Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Characterization of virus-like particles associated with the human faecal and caecal microbiota

This work represents an investigation into the presence, abundance and diversity of virus-like particles (VLPs) associated with human faecal and caecal samples. Various methodologies for the recovery of VLPs from faeces were tested and optimized, including successful down-stream processing of such samples for the purpose of an in-depth electron microscopic analysis, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and efficient DNA recovery. The applicability of the developed VLP characterization method beyond the use of faecal samples was then verified using samples obtained from human caecal fluid.

The annual-cycle modulation of meridional asymmetry in ENSO’s atmospheric response and its dependence on ENSO zonal structure

Previous studies documented that a distinct southward shift of central-Pacific low-level wind anomalies occurring during the ENSO decaying phase, is caused by an interaction between the Western Pacific annual cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The present study finds that the meridional movement of the central-Pacific wind anomalies appears only during traditional Eastern-Pacific (or EP) El Niño events rather than in Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. The zonal structure of ENSO-related SST anomalies therefore has an important effect on meridional asymmetry in the associated atmospheric response and its modulation by the annual cycle. In contrast to EP El Niño events, the SST anomalies of CP El Niño events extend further west towards to the warm pool region with its climatological warm SSTs. In the warm pool region, relatively small SST anomalies thus are able to excite convection anomalies on both sides of the equator, even with a meridionally asymmetric SST background state. Therefore, almost meridionally symmetric precipitation and wind anomalies are observed over the central Pacific during the decaying phase of CP El Niño events. The SST anomaly pattern of La Niña events is similar to CP El Niño events with a reversed sign. Accordingly, no distinct southward displacement of the atmospheric response occurs over the central Pacific during the La Niña decaying phase. These results have important implications for ENSO climate impacts over East Asia, since the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific is an integral part of the annual cycle-modulated ENSO response.

Influence of the size distribution of particles on the viscous property of an electrorheological fluid

The influence of the size distribution of particles on the viscous property of an electrorheological fluid has been investigated by the molecular dynamic simulation method. The shear stress of the fluid is found to decrease with the increase of the variance sigma(2) of the Gaussian distribution of the particle size, and then reach a steady value when sigma is larger than 0.5. This phenomenon is attributed to the influence of the particle size distribution on the dynamic structural evolution in the fluid as well as the strength of the different chain-like structures formed by the particles.

How do atmospheric rivers form?

Identifying the source of atmospheric rivers: Are they rivers of moisture exported from the subtropics or footprints left behind by poleward travelling storms? The term atmospheric river is used to describe corridors of strong water vapor transport in the troposphere. Filaments of enhanced water vapor, commonly observed in satellite imagery extending from the subtropics to the extratropics, are routinely used as a proxy for identifying these regions of strong water vapor transport. The precipitation associated with these filaments of enhanced water vapor can lead to high impact flooding events. However, there remains some debate as to how these filaments form. In this paper we analyse the transport of water vapor within a climatology of wintertime North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results show that atmospheric rivers are formed by the cold front which sweeps up water vapor in the warm sector as it catches up with the warm front. This causes a narrow band of high water vapor content to form ahead of the cold front at the base of the warm conveyor belt airflow. Thus, water vapor in the cyclone's warm sector, and not long-distance transport of water vapor from the subtropics, is responsible for the generation of filaments of high water vapor content. A continuous cycle of evaporation and moisture convergence within the cyclone replenishes water vapor lost via precipitation. Thus, rather than representing a direct and continuous feed of moist air from the subtropics into the centre of a cyclone (as suggested by the term atmospheric river), these filaments are, in-fact, the result of water vapor exported from the cyclone and thus they represent the footprints left behind as cyclones travel polewards from subtropics.

The response of the sea ice edge to atmospheric and oceanic jet formation

The sea ice edge presents a region of many feedback processes between the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice (Maslowski et al.). Here the authors focus on the impact of on-ice atmospheric and oceanic flows at the sea ice edge. Mesoscale jet formation due to the Coriolis effect is well understood over sharp changes in surface roughness such as coastlines (Hunt et al.). This sharp change in surface roughness is experienced by the atmosphere and ocean encountering a compacted sea ice edge. This paper presents a study of a dynamic sea ice edge responding to prescribed atmospheric and oceanic jet formation. An idealized analytical model of sea ice drift is developed and compared to a sea ice climate model [the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE)] run on an idealized domain. The response of the CICE model to jet formation is tested at various resolutions. It is found that the formation of atmospheric jets at the sea ice edge increases the wind speed parallel to the sea ice edge and results in the formation of a sea ice drift jet in agreement with an observed sea ice drift jet (Johannessen et al.). The increase in ice drift speed is dependent upon the angle between the ice edge and wind and results in up to a 40% increase in ice transport along the sea ice edge. The possibility of oceanic jet formation and the resultant effect upon the sea ice edge is less conclusive. Observations and climate model data of the polar oceans have been analyzed to show areas of likely atmospheric jet formation, with the Fram Strait being of particular interest.

Optical properties of Saharan dust aerosol and contribution from the coarse mode as measured during the Fennec 2011 aircraft campaign

New in-situ aircraft measurements of Saharan dust originating from Mali, Mauritania and Algeria taken during the Fennec 2011 aircraft campaign over a remote part of the Sahara Desert are presented. Size distributions extending to 300 μm are shown, representing measurements extending further into the coarse mode than previously published for airborne Saharan dust. A significant coarse mode was present in the size distribution measurements with effective diameter (deff) from 2.3 to 19.4 μm and coarse mode volume median diameter (dvc) from 5.8 to 45.3 μm. The mean size distribution had a larger relative proportion of coarse mode particles than previous aircraft measurements. The largest particles (with deff >12 μm, or dvc >25 μm) were only encountered within 1 km of the ground. Number concentration, mass loading and extinction coefficient showed inverse relationships to dust age since uplift. Dust particle size showed a weak exponential relationship to dust age. Two cases of freshly uplifted dust showed quite different characteristics of size distribution and number concentration. Single Scattering Albed (SSA) values at 550 nm calculated from the measured size distributions revealed high absorption ranging from 0.70 to 0.97 depending on the refractive index. SSA was found to be strongly related to deff. New instrumentation revealed that direct measurements, behind Rosemount inlets, overestimate SSA by up to 0.11 when deff is greater than 2 μm. This is caused by aircraft inlet inefficiencies and sampling losses. Previous measurements of SSA from aircraft measurements may also have been overestimates for this reason. Radiative transfer calculations indicate that the range of SSAs during Fennec 2011 can lead to underestimates in shortwave atmospheric heating rates by 2.0 to 3.0 times if the coarse mode is neglected. This will have an impact on Saharan atmospheric dynamics and circulation,which should be taken into account by numerical weather prediction and climate models.

Aerosol scattering and absorption during the EUCAARI-LONGREX flights of the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146: can measurements and models agree?

Scattering and absorption by aerosol in anthropogenically perturbed air masses over Europe has been measured using instrumentation flown on the UK’s BAe-146-301 large Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) operated by the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) on 14 flights during the EUCAARI-LONGREX campaign in May 2008. The geographical and temporal variations of the derived shortwave optical properties of aerosol are presented. Values of single scattering albedo of dry aerosol at 550 nm varied considerably from 0.86 to near unity, with a campaign average of 0.93 ± 0.03. Dry aerosol optical depths ranged from 0.030 ± 0.009 to 0.24 ± 0.07. An optical properties closure study comparing calculations from composition data and Mie scattering code with the measured properties is presented. Agreement to within measurement uncertainties of 30% can be achieved for both scattering and absorption,but the latter is shown to be sensitive to the refractive indices chosen for organic aerosols, and to a lesser extent black carbon, as well as being highly dependent on the accuracy of the absorption measurements. Agreement with the measured absorption can be achieved either if organic carbon is assumed to be weakly absorbing, or if the organic aerosol is purely scattering and the absorption measurement is an overestimate due to the presence of large amounts of organic carbon. Refractive indices could not be inferred conclusively due to this uncertainty, despite the enhancement in methodology compared to previous studies that derived from the use of the black carbon measurements. Hygroscopic growth curves derived from the wet nephelometer indicate moderate water uptake by the aerosol with a campaign mean f (RH) value (ratio in scattering) of 1.5 (range from 1.23 to 1.63) at 80% relative humidity. This value is qualitatively consistent with the major chemical components of the aerosol measured by the aerosol mass spectrometer, which are primarily mixed organics and nitrate and some sulphate.

Modulation of UK lightning by heliospheric magnetic field polarity

Observational studies have reported solar magnetic modulation of terrestrial lightning on a range of time scales, from days to decades. The proposed mechanism is two-step: lightning rates vary with galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux incident on Earth, either via changes in atmospheric conductivity and/or direct triggering of lightning. GCR flux is, in turn, primarily controlled by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) intensity. Consequently, global changes in lightning rates are expected. This study instead considers HMF polarity, which doesnʼt greatly affect total GCR flux. Opposing HMF polarities are, however, associated with a 40–60% difference in observed UK lightning and thunder rates. As HMF polarity skews the terrestrial magnetosphere from its nominal position, this perturbs local ionospheric potential at high latitudes and local exposure to energetic charged particles from the magnetosphere. We speculate as to the mechanism(s) by which this may, in turn, redistribute the global location and/or intensity of thunderstorm activity.

Atmospheric electric field measurements in urban environment and the pollutant aerosol weekly dependence

The weekly dependence of pollutant aerosols in the urban environment of Lisbon (Portugal) is inferred from the records of atmospheric electric field at Portela meteorological station (38°47′N,9°08′W). Measurements were made with a Bendorf electrograph. The data set exists from 1955 to 1990, but due to the contaminating effect of the radioactive fallout during 1960 and 1970s, only the period between 1980 and 1990 is considered here. Using a relative difference method a weekly dependence of the atmospheric electric field is found in these records, which shows an increasing trend between 1980 and 1990. This is consistent with a growth of population in the Lisbon metropolitan area and consequently urban activity, mainly traffic. Complementarily, using a Lomb–Scargle periodogram technique the presence of a daily and weekly cycle is also found. Moreover, to follow the evolution of theses cycles, in the period considered, a simple representation in a colour surface plot representation of the annual periodograms is presented. Further, a noise analysis of the periodograms is made, which validates the results found. Two datasets were considered: all days in the period, and fair-weather days only.

Remarkable dynamics of nanoparticles in the urban atmosphere

Nanoparticles emitted from road traffic are the largest source of respiratory exposure for the general public living in urban areas. It has been suggested that adverse health effects of airborne particles may scale with airborne particle number, which if correct, focuses attention on the nanoparticle (less than 100 nm) size range which dominates the number count in urban areas. Urban measurements of particle size distributions have tended to show a broadly similar pattern dominated by a mode centred on 20–30 nm diameter emitted by diesel engine exhaust. In this paper we report the results of measurements of particle number concentration and size distribution made in a major London park as well as on the BT Tower, 160 m aloft. These measurements taken during the REPARTEE project (Regents Park and BT Tower experiment) show a remarkable shift in particle size distributions with major losses of the smallest particle class as particles are advected away from the traffic source. In the Park, the traffic related mode at 20–30 nm diameter is much reduced with a new mode at <10 nm. Size distribution measurements also revealed higher number concentrations of sub-50 nm particles at the BT Tower during days affected by higher turbulence as determined by Doppler Lidar measurements and are indicative of loss of nanoparticles from air aged during less turbulent conditions. These results are suggestive of nanoparticle loss by evaporation, rather than coagulation processes. The results have major implications for understanding the impacts of traffic-generated particulate matter on human health.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme cold winters in the UK

This study examines the atmospheric circulation patterns and surface features associated with the seven coldest winters in the U.K. since 1870, using the 20th Century Reanalysis. Six of these winters are outside the scope of previous reanalysis datasets; we examine them here for the first time. All winters show a marked lack of the climatological southwesterly flow over the UK, displaying easterly and northeasterly anomalies. Six of the seven winters (all except 1890) were associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation; 1890 was characterised by a blocking anticyclone over and northeast of the UK.

Processes controlling atmospheric dispersion through city centres

We develop a process-based model for the dispersion of a passive scalar in the turbulent flow around the buildings of a city centre. The street network model is based on dividing the airspace of the streets and intersections into boxes, within which the turbulence renders the air well mixed. Mean flow advection through the network of street and intersection boxes then mediates further lateral dispersion. At the same time turbulent mixing in the vertical detrains scalar from the streets and intersections into the turbulent boundary layer above the buildings. When the geometry is regular, the street network model has an analytical solution that describes the variation in concentration in a near-field downwind of a single source, where the majority of scalar lies below roof level. The power of the analytical solution is that it demonstrates how the concentration is determined by only three parameters. The plume direction parameter describes the branching of scalar at the street intersections and hence determines the direction of the plume centreline, which may be very different from the above-roof wind direction. The transmission parameter determines the distance travelled before the majority of scalar is detrained into the atmospheric boundary layer above roof level and conventional atmospheric turbulence takes over as the dominant mixing process. Finally, a normalised source strength multiplies this pattern of concentration. This analytical solution converges to a Gaussian plume after a large number of intersections have been traversed, providing theoretical justification for previous studies that have developed empirical fits to Gaussian plume models. The analytical solution is shown to compare well with very high-resolution simulations and with wind tunnel experiments, although re-entrainment of scalar previously detrained into the boundary layer above roofs, which is not accounted for in the analytical solution, is shown to become an important process further downwind from the source.

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng g−1 for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng g−1 for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng g−1. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model–measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60–90° N) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07–0.25) W m−2 and 0.18 (0.06–0.28) W m−2 in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W m−2 for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.