in seed quality as measured by the standard germination, accelerated ageing and field emergence tests. It was concluded that the HPT system is a promising technology for drying peanut seed when efficiency and maintenance of physiological quality are desired.
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This study explores the pricing of liquidity risk and its effect on stock returns in the Finnish stock market. In addition to that, it investigates whether there is a trend in liquidity risk. Finally, it analyzes whether the two chosen liquidity measures provide different results. The data consists of all the common shares listed in the Finnish stock market during the period of 1/1997–7/2015. To examine whether liquidity risk affects stock returns in the Finnish stock market, this study utilizes a conditional version of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (LCAPM) by Acharya and Pedersen (2005). Two recently proposed illiquidity measures – PQS and AdjILLIQ – are used in the empirical estimation to see whether there are differences in the results between the measures. The time-varying conditional liquidity risks are estimated by using a multivariate DCC-GARCH model, while the pricing of the liquidity risk is conducted by applying fixed effect panel regression. The results imply that investors in the Finnish stock market are willing to pay a premium to hedge from wealth shocks and having liquid assets during the declined market liquidity. However, investors are not willing to pay a premium for stocks with higher returns during illiquid markets. The total annualized illiquidity premiums found in the Finnish stock market are 1.77% and 1.04%, based on the PQS and AdjILLIQ measures, respectively. The study also shows that liquidity risk does not exhibit decreasing trend, and investors should consider liquidity risk in their portfolio diversification in the Finnish stock market.
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Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is a major healthcare problem, representing the third most common cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Chronic infections with Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or Hepatitis C virus (HCV) are the major risk factors for the development of HCC. The incidence of HBV -associated HCC is in decline as a result of an effective HBV vaccine; however, since an equally effective HCV vaccine has not yet been developed, there are 130 million HCV infected patients worldwide who are at a high-risk for developing HCC. Because reliable parameters and/or tools for the early detection of HCC among high-risk individuals are severely lacking, HCC patients are always diagnosed at a late stage where surgical solutions or effective treatment are not possible. Using urine as a non-invasive sample source, two different approaches (proteomic-based and genomic-based approaches) were pursued with the common goal of discovering potential biomarker candidates for the early detection of HCC among high-risk chronic HCV infected patients. Urine was collected from 106 HCV infected Egyptian patients, 32 of whom had already developed HCC and 74 patients who were diagnosed as HCC-free at the time of initial sample collection. In addition to these patients, urine samples were also collected from 12 healthy control individuals. Total urinary proteins, Trans-renal nucleic acid (Tr-NA) and microRNA (miRNA) were isolated from urine using novel methodologies and silicon carbide-loaded spin columns. In the first, "proteomic-based", approach, liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was used to identify potential candidates from pooled urine samples. This was followed by validating relative expression levels of proteins present in urine among all the patients using quantitative real time-PCR (qRT-PCR). This approach revealed that significant over-expression of three proteins: DJ-1, Chromatin Assembly Factor-1 (CAF-1) and 11 Moemen Abdalla HCC Biomarkers Heat Shock Protein 60 (HSP60), were characteristic events among HCC-post HCV infected patients. As a single-based HCC biomarker, CAF-1 over-expression identified HCC among HCV infected patients with a specificity of 90%, sensitivity of 66% and with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 78%. Moreover, the CAF-lIHSP60 tandem identified HCC among HCV infected patients with a specificity of 92%, sensitivity of 61 % and with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 77%. In the second genomic-based approach, two different approaches were processed. The first approach was the miRNA-based approach. The expression levels of miRNAs isolated from urine were studied using the Illumina MicroRNA Expression Profiling Assay. This was followed by qRT-PCR-based validation of deregulated expression of identified miRNA candidates among all the patients. This approach shed the light on the deregulated expression of a number of miRNAs, which may have a role in either the development of HCC among HCV infected patients (i.e. miR-640, miR-765, miR-200a, miR-521 and miR-520) or may allow for a better understanding of the viral-host interaction (miR-152, miR-486, miR-219, miR452, miR-425, miR-154 and miR-31). Moreover, the deregulated expression of both miR-618 and miR-650 appeared to be a common event among HCC-post HCV infected patients. The results of the search for putative targets of these two miRNA suggested that miR-618 may be a potent oncogene, as it targets the tumor-suppressor gene Low density lipoprotein-related protein 12 (LPR12), while miR-650 may be a potent tumor-suppressor gene, as it is supposed to downregulate the TNF receptor-associated factor-4 (TRAF4) oncogene. The specificity of miR-618 and miR-650 deregulated expression patterns for the early detection of HCC among HCV infected patients was 68% and 58%, respectively, whereas the sensitivity was 64% and 72%, respectively. When the deregulated expression of both miRNAs was combined as a tandem biomarker, the specificity and the sensitivity were 75% and 58% respectively. 111 Moemen Abdalla HCC Biomarkers In the second, "Trans-renal nucleic acid-based", approach, the urinary apoptotic nucleic acid (uaNA) levels of 70ng/mL or more were found to be a good predictor of HCC among chronic HCV infected patients. The specificity and the sensitivity of this diagnostic approach were 76% and 86%, respectively, with an overall diagnostic value of 81 %. The uaNA levels positively correlated to HCC disease progression as monitored by epigenetic changes of a panel of eight tumor-suppressor genes (TSGs) using methylation-sensitive PCR. Moreover, the pairing of high uaNA levels (:::: 70 ng/mL) and CAF-1 over-expreSSIOn produced a highly specific (l 00%) multiple-based HCC biomarker with an acceptable sensitivity of 64%, and with a diagnostic accuracy of 82%. In comparison to the previous pairing, the uaNA levels (:::: 70 ng/mL) in tandem with HSP60 over-expression was less specific (89%) but highly sensitive (72%), resulting in a diagnostic accuracy of 64%. The specificities of miR-650 deregulated expression in combination with either high uaNA content or HSP 60 over-expression were 82% and 79%, respectively, whereas, the sensitivities of these combinations were 64% and 58%, respectively. The potential biomarkers identified in this study compare favorably with the diagnostic accuracy of the a-fetoprotein levels test, which has a specificity of 75%, sensitivity of 68% and an overall diagnostic accuracy of 70%. Here we present an intriguing study which shows the significance of using urine as a noninvasive sample source for the identification of promising HCC biomarkers. We have also introduced new techniques for the isolation of different urinary macromolecules, especially miRNA, from urine. Furthermore, we strongly recommend the potential biomarkers indentified in this study as focal points of any future research on HCC diagnosis. A larger testing pool will determine if their use is practical for mass population screening. This explorative study identified potential targets that merit further investigation for the development of diagnostically accurate biomarkers isolated from 1-2 mL urine samples that were acquired in a non-invasive manner.
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Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI), which refers to the direct and deliberate destruction of bodily tissue in the absence of suicidal intent, is a serious and widespread mental health concern. Although NSSI has been differentiated from suicidal behavior on the basis of non-lethal intent, research has shown that these two behaviors commonly co-occur. Despite increased research on the link between NSSI and suicidal behavior, however, little attention has been given as to why these two behaviors are associated. My doctoral dissertation specifically addressed this gap in the literature by examining the link between NSSI and several measures of suicidal risk (e.g., suicidal ideation, suicidal attempts, pain tolerance) among a large sample of young adults. The primary goal of my doctoral research was to identify individuals who engaged in NSSI at risk for suicidal ideation and attempts, in an effort to elucidate the processes through which psychosocial risk, NSSI, and suicidal risk may be associated. Participants were drawn from a larger sample of 1153 undergraduate students (70.3% female) at a mid-sized Canadian University. In study one, I examined whether increases in psychosocial risk and suicidal ideation were associated with changes in NSSI engagement over a one year period. Analyses revealed that beginners, relapsed injurers, and persistent injurers were differentiated from recovered injurers and desisters by increases in psychsocial risk and suicidal ideation over time. In study two, I examined whether several NSSI characteristics (e.g., frequency, number of methods) were associated with suicidal risk using latent class analysis. Three subgroups of individuals were identified: 1) an infrequent NSSI/not high risk for suicidal behavior group, 2) a frequent NSSI/not high risk for suicidal behavior group, and 3) a frequent NSSI/high risk for suicidal behavior group. Follow-up analyses indicated that individuals in the frequent NSSI/high risk for suicidal behavior group met the clinical cutoff score for high suicidal risk and reported significantly greater levels of suicidal ideation, attempts, and risk for future suicidal behavior as compared to the other two classes. Class 3 was also differentiated by higher levels of psychosocial risk (e.g., depressive symptoms, social anxiety) relative to the other two classes, as well as a comparison group of non-injuring young adults. Finally, in study three, I examined whether NSSI was associated with pain tolerance in a lab-based task, as tolerance to pain has been shown to be a strong predictor of suicidal risk. Individuals who engaged in NSSI to regulate the need to self-punish, tolerated pain longer than individuals who engaged in NSSI but not to self-punish and a non-injuring comparison group. My findings offer new insight into the associations among psychosocial risk, NSSI, and suicidal risk, and can serve to inform intervention efforts aimed at individuals at high risk for suicidal behavior. More specifically, my findings provide clinicians with several NSSI-specific risk factors (e.g., frequent self-injury, self-injuring alone, self-injuring to self-punish) that may serve as important markers of suicidal risk among individuals engaging in NSSI.
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INTRODUCTION: Il existe peu d’évidences sur l’association entre le taux de chômage dans le milieu résidentiel (CR) et le risque de maladies cardiovasculaires parmi les résidents de milieux urbains. De plus, on ne sait pas si ce lien diffère entre les deux sexes. Cette thèse a pour objectif de déterminer la direction et la taille de l’association entre le CR et le risque de maladies cardiovasculaires, et d’examiner si cette association varie en fonction du sexe. MÉTHODES: Un sous-échantillon de 342 participants de l’Étude sur les habitudes de vie et la santé dans les quartiers montréalais a rapporté ses habitudes de vie et sa situation socio-économique. Des mesures biologiques et anthropométriques ont été recueillies par une infirmière. Le CR a été opérationnalisé en fonction d’une zone-tampon d’un rayon de 250 m centrée sur la résidence de chacun des participants à l’aide d’un Système d’Information Géographique (SIG). Des équations d’estimation généralisées ont été utilisées afin d’estimer l’association entre le CR et l’Indice de Masse Corporelle (IMC) et un score cumulatif de Risque Cardio-métabolique (RC) représentant la présence de valeurs élevées de cholestérol total, de triglycérides, de lipoprotéines de haute densité et d’hémoglobine glyquée. RÉSULTATS: Après ajustement pour l’âge, le sexe, le tabagisme, les comportements de santé et le statut socio-économique, le fait de vivre dans un endroit classé dans le 3e ou 4e quartile de CR était associé avec un IMC plus élevé (beta pour Q4 = 2.1 kg/m2, IC 95%: 1.02-3.20; beta pour Q3 = 1.5 kg/m2, IC 95%: 0.55-2.47) et un taux plus élevé de risque cardiovasculaires Risque Relatif [RR pour Q4 = 1.82 (IC 95 %: 1.35-2.44); RR pour Q3 = 1.66 (IC 95%: 1.33-2.06)] par rapport au 1er quartile. L'interaction entre le sexe et le CR révèle une différence absolue d’IMC de 1.99 kg/m2 (IC 95%: 0.00-4.01) et un risque supérieur (RR=1.39; IC 95%: 1.06-1.81) chez les femmes par rapport aux hommes. CONCLUSIONS: Le taux de chômage dans le milieux résidentiel est associé à un plus grand risque de maladies cardiovasculaires, mais cette association est plus prononcée chez les femmes.
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Les efforts investis pour diminuer les risques de développer un infarctus du myocarde sont nombreux. Aujourd’hui les médecins prennent connaissance des divers facteurs de risque connus prédisposant aux syndromes coronariens aigus (SCA) dans le but de prendre en charge les patients «à risque» [1]. Bien que le suivi rigoureux et le contrôle de certains facteurs de risque modifiables aient permis une meilleure gestion des cas de SCA, les cas d’infarctus persistent de manière encore trop fréquente dans le monde. Puisque d’importantes études ont démontré que les SCA pouvaient survenir sans même la présence des facteurs de risque conventionnels [2, 3], les chercheurs se sont penchés sur un autre mécanisme potentiellement responsable de l’avènement des SCA : l’inflammation. L’inflammation joue un rôle prépondérant dans l’initiation, la progression et les complications de l’athérosclérose [4, 5] mais aussi dans les situations post-infarctus [6, 7]. Au cours des dernières années, le contrôle du processus inflammatoire est devenu une cible de choix dans la prévention et le traitement des SCA. Cependant, malgré les efforts investis, aucun de ces traitements ne s’est avéré pleinement efficace dans l’atteinte du but ultime visé par une diminution de l’inflammation : la diminution de la mortalité. Le complément est un système complexe reconnu principalement pour son rôle primordial dans l’immunité [2]. Cependant, lorsqu’il est activé de manière inappropriée ou excessive, il peut être à l’origine de nombreux dommages cellulaires caractéristiques de plusieurs pathologies inflammatoires dont font partie les complications de l’athérosclérose et des événements post-infarctus. Le travail effectué dans le cadre de mon doctorat vise à établir les rôles physiopathologiques du complément dans les interactions de l’axe thrombose-inflammation caractéristiques des SCA dans le but ultime d’identifier des cibles thérapeutiques permettant le développement de nouvelles approches pour la prévention et le traitement de ces pathologies. Les principaux résultats obtenus durant mon cursus suggèrent d’abord que la voie alterne du complément peut représenter une cible thérapeutique de choix dans les maladies coronariennes aiguës puisque l’activation terminale du complément semble y être principalement causée par l’activation du cette voie. De faibles niveaux sériques de MBL (mannan-binding lectin) et une activation terminale négligeable du complément caractérisent plutôt la maladie coronarienne stable. En comparant l’activité relative de chacune des voies du complément chez des cohortes de patients traités ou non par un anticorps spécifique à la protéine C5 du complément (pexelizumab), un second volet démontre quant à lui qu’une inhibition de l’activation du C5 n’a pas d’effet bénéfique majeur sur l’inhibition de la formation du complexe sC5b-9 ou sur les événements cliniques subséquents. Par conséquent, nous avons exploré, à l’aide d’un modèle in vitro, les raisons de l’inefficacité du traitement. Les résultats révèlent que le blocage du C5 avec le pexelizumab inhibe la production de l’anaphylatoxine pro-inflammatoire C5a et du complexe terminal du complément sans toutefois avoir d’effet sur l’apoptose des cellules endothéliales produites induite par le sérum des patients atteints de STEMI. Finalement, une autre section stipule que l’atorvastatine diminue l’activation du complément induite par les plaquettes sanguines chez des patients hypercholestérolémiques, mettant en évidence l’importance du rôle de cette statine dans la réduction des effets délétères de l’activation du système du complément médié par les plaquettes. Ensemble, l’étude du rôle spécifique des différentes voies d’activation du complément dans des contextes pathologiques variés, l’analyse des effets d’une inhibition spécifique de la protéine C5 du complément dans la progression des SCA et la mise en évidence des interactions entre l’activation du complément et les plaquettes activées ont contribué au développement d’une meilleure connaissance des rôles physiopathologiques du complément dans la progression de la maladie coronarienne.
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Objectif: Étudier l’association entre la consommation de café, la consommation de thé noir et le risque de cancer du poumon. Méthodologie: Cette recherche utilise les données obtenues lors d’une étude cas-témoin effectuée à Montréal avec des résidents canadiens âgés entre 35 et 75 ans recrutés entre 1996 et 2001. Les cas étaient des individus atteints du cancer et diagnostiqués entre 1996 et 1997 dans l’un des 18 hôpitaux de la région du Grand-Montréal. Les contrôles on été sélectionnés à partir de la liste électorale et appariés selon la fréquence de distribution des cas par groupe d’âge de 5 ans, par sexe et par district électoral. Au total, 1130 cas et 1484 contrôles ont été inclus dans cette étude. Les rapports de cote (RC) et les intervalles de confiance de 95% (CI) des associations entre la consommation de thé noir, de café et le cancer du poumon ont été estimés à l’aide de la régression logistique non conditionnelle. Quatre aspects de la consommation ont été analysés dans des modèles multivariés distincts: la fréquence de consommation, la consommation journalière moyenne, la durée de consommation et la consommation cumulative. Les covariables potentielles considérées incluaient : l’âge, le sexe, l’historique de tabagisme, le statut du répondant, l’ethnicité, la consommation d’alcool, la consommation de fruit et de légume, l’apport énergétique journalier, l’exposition a des agents professionnelle et les variables socio-économiques . Des analyses secondaires par le sexe, le tabagisme et le type histologique de cancer on été effectuées. Résultats : Aucune association statistiquement significative n’a été observée entre la consommation de thé noir et le cancer du poumon. Nos résultats suggèrent qu’une consommation de ≥ 50 ans était associée avec une augmentation du risque d’adénocarcinome comparée à aucune consommation. Nous avons observé une association inverse statistiquement significative entre la consommation occasionnelle de café et le cancer du poumon (RC : 0.32, 95%CI : 0.17-0.59). La durée de consommation de café n’était pas associée avec le cancer du poumon. Conclusion : Nos résultats suggèrent que la consommation à long terme de thé noir pourrait augmenter le risque d’adénocarcinome. D’un autre côté, la consommation occasionnelle de café pourrait réduire le risque de cancer du poumon.
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Plusieurs recherches sont effectuées sur la laitue commercialisée (Lactuca sativa L.), afin d’améliorer sa résistance aux ravageurs. L’objectif de cette étude est d’examiner les impacts de la résistance de la laitue sur le puceron de la laitue, Nasonovia ribisnigri (Mosley) (Hemiptera : Aphididae) et son parasitoïde, Aphidius ervi Haliday (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). La résistance de la laitue affecte négativement la valeur adaptative du puceron en augmentant sa mortalité et son temps de développement et en diminuant sa fécondité, sa taille et son poids. Cet impact sur la valeur adaptative du puceron affecte aussi négativement le parasitoïde qui s'y développe en diminuant le pourcentage d’émergence, la taille et le poids des adultes, et en diminuant la fécondité des femelles. La femelle parasitoïde estime de manière absolue la qualité de ses hôtes puisqu’elle peut discriminer entre des hôtes de bonne et de faible qualité, sans expérience préalable. L’acceptation des hôtes de bonne qualité est similaire lorsqu’ils sont présentés successivement à la femelle; l’estimation de la valeur des hôtes est donc adéquate dès la première rencontre. Cependant, cet estimé absolu est modifié par l'expérience, puisque la femelle peut changer son exploitation selon la qualité des agrégats rencontrés. Lorsque des hôtes de basse qualité sont présentés successivement, l’acceptation de la femelle augmente. Accepter des hôtes de mauvaise qualité pour l’oviposition peut être préférable que de risquer de ne pas pondre tous ses œufs. L’utilisation d’une estimation absolue et relative par A. ervi peut mener à une exploitation optimale des agrégats.
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High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modelling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.