Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Development of a Selective Peptide Macrocycle Inhibitor of Coagulation Factor XII toward the Generation of a Safe Antithrombotic Therapy.

Inhibition of coagulation factor XII (FXII) activity represents an attractive approach for the treatment and prevention of thrombotic diseases. The few existing FXII inhibitors suffer from low selectivity. Using phage display combined to rational design, we developed a potent inhibitor of FXII with more than 100-fold selectivity over related proteases. The highly selective peptide macrocycle is a promising candidate for the control of FXII activity in antithrombotic therapy and a valuable tool in hematology research.

Liver enzyme elevation after lamivudine withdrawal in HIV-hepatitis B virus co-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Background The principal causes of liver enzyme elevation among HIV-hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infected patients are the hepatotoxic effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART), alcohol abuse, ART-induced immune reconstitution and the exacerbation of chronic HBV infection. Objectives To investigate the incidence and severity of liver enzyme elevation, liver failure and death following lamivudine (3TC) withdrawal in HIV-HBV co-infected patients. Methods Retrospective analysis of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database to assess the clinical and biological consequences of the discontinuation of 3TC. Variables considered for analysis included liver enzyme, HIV virological and immunological parameters, and medication prescribed during a 6-month period following 3TC withdrawal. Results 3TC was discontinued in 255 patients on 363 occasions. On 147 occasions (109 patients), a follow-up visit within 6 months following 3TC withdrawal was recorded. Among these patients, liver enzyme elevation occurred on 42 occasions (29%), three of them (2%) with severity grade III and five of them (3.4%) with severity grade IV elevations (as defined by the AIDS Clinical Trials Group). Three patients presented with fulminant hepatitis. One death (0.7%) was recorded. Conclusions HBV reactivation leading to liver dysfunction may be an under-reported consequence of 3TC withdrawal in HIV-HBV co-infected patients. Regular monitoring of HBV markers is warranted if active therapy against HBV is discontinued.

On the drivers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels

We use the recent introduction of biofuels to study the effect of industry factors on the relationshipsbetween wholesale commodity prices. Correlations between agricultural products and oilare strongest in the 2005-09 period, coinciding with the boom of biofuels, and remain substantialuntil 2011. We disentangle three possible drivers for the linkage: substitution, energy costs, andfinancialization. The timing and magnitude of the biofuels-to-oil relationships are different to thoseof other commodities, and far higher than can be justified by costs and financialization. Substitutionand costs drive the monthly correlations of long-term futures, and each of the three contributeequally to the daily co-movement of the short-term ones. The findings survive many robustnesschecks and appear in the stock market.

ETYK III-vaihe (Tasavallan Presidentin esittämä Suomen puheenvuoro 31.7.1975 = Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe = main speech of Finland delivered by President Urho Kekkonen July 31, 1975)

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The efficiency of a carbamazepine-mianserin combination scheme in opiate detoxification.

A recent comparative randomized double-blind study has suggested the utility of a carbamazepine/mianserin combination as a treatment for opiate withdrawal. The aim of the present study was to explore the feasibility and efficiency of this combination under naturalistic conditions. Five hundred and fifty mostly polysubstance abusing patients treated with a standardized scheme combining carbamazepine and mianserin were assessed with regard to deviations to the protocol, used co-medications and retention in treatment.Three hundred and sixty three patients (66.0%) received the carbamazepine/mianserin combination as specified by the standardized protocol. In 350 patients (63.7%) the whole 10 days was completed. The most frequently used p.r.n. medications were for anxiety (47.5%) and insomnia (54.5%).The treatment of opiate withdrawal with a carbamazepine/mianserin combination scheme in an inpatient setting seems to be feasible and applicable with few adaptations to most patients, and may represent an interesting treatment option for multidrug users.

Molecular epidemiology and evolution of HIV-1 in Portugal and portuguese speaking african countries

The aims of this thesis were to better characterize HIV-1 diversity in Portugal, Angola, Mozambique and Cape Verde and to investigate the origin and epidemiological history of HIV-1 in these countries. The impact of these issues in diagnosis, disease progression and susceptibility to ARV therapy was also investigated. Finally, the nature, dynamics and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) was determined in untreated HIV-1 infected patients. In Angola, practically all HIV-1 genetic forms were found, including almost all subtypes, untypable (U) strains, CRFs and URFs. Recombinants (first and second generation) were present in 47.1% of the patients. HIV/AIDS epidemic in Angola probably started in 1961, the major cause being the independence war, subsequently spreading to Portugal. In Maputo, 81% of the patients were infected with subtype C viruses. Subtype G, U and recombinants such as CRF37_cpx, were also present. The results suggest that HIV-1 epidemic in Mozambique is evolving rapidly in genetic complexity. In Cape Verde, where HIV-1 and HIV-2 co-circulate, subtype G is the prevailed subtype. Subtypes B, C, F1, U, CRF02_AG and other recombinant strains were also found. HIV-2 isolates belonged to group A, some being closely related to the original ROD isolate. In all three countries numerous new polymorphisms were identified in the RT and PR of HIV-1 viruses. Mutations conferring resistance to the NRTIs or NNRTIs were found in isolates from 2 (2%) patients from Angola, 4 (6%) from Mozambique and 3 (12%) from Cape Verde. None of the isolates containing TDR mutations would be fully sensitive to the standard first-line therapeutic regimens used in these countries. Close surveillance in treated and untreated populations will be crucial to prevent further transmission of drug resistant strains and maximize the efficacy of ARV therapy. In Portugal, investigation of a seronegative case infection with rapid progression to AIDS and death revealed that the patient was infected with a CRF14_BG-like R5-tropic strain selectively transmitted by his seropositive sexual partner. The results suggest a massive infection with a highly aggressive CRF14_BG like strain and/or the presence of an unidentified immunological problem that prevented the formation of HIV-1-specific antibodies. Near full-length genomic sequences obtained from three unrelated patients enabled the first molecular and phylogenomic characterization of CRF14_BG from Portugal; all sequences were strongly related with CRF14_BG Spanish isolates. The mean date of origin of CRF14_BG was estimated to be 1992. We propose that CRF14_BG emerged in Portugal in the early 1990s, spread to Spain in late 1990s as a consequence of IDUs migration and then to the rest of Europe. Most CRF14_BG strains were predicted to use CXCR4 and were associated with rapid CD4 depletion and disease progression. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that the X4 tropism of CRF14_BG may have resulted from convergent evolution of the V3 loop possibly driven by an effective escape from neutralizing antibody response.

Co-infecção por vírus da hepatite B e vírus da imunodeficiência humana em países africanos

Introdução: Actualmente, estima-se que existam dois milhões de indivíduos infectados por vírus da hepatite B (VHB) e que, cerca de 25% dos indivíduos com infecção crónica morrem devido a sequelas resultantes da infecção por VHB. Paralelamente, calcula-se que existam cerca de 33 milhões de indivíduos infectados por VIH, sendo que 22, 5 milhões residem na região de África a sul do Sara. Na região de África a sul do Sara existem poucos estudos efectuados no âmbito da co-infecção por VIH/VHB. Contudo, dos estudos existentes, esta taxa pode situar-se entre os 2,4% e os 9,9%. Objectivo: Avaliar as taxas de seroprevalência de VHB e VIH, assim como a taxa de co-infecção por VIH/VHB em Angola, Cabo Verde, Guiné-Bissau e Moçambique. Métodos: Foram efectuadas duas pesquisas bibliográficas neste estudo. A primeira, realizada nos meses de Setembro/Outubro 2008, tinha como objectivo contextualizar a infecção por VHB, VIH e a co-infecção por VIH/VHB nos países desenvolvidos e nos países em desenvolvimento. A segunda pesquisa foi efectuada durante o mês de Agosto de 2009, e visava apenas cobrir a realidade dos países em análise, relativamente aos objectivos previamente delineados do estudo. Resultados: Em Moçambique, constatou-se que a seroprevalência de VIH-1 tinha quadriplicado entre 1993 (1,17%) e o ano 2000 (4,5%). Na Guiné-Bissau, entre 1997 e 1999, também a seroprevalência de VIH-1 duplicou (2,5% e 5,2%, respectivamente). Em Cabo-Verde, no ano de 2006, a seroprevalência de VIH era 2,4%, enquanto que a seroprevalência da infecção por VHB era 4,4%. Em Angola, no ano de 2005, a seroprevalência de VIH era de 2,5%. Neste estudo também foi avaliada a co-infecção, sendo que nenhum caso foi diagnosticado. Conclusão: É urgente realizarem-se mais estudos nos países PALOP, no âmbito da seroprevalência das monoinfecções VIH e VHB, assim como na co-infecção por VIH/VHB, uma vez que existe pouca informação disponível. De qualquer modo, sendo a infecção por VHB uma doença prevenível por vacina, é fundamental que os planos de vacinação continuem a ser postos em prática nos países onde já estão implementados e, no caso dos países que ainda não os têm, que a sua implementação seja efectuada de forma sustentada e o mais brevemente possível.

Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfoliosinfluences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.

Generation of the primary hair follicle pattern.

Hair follicles are spaced apart from one another at regular intervals through the skin. Although follicles are predominantly epidermal structures, classical tissue recombination experiments indicated that the underlying dermis defines their location during development. Although many molecules involved in hair follicle formation have been identified, the molecular interactions that determine the emergent property of pattern formation have remained elusive. We have used embryonic skin cultures to dissect signaling responses and patterning outcomes as the skin spatially organizes itself. We find that ectodysplasin receptor (Edar)-bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) signaling and transcriptional interactions are central to generation of the primary hair follicle pattern, with restriction of responsiveness, rather than localization of an inducing ligand, being the key driver in this process. The crux of this patterning mechanism is rapid Edar-positive feedback in the epidermis coupled with induction of dermal BMP4/7. The BMPs in turn repress epidermal Edar and hence follicle fate. Edar activation also induces connective tissue growth factor, an inhibitor of BMP signaling, allowing BMP action only at a distance from their site of synthesis. Consistent with this model, transgenic hyperactivation of Edar signaling leads to widespread overproduction of hair follicles. This Edar-BMP activation-inhibition mechanism appears to operate alongside a labile prepattern, suggesting that Edar-mediated stabilization of beta-catenin active foci is a key event in determining definitive follicle locations.

A leverage theory of reputation building with co-branding: Complementarity in reputation building

We present a leverage theory of reputation building with co-branding. We showthat under certain conditions, co-branding that links unknown firms in a new sectorwith established firms in a mature sector allows the unknown firms to signal a highproduct quality and establish their own reputation. We compare this situationwith a benchmark in which both sectors are new and firms signal their qualityonly with prices. We investigate how this comparison is affected by the nature ofthe technology linking the two sectors and a cross-sector inference problem thatconsumers might face in identifying the true cause of product failure. We find thatco-branding facilitates the process in which a Þrm in the new sector to signal itsproduct quality only if the co-branding sectors produce complementary inputs andconsumers face a cross-sector inference problem. We apply our insight to economicsof superstars, multinational firms and co-authorship.