966 resultados para counterfactual causal model


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Traffic safety studies mandate more than what existing micro-simulation models can offer as they postulate that every driver exhibits a safe behaviour. All the microscopic traffic simulation models are consisting of a car-following model and the Gazis–Herman–Rothery (GHR) car-following model is a widely used model. This paper highlights the limitations of the GHR car-following model capability to model longitudinal driving behaviour for safety study purposes. This study reviews and compares different version of the GHR model. To empower the GHR model on precise metrics reproduction a new set of car-following model parameters is offered to simulate unsafe vehicle conflicts. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the new model and short following headways and Time to Collision are employed to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. Risky events are extracted from available NGSIM data to evaluate the modified model against the generic versions of the GHR model. The results from simulation tests illustrate that the proposed model does predict the safety metrics better than the generic GHR model. Additionally it can potentially facilitate assessing and predicting traffic facilities’ safety using microscopic simulation. The new model can predict Near-miss rear-end crashes.

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Coate and Loury (1993) suggest the impact of affirmative action on a negative stereotype is theoretically ambiguous leading to either: a benign equilibrium in which affirmative action eradicates the negative stereotype and leads to equal proportional representation of the two groups; or alternatively a patronising equilibrium in which the stereotype persists. The current paper examines this theoretical ambiguity within the context of a laboratory experiment. Although benign and patronising equilibria are equally plausible in theory, the laboratory experiments easily replicate most features of the benign equilibrium, but diverge from the theoretically predicted patronising equilibrium.

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BACKGROUND: The plasminogen activator system has been proposed to play a role in proteolytic degradation of extracellular matrices in tissue remodeling, including wound healing. The aim of this study was to elucidate the presence of components of the plasminogen activator system during different stages of periodontal wound healing. METHODS: Periodontal wounds were created around the molars of adult rats and healing was followed for 28 days. Immunohistochemical analyses of the healing tissues and an analysis of the periodontal wound healing fluid by ELISA were carried out for the detection of tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA), urokinase-type plasminogen activator (u-PA), and 2 plasminogen activator inhibitors (PAI-1 and PAI-2). RESULTS: During the early stages (days 1 to 3) of periodontal wound healing, PAI-1 and PAI-2 were found to be closely associated with the deposition of a fibrin clot in the gingival sulcus. These components were strongly associated with the infiltrating inflammatory cells around the fibrin clot. During days 3 to 7, u-PA, PAI-1, and PAI-2 were associated with cells (particularly monocytes/macrophages, fibroblasts, and endothelial cells) in the newly formed granulation tissue. During days 7 to 14, a new attachment apparatus was formed during which PAI-1, PAI-2, and u-PA were localized in both periodontal ligament fibroblasts (PDL) and epithelial cells at sites where these cells were attaching to the root surface. In the periodontal wound healing fluid, the concentration for t-PA increased and peaked during the first week. PAI-2 had a similar expression to t-PA, but at a lower level over the entire wound-healing period. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that the plasminogen activator system is involved in the entire process of periodontal wound healing, in particular with the formation of fibrin matrix on the root surface and its replacement by granulation tissue, as well as the subsequent formation of the attachment of soft tissue to the root surface during the later stages of wound repair.

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Drosophila serrata is a member of the montium group, which contains more than 98 species and until recently was considered a subgroup within the melanogaster group. This Drosophila species is an emerging model system for evolutionary quantitative genetics and has been used in studies of species borders, clinal variation and sexual selection. Despite the importance of D. serrata as a model for evolutionary research, our poor understanding of its genome remains a significant limitation. Here, we provide a first-generation gene-based linkage map and a physical map for this species. Consistent with previous studies of other drosophilids we observed strong conservation of genes within chromosome arms homologous with D. melanogaster but major differences in within-arm synteny. These resources will be a useful complement to ongoing genome sequencing efforts and QTL mapping studies in this species

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The native Australian fly Drosophila serrata belongs to the highly speciose montium subgroup of the melanogaster species group. It has recently emerged as an excellent model system with which to address a number of important questions, including the evolution of traits under sexual selection and traits involved in climatic adaptation along latitudinal gradients. Understanding the molecular genetic basis of such traits has been limited by a lack of genomic resources for this species. Here, we present the first expressed sequence tag (EST) collection for D. serrata that will enable the identification of genes underlying sexually-selected phenotypes and physiological responses to environmental change and may help resolve controversial phylogenetic relationships within the montium subgroup.

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Urban sustainability and sustainable urban development concepts have been identified as the ultimate goal of many contemporary planning endeavours and have become central concepts on which the urban development policies are formulated. In the confinement of these concepts, land use and transport integration has been highlighted as one of the most important policy objectives considering the interrelationship between them and available intervention means of planning. While its interpretation varies, in Australia, it has been embraced as integration of land use and transport planning/policies and been an integral part of regional and local plans. Accordingly, a number of principles have been defined to guide its implementation, to name a few, planning for compact and connected urban development, encouraging active transport modes, creation of mixed-use activity centres and public transport precincts, provision of high quality public transport services, and enhancing character and amenity of urban areas. However, there is lack of an evaluation framework to measure the extent of achievement of implementation of these principles. In pursuit of filling this gap, this study aims to devise an evaluation framework to measure the performance of urban settings according to the integration principles in South East Queensland, Australia context and to demarcate problematic areas which can be intervened by planning tools...

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In 2004 Prahalad made managers aware of the great economic opportunity that the population at the BoP (Base of the Pyramid) represents for business in the form of new potential consumers. However, MNCs (Multi-National Corporations) generally continue to penetrate low income markets with the same strategies used at the top of the pyramid or choose not to invest at all in these regions because intimidated by having to re-envision their business models. The introduction of not re-arranged business models and products into developing countries has done nothing more over the years than induce new needs and develop new dependencies. By conducting a critical review of the literature this paper investigates and compares innovative approaches to operate in developing markets, which depart from the usual Corporate Social Responsibility marketing rhetoric, and rather consider the potential consumer at the BoP as a ring of continuity in the value chain − a resource that can itself produce value. Based on the concept of social embeddedness (London & Hart, 2004) and the principle that an open system contemplates different provisions (i.e. MNCs bring processes and technology, NGOs cultural mediating skills, governments laws and regulations, native people know-how and traditions), this paper concludes with a new business model reference that empowers all actors to contribute to value creation, while allowing MNCs to support local growth by turning what Prahalad called ‘inclusive capitalism’ into a more sustainable ‘inclusive entrepreneurial development’.

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Targeting students’ learning is at the centre of education. In addition, education is promoted as a solution on various issues; consequently educators seek ways for teachers to address societal needs, students’ learning needs, and the overcrowded curriculum. There are definition debates and issues around integrating curricula. However, the rationale for primary students undertaking curricula integrated learning can provide motivation for primary teachers to devise and implement curricula integrated lessons in the classroom. More exploration is required to present models for the practical implementation of curricula integration. This paper provides practical ideas for curricula integration that focus on combining achievement standards from the Australian Curriculum: Science and other key learning areas.

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The productivity of the construction industry worldwide has been declining over the past forty years. One approach to improving the situation is by the introduction of lean construction. The IKEA model has also been shown to be beneficial when used in the construction context. A framework is developed in which the lean construction concept is embodied within the IKEA model by integrating Virtual Prototyping (VP) technology and its implementation is described and evaluated through a real-life case implementing the lean production philosophy. The operational flows of the IKEA model and lean construction are then compared to analyze the feasibility of IKEA-based lean construction. It is concluded that the successful application of the IKEA model in this context will promote the implementation of lean construction and improve the efficiency of the industry.

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Sustainable urban development and the liveability of a city are increasingly important issues in the context of land use planning and infrastructure management. In recent years, the promotion of sustainable urban development in Australia and overseas is facing various physical, socioeconomic and environmental challenges. These challenges and problems arise from the lack of capability of local governments to accommodate the needs of the population and economy in a relatively short timeframe. The planning of economic growth and development is often dealt with separately and not included in the conventional land use planning process. There is also a sharp rise in the responsibilities and roles of local government for infrastructure planning and management. This increase in responsibilities means that local elected officials and urban planners have less time to prepare background information and make decisions. The Brisbane Urban Growth Model has proven initially successful in providing a dynamic platform to ensure timely and coordinated delivery of urban infrastructure. Most importantly, this model is the first step for local governments in moving toward a systematic approach to pursuing sustainable and effective urban infrastructure management.

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In recent years, local government infrastructure management practices have evolved from conventional land use planning to more wide ranging and integrated urban growth and infrastructure management approaches. The roles and responsibilities of local government are no longer simply to manage daily operational functions of a city and provide basic infrastructure. Local governments are now required to undertake economic planning, manage urban growth; be involved in major infrastructure planning; and even engage in achieving sustainable development objectives. The Brisbane Urban Growth model has proven initially successful to ensure timely and coordinated delivery of urban infrastructure. This model may be the first step for many local governments to move toward an integrated, sustainable and effective infrastructure management.

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Broad, early definitions of sustainable development have caused confusion and hesitation among local authorities and planning professionals. This confusion has arisen because loosely defined principles of sustainable development have been employed when setting policies and planning projects, and when gauging the efficiencies of these policies in the light of designated sustainability goals. The question of how this theory-rhetoric-practice gap can be filled is the main focus of this chapter. It examines the triple bottom line approach–one of the sustainability accounting approaches widely employed by governmental organisations–and the applicability of this approach to sustainable urban development. The chapter introduces the ‘Integrated Land Use and Transportation Indexing Model’ that incorporates triple bottom line considerations with environmental impact assessment techniques via a geographic, information systemsbased decision support system. This model helps decision-makers in selecting policy options according to their economic, environmental and social impacts. Its main purpose is to provide valuable knowledge about the spatial dimensions of sustainable development, and to provide fine detail outputs on the possible impacts of urban development proposals on sustainability levels. In order to embrace sustainable urban development policy considerations, the model is sensitive to the relationship between urban form, travel patterns and socio-economic attributes. Finally, the model is useful in picturing the holistic state of urban settings in terms of their sustainability levels, and in assessing the degree of compatibility of selected scenarios with the desired sustainable urban future.

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Recent management research has evidenced the significance of organizational social networks, and communication is believed to impact the interpersonal relationships. However, we have little knowledge on how communication affects organizational social networks. This paper studies the dynamics between organizational communication patterns and the growth of organizational social networks. We propose an organizational social network growth model, and then collect empirical data to test model validity. The simulation results agree well with the empirical data. The results of simulation experiments enrich our knowledge on communication with the findings that organizational management practices that discourage employees from communicating within and across group boundaries have disparate and significant negative effect on the social network’s density, scalar assortativity and discrete assortativity, each of which correlates with the organization’s performance. These findings also suggest concrete measures for management to construct and develop the organizational social network.

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This work-in-progress paper presents an ensemble-based model for detecting and mitigating Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks, and its partial implementation. The model utilises network traffic analysis and MIB (Management Information Base) server load analysis features for detecting a wide range of network and application layer DDoS attacks and distinguishing them from Flash Events. The proposed model will be evaluated against realistic synthetic network traffic generated using a software-based traffic generator that we have developed as part of this research. In this paper, we summarise our previous work, highlight the current work being undertaken along with preliminary results obtained and outline the future directions of our work.

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This paper will present program developers and institutional administrators with a program delivery model suitable for cross cultural international delivery developing students from industry through to master’s level tertiary qualifications. The model was designed to meet the needs of property professionals from an industry where technical qualifications are the norm and tertiary qualifications are emerging. A further need was to develop and deliver a program that enhanced the University’s current program profile in both the domestic and international arenas. Early identification of international educational partners, industry need and the ability to service the program were vital to the successful development of Master of Property program. The educational foundations of the program rest in educational partners, local tutorial support, international course management, cultural awareness of and in content, online communication fora, with a delivery focus on problem-based learning, self-directed study, teamwork and the development of a global understanding and awareness of the international property markets. In enrolling students from a diverse cultural background with technical qualifications and/or extensive work experience there are a number of educational barriers to be overcome for all students to successfully progress and complete the program. These barriers disappear when the following mechanisms are employed: individual student pathways, tutorial support by qualified peers, enculturation into tertiary practice, assessment tasks that recognise cultural norms and values, and finally that value is placed on the experiential knowledge, cultural practices and belief systems of the students.