917 resultados para Time-varying covariance matrices


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How speech is separated perceptually from other speech remains poorly understood. In a series of experiments, perceptual organisation was probed by presenting three-formant (F1+F2+F3) analogues of target sentences dichotically, together with a competitor for F2 (F2C), or for F2+F3, which listeners must reject to optimise recognition. To control for energetic masking, the competitor was always presented in the opposite ear to the corresponding target formant(s). Sine-wave speech was used initially, and different versions of F2C were derived from F2 using separate manipulations of its amplitude and frequency contours. F2Cs with time-varying frequency contours were highly effective competitors, whatever their amplitude characteristics, whereas constant-frequency F2Cs were ineffective. Subsequent studies used synthetic-formant speech to explore the effects of manipulating the rate and depth of formant-frequency change in the competitor. Competitor efficacy was not tuned to the rate of formant-frequency variation in the target sentences; rather, the reduction in intelligibility increased with competitor rate relative to the rate for the target sentences. Therefore, differences in speech rate may not be a useful cue for separating the speech of concurrent talkers. Effects of competitors whose depth of formant-frequency variation was scaled by a range of factors were explored using competitors derived either by inverting the frequency contour of F2 about its geometric mean (plausibly speech-like pattern) or by using a regular and arbitrary frequency contour (triangle wave, not plausibly speech-like) matched to the average rate and depth of variation for the inverted F2C. Competitor efficacy depended on the overall depth of frequency variation, not depth relative to that for the other formants. Furthermore, the triangle-wave competitors were as effective as their more speech-like counterparts. Overall, the results suggest that formant-frequency variation is critical for the across-frequency grouping of formants but that this grouping does not depend on speech-specific constraints.

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Limited energy is a big challenge for large scale wireless sensor networks (WSN). Previous research works show that modulation scaling is an efficient technique to reduce energy consumption. However, the impacts of using modulation scaling on packet delivery latency and loss are not considered, which may have adverse effects on the application qualities. In this paper, we study this problem and propose control schemes to minimize energy consumption while ensuring application qualities. We first analyze the relationships of modulation scaling and energy consumption, end-to-end delivery latency and packet loss ratio. With the analytical model, we develop a centralized control scheme to adaptively adjust the modulation levels, in order to minimize energy consumption and ensure the application qualities. To improve the scalability of the centralized control scheme, we also propose a distributed control scheme. In this scheme, the sink will send the differences between the required and measured application qualities to the sensors. The sensors will update their modulation levels with the local information and feedback from the sink. Experimental results show the effectiveness of energy saving and QoS guarantee of the control schemes. The control schemes can adapt efficiently to the time-varying requirements on application qualities. Copyright © 2005 The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers.

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This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.

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Distributed network utility maximization (NUM) is receiving increasing interests for cross-layer optimization problems in multihop wireless networks. Traditional distributed NUM algorithms rely heavily on feedback information between different network elements, such as traffic sources and routers. Because of the distinct features of multihop wireless networks such as time-varying channels and dynamic network topology, the feedback information is usually inaccurate, which represents as a major obstacle for distributed NUM application to wireless networks. The questions to be answered include if distributed NUM algorithm can converge with inaccurate feedback and how to design effective distributed NUM algorithm for wireless networks. In this paper, we first use the infinitesimal perturbation analysis technique to provide an unbiased gradient estimation on the aggregate rate of traffic sources at the routers based on locally available information. On the basis of that, we propose a stochastic approximation algorithm to solve the distributed NUM problem with inaccurate feedback. We then prove that the proposed algorithm can converge to the optimum solution of distributed NUM with perfect feedback under certain conditions. The proposed algorithm is applied to the joint rate and media access control problem for wireless networks. Numerical results demonstrate the convergence of the proposed algorithm. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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How speech is separated perceptually from other speech remains poorly understood. In a series of experiments, perceptual organisation was probed by presenting three-formant (F1+F2+F3) analogues of target sentences dichotically, together with a competitor for F2 (F2C), or for F2+F3, which listeners must reject to optimise recognition. To control for energetic masking, the competitor was always presented in the opposite ear to the corresponding target formant(s). Sine-wave speech was used initially, and different versions of F2C were derived from F2 using separate manipulations of its amplitude and frequency contours. F2Cs with time-varying frequency contours were highly effective competitors, whatever their amplitude characteristics, whereas constant-frequency F2Cs were ineffective. Subsequent studies used synthetic-formant speech to explore the effects of manipulating the rate and depth of formant-frequency change in the competitor. Competitor efficacy was not tuned to the rate of formant-frequency variation in the target sentences; rather, the reduction in intelligibility increased with competitor rate relative to the rate for the target sentences. Therefore, differences in speech rate may not be a useful cue for separating the speech of concurrent talkers. Effects of competitors whose depth of formant-frequency variation was scaled by a range of factors were explored using competitors derived either by inverting the frequency contour of F2 about its geometric mean (plausibly speech-like pattern) or by using a regular and arbitrary frequency contour (triangle wave, not plausibly speech-like) matched to the average rate and depth of variation for the inverted F2C. Competitor efficacy depended on the overall depth of frequency variation, not depth relative to that for the other formants. Furthermore, the triangle-wave competitors were as effective as their more speech-like counterparts. Overall, the results suggest that formant-frequency variation is critical for the across-frequency grouping of formants but that this grouping does not depend on speech-specific constraints. © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013.

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This empirical study examines the Pricing-To-Market (PTM) behaviour of 20 UK export sectors. Using both Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) estimation methods, we find evidence of PTM that is accompanied by strong conditional volatility and weak asymmetry effects. The PTM estimates suggest that when the currency of exporters appreciates in the current period, exporters pass-on between 31% and 94% of the Foreign Exchange (FX) rate increase to importers. However, both export price changes and producers' prices are sluggish, perhaps being driven by coordination failure and menu driven costs, amongst others. Furthermore, export prices contain strong time varying effects which impact on PTM strategy. Exporters do not typically appear to put much more weight on negative news of (say) an FX rate appreciation compared to positive news of an FX rate depreciation. Much depends on the export sector. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

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Recent research suggests that the ability of an extraneous formant to impair intelligibility depends on the variation of its frequency contour. This idea was explored using a method that ensures interference cannot occur through energetic masking. Three-formant (F1+F2+F3) analogues of natural sentences were synthesized using a monotonous periodic source. Target formants were presented monaurally, with the target ear assigned randomly on each trial. A competitor for F2 (F2C) was presented contralaterally; listeners must reject F2C to optimize recognition. In experiment 1, F2Cs with various frequency and amplitude contours were used. F2Cs with time-varying frequency contours were effective competitors; constant-frequency F2Cs had far less impact. To a lesser extent, amplitude contour also influenced competitor impact; this effect was additive. In experiment 2, F2Cs were created by inverting the F2 frequency contour about its geometric mean and varying its depth of variation over a range from constant to twice the original (0%-200%). The impact on intelligibility was least for constant F2Cs and increased up to ∼100% depth, but little thereafter. The effect of an extraneous formant depends primarily on its frequency contour; interference increases as the depth of variation is increased until the range exceeds that typical for F2 in natural speech.

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Recent research suggests that the ability of an extraneous formant to impair intelligibility depends on the variation of its frequency contour. This idea was explored using a method that ensures interference occurs only through informational masking. Three-formant analogues of sentences were synthesized using a monotonous periodic source (F0 = 140 Hz). Target formants were presented monaurally; the target ear was assigned randomly on each trial. A competitor for F2 (F2C) was presented contralaterally; listeners must reject F2C to optimize recognition. In experiment 1, F2Cs with various frequency and amplitude contours were used. F2Cs with time-varying frequency contours were effective competitors; constant-frequency F2Cs had far less impact. Amplitude contour also influenced competitor impact; this effect was additive. In experiment 2, F2Cs were created by inverting the F2 frequency contour about its geometric mean and varying its depth of variation over a range from constant to twice the original (0–200%). The impact on intelligibility was least for constant F2Cs and increased up to ~100% depth, but little thereafter. The effect of an extraneous formant depends primarily on its frequency contour; interference increases as the depth of variation is increased until the range exceeds that typical for F2 in natural speech.

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Fermentation processes as objects of modelling and high-quality control are characterized with interdependence and time-varying of process variables that lead to non-linear models with a very complex structure. This is why the conventional optimization methods cannot lead to a satisfied solution. As an alternative, genetic algorithms, like the stochastic global optimization method, can be applied to overcome these limitations. The application of genetic algorithms is a precondition for robustness and reaching of a global minimum that makes them eligible and more workable for parameter identification of fermentation models. Different types of genetic algorithms, namely simple, modified and multi-population ones, have been applied and compared for estimation of nonlinear dynamic model parameters of fed-batch cultivation of S. cerevisiae.

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Magnetoencephalographic (MEG) signals, like electroencephalographic (EEG) measures, are the direct extracranial manifestations of neuronal activation. The two techniques can detect time-varying changes in electromagnetic activity with a sub-millisecond time resolution. Extra-cranial electromagnetic measures are the cornerstone of the non-invasive diagnostic armamentarium in patients with epilepsy. Their extremely high temporal resolution – comparable to intracranial recordings – is the basis for a precise definition of onset and propagation of ictal and interictal abnormalities. Given the cost of the infrastructure and equipment, MEG has yet to develop into a routinely applicable diagnostic tool in clinical settings. However, in recent years, an increasing number of patients with epilepsy have been investigated – usually in the context of presurgical evaluation of refractory epilepsies – and initial encouraging results have been reported. We will briefly review the principles and the technology behind MEG and its contribution in the diagnostic work-up of patients with epilepsy.

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It is shown that an electromagnetic wave equation in time domain is reduced in paraxial approximation to an equation similar to the Schrodinger equation but in which the time and space variables play opposite roles. This equation has solutions in form of time-varying pulses with the Airy function as an envelope. The pulses are generated by a source point with an Airy time varying field and propagate in vacuum preserving their shape and magnitude. The motion is according to a quadratic law with the velocity changing from infinity at the source point to zero in infinity. These one-dimensional results are extended to the 3D+time case when a similar Airy-Bessel pulse is excited by the field at a plane aperture. The same behaviour of the pulses, the non-diffractive preservation and their deceleration, is found. © 2011 IEEE.

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Az 1970-es évek olajválságait követő stagflációs periódusok óta gyakorlatilag minden nagyobb áremelkedés alkalmával felerősödnek a kedvezőtlen makrogazdasági hatásokkal kapcsolatos félelmek, miközben a tapasztalat azt mutatja, hogy az importőröket egyre kevésbé érinti az olaj reálárának alakulása. A gyengülő hatások okaként Blanchard-Galí [2007] a gazdaságok hatékonyabb és rugalmasabb működését jelölte meg, míg Kilian [2010] szerint a 2000 utáni áremelkedést a kedvező világgazdasági környezet fűtötte, ami ellensúlyozta a magasabb ár okozta negatív folyamatokat. A tanulmány Kilian [2009] modelljének kiterjesztésével, időben változó paraméterű ökonometriai eljárással vizsgálja a két megközelítés összeegyeztethetőségét. Az eredmények a hipotézisek egymást kiegészítő kapcsolatára engednek következtetni, azaz a makrogazdasági következmények szempontjából nem maga az ár, hanem annak kiváltó okai lényegesek, ugyanakkor e mögöttes tényezők hatása az elmúlt évtizedekben folyamatosan változott. _____ Many economists argue that the stagflation periods of the 1970s were related to the two main oil crises. However, experience shows that these effects were eliminated over the decades, e. g. oil-importing economies enjoyed solid growth and low inflation when oil prices surged in the 2000s. Blanchard and Galí (2007) found that economies became more effective and elastic in handling high energy prices, while Kilian (2010) took as the main reason for the weakening macroeconomic effects of oil-price shocks the structural differences behind the price changes. The article sets out to test the compatibility of the two rival theories, using time-varying parameter models. The results show that both hypotheses can be correct concurrently: the structure of the change in price matters, but the impulse responses varied over time.

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Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. ^ Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. ^ Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. ^ Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption. ^

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Recent research has indicated that the pupil diameter (PD) in humans varies with their affective states. However, this signal has not been fully investigated for affective sensing purposes in human-computer interaction systems. This may be due to the dominant separate effect of the pupillary light reflex (PLR), which shrinks the pupil when light intensity increases. In this dissertation, an adaptive interference canceller (AIC) system using the H∞ time-varying (HITV) adaptive algorithm was developed to minimize the impact of the PLR on the measured pupil diameter signal. The modified pupil diameter (MPD) signal, obtained from the AIC was expected to reflect primarily the pupillary affective responses (PAR) of the subject. Additional manipulations of the AIC output resulted in a processed MPD (PMPD) signal, from which a classification feature, PMPDmean, was extracted. This feature was used to train and test a support vector machine (SVM), for the identification of stress states in the subject from whom the pupil diameter signal was recorded, achieving an accuracy rate of 77.78%. The advantages of affective recognition through the PD signal were verified by comparatively investigating the classification of stress and relaxation states through features derived from the simultaneously recorded galvanic skin response (GSR) and blood volume pulse (BVP) signals, with and without the PD feature. The discriminating potential of each individual feature extracted from GSR, BVP and PD was studied by analysis of its receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The ROC curve found for the PMPDmean feature encompassed the largest area (0.8546) of all the single-feature ROCs investigated. The encouraging results seen in affective sensing based on pupil diameter monitoring were obtained in spite of intermittent illumination increases purposely introduced during the experiments. Therefore, these results confirmed the benefits of using the AIC implementation with the HITV adaptive algorithm to isolate the PAR and the potential of using PD monitoring to sense the evolving affective states of a computer user.

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Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.