Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Reconciling History and International Law: Territorial and Maritime Claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea

High-ranking Chinese military officials are often quoted in international media as stating that China cannot afford to lose even an inch of Chinese territory, as this territory has been passed down from Chinese ancestors. Such statements are not new in Chinese politics, but recently this narrative has made an important transition. While previously limited to disputes over land borders, such rhetoric is now routinely applied to disputes involving islands and maritime borders. China is increasingly oriented toward its maritime borders and seems unwilling to compromise on delimitation disputes, a transition mirrored by many states across the globe. In a similar vein, scholarship has found that territorial disputes are particularly intractable and volatile when compared with other types of disputes, and a large body of research has grappled with producing systematic knowledge of territorial conflict. Yet in this wide body of literature, an important question has remained largely unanswered - how do states determine which geographical areas will be included in their territorial and maritime claims? In other words, if nations are willing to fight and die for an inch of national territory, how do governments draw the boundaries of the nation? This dissertation uses in-depth case studies of some of the most prominent territorial and maritime disputes in East Asia to argue that domestic political processes play a dominant and previously under-explored role in both shaping claims and determining the nature of territorial and maritime disputes. China and Taiwan are particularly well suited for this type of investigation, as they are separate claimants in multiple disputes, yet they both draw upon the same historical record when establishing and justifying their claims. Leveraging fieldwork in Taiwan, China, and the US, this dissertation includes in-depth case studies of China’s and Taiwan’s respective claims in both the South China Sea and East China Sea disputes. Evidence from this dissertation indicates that officials in both China and Taiwan have struggled with how to reconcile history and international law when establishing their claims, and that this struggle has introduced ambiguity into China's and Taiwan's claims. Amid this process, domestic political dynamics have played a dominant role in shaping the options available and the potential for claims to change in the future. In Taiwan’s democratic system, where national identity is highly contested through party politics, opinions vary along a broad spectrum as to the proper borders of the nation, and there is considerable evidence that Taiwan’s claims may change in the near future. In contrast, within China’s single-party authoritarian political system, where nationalism is source of regime legitimacy, views on the proper interpretation of China’s boundaries do vary, but along a much more narrow range. In the dissertation’s final chapter, additional cases, such as South Korea’s position on Dokdo and Indonesia’s approach to the defense of Natuna are used as points of comparison to further clarify theoretical findings.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

STRESS AND INTERNATIONAL ENTREPRENEURHSIP: The dark side of international entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship attracts people with high job satisfaction and financial independence. Unfortunately, being deceived by this image, people do not pay attention to side effects of entrepreneurship. This ignorance usually turns into devastating results for entrepreneur’s health and venture performance. Therefore, it is required to seek ways to avoid these situations. The interest of the study lies in understanding of stress influence on international entrepreneurs by considering stress as a negative side effect of international entrepreneurship. To cover the concept of entrepreneurial stress completely, the study was divided into three section presented by following research questions: 1. What are the antecedents of entrepreneurial stress? 2. What are the consequences of entrepreneurial stress? 3. What coping strategies are applied to address entrepreneurial stress? Systematic literature review has been chosen as scientific approach to answer above questions due to the reason that it enables to minimise inconsistencies of both concepts of international entrepreneurship and stress. This method has afforded an opportunity to distinguish such stress causes as role conflict, overload, and ambiguity. Additionally, the study has covered the notion of stress moderators. The author argues that entrepreneurial traits, venture environment, and social support can have influence on degree of stress perception. Further, it has been proven that unaddressed stress could lead to reduction of entrepreneur’s psychological and physiological health. It should be taken into consideration that degree of both job satisfaction and performance would depend on the level of perceived stress. The last part of study emphasises the coping strategies. The author argues that it is important for an international entrepreneur to comprehend his or her and others’ emotions in order to overcome negative consequences of stress. In addition, the author suggests that an international entrepreneur needs to practise job sharing to reduce the amount of work to be completed. Moreover, it is believed that job sharing can help to overcome work-family conflict that prevails among entrepreneurs. The author anticipates that results of study can be beneficial for entrepreneurs who aim to achieve great results.

Management accounting and supply chains: actions, concerns, and networks

What does this thesis do? This thesis uses Actor-Network Theory (ANT) to examine how a UK retailer’s organization and strategy, and, in turn, its form of management accounting was shaped by its supply chain. The thesis does this by reporting on four related themes in the form of four inter-connected essays. The first essay undertakes a state-of-the-art review of the literature. It examines how accounting issues within supply chains permeate ‘matters of concern’. In accordance with this idea of ANT, the essay illustrates how issues emerged, controversies developed, and matters evolved through an actor-network of accounting researchers within the supply chain domain. This leads on to the second essay, which exemplifies the nature of the UK’s retailing industry within which the supply chain case organization emerged and developed. The purposes of the essay are twofold: to introduce the contextual ramifications of the case organization; and to illustrate the emergence of a new market logic, which led to the creation of a global supply chain and a new form of management accounting therein. The third essay reports on a qualitative case study. It analyses the dualistic relation between ostensive and performative aspects of supply chain strategy, reveals how accounting numbers act as an obligatory passage point within this dualism, and makes a contribution to the ANT debate around the issue of whether and how a dualism between ostensive and performative aspects exists. The final essay reports on another case analysis of institutionalizing a heterarchical form of management accounting: a distributed form of intelligence that penetrates through lateral accountable relations. The analysis reveals a new form of management accounting characterised by ambiguity; it emphasizes the possibilities of compromises and negotiations, and it thus contributes to knowledge by combining an aspect of ANT with heterarchical tendencies in the world of contemporary organizations. Finally, the thesis concludes that it is the supply chain that organises today’s neoliberal capitalism; and it is management accounting that unites both human and non-human actors within such supply chains, despite that form of management accounting being ambiguous. The thesis comprises the introduction, these four essays, and the conclusion.

Analiza terminów „stosunek społeczny” a „stosunek prawny”

Analysis of terms ‘social relationship’ and ‘legal relationship’ in the literature of legal theory and legal philosophy encounters many difficulties especially because of the ambiguity of such terms as ‘law’, ‘positive (statutory) law’, ‘rule’, ‘legal rule’, ‘norm’ and ‘legal norm’. Insight into the mentioned above literature points out that particularly the former pair of these notions have been so far wrongly considered as equivalent. It does not result a correct description of the relationship between different normative social systems such as statutory (positive) law, morality, religion and customs. Next it translates into a numbers of disputes about the content of positive law both in law-making’ and law-applying’s decisions.

Teolog fundamentalny wobec ataku Przypadku, Nieokreśloności, Prawdopodobieństwa, Dwuznaczności, Wieloznaczności?

Postmodernizm prezentuje postawę akceptacji Nieładu, Chaosu i Przypadku. Czy istnieje moż- liwość dialogu z taką postawą? Postmodernizm powstaje jako bunt na pograniczu filozofii i estetyki. Kontestuje zastany Ład. Sprzeciwia się kartezjańskiemu Cogito ergo sum oraz podziałowi na res cogitans i res extensa. Jest to ruch kulturowy, który nie ma jeszcze swojego ostatecznego wyrazu. Jest on ciągle postrzegany jako proces przechodzenia od starego do nowego Ładu. Taki brak dookreślenia budzi niepokój i sprzeciw. Teologia fundamentalna jest badaniem granic i dialogu. Stoi na progu, więc ma obowiązek rozeznać ludzki niepokój w akceptacji otaczającego świata. Musimy zapytać, dlaczego człowiek akceptuje ten Nieład?

Multi-Agent Simulation and Management Practices

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), one way of using intelligent agents, carries great potential for progressing our understanding of management practices and how they link to retail performance. We have developed simulation models based on research by a multi-disciplinary team of economists, work psychologists and computer scientists. We will discuss our experiences of implementing these concepts working with a well-known retail department store. There is no doubt that management practices are linked to the performance of an organisation (Reynolds et al., 2005; Wall & Wood, 2005). Best practices have been developed, but when it comes down to the actual application of these guidelines considerable ambiguity remains regarding their effectiveness within particular contexts (Siebers et al., forthcoming a). Most Operational Research (OR) methods can only be used as analysis tools once management practices have been implemented. Often they are not very useful for giving answers to speculative ‘what-if’ questions, particularly when one is interested in the development of the system over time rather than just the state of the system at a certain point in time. Simulation can be used to analyse the operation of dynamic and stochastic systems. ABS is particularly useful when complex interactions between system entities exist, such as autonomous decision making or negotiation. In an ABS model the researcher explicitly describes the decision process of simulated actors at the micro level. Structures emerge at the macro level as a result of the actions of the agents and their interactions with other agents and the environment. We will show how ABS experiments can deal with testing and optimising management practices such as training, empowerment or teamwork. Hence, questions such as “will staff setting their own break times improve performance?” can be investigated.

Leader Based Cyclic Pursuit

In this work a system of autonomous agents engaged in cyclic pursuit (under constant bearing (CB) strategy) is considered, for which one informed agent (the leader) also senses and responds to a stationary beacon. Building on the framework proposed in a previous work on beacon-referenced cyclic pursuit, necessary and suffi- cient conditions for the existence of circling equilibria in a system with one informed agent are derived, with discussion of stability and performance. In a physical testbed, the leader (robot) is equipped with a sound sensing apparatus composed of a real time embedded system, estimating direction of arrival of sound by an Interaural Level and Phase Difference Algorithm, using empirically determined phase and level signatures, and breaking front-back ambiguity with appropriate sensor placement. Furthermore a simple framework for implementing and evaluating the performance of control laws with the Robot Operating System (ROS) is proposed, demonstrated, and discussed.

Orientacje zawodowe młodzieży akademickiej będącej w okresie tranzycji z edukacji na rynek pracy

The modern world, which is characterized by diversity, uncertainty and ambiguity, affects the functioning of the younger generation. Young people experience a variety of problems associated with entering into adulthood. Being on the stage “between” youth and adulthood requires countless choices. The functioning of youth is still an interesting cognitive topic, worthy of scientific knowledge, therefore, the article seeks to answer the question: What is the professional orientation of contemporary university students? The article thesis consists of two parts. The first part has a theoretical character. It deals with issues of professional orientation. The second part of the article is an empirical analysis and attempt to answer the research question: What are the professional orientations of students?

Essays in corporate finance

China has been growing rapidly over the last decades. The private sector is the driving force of this growth. This thesis focuses on firm-level investment and cash holdings in China, and the chapters are structured around the following issues. 1. Why do private firms grow so fast when they are more financially constrained? In Chapter 3, we use a panel of over 600,000 firms of different ownership types from 1998 to 2007 to find the link between investment opportunities and financial constraints. The main finding indicates that private firms, which are more likely to be financially constrained, have high investment-investment opportunity sensitivity. Furthermore, this sensitivity is relatively lower for state-owned firms in China. This shows that constrained firms value investment opportunities more than unconstrained firms. To better measure investment opportunities, we attempt to improve the Q model by considering supply and demand sides simultaneously. When we capture q from the supply side and the demand side, we find that various types of firms respond differently towards different opportunity shocks. 2. In China, there are many firms whose cash flow is far greater than their fixed capital investment. Why is their investment still sensitive to cash flow? To explain this, in Chapter 4, we attempt to introduce a new channel to find how cash flow affects firm-level investment. We use a dynamic structural model and take uncertainty and ambiguity aversion into consideration. We find that uncertainty and ambiguity aversion will make investment less sensitive to investment opportunities. However, investment-cash flow sensitivity will increase when uncertainty is high. This suggests that investment cash flow sensitivities could still be high even when the firms are not financially constrained. 3. Why do firms in China hold so much cash? How can managers’ confidence affect corporate cash holdings? In Chapter 5, we analyse corporate cash holdings in China. Firms hold cash for precautionary reasons, to hedge frictions such as financing constraints and uncertainty. In addition, firms may act differently if they are confident or not. In order to determine how confidence shocks affect precautionary savings, we develop a dynamic model taking financing constraints, uncertainty, adjustment costs and confidence shocks into consideration. We find that without confidence shocks, firms will save money in bad times and invest in good times to maximise their value. However, if managers lose their confidence, they tend to save money in good times to use in bad times, to hedge risks and financing constraint problems. This can help explain why people find different results on the cash flow sensitivity of cash. Empirically, we use a panel of Chinese listed firms. The results show that firms in China save more money in good times, and the confidence shock channel can significantly affect firms’ cash holdings policy.

The role of context in image annotation and recommendation

With the rise of smart phones, lifelogging devices (e.g. Google Glass) and popularity of image sharing websites (e.g. Flickr), users are capturing and sharing every aspect of their life online producing a wealth of visual content. Of these uploaded images, the majority are poorly annotated or exist in complete semantic isolation making the process of building retrieval systems difficult as one must firstly understand the meaning of an image in order to retrieve it. To alleviate this problem, many image sharing websites offer manual annotation tools which allow the user to “tag” their photos, however, these techniques are laborious and as a result have been poorly adopted; Sigurbjörnsson and van Zwol (2008) showed that 64% of images uploaded to Flickr are annotated with < 4 tags. Due to this, an entire body of research has focused on the automatic annotation of images (Hanbury, 2008; Smeulders et al., 2000; Zhang et al., 2012a) where one attempts to bridge the semantic gap between an image’s appearance and meaning e.g. the objects present. Despite two decades of research the semantic gap still largely exists and as a result automatic annotation models often offer unsatisfactory performance for industrial implementation. Further, these techniques can only annotate what they see, thus ignoring the “bigger picture” surrounding an image (e.g. its location, the event, the people present etc). Much work has therefore focused on building photo tag recommendation (PTR) methods which aid the user in the annotation process by suggesting tags related to those already present. These works have mainly focused on computing relationships between tags based on historical images e.g. that NY and timessquare co-exist in many images and are therefore highly correlated. However, tags are inherently noisy, sparse and ill-defined often resulting in poor PTR accuracy e.g. does NY refer to New York or New Year? This thesis proposes the exploitation of an image’s context which, unlike textual evidences, is always present, in order to alleviate this ambiguity in the tag recommendation process. Specifically we exploit the “what, who, where, when and how” of the image capture process in order to complement textual evidences in various photo tag recommendation and retrieval scenarios. In part II, we combine text, content-based (e.g. # of faces present) and contextual (e.g. day-of-the-week taken) signals for tag recommendation purposes, achieving up to a 75% improvement to precision@5 in comparison to a text-only TF-IDF baseline. We then consider external knowledge sources (i.e. Wikipedia & Twitter) as an alternative to (slower moving) Flickr in order to build recommendation models on, showing that similar accuracy could be achieved on these faster moving, yet entirely textual, datasets. In part II, we also highlight the merits of diversifying tag recommendation lists before discussing at length various problems with existing automatic image annotation and photo tag recommendation evaluation collections. In part III, we propose three new image retrieval scenarios, namely “visual event summarisation”, “image popularity prediction” and “lifelog summarisation”. In the first scenario, we attempt to produce a rank of relevant and diverse images for various news events by (i) removing irrelevant images such memes and visual duplicates (ii) before semantically clustering images based on the tweets in which they were originally posted. Using this approach, we were able to achieve over 50% precision for images in the top 5 ranks. In the second retrieval scenario, we show that by combining contextual and content-based features from images, we are able to predict if it will become “popular” (or not) with 74% accuracy, using an SVM classifier. Finally, in chapter 9 we employ blur detection and perceptual-hash clustering in order to remove noisy images from lifelogs, before combining visual and geo-temporal signals in order to capture a user’s “key moments” within their day. We believe that the results of this thesis show an important step towards building effective image retrieval models when there lacks sufficient textual content (i.e. a cold start).

La Documentación de Fuentes Electrónicas Tomadas de Internet

Con el fin de responder a las necesidades de escritores, profesores, estudiantes y especialistas que utilizan el estilo de documentación del MLA, varias organizaciones profesionales se encuentran en el proceso de establecer convenciones que demuestren ser eficientes y eviten la ambigüedad a la hora de citar referencias de fuentes que provienen de INTERNET.Las guías y modelos que se presentan en este artículo están basadas en la obra de Janice Walker "MLA International Bibliography of Books Languages and Literature Style Citations of Electronic Sources", aprobada por la Alliance for Computers and Writing, revisada y recomendada por Andrew Harnack y Gene Kleppinger en "Beyond the MLA Handbook: Documenting Sources on the INTERNET".

A Belief rule-based environmental responsibility assessment system for small and medium-sized enterprises

Various environmental management systems, standards and tools are being created to assist companies to become more environmental friendly. However, not all the enterprises have adopted environmental policies in the same scale and range. Additionally, there is no existing guide to help them determine their level of environmental responsibility and subsequently, provide support to enable them to move forward towards environmental responsibility excellence. This research proposes the use of a Belief Rule-Based approach to assess an enterprise’s level commitment to environmental issues. The Environmental Responsibility BRB assessment system has been developed for this research. Participating companies will have to complete a structured questionnaire. An automated analysis of their responses (using the Belief Rule-Based approach) will determine their environmental responsibility level. This is followed by a recommendation on how to progress to the next level. The recommended best practices will help promote understanding, increase awareness, and make the organization greener. BRB systems consist of two parts: Knowledge Base and Inference Engine. The knowledge base in this research is constructed after an in-depth literature review, critical analyses of existing environmental performance assessment models and primarily guided by the EU Draft Background Report on "Best Environmental Management Practice in the Telecommunications and ICT Services Sector". The reasoning algorithm of a selected Drools JBoss BRB inference engine is forward chaining, where an inference starts iteratively searching for a pattern-match of the input and if-then clause. However, the forward chaining mechanism is not equipped with uncertainty handling. Therefore, a decision is made to deploy an evidential reasoning and forward chaining with a hybrid knowledge representation inference scheme to accommodate imprecision, ambiguity and fuzzy types of uncertainties. It is believed that such a system generates well balanced, sensible and Green ICT readiness adapted results, to help enterprises focus on making improvements on more sustainable business operations.

Stress ocupacional e satisfação laboral no atendimento ao público

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para obtenção de grau de Mestre na especialidade de Psicologia Social e das Organizações.