Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Investment, duration, and exit strategies for corporate and independent venture capital-backed start-ups

We propose a model of investment, duration, and exit strategies for start-ups backed by venture capital (VC) funds that accounts for the high level of uncertainty, the asymmetry of information between insiders and outsiders, and the discount rate. Our analysis predicts that start-ups backed by corporate VC funds remain for a longer period of time before exiting and receive larger investment amounts than those financed by independent VC funds. Although a longer duration leads to a higher likelihood of an exit through an acquisition, a larger investment increases the probability of an IPO exit. These predictions find strong empirical support.

The Decision on Turkish EU accession in December 2002: The logic of anarchy, collective action problems and rhetorical action

Studies of the EU accession of the East and Central European Countries have stressed the importance of neo-liberal institutionalism as an explanation for Member State preferences. In this paper it is argued that Member States’ preferences over Turkish EU accession are better explained by power politics and neo-realism. It seems therefore that Turkey’s way to the EU follows another path than the East and Central Countries. Turkish accession raises the question of the EU’s role in a uni-polar world order – whether the EU should develop into an independent actor on the world stage or not. However, when it comes to the interaction among the Member States in order to decide on when to open accession negotiations with Turkey the constitutive values of the EU seriously modify the outcome that pure power politics would have let to.

The Relationship between Media and Political Agendas : Variations across Decision-Making Phases

Previous studies have demonstrated that the extent to which media coverage influences the issue priorities of policy makers is contingent on the type of issue, media, and political agenda. This article contends that the relationship between media and political agendas varies across the phases of the decision-making process. Based on a comprehensive dataset on issue attention in media coverage and various policy-making channels covering the years 1996-2003, the article analyses the level of media coverage and, more importantly, the distribution and correspondence of issue attention between media and political agendas across the four successive phases of the decision-making process (initiation, preparatory, parliamentary, and referendum phases) in Switzerland. Despite inversely distributed levels of attention for successive decision-making phases, both media and political agendas are concentrated on fewer issues in the initiation and referendum phases, and they are more strongly correlated in the most decisive stages of the process, that is, the preparatory and referendum phases.

A Clinical Decision Support using a Terminology Server to improve Patient Safety.

Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) are software applications that support clinicians in making healthcare decisions providing relevant information for individual patients about their specific conditions. The lack of integration between CDSS and Electronic Health Record (EHR) has been identified as a significant barrier to CDSS development and adoption. Andalusia Healthcare Public System (AHPS) provides an interoperable health information infrastructure based on a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) that eases CDSS implementation. This paper details the deployment of a CDSS jointly with the deployment of a Terminology Server (TS) within the AHPS infrastructure. It also explains a case study about the application of decision support to thromboembolism patients and its potential impact on improving patient safety. We will apply the inSPECt tool proposal to evaluate the appropriateness of alerts in this scenario.

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Decision Support Methods for Global Optomization

Immobile location-allocation (LA) problems is a type of LA problem that consists in determining the service each facility should offer in order to optimize some criterion (like the global demand), given the positions of the facilities and the customers. Due to the complexity of the problem, i.e. it is a combinatorial problem (where is the number of possible services and the number of facilities) with a non-convex search space with several sub-optimums, traditional methods cannot be applied directly to optimize this problem. Thus we proposed the use of clustering analysis to convert the initial problem into several smaller sub-problems. By this way, we presented and analyzed the suitability of some clustering methods to partition the commented LA problem. Then we explored the use of some metaheuristic techniques such as genetic algorithms, simulated annealing or cuckoo search in order to solve the sub-problems after the clustering analysis

Mechanisms of Photoaging and Cutaneous Photocarcinogenesis, and Photoprotective Strategies with Phytochemicals.

Photoaging and photocarcinogenesis are primarily due to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, which alters DNA, cellular antioxidant balance, signal transduction pathways, immunology, and the extracellular matrix (ECM). The DNA alterations include UV radiation induced thymine-thymine dimers and loss of tumor suppressor gene p53. UV radiation reduces cellular antioxidant status by generating reactive oxygen species (ROS), and the resultant oxidative stress alters signal transduction pathways such as the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK), the nuclear factor-kappa beta (NF-κB)/p65, the janus kinase (JAK), signal transduction and activation of transcription (STAT) and the nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2). UV radiation induces pro-inflammatory genes and causes immunosuppression by depleting the number and activity of the epidermal Langerhans cells. Further, UV radiation remodels the ECM by increasing matrixmetalloproteinases (MMP) and reducing structural collagen and elastin. The photoprotective strategies to prevent/treat photoaging and photocarcinogenesis include oral or topical agents that act as sunscreens or counteract the effects of UV radiation on DNA, cellular antioxidant balance, signal transduction pathways, immunology and the ECM. Many of these agents are phytochemical derivatives and include polyphenols and non-polyphenols. The flavonoids are polyphenols and include catechins, isoflavones, proanthocyanidins, and anthocyanins, whereas the non-flavonoids comprise mono phenolic acids and stilbenes. The natural sources of polyphenols include tea, cocoa, grape/wine, soy, pomegranate, and Polypodium leucotomos. The non-phenolic phytochemicals include carotenoids, caffeine and sulphoraphance (SFN). In addition, there are other phytochemical derivatives or whole extracts such as baicalin, flavangenol, raspberry extract, and Photomorphe umbellata with photoprotective activity against UVB radiation, and thereby carcinogenesis.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

Comparative Study of a Real-Time PCR Assay Targeting senX3-regX3 versus Other Molecular Strategies Commonly Used in the Diagnosis of Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND Nucleic acid amplification tests are increasingly used for the rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis. We undertook a comparative study of the efficiency and diagnostic yield of a real-time PCR senX3-regX3 based assay versus the classical IS6110 target and the new commercial methods. METHODS This single-blind prospective comparative study included 145 consecutive samples: 76 from patients with culture-confirmed tuberculosis (86.8% pulmonary and 13.2% extrapulmonary tuberculosis: 48.7% smear-positive and 51.3% smear-negative) and 69 control samples (24 from patients diagnosed with non-tuberculous mycobacteria infections and 45 from patients with suspected tuberculosis which was eventually ruled out). All samples were tested by two CE-marked assays (Xpert®MTB/RIF and AnyplexTM plus MTB/NTM) and two in-house assays targeting senX3-regX3 and the IS6110 gene. RESULTS The detection limit ranged from 1.00E+01 fg for Anyplex, senX3-regX3 and IS6110 to 1.00E+04 fg for Xpert. All three Xpert, senX3-regX3 and IS6110 assays detected all 37 smear-positive cases. Conversely, Anyplex was positive in 34 (91.9%) smear-positive cases. In patients with smear-negative tuberculosis, differences were observed between the assays; Xpert detected 22 (56.41%) of the 39 smear-negative samples, Anyplex 24 (61.53%), senX3-regX3 28 (71.79%) and IS6110 35 (89.74%). Xpert and senX3-regX3 were negative in all control samples; however, the false positive rate was 8.7% and 13% for Anyplex and IS6110, respectively. The overall sensitivity was 77.6%, 85.7%, 77.3% and 94.7% and the specificity was 100%, 100%, 90.8% and 87.0% for the Xpert, senX3-regX3, Anyplex and IS6110 assays, respectively. CONCLUSION Real-time PCR assays targeting IS6110 lack the desired specificity. The Xpert MTB/RIF and in-house senX3-regX3 assays are both sensitive and specific for the detection of MTBC in both pulmonary and extrapulmonary samples. Therefore, the real time PCR senX3-regX3 based assay could be a useful and complementary tool in the diagnosis of tuberculosis.

Adaptive search and information updating in sequential mate choice

Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.

The evolution of information suppression in communicating robots with conflicting interests.

Reliable information is a crucial factor influencing decision-making and, thus, fitness in all animals. A common source of information comes from inadvertent cues produced by the behavior of conspecifics. Here we use a system of experimental evolution with robots foraging in an arena containing a food source to study how communication strategies can evolve to regulate information provided by such cues. The robots could produce information by emitting blue light, which the other robots could perceive with their cameras. Over the first few generations, the robots quickly evolved to successfully locate the food, while emitting light randomly. This behavior resulted in a high intensity of light near food, which provided social information allowing other robots to more rapidly find the food. Because robots were competing for food, they were quickly selected to conceal this information. However, they never completely ceased to produce information. Detailed analyses revealed that this somewhat surprising result was due to the strength of selection on suppressing information declining concomitantly with the reduction in information content. Accordingly, a stable equilibrium with low information and considerable variation in communicative behaviors was attained by mutation selection. Because a similar coevolutionary process should be common in natural systems, this may explain why communicative strategies are so variable in many animal species.