Leprosy frequency in the world, 1999-2010

In 1991, the World Health Organization (WHO) committed to reducing the prevalence of leprosy to below 1 in 10,000 inhabitants by 2000. Significant improvements in leprosy control have occurred, but leprosy remains a public health problem in many countries due to its high incidence and rate of transmission. This paper reviews data published by the WHO in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. These data sets included 148 countries or territories that reported to the WHO at least once. Only four countries reported higher prevalence rates in 2010 than in 2000 and eight reported higher case detection rate (CDR) in 2009 than in 1999. Prevalence rate reductions were greater for the first five-year period examined, while CDR reductions were greater in the second five-year period. Thirty-six countries and territories reported at least one prevalence value higher than 1 per 10,000 inhabitants and 32 reported at least one CDR value higher than 9 per 100,000 inhabitants. A total of 39 countries fit at least one of these criteria and all were located in tropical regions.

Trends in yearly prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin and fluoroquinolone resistant Enterobacteriaceae infections and antimicrobial use in Spanish hospitals, Spain, 1999 to 2010.

Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Enterobacter spp. are a major cause of infections in hospitalised patients. The aim of our study was to evaluate rates and trends of resistance to third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones in infected patients, the trends in use for these antimicrobials, and to assess the potential correlation between both trends. The database of national point prevalence study series of infections and antimicrobial use among patients hospitalised in Spain over the period from 1999 to 2010 was analysed. On average 265 hospitals and 60,000 patients were surveyed per year yielding a total of 19,801 E. coli, 3,004 K. pneumoniae and 3,205 Enterobacter isolates. During the twelve years period, we observed significant increases for the use of fluoroquinolones (5.8%-10.2%, p<0.001), but not for third-generation cephalosporins (6.4%-5.9%, p=NS). Resistance to third-generation cephalosporins increased significantly for E. coli (5%-15%, p<0.01) and for K. pneumoniae infections (4%-21%, p<0.01) but not for Enterobacter spp. (24%). Resistance to fluoroquinolones increased significantly for E. coli (16%30%, p<0.01), for K. pneumoniae (5%-22%, p<0.01), and for Enterobacter spp. (6%-15%, p<0.01). We found strong correlations between the rate of fluoroquinolone use and the resistance to fluoroquinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, or co-resistance to both, for E. coli (R=0.97, p<0.01, R=0.94, p<0.01, and R=0.96, p<0.01, respectively), and for K. pneumoniae (R=0.92, p<0.01, R=0.91, p<0.01, and R=0.92, p<0.01, respectively). No correlation could be found between the use of third-generation cephalosporins and resistance to any of the latter antimicrobials. No significant correlations could be found for Enterobacter spp.. Knowledge of the trends in antimicrobial resistance and use of antimicrobials in the hospitalised population at the national level can help to develop prevention strategies.

The use of Mycobacterium tuberculosis HspX and GlcB proteins to identify latent tuberculosis in rheumatoid arthritis patients

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease characterised by the destruction of articular cartilage and bone damage. The chronic treatment of RA patients causes a higher susceptibility to infectious diseases such as tuberculosis (TB); one-third of the world’s population is latently infected (LTBI) with Mycobacterium tuberculosis(Mtb). The tuberculin skin test is used to identify individuals LTBI, but many studies have shown that this test is not suitable for RA patients. The goal of this work was to test the specific cellular immune responses to the Mtb malate synthase (GlcB) and heat shock protein X (HspX) antigens of RA patients and to correlate those responses with LTBI status. The T-helper (Th)1, Th17 and Treg-specific immune responses to the GlcB and HspX Mtb antigens were analysed in RA patients candidates for tumour necrosis factor-α blocker treatment. Our results demonstrated that LTBI RA patients had Th1-specific immune responses to GlcB and HspX. Patients were followed up over two years and 14.3% developed active TB. After the development of active TB, RA patients had increased numbers of Th17 and Treg cells, similar to TB patients. These results demonstrate that a GlcB and HspX antigen assay can be used as a diagnostic test to identify LTBI RA patients.

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

The remarkable journey of adaptation of the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite to New World anopheline mosquitoes

Plasmodium falciparum originated in Africa, dispersed around the world as a result of human migration and had to adapt to several different indigenous anopheline mosquitoes. Anophelines from the New World are evolutionary distant form African ones and this probably resulted in a more stringent selection of Plasmodium as it adapted to these vectors. It is thought that Plasmodium has been genetically selected by some anopheline species through unknown mechanisms. The mosquito immune system can greatly limit infection and P. falciparum evolved a strategy to evade these responses, at least in part mediated by Pfs47, a highly polymorphic gene. We propose that adaptation of P. falciparum to new vectors may require evasion of their immune system. Parasites with a Pfs47 haplotype compatible with the indigenous mosquito vector would be able to survive and be transmitted. The mosquito antiplasmodial response could be an important determinant of P. falciparum population structure and could affect malaria transmission in the Americas.

Prophylactic isolated limb perfusion for localized, high-risk limb melanoma: results of a multicenter randomized phase III trial. European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Malignant Melanoma Cooperative Group Protocol 18832, the World Health Organization Melanoma Program Trial 15, and the North American Perfusion Group Southwest Oncology Group-8593.

PURPOSE: Patients with primary cutaneous melanoma > or = 1.5 mm in thickness are at high risk of having regional micrometastases at the time of initial surgical treatment. A phase III international study was designed to evaluate whether prophylactic isolated limb perfusion (ILP) could prevent regional recurrence and influence survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 832 assessable patients from 16 centers entered the study; 412 were randomized to wide excision (WE) only and 420 to WE plus ILP with melphalan and mild hyperthermia. Median age was 50 years, 68% of patients were female, 79% of melanomas were located on a lower limb, and 47% had a thickness > or = 3 mm. RESULTS: Median follow-up duration is 6.4 years. There was a trend for a longer disease-free interval (DFI) after ILP. The difference was significant for patients who did not undergo elective lymph node dissection (ELND). The impact of ILP was clearly on the occurrence-as first site of progression - of in-transit metastases (ITM), which were reduced from 6.6% to 3.3%, and of regional lymph node (RLN) metastases, with a reduction from 16.7% to 12.6%. There was no benefit from ILP in terms of time to distant metastasis or survival. Side effects were higher after ILP, but transient in most patients. There were two amputations for limb toxicity after ILP. CONCLUSION: Prophylactic ILP with melphalan cannot be recommended as an adjunct to standard surgery in high-risk primary limb melanoma.

Characterization of SKI-1/S1P-mediated processing of Arenavirus glycoprotein precursors

Arenaviruses are rodent-born world-wide distributed negative strand RNA viruses that comprise a number of important human pathogens including Lassa virus (LASV) which causes more than 3 00'000 infections annually in Western Africa. Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) is the prototypic member of the arenavirus family, which is divided in two major subgroups according to serological properties and geographical distribution, the Old World and New World arenaviruses. The envelope glycoprotein precursors (GPCs) of arenaviruses have to undergo proteolytic processing to acquire biological function and to be incorporated into progeny virions. A cellular enzyme is responsible for this processing: the Subtilisin Kexin Isozyme-1 or Site-1 protease (SKI- 1/S1P). In this thesis we have studied the relationship between SKI-1/S1P and the envelope GPs of arenaviruses. In a first project, we investigated the molecular interactions between SKI-1/SIP and arenavirus GPCs. Using SKI-1/SIP mutants, we confirmed previously published observations locating LCMV GPC and LASV GPC processing in the Late Golgi/TGN and ER/cis-Golgi, respectively. A single mutation in the cleavage site of LCMV was sufficient to re-locate SKI- 1/SIP-mediated processing from the late Golgi/TGN to the ER/cis-Golgi. We then demonstrated that the transmembrane domain, the C-terminal tail and the phosphorylation sites of SKI-1/S1P are dispensable for GPC processing. Additionally we identified a SKI- 1/S1P mutant defective for autoprocessing at site Β, B' that was selectively impaired in processing of viral GPCs but not cellular substrates. We also showed that a soluble variant of SKI-1/SIΡ was unable to cleave envelope GPs at the cell surface when added in the culture medium. This study highlighted a new target for small molecule inhibitors that would specifically impair GPC but not cellular substrate processing. In a second project, we identified and characterized two residues: LASV GPC Y253 and SKI-1/S1P Y285 that are important for the SKI-1/SIP-mediated LASV GPC cleavage. An alignment of GPC sequences revealed a conserved aromatic residue in P7 position in the GPCs of Old World and Clade C of New World arenaviruses. Mutations in GPC at position P7 impaired processing efficiency. In SKI-1/S1P, mutating Y285 into A negatively affected processing of substrates containing aromatic residues in P7, without affecting others. This property could be used to develop specific drugs targeting SKI-1/SIP-mediated cleavage of LASV GPC without affecting cellular substrates. As a third project we studied the role of the SKI-1/SIP-mediated processing and the unusual stable signal peptide (SSP) for the folding and secretion of soluble forms of the ectodomain of LASV and LCMV glycoproteins. We provide evidence that the transmembrane domain and the cytosolic tail are crucial for the stability of the prefusion conformation of arenavirus GP and that the SSP is required for transport and processing of full-length GP, but not the soluble ectodomain per se. Taken together, these results will lead to a better understanding of the complex interactions between arenavirus GPCs and SKI-1/S IP, paving the avenue for the development of novel anti-arenaviral therapeutics. - Les Arenavirus sont des virus à ARN négatif distribués mondialement et portés par les rongeurs. Cette famille de virus comprend des virus hautement pathogènes pour l'homme comme le virus de Lassa (LASV) qui cause plus de 300Ό00 infections par année en Afrique de l'Ouest. Le virus de la chorioméningite lymphocytaire (LCMV) est le représentant de cette famille qui est divisée en deux sous-groupes selon des critères sérologiques et de distributions géographiques: arenavirus du Nouveau et de l'Ancien monde. Les glycoprotéines d'enveloppe de ces virus (GPCs) doivent être clivées pour être incorporées dans le virus et ainsi lui permettre d'être infectieux. Une enzyme cellulaire est responsable de ce clivage : la Subtilisin Kexin Isozyme-1 ou protéase Site-1 (SKI-l/SlP). Dans cette thèse, nous avons étudié la relation entre cette enzyme cellulaire et les GPs des arenavirus. Dans un premier temps, nous avons étudié les interactions moléculaires entre SKI- 1/S1P et GPC. A l'aide de mutants de SKI-l/SlP, nous avons confirmé des résultats précédemment publiés montrant que les glycoprotéines d'enveloppe de LASV sont clivés dans le réticulum endoplasmique/cis-Golgi alors que celles de LCMV sont clivées dans le Golgi tardif/TGN. Une seule mutation dans le site de clivage de la glycoprotéine de LCMV est suffisante pour changer le compartiment cellulaire dans lequel est clivée cette glycoprotéine. Ensuite, nous avons démontré que le domaine transmembranaire, la partie cytosolique C-terminale ainsi que les sites de phosphorylations de cette enzyme ne sont pas indispensables pour permettre le clivage de GPC. De plus, nous avons identifié un mutant de SKI-l/SlP dans lequel Γ autoprocessing au site B,B' est impossible, incapable de cliver GPC mais toujours pleinement fonctionnelle envers ses substrats cellulaires. Nous avons également démontré qu'une forme soluble de SKI-l/SlP ajoutée dans le milieu de culture n'est pas capable de couper GPC à la surface de la cellule. Cette étude a défini une nouvelle cible potentielle pour un médicament qui inhiberait le clivage des glycoprotéines des arenavirus sans affecter les processus normaux de la cellule. Dans un second project, nous avons identifié deux acides aminés, LASV GPC Y253 et SKI-l/SlP Y285, qui sont important pour le clivage de LASV GPC. Un alignement des séquences de clivage des GPCs a montré qu'un résidu aromatique est conservé en position P7 du site de clivage chez tous les arenavirus de l'Ancien monde et dans le clade C des arenavirus du Nouveau monde. Une mutation de cet acide aminée dans GPC réduit l'efficacité de clivage par SKI-l/SlP. Mutation de la tyrosine 285 de SKI-l/SlP en alanine affecte négativement le clivage des substrats contenant un résidu aromatique en position P7 sans affecter les autres. Cette propriété pourrait être utilisée pour le développement de médicaments spécifiques ciblant le clivage de GPC. Finalement, nous avons étudié le rôle du processing accomplit par SKI-l/SlP et du signal peptide pour le pliage et la sécrétion de formes solubles des glycoprotéines de LASV et LCMV. Nous avons montré que le domaine transmembranaire et la partie cytosolique de GP sont crucials pour la stabilité de la conformation pre-fusionnelle des GPs et que SSP est nécessaire pour le transport et le processing de GP, mais pas de son ecto-domaine soluble. En conclusion, les résultats obtenus durant cette thèse permettrons de mieux comprendre les interactions complexes entre SKI-l/SlP et les glycoprotéines des arenavirus, ouvrant le chemin pour le développement de nouveaux médicaments anti-arénaviraux.

Behavioural Flexibility: evolutionary past and its role in a changing world

A través de la historia de la vida, gran parte de los organismos han desarrollado estrategias para responder a un mundo en constante cambio. Hoy en día, las actividades humanas producen cambios ambientales a una velocidad sin precedentes, lo cual se traduce en grandes desafíos para la persistencia de biodiversidad. Esta investigación evalúa las respuesta de los animales a los cambios ambientales enfocándose en la flexibilidad del comportamiento como estrategia adaptativa. En una primera aproximación a una escala evolutiva, se otorgan evidencias del vínculo hasta ahora tenue entre la cognición e historias de vida, entregando un claro apoyo a la relación entre longevidad, vida reproductiva y el tamaño del cerebro en mamíferos. La longevidad es el centro de muchas hipótesis respecto a las ventajas de desarrollar un cerebro grande, como por ejemplo en la hipótesis del buffer cognitivo y las respuestas flexibles frente a nuevos ambientes. En un segundo nivel, se abordan factores extrínsecos e intrínsecos que podrían explicar las diferencias individuales en innovación, un componente clave en la flexibilidad del comportamiento. Por medio de una aproximación experimental, se evalúan potenciales escenarios que podrían conducir a consistentes diferencias individuales en uno de los principales factores subyacentes a la innovación (i.e. la motivación), y el potencial control endocrino sobre estos escenarios. Posteriormente, con el objetivo de evaluar la respuesta de los animales frente a los cambios ambientales actuales, se explora la respuesta de los animales frente a una de las actividades humanas mas disruptivas sobre los ecosistemas, la urbanización. Por medio de un analisis filogenetico comparativo a nivel global en aves se abordan los mecanismos implicados en la perdida de biodiversidad observada en ambientes urbanos. Los resultados entregan evidencias sobre la importancia de procesos de dispersión local junto con el papel clave de los rasgos de historia de vida, pero en un sentido diferente al clasicamente pensado. Finalmente por medio de una revisión bibliográfica se entregan evidencias teóricas y empíricas que respaldan el rol clave de la flexibilidad del comportamiento en confrontar los desafíos de una vida urbana. La integración de estos resultados muestra cómo el pasado evolutivo contribuye a hacer frente a los retos ambientales actuales, y pone de relieve posibles consecuencias ante un planeta más cambiante que nunca.

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Pre-diagnostic concordance with the WCRF/AICR guidelines and survival in European colorectal cancer patients: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND Cancer survivors are advised to follow lifestyle recommendations on diet, physical activity, and body fatness proposed by the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute of Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) for cancer prevention. Previous studies have demonstrated that higher concordance with these recommendations measured using an index score (the WCRF/AICR score) was associated with lower cancer incidence and mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between pre-diagnostic concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations and mortality in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS The association between the WCRF/AICR score (score range 0-6 in men and 0-7 in women; higher scores indicate greater concordance) assessed on average 6.4 years before diagnosis and CRC-specific (n = 872) and overall mortality (n = 1,113) was prospectively examined among 3,292 participants diagnosed with CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (mean follow-up time after diagnosis 4.2 years). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality. RESULTS The HRs (95% CIs) for CRC-specific mortality among participants in the second (score range in men/women: 2.25-2.75/3.25-3.75), third (3-3.75/4-4.75), and fourth (4-6/5-7) categories of the score were 0.87 (0.72-1.06), 0.74 (0.61-0.90), and 0.70 (0.56-0.89), respectively (P for trend <0.0001), compared to participants with the lowest concordance with the recommendations (category 1 of the score: 0-2/0-3). Similar HRs for overall mortality were observed (P for trend 0.004). Meeting the recommendations on body fatness and plant food consumption were associated with improved survival among CRC cases in mutually adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS Greater concordance with the WCRF/AICR recommendations on diet, physical activity, and body fatness prior to CRC diagnosis is associated with improved survival among CRC patients.

A Formal Framework for Specifying, Reusing and Implementing Educational Settings. Third level

Aquest fitxer conté la ontologia que descriu un metamodel de l'especificació Open Service Interface Design v.2.0 proposada per OKI. Ha estat creada en OWL i estesa amb un conjunt de regles SWRL. S'adjunta també el conjunt de regles.

Globalization and the Symphony of the New (Post-modern) World: From Westphalia to Maastricht…passing by Washington DC

Taking on the challenge of understanding and explaining the Symphony of (today’s) New World in realistic terms (not realist), this essay aims to analyse the Post-Cold war era by devising a multi-conceptual framework that combines different theoretical contributions not yet linked in a fully explanatory way. This paper suggests two inter-related analytical contexts (or background melodies) to understand Dvorak´s "New World”. First, the socio-economic structural context that falls under the controversial category of Globalization and, second, the post-modern political structural context that is built on Robert Cooper’s threefold analysis (Pre-modern, Modern and Post-modern) of today’s world [Cooper, R: 1997, 1999]. Lastly, the closing movement (allegro con fuoco) enters the normative arena to assess American foreign policy options in the light of the theoretical framework devised in the first part of the essay.

Spain in Europe 2004-2008

In March of 2004, the Observatory of European Foreign Policy published a special monograph about Spain in Europe (1996-2004) in digital format. The objective of the monograph was to analyse Spain’s foreign policy agenda and strategy during the period of José María Aznar’s presidency. As the title suggests, one of the initial suppositions of the analysis is the Europeanization of Spanish foreign activities. Is that how it was? Did Aznar’s Spain see the world and relate to it through Brussels? The publication was well received, considering the number of visits received and above all the institutions which asked to link the publication to their web pages. Among these, the EUobserver published the introduction to the piece in English titled Aznar: thinking locally, acting in Europe (described by the EUobserver as a paper of utmost importance). The fact that the elections were held three days after the tragic events of the 11th of March dramatically increased interest in Spain and the implications for Europe. This publication is the second of its type, in this case analysing the period of the Zapatero government (2004-2008). Once again the starting premise (the Europeanization of the agenda and the methods employed) has been considered by the analysts. And once again the articles collected in this publication serve to “triangulate” the analysis. Spain and Europe are two vertices (more or less distant, in essence and in form) which the authors handle in their analysis of the case (third vertex).

Role of immune escape mechanisms in Hodgkin's lymphoma development and progression: a whole new world with therapeutic implications.

Hodgkin's lymphoma represents one of the most frequent lymphoproliferative syndromes, especially in young population. Although HL is considered one of the most curable tumors, a sizeable fraction of patients recur after successful upfront treatment or, less commonly, are primarily resistant. This work tries to summarize the data on clinical, histological, pathological, and biological factors in HL, with special emphasis on the improvement of prognosis and their impact on therapeutical strategies. The recent advances in our understanding of HL biology and immunology show that infiltrated immune cells and cytokines in the tumoral microenvironment may play different functions that seem tightly related with clinical outcomes. Strategies aimed at interfering with the crosstalk between tumoral Reed-Sternberg cells and their cellular partners have been taken into account in the development of new immunotherapies that target different cell components of HL microenvironment. This new knowledge will probably translate into a change in the antineoplastic treatments in HL in the next future and hopefully will increase the curability rates of this disease.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.