A Case of Framing Effects: The Elicitation of Time Preferences.

We compare three methods for the elicitation of time preferences in an experimental setting: the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak procedure (BDM); the second price auction; and the multiple price list format. The first two methods have been used rarely to elicit time preferences. All methods used are perfectly equivalent from a decision theoretic point of view, and they should induce the same ‘truthful’ revelation i dominant strategies. In spite of this, we find that framing does matter: the money discount rates elicited with the multiple price list tend to be higher than those elicited with the other two methods. In addition, our results shed some light on attitudes towards time, and they permit a broad classification of subjects depending on how the size of the elicited values varies with the time horizon.

Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

A first attempt of geographically-distributed Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM): mapping human time and energy throughput in metropolitan Barcelona

This study presents a first attempt to extend the “Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM)” approach to a spatial dimension using GIS techniques in the Metropolitan area of Barcelona. We use a combination of census and commercial databases along with a detailed land cover map to create a layer of Common Geographic Units that we populate with the local values of human time spent in different activities according to MuSIASEM hierarchical typology. In this way, we mapped the hours of available human time, in regards to the working hours spent in different locations, putting in evidence the gradients in spatial density between the residential location of workers (generating the work supply) and the places where the working hours are actually taking place. We found a strong three-modal pattern of clumps of areas with different combinations of values of time spent on household activities and on paid work. We also measured and mapped spatial segregation between these two activities and put forward the conjecture that this segregation increases with higher energy throughput, as the size of the functional units must be able to cope with the flow of exosomatic energy. Finally, we discuss the effectiveness of the approach by comparing our geographic representation of exosomatic throughput to the one issued from conventional methods.

A Modulated Closed Form solution for Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping - A thorough evaluation and comparison to iterative methods based on edge prior knowledge.

The aim of this study is to perform a thorough comparison of quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) techniques and their dependence on the assumptions made. The compared methodologies were: two iterative single orientation methodologies minimizing the l2, l1TV norm of the prior knowledge of the edges of the object, one over-determined multiple orientation method (COSMOS) and anewly proposed modulated closed-form solution (MCF). The performance of these methods was compared using a numerical phantom and in-vivo high resolution (0.65mm isotropic) brain data acquired at 7T using a new coil combination method. For all QSM methods, the relevant regularization and prior-knowledge parameters were systematically changed in order to evaluate the optimal reconstruction in the presence and absence of a ground truth. Additionally, the QSM contrast was compared to conventional gradient recalled echo (GRE) magnitude and R2* maps obtained from the same dataset. The QSM reconstruction results of the single orientation methods show comparable performance. The MCF method has the highest correlation (corrMCF=0.95, r(2)MCF =0.97) with the state of the art method (COSMOS) with additional advantage of extreme fast computation time. The l-curve method gave the visually most satisfactory balance between reduction of streaking artifacts and over-regularization with the latter being overemphasized when the using the COSMOS susceptibility maps as ground-truth. R2* and susceptibility maps, when calculated from the same datasets, although based on distinct features of the data, have a comparable ability to distinguish deep gray matter structures.

Real-time PCR for type-specific identification of herpes simplex in clinical samples: evaluation of type-specific results in the context of CNS diseases.

BACKGROUND: HSV-1 and HSV-2 cause CNS infections of dissimilar clinico-pathological characteristics with prognostic and therapeutic implications. OBJECTIVES: To validate a type-specific real-time PCR that uses MGB/LNA Taqman probes and to review the virologico-clinical data of 25 eligible patients with non-neonatal CNS infections. RESULTS: This real-time PCR was evaluated against conventional PCR (26 CSF and 20 quality controls), and LightCycler assay (51 mucocutaneous, 8 CSF and 32 quality controls) and culture/immunofluorescence (75 mucocutaneous) to assess typing with independent methods. Taqman real-time PCR detected 240 HSV genomes per ml CSF, a level appropriate for the management of patients, and provided unambiguous typing for the 104 positive (62 HSV-1 and 42 HSV-2) out the 160 independent clinical samples tested. HSV type diagnosed by Taqman real-time PCR predicted final diagnosis (meningitis versus encephalitis/meningoencephalitis, p<0.001) in 24/25 patients at time of presentation, in contrast to clinical evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Our real-time PCR, as a sensitive and specific means for type-specific HSV diagnosis, provided rapid prognostic information for patient management.

Quantitative comparison of reconstruction methods for intra-voxel fiber recovery from diffusion MRI.

Validation is arguably the bottleneck in the diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) community. This paper evaluates and compares 20 algorithms for recovering the local intra-voxel fiber structure from diffusion MRI data and is based on the results of the "HARDI reconstruction challenge" organized in the context of the "ISBI 2012" conference. Evaluated methods encompass a mixture of classical techniques well known in the literature such as diffusion tensor, Q-Ball and diffusion spectrum imaging, algorithms inspired by the recent theory of compressed sensing and also brand new approaches proposed for the first time at this contest. To quantitatively compare the methods under controlled conditions, two datasets with known ground-truth were synthetically generated and two main criteria were used to evaluate the quality of the reconstructions in every voxel: correct assessment of the number of fiber populations and angular accuracy in their orientation. This comparative study investigates the behavior of every algorithm with varying experimental conditions and highlights strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This information can be useful not only for enhancing current algorithms and develop the next generation of reconstruction methods, but also to assist physicians in the choice of the most adequate technique for their studies.

Decreasing population selection rates of resistance mutation K65R over time in HIV-1 patients receiving combination therapy including tenofovir.

OBJECTIVES: The use of tenofovir is highly associated with the emergence of mutation K65R, which confers broad resistance to nucleoside/nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), especially when tenofovir is combined with other NRTIs also selecting for K65R. Although recent HIV-1 treatment guidelines discouraging these combinations resulted in reduced K65R selection with tenofovir, updated information on the impact of currently recommended regimens on the population selection rate of K65R is presently lacking. METHODS: In this study, we evaluated changes over time in the selection rate of resistance mutation K65R in a large population of 2736 HIV-1-infected patients failing combination antiretroviral treatment between 2002 and 2010. RESULTS: The K65R resistance mutation was detected in 144 patients, a prevalence of 5.3%. A large majority of observed K65R cases were explained by the use of tenofovir, reflecting its wide use in clinical practice. However, changing patterns over time in NRTIs accompanying tenofovir resulted in a persistent decreasing probability of K65R selection by tenofovir-based therapy. The currently recommended NRTI combination tenofovir/emtricitabine was associated with a low probability of K65R emergence. For any given dual NRTI combination including tenofovir, higher selection rates of K65R were consistently observed with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor than with a protease inhibitor as the third agent. DISCUSSION: Our finding of a stable time trend of K65R despite elevated use of tenofovir illustrates increased potency of current HIV-1 therapy including tenofovir.

Optimal exponent heat balance and refined integral methods applied to Stefan problems

When using a polynomial approximating function the most contentious aspect of the Heat Balance Integral Method is the choice of power of the highest order term. In this paper we employ a method recently developed for thermal problems, where the exponent is determined during the solution process, to analyse Stefan problems. This is achieved by minimising an error function. The solution requires no knowledge of an exact solution and generally produces significantly better results than all previous HBI models. The method is illustrated by first applying it to standard thermal problems. A Stefan problem with an analytical solution is then discussed and results compared to the approximate solution. An ablation problem is also analysed and results compared against a numerical solution. In both examples the agreement is excellent. A Stefan problem where the boundary temperature increases exponentially is analysed. This highlights the difficulties that can be encountered with a time dependent boundary condition. Finally, melting with a time-dependent flux is briefly analysed without applying analytical or numerical results to assess the accuracy.

Rapid bacterial genome sequencing: methods and applications in clinical microbiology.

The recent advances in sequencing technologies have given all microbiology laboratories access to whole genome sequencing. Providing that tools for the automated analysis of sequence data and databases for associated meta-data are developed, whole genome sequencing will become a routine tool for large clinical microbiology laboratories. Indeed, the continuing reduction in sequencing costs and the shortening of the 'time to result' makes it an attractive strategy in both research and diagnostics. Here, we review how high-throughput sequencing is revolutionizing clinical microbiology and the promise that it still holds. We discuss major applications, which include: (i) identification of target DNA sequences and antigens to rapidly develop diagnostic tools; (ii) precise strain identification for epidemiological typing and pathogen monitoring during outbreaks; and (iii) investigation of strain properties, such as the presence of antibiotic resistance or virulence factors. In addition, recent developments in comparative metagenomics and single-cell sequencing offer the prospect of a better understanding of complex microbial communities at the global and individual levels, providing a new perspective for understanding host-pathogen interactions. Being a high-resolution tool, high-throughput sequencing will increasingly influence diagnostics, epidemiology, risk management, and patient care.

Trypanosoma cruzi: metacyclogenesis in vitro - I. Changes in the properties of metacyclic trypomastigotes maintained in the laboratory by different methods

In this work we have studied the modifications in the biological properties of Trypanosoma cruzi when the parasite is maintained for a long time in axenic culture. The studies were done with a clone from an avirulent strain (Dm30L) and a non-cloned virulent strain (EP) of T. cruzi. Both parasiteswere maintained, for at least three years, by successive triatomine/mouse alternate passage (control condition), or by serial passage in axenic medium (culture condition), or only in the mouse (mouse condition). The comparison between parasites of culture and control condition showed that metacyclogenesis capacity was reduced in the former and that the resulting metacyclics displayed an attenuatedvirulence. In order to compare the virulence of metacyclics from the urine of the insect vector, Rhodnius prolixus were infected by artificial feeding with parasites of the control or culture condition. After three triatomine/triatomine passages, there was observed an almost identical biological behavior for these parasites, hence indicating that the maintenance of T. cruzi for a long time in axenic culture affects the differentiation capacity and the virulence of the parasite. Additionally, it was demonstrated that it is possible to maintain T. cruzi exclusively through passages in the invertebrate host.

Time-Course In Vivo Trafficking Pattern and Effector Function of Donor-Specific Regulatory T Cells in Response to an Allograft.

Background: Experimental data have suggested that adoptive transfer of CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs), capable of controlling immune responses to specifi c auto- or alloantigens, could be used as a therapeutic strategy to promote specifi c tolerance in T-cell mediated diseases and in organ transplantation (Tx). However, before advocating the application of immunotherapy with Tregs in Tx, we need to improve our understanding of their in vivo homeostasis, traffi cking pattern and effector function in response to alloantigens. Methods : Donor-antigen specifi c murine Tregs were generated and characterized in vitro following our described protocols. Using an adoptive transfer and skin allotransplantation model, we have analyzed the in vivo expansion and homing of fl uorescent-labeled effector T cells (Teff) and Tregs, at different time-points after Tx, using fl ow-cytometry as well as fl uorescence microscopy techniques. Results: Tregs expressed CD62L, CCR7 and CD103 allowing their homing into lymphoid and non-lymphoid tissues (gut, skin) after intravenous injection. While hyporesponsive to TCR stimulation in vitro, transferred Tregs survived, migrated to secondary lymphoid organs and preferentially expanded within the allograft draining lymph nodes. Furthermore, Foxp3+ cells could be detected inside the allograft as early as day 3-5 after Tx. At a much later time-point (day 60 after Tx), graft-infi ltrating Foxp3+ cells were also detectable in tolerant recipients. When transferred alone, CD4+CD25- Teff cells expanded within secondary lymphoid organs and infi ltrated the allograft by day 3-5 after Tx. The co-transfer of Tregs limited the expansion of alloreactive Teff cells as well as their recruitment into the allograft. The promotion of graft survival observed in the presence of Tregs was in part mediated by the inhibition of the production of effector cytokines by CD4+CD25- T cells. Conclusion: Taken together, our results suggest that the suppression of allograft rejection and the induction of Tx tolerance are in part dependant on the alloantigendriven homing and expansion of Tregs. Thus, the appropriate localization of Tregs may be critical for their suppressive function in vivo.

Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for detection of adenovirus after T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation: viral load as a marker for invasive disease.

BACKGROUND: The value of adenovirus plasma DNA detection as an indicator for adenovirus disease is unknown in the context of T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation, of which adenovirus disease is an uncommon but serious complication. METHODS: Three groups of 62 T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplant recipients were selected and tested for adenovirus in plasma by polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Adenovirus was detected in 21 (87.5%) of 24 patients with proven adenovirus disease (group 1), in 4 (21%) of 19 patients who shed adenovirus (group 2), and in 1 (10.5%) of 19 uninfected control patients. The maximum viral load was significantly higher in group 1 (median maximum viral load, 6.3x10(6) copies/mL; range, 0 to 1.0x10(9) copies/mL) than in group 2 (median maximum viral load, 0 copies/mL; range, 0 to 1.7x10(8) copies/mL; P<.001) and in group 3 (median maximum viral load, 0 copies/mL; range 0-40 copies/mL; P<.001). All patients in group 2 who developed adenoviremia had symptoms compatible with adenovirus disease (i.e., possible disease). A minimal plasma viral load of 10(3) copies/mL was detected in all patients with proven or possible disease. Adenoviremia was detectable at a median of 19.5 days (range, 8-48 days) and 24 days (range, 9-41 days) before death for patients with proven and possible adenovirus disease, respectively. CONCLUSION: Sustained or high-level adenoviremia appears to be a specific and sensitive indicator of adenovirus disease after T cell-replete hematopoietic cell transplantation. In the context of low prevalence of adenovirus disease, the use of polymerase chain reaction of plasma specimens to detect virus might be a valuable tool to identify and treat patients at risk for viral invasive disease.

Magnetic resonance-guided, real-time targeted delivery and imaging of magnetocapsules immunoprotecting pancreatic islet cells.

In type I diabetes mellitus, islet transplantation provides a moment-to-moment fine regulation of insulin. Success rates vary widely, however, necessitating suitable methods to monitor islet delivery, engraftment and survival. Here magnetic resonance-trackable magnetocapsules have been used simultaneously to immunoprotect pancreatic beta-cells and to monitor, non-invasively in real-time, hepatic delivery and engraftment by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Magnetocapsules were detected as single capsules with an altered magnetic resonance appearance on capsule rupture. Magnetocapsules were functional in vivo because mouse beta-cells restored normal glycemia in streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice and human islets induced sustained C-peptide levels in swine. In this large-animal model, magnetocapsules could be precisely targeted for infusion by using magnetic resonance fluoroscopy, whereas MRI facilitated monitoring of liver engraftment over time. These findings are directly applicable to ongoing improvements in islet cell transplantation for human diabetes, particularly because our magnetocapsules comprise clinically applicable materials.

Time and temperature dependant changes in red blood cell analytes used for testing recombinant erythropoietin abuse in sports.

There has been a long debate since the introduction of blood analysis prior to major sports events, to find out whether blood samples should be analysed right away on the site of competition or whether they should be transported and analysed in an anti-doping laboratory. Therefore, it was necessary to measure blood samples and compare the results obtained right after the blood withdrawal with those obtained after a few hours delay. Furthermore, it was interesting to determine the effect of temperature on the possible deterioration of red blood cell analytes used for testing recombinant erythropoietin abuse. Healthy volunteers were asked to give two blood samples and one of these was kept at room temperature whereas the second one was put into a refrigerator. On a regular basis, the samples were rolled for homogenisation and temperature stabilisation and were analysed with the same haematological apparatus. The results confirmed that blood controls prior to competition should be performed as soon as possible with standardised pre-analytical conditions to avoid too many variations notably on the haematocrit and the reticulocyte count. These recommendations should ideally also be applied to the all the blood controls compulsory for the medical follow up, otherwise unexplainable values could be misinterpreted and could for instance lead to a period of incapacity.