Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: An Experimental Comparison of the RRT and the Crosswise Model

Self-administered online surveys provide a higher level of privacy protection to respondents than surveys administered by an interviewer. Yet, studies show that asking sensitive questions is problematic also in self-administered mode. Because respondents might not be willing to reveal the truth and provide answers that are subject to social desirability bias, the validity of prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors gained via online surveys can be challenged. A wellknown method to combat these problems is the Randomized Response Technique (RRT). However, convincing evidence that the RRT provides more valid estimates than direct questioning in online mode is still lacking. Moreover, an alternative approach called the Crosswise Model (CM) has recently been suggested to overcome some of the deficiencies of the RRT. We therefore conducted an experimental study in which different implementations of the RRT and the CM have been tested and compared to direct questioning. Our study is a large-scale online survey on sensitive behaviors by students such as cheating in exams and paper plagiarism. The results of the study reveal poor per-formance of the RRT, while the CM yielded significantly higher estimates of sensitive behaviors than direct questioning. We conclude that the CM is a promising approach for asking sensitive questions in self-administered surveys.

Asking Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: An Experimental Comparison of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Self-administered online surveys provide a higher level of privacy protection to respondents than surveys administered by an interviewer. Yet, studies show that asking sensitive questions is problematic also in self-administered mode. Because respondents might not be willing to reveal the truth and provide answers that are subject to social desirability bias, the validity of prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors gained via online surveys can be challenged. A well-known method to combat these problems is the Randomized Response Technique (RRT). However, convincing evidence that the RRT provides more valid estimates than direct questioning in online mode is still lacking. Moreover, an alternative approach called the Crosswise Model (CM) has recently been suggested to overcome some of the deficiencies of the RRT. In the context of an online survey on plagiarism and cheating on exams among students of two Swiss universities (N = 6,494), we tested different implementations of the RRT and the CM and compared them to direct questioning using a randomized experimental design. Results reveal a poor performance of the RRT, which failed to elicit higher prevalence estimates than direct questioning. Using the CM however, significantly higher prevalence estimates were obtained making it a promising new alternative to the conventional RRT.

Applying an Ecobiodevelopmental Framework to Food Insecurity: More Than Simply Food for Thought

Dramatic advances in developmental sciences are beginning to reveal the biological mechanisms underlying well-established associations between early childhood adversity and lifelong measures of limited productivity and poor health. The case studies by Chilton and Rabinowich provide poignant and compelling qualitative data that support an ecobiodevelopmental approach towards understanding and addressing both the complex causes and intergenerational consequences of food insecurity.

Die katholische Kirche und Moralpolitik in Österreich: Reformdynamiken in der Regulierung von Schwangerschaftsabbrüchen und der Anerkennung gleichgeschlechtlicher Partnerschaften

Eine vergleichende Analyse der Regulierung von Schwangerschaftsabbrüchen und gleichgeschlechtlichen Partnerschaften in Westeuropa im Zeitraum von 1960 bis 2010 zeigt, dass katholisch geprägte Staaten diese Bereiche grundsätzlich nicht weniger stark liberalisiert haben als andere Länder. Allerdings drosselt der Katholizismus offensichtlich die Geschwindigkeit von Reformprozessen. Auf Basis einer detaillierten explorativen Analyse der Politikentwicklungen in Österreich, das sehr früh die Gesetzgebung zum Schwangerschaftsabbruch lockerte, jedoch bei der Einführung registrierter homosexueller Partnerschaften lange zögerte, leiten wir induktiv theoretische Implikationen ab: Die katholische Kirche kann permissive Reformen so lange verhindern, wie institutionelle und kulturelle Gelegenheitsstrukturen nicht der säkular-liberalen Opposition behilflich sind, erfolgreiches Agenda-Setting zu betreiben und Mehrheiten für einen Politikwechsel zu gewinnen.

Decision-Making Processes in Voluntary Football Clubs in Relation to External Counselling

Introduction Recruiting and retaining volunteers who are prepared to make a long-term commitment is a major problem for Swiss sports clubs. With the inclusion of external counselling for the change and systematisation of volunteer management, sports clubs have a possibility to develop and defuse problems in spite of existing barriers and gaps in knowledge. To what extent is external counselling for personnel problems effective? It is often observed that standardised counselling inputs lead to varying consequences for sports clubs. It can be assumed that external impulses are interpreted and transformed differently into the workings of the club. However, this cannot be solely attributed to the situational or structural conditions of the clubs. It is also important to consider the underlying decision-making processes of a club. According to Luhmann’s organisational sociological considerations (2000), organisations (sports clubs) have to be viewed as social systems consisting of (communicated) decisions. This means that organisations are continually reproduced by decision-making processes. All other (observable) factors such as an organisation’s goals, recruiting strategies, support schemes for volunteers etc., have to be seen as an outcome of the operation of prior organisational decisions. Therefore: How do decision-making processes in sports clubs work in the context of the implementation of external counselling? Theoretical Framework An examination of the actual situation in sports clubs shows that decisions frequently appear to be shaped by inconsistency, unexpected outcomes, and randomness (Amis & Slack, 2003). Therefore, it must be emphasised that these decisions cannot be analysed according to any rational decision-making model. Their specific structural characteristics only permit a limited degree of rationality – bounded rationality. Non-profit organisations in particular are shaped by a specific mode of decisionmaking that Cohen, March, and Olsen (1972) have called the “garbage can model”. As sport clubs can also be conceived as “organised anarchies”, this model seems to offer an appropriate approach to understanding their practices and analysing their decision-making processes. The key concept in the garbage can model is the assumption that decision-making processes in organisations consist of four “streams”: (a) problems, (b) actors, (c) decision-making opportunities, and (d) solutions. Method Before presenting the method of the analysis of the decision-making processes in sports clubs, the external counselling will be described. The basis of the counselling is generated by a sports clubs’ capability to change. Due to the specific structural characteristics and organisational principles, change processes in sports clubs often merge with barriers and restrictions. These need to be considered when developing counselling guidelines for a successful planning and realisation of change processes. Furthermore, important aspects of personnel management in sports clubs and especially volunteer management must be implied in order to elaborate key elements for the counselling to recruit new volunteers (e.g., approach, expectations). A counselling of four system-counselling workshops was conceptualised by considering these specific characteristics. The decision-making processes in the sports clubs were analysed during the counselling and the implementation process. A case study is designed with the appropriate methodological approach for such explorative research. The approach adopted for these single case analyses was oriented toward the research program of behavioural decision-making theory (garbage can model). This posits that in-depth insights into organisational decision-making processes can only be gained through relevant case studies of existing organisational situations (Skille, 2013). Before, during and after the intervention, questionnaires and guided interviews were conducted with the project teams of the twelve par-ticipating football clubs to assess the different components of the “streams” in the context of external counselling. These interviews have been analysed using content analysis following guidelines as for-mulated by Mayring (2010). Results The findings show that decision-making processes in football clubs occur differently in the context of external counselling. Different initial positions and problems are the triggers for these decision-making processes. Furthermore, the implementation of the solutions and the external counselling is highly dependent on the commitment of certain people as central players within the decision-mak-ing process. The importance of these relationships is confirmed by previous findings in regard to decision-making and change processes in sports clubs. The decision-making processes in sports clubs can be theoretically analysed using behavioural decision-making theory and the “garbage can model”. Bounded rationality characterises all “streams” of the decision-making processes. Moreo-ver, the decision-making process of the football clubs can be well illustrated in the framework, and the interplay of the different dimensions illustrates the different decision-making practices within the football clubs. References Amis, J., & Slack, T. (2003). Analysing sports organisations: Theory and practice. In B. Houlihan (Eds.), Sport & Society (pp. 201–217). London, England: Sage. Cohen, M.D., March, J.G., & Olsen, J.P. (1972). A garbage can model of organisational choice. Ad-ministrative Science Quarterly, 17, 1-25. Luhmann, N. (2000). Organisation und Entscheidung. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag. Mayring, P. (2010). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Grundlagen und Techniken. Weinheim: Beltz. Skille, E. Å. (2013). Case study research in sport management: A reflection upon the theory of science and an empirical example. In S. Söderman & H. Dolles (Eds.), Handbook of research on sport and business (pp. 161–175). Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar.

How expectations affect reference point formation: an experimental investigation

This paper addresses two major topics concerning the role of expectations in the formation of reference points. First, we show that when expectations are present, they have a significant impact on reference point formation. Second, we find that decision-makers employ expected values when forming reference points (integrated mechanism) as opposed to single possible outcomes (segregated mechanism). Despite the importance of reference points in prospect theory, to date, there is no standard method of examining these. We develop a new experimental design that employs an indirect approach and extends an existing direct approach. Our findings are consistent across the two approaches.

Periacetabular osteotomy through the pararectus approach: technical feasibility and control of fragment mobility by a validated surgical navigation system in a cadaver experiment

PURPOSE The pararectus approach has been validated for managing acetabular fractures. We hypothesised it might be an alternative approach for performing periacetabular osteotomy (PAO). METHODS Using four cadaver specimens, we randomly performed PAO through either the pararectus or a modified Smith-Petersen (SP) approach. We assessed technical feasibility and safety. Furthermore, we controlled fragment mobility using a surgical navigation system and compared mobility between approaches. The navigation system's accuracy was tested by cross-examination with validated preoperative planning software. RESULTS The pararectus approach is technically feasible, allowing for adequate exposure, safe osteotomies and excellent control of structures at risk. Fragment mobility is equal to that achieved through the SP approach. Validation of these measurements yielded a mean difference of less <1 mm without statistical significance. CONCLUSION Experimental data suggests the pararectus approach might be an alternative approach for performing PAO. Clinical validation is necessary to confirm these promising preliminary results.

Evaluation of an inventory for the assessment of critical incidents involving football fans

Introduction: Fan violence is a frequent occurrence in Swiss football (Bundesamt für Polizei, 2015) leading to high costs for prevention and control (Mensch & Maurer, 2014). Various theories put forward an explanation of fan violence, such as the Elaborated Social Identity Model (Drury & Reicher, 2000) and the Aggravation Mitigation Model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010). Important observations from these theories are the multi-dimensional understanding of fan violence and the dynamics occurring in the fan group. Nevertheless, none of them deal with critical incidents (CIs) which involve a tense atmosphere combined with a higher risk of fan violence. Schumacher Dimech, Brechbühl and Seiler (2015) tackled this gap in research and explored CIs where 43 defining criteria were identified and compiled in an integrated model of CIs. The defining criteria were categorised in four higher-order themes “antecedents” (e.g. a documented history of fan rivalry), “triggers” (e.g. the arrest of a fan), “reactions” (e.g. fans masking themselves) and “consequences” (e.g. fans avoiding communication with fan social workers). Methods: An inventory based on this model is being developed including these 43 criteria. In an exploratory phase, this inventory was presented as an online questionnaire and was completed by 143 individuals. Three main questions are examined: Firstly, the individual items are tested using descriptive analyses. An item analysis is conducted to test reliability, item difficulty and discriminatory power. Secondly, the model’s four higher-order themes are tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Thirdly, differences between sub-groups are explored, such as gender and agerelated differences. Results: Respondents rated the items’ importance as high and the quota of incomplete responses was not systematic. Two items were removed from the inventory because of low mean or a high rate of “don’t know”-responses. EFA produced a six-factor solution grouping items into match-related factors, repressive measures, fans’ delinquent behaviour, intra-group behaviour, communication and control and inter-group factors. The item “fans consume alcohol” could not be ordered into any category but was retained since literature accentuates this factor’s influence on fan violence. Analyses examining possible differences between groups are underway. Discussion: Results exploring the adequacy of this inventory assessing defining criteria of CIs in football are promising and thus further evaluative investigation is recommended. This inventory can be used in two ways: as a standardised instrument of assessment for experts evaluating specific CIs and as an instrument for exploring differences in perception and assessment of a CI e.g. gender and age differences, differences between interest groups and stakeholders. References: Bundesamt für Polizei. (2015). Jahresbericht 2014. Kriminalitätsbekämpfung Bund. Lage, Massnahmen und Mittel [Electronic Version]. Drury, J., & Reicher, S. (2000). Collective action and psychological change. The emergence of new social identities. British Journal of Social Psychology, 39, 579-604. Hylander, I., & Guvå, G. (2010). Misunderstanding of out-group behaviour: Different interpretations of the same crowd events among police officers and demonstrators. Nordic Psychology, 62, 25-47. Schumacher-Dimech, A., Brechbühl, A. &, Seiler, R. (2016). Dynamics of critical incidents with potentially violent outcomes involving ultra fans: an explorative study. Sport in Society. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/17430437.2015.1133597

An Experimental Study of Complex-Offer Auctions: Payment Cost Minimization vs. Offer Cost Minimization

A Payment Cost Minimization (PCM) auction has been proposed as an alternative to the Offer Cost Minimization (OCM) auction to be used in wholesale electric power markets with the intention to lower the procurement cost of electricity. Efficiency concerns about this proposal have relied on the assumption of true production cost revelation. Using an experimental approach, I compare the two auctions, strictly controlling for the level of unilateral market power. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices at which they are willing to sell, but also the start-up fees that are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. I find that both auctions result in start-up fees that are significantly higher than the start-up costs. Overall, the two auctions perform similarly in terms of procurement cost and efficiency. Surprisingly, I do not find a substantial difference between less market power and more market power designs. Both designs result in similar inefficiencies and equally higher procurement costs over the competitive prediction. The PCM auction tends to have lower price volatility than the OCM auction when the market power is minimal but this property vanishes in the designs with market power. These findings lead me to conclude that both the PCM and the OCM auctions do not belong to the class of truth revealing mechanisms and do not easily elicit competitive behavior.

SUPERFUND: AN ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTATION FAILURE (CERCLA, HEALTH LAW POLICY)

In December, 1980, following increasing congressional and constituent-interest in problems associated with hazardous waste, the Comprehensive Environmental Recovery, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) was passed. During its development, the legislative initiative was seriously compromised which resulted in a less exhaustive approach than was formerly sought. Still, CERCLA (Superfund) which established, among other things, authority to clean up abandoned waste dumps and to respond to emergencies caused by releases of hazardous substances was welcomed by many as an important initial law critical to the cleanup of the nation's hazardous waste. Expectations raised by passage of this bill were tragically unmet. By the end of four years, only six sites had been declared by the EPA as cleaned. Seemingly, even those determinations were liberal; of the six sites, two were identified subsequently as requiring further cleanup.^ This analysis is focused upon the implementation failure of the Superfund. In light of that focus, discussion encompasses development of linkages between flaws in the legislative language and foreclosure of chances for implementation success. Specification of such linkages is achieved through examination of the legislative initiative, identification of its flaws and characterization of attendant deficits in implementation ability. Subsequent analysis is addressed to how such legislative frailities might have been avoided and to attendant regulatory weaknesses which have contributed to implementation failure. Each of these analyses are accomplished through application of an expanded approach to the backward mapping analytic technique as presented by Elmore. Results and recommendations follow.^ Consideration is devoted to a variety of regulatory issues as well as to those pertinent to legislative and implementation analysis. Problems in assessing legal liability associated with hazardous waste management are presented, as is a detailed review of the legislative development of Superfund, and its initial implementation by Gorsuch's EPA. ^

AN ILLNESS-DEATH PROCESS WITH TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATES

A general model for the illness-death stochastic process with covariates has been developed for the analysis of survival data. This model incorporates important baseline and time-dependent covariates to make proper adjustment for the transition probabilities and survival probabilities. The follow-up period is subdivided into small intervals and a constant hazard is assumed for each interval. An approximation formula is derived to estimate the transition parameters when the exact transition time is unknown.^ The method developed is illustrated by using data from a study on the prevention of the recurrence of a myocardial infarction and subsequent mortality, the Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This method provides an analytical approach which simultaneously includes provision for both fatal and nonfatal events in the model. According to this analysis, the effectiveness of the treatment can be compared between the Placebo and Propranolol treatment groups with respect to fatal and nonfatal events. ^

Mean dynamic topography and oceanographic parameters estimated from an inverse model and satellite geodesy, with link to model result in one single NetCDF file (392 MB), including the inverse data error covariance

Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

Shower approach in the simulation of ion scattering from solids

An efficient approach for the simulation of ion scattering from solids is proposed. For every encountered atom, we take multiple samples of its thermal displacements among those which result in scattering with high probability to finally reach the detector. As a result, the detector is illuminated by intensive “showers,” where each event of detection must be weighted according to the actual probability of the atom displacement. The computational cost of such simulation is orders of magnitude lower than in the direct approach, and a comprehensive analysis of multiple and plural scattering effects becomes possible. We use this method for two purposes. First, the accuracy of the approximate approaches, developed mainly for ion-beam structural analysis, is verified. Second, the possibility to reproduce a wide class of experimental conditions is used to analyze some basic features of ion-solid collisions: the role of double violent collisions in low-energy ion scattering; the origin of the “surface peak” in scattering from amorphous samples; the low-energy tail in the energy spectra of scattered medium-energy ions due to plural scattering; and the degradation of blocking patterns in two-dimensional angular distributions with increasing depth of scattering. As an example of simulation for ions of MeV energies, we verify the time reversibility for channeling and blocking of 1-MeV protons in a W crystal. The possibilities of analysis that our approach offers may be very useful for various applications, in particular, for structural analysis with atomic resolution.

Relevance of motion-related assessment metrics in laparoscopic surgery

INTRODUCTION: Motion metrics have become an important source of information when addressing the assessment of surgical expertise. However, their direct relationship with the different surgical skills has not been fully explored. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relevance of motion-related metrics in the evaluation processes of basic psychomotor laparoscopic skills, as well as their correlation with the different abilities sought to measure. METHODS: A framework for task definition and metric analysis is proposed. An explorative survey was first conducted with a board of experts to identify metrics to assess basic psychomotor skills. Based on the output of that survey, three novel tasks for surgical assessment were designed. Face and construct validation study was performed, with focus on motion-related metrics. Tasks were performed by 42 participants (16 novices, 22 residents and 4 experts). Movements of the laparoscopic instruments were registered with the TrEndo tracking system and analyzed. RESULTS: Time, path length and depth showed construct validity for all three tasks. Motion smoothness and idle time also showed validity for tasks involving bi-manual coordination and tasks requiring a more tactical approach respectively. Additionally, motion smoothness and average speed showed a high internal consistency, proving them to be the most task-independent of all the metrics analyzed. CONCLUSION: Motion metrics are complementary and valid for assessing basic psychomotor skills, and their relevance depends on the skill being evaluated. A larger clinical implementation, combined with quality performance information, will give more insight on the relevance of the results shown in this study.

A new approach to fuzzy estimation of Takagi-Sugeno model and its applications to optimal control for nonlinear systems

An efficient approach is presented to improve the local and global approximation and modelling capability of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy. The main problem is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the use of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last two decades in the stability, controller design and are popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. A simple approach with few computational effort, based on the well known parameters' weighting method is suggested for tuning T-S parameters to improve the choice of the performance index and minimize it. A global fuzzy controller (FC) based Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. Illustrative examples of an inverted pendulum and Van der Pol system are chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method and the high accuracy obtained in approximating nonlinear and unstable systems locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity and generality of the algorithm.