SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

PARAMETRIC STUDY OF REAXFF SIMULATION PARAMETERS FOR MOLECULAR DYNAMICS MODELING OF REACTIVE CARBON GASES

Abstract The development of innovative carbon-based materials can be greatly facilitated by molecular modeling techniques. Although the Reax Force Field (ReaxFF) can be used to simulate the chemical behavior of carbon-based systems, the simulation settings required for accurate predictions have not been fully explored. Using the ReaxFF, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to simulate the chemical behavior of pure carbon and hydrocarbon reactive gases that are involved in the formation of carbon structures such as graphite, buckyballs, amorphous carbon, and carbon nanotubes. It is determined that the maximum simulation time step that can be used in MD simulations with the ReaxFF is dependent on the simulated temperature and selected parameter set, as are the predicted reaction rates. It is also determined that different carbon-based reactive gases react at different rates, and that the predicted equilibrium structures are generally the same for the different ReaxFF parameter sets, except in the case of the predicted formation of large graphitic structures with the Chenoweth parameter set under specific conditions.

Does Landscape Context Affect Habitat Value? The Importance of Seascape Ecology in Back-reef Systems

Seascape ecology provides a useful framework from which to understand the processes governing spatial variability in ecological patterns. Seascape context, or the composition and pattern of habitat surrounding a focal patch, has the potential to impact resource availability, predator-prey interactions, and connectivity with other habitats. For my dissertation research, I combined a variety of approaches to examine how habitat quality for fishes is influenced by a diverse range of seascape factors in sub-tropical, back-reef ecosystems. In the first part of my dissertation, I examined how seascape context can affect reef fish communities on an experimental array of artificial reefs created in various seascape contexts in Abaco, Bahamas. I found that the amount of seagrass at large spatial scales was an important predictor of community assembly on these reefs. Additionally, seascape context had differing effects on various aspects of habitat quality for the most common reef species, White grunt Haemulon plumierii. The amount of seagrass at large spatial scales had positive effects on fish abundance and secondary production, but not on metrics of condition and growth. The second part of my dissertation focused on how foraging conditions for fish varied across a linear seascape gradient in the Loxahatchee River estuary in Florida, USA. Gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus, traded food quality for quantity along this estuarine gradient, maintaining similar growth rates and condition among sites. Additional work focused on identifying major energy flow pathways to two consumers in oyster-reef food webs in the Loxahatchee. Algal and microphytobenthos resource pools supported most of the production to these consumers, and body size for one of the consumers mediated food web linkages with surrounding mangrove habitats. All of these studies examined a different facet of the importance of seascape context in governing ecological processes occurring in focal habitats and underscore the role of connectivity among habitats in back-reef systems. The results suggest that management approaches consider the surrounding seascape when prioritizing areas for conservation or attempting to understand the impacts of seascape change on focal habitat patches. For this reason, spatially-based management approaches are recommended to most effectively manage back-reef systems.

Environmental Dynamics of Dissolved Black Carbon in Aquatic Ecosystems

Black carbon (BC), the incomplete combustion product from biomass and fossil fuel burning, is ubiquitously found in soils, sediments, ice, water and atmosphere. Because of its polyaromatic molecular characteristic, BC is believed to contribute significantly to the global carbon budget as a slow-cycling, refractory carbon pool. However, the mass balance between global BC generation and accumulation does not match, suggesting a removal mechanism of BC to the active carbon pool, most probable in a dissolved form. The presence of BC in waters as part of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool was recently confirmed via ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry, and dissolved black carbon (DBC), a degradation product of charcoal, was found in marine and coastal environments. However, information on the loadings of DBC in freshwater environments and its global riverine flux from terrestrial systems to the oceans remained unclear. The main objectives of this study were to quantify DBC in diverse aquatic ecosystems and to determine its environmental dynamics. Surface water samples were collected from aquatic environments with a spatially significant global distribution, and DBC concentrations were determined by a chemical oxidation method coupled with HPLC detection. While it was clear that biomass burning was the main sources of BC, the translocation mechanism of BC to the dissolved phase was not well understood. Data from the regional studies and the developed global model revealed a strong positive correlation between DBC and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics, indicating a co-generation and co-translocation between soil OC and BC. In addition, a DOC-assistant DBC translocation mechanism was identified. Taking advantage of the DOC-DBC correlation model, a global riverine DBC flux to oceans on the order of 26.5 Mt C yr-1 (1 Mt = 1012 g) was determined, accounting for 10.6% of the global DOC flux. The results not only indicated that DOC was an important environmental intermediate for BC transfer and storage, but also provided an estimate of a major missing link in the global BC budget. The ever increasing DBC export caused by global warming will change the marine DOM quality and may have important consequences for carbon cycling in marine ecosystem.

Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

Numerical simulation of fresh SCC flow in wall and beam elements using flow dynamics models

Abstract : Recently, there is a great interest to study the flow characteristics of suspensions in different environmental and industrial applications, such as snow avalanches, debris flows, hydrotransport systems, and material casting processes. Regarding rheological aspects, the majority of these suspensions, such as fresh concrete, behave mostly as non-Newtonian fluids. Concrete is the most widely used construction material in the world. Due to the limitations that exist in terms of workability and formwork filling abilities of normal concrete, a new class of concrete that is able to flow under its own weight, especially through narrow gaps in the congested areas of the formwork was developed. Accordingly, self-consolidating concrete (SCC) is a novel construction material that is gaining market acceptance in various applications. Higher fluidity characteristics of SCC enable it to be used in a number of special applications, such as densely reinforced sections. However, higher flowability of SCC makes it more sensitive to segregation of coarse particles during flow (i.e., dynamic segregation) and thereafter at rest (i.e., static segregation). Dynamic segregation can increase when SCC flows over a long distance or in the presence of obstacles. Therefore, there is always a need to establish a trade-off between the flowability, passing ability, and stability properties of SCC suspensions. This should be taken into consideration to design the casting process and the mixture proportioning of SCC. This is called “workability design” of SCC. An efficient and non-expensive workability design approach consists of the prediction and optimization of the workability of the concrete mixtures for the selected construction processes, such as transportation, pumping, casting, compaction, and finishing. Indeed, the mixture proportioning of SCC should ensure the construction quality demands, such as demanded levels of flowability, passing ability, filling ability, and stability (dynamic and static). This is necessary to develop some theoretical tools to assess under what conditions the construction quality demands are satisfied. Accordingly, this thesis is dedicated to carry out analytical and numerical simulations to predict flow performance of SCC under different casting processes, such as pumping and tremie applications, or casting using buckets. The L-Box and T-Box set-ups can evaluate flow performance properties of SCC (e.g., flowability, passing ability, filling ability, shear-induced and gravitational dynamic segregation) in casting process of wall and beam elements. The specific objective of the study consists of relating numerical results of flow simulation of SCC in L-Box and T-Box test set-ups, reported in this thesis, to the flow performance properties of SCC during casting. Accordingly, the SCC is modeled as a heterogeneous material. Furthermore, an analytical model is proposed to predict flow performance of SCC in L-Box set-up using the Dam Break Theory. On the other hand, results of the numerical simulation of SCC casting in a reinforced beam are verified by experimental free surface profiles. The results of numerical simulations of SCC casting (modeled as a single homogeneous fluid), are used to determine the critical zones corresponding to the higher risks of segregation and blocking. The effects of rheological parameters, density, particle contents, distribution of reinforcing bars, and particle-bar interactions on flow performance of SCC are evaluated using CFD simulations of SCC flow in L-Box and T-box test set-ups (modeled as a heterogeneous material). Two new approaches are proposed to classify the SCC mixtures based on filling ability and performability properties, as a contribution of flowability, passing ability, and dynamic stability of SCC.

José Rodrigues Santos de Sousa Ramos (1948-2007): The diversity of dynamical systems

José Rodrigues Santos de Sousa Ramos, mathematician of great merit, passed away on January 1st, 2007, in Lisbon. He was buried in Sobral da Adiça. His death was a huge loss for the development of mathematics in Portugal. The course of time will increase the dimension of this loss. Therefore, we dedicated this theme issue on Dynamical Systems to recall his memory and underline his work. We never forget you.

Central Algarve karst system tufa-related dynamics, Portugal.

Geomorphological mapping is a powerful instrument improving the geomorphological interpretation and understanding of the processes and forms used in landscape studies, with the ability of organizing different thematic layers in the same map. The presented map provide relevant information about the different geomorphological units of the central Algarve (i.e. the Carboniferous flysch mountains; the Barrocal, with marly and karstified subunits), where a karst system is prominent. Solution karst morphologies and large dry areas are common in the elevated areas of the Barrocal, suggesting deep circulation of groundwater. These recharge areas feed the perched aquifers of the area, where discharge is controlled by the impervious lithologies (clay-rich strata of the turbidites, marls and argilites) in the valley bottoms or other leaks in dammed aquifers. In springs related to the main aquifers tufa are actively being formed and, close coupled to spring location, different tufa depositional systems develop.

Effect of trees in the soil nutrient concentration and pasture produtivity in Mediterranean silvo-pastoral systems

Silvo-pastoral are mixed systems of trees and grass, which have been proposed as a means to extend the benefits of forest to farmed land. Agro-forestry systems under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions, called montados in Portugal and dehesas in Spain, cover substantial areas in the world. These silvo-pastoral systems are the most extensive European agro-forestry system, as they cover 3.5–4.0 Mha in Spain and Portugal. Long-term studies are essential to assess the magnitude of the temporal nutrient flow dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems and to understand the response of these systems to fertilizer management. In order to implement the conservation task and recovery of resources through silvo-pastoral systems it is necessary to know and correct potential limiting factors, especially the soil factor, and this requires agronomic knowledge as well as the implmentation of the available new technologies. In this context, this task aims at a better understanding of the contribution of the two components of montado ecosystem (trees and herbaceous vegetation) on the soil nutrient and water dynamics, that allow for the interpretation of the variability of pasture dry matter yield and help the farmer in the management of tree density. Collaterally the task will evaluate and calibrate new technologies that simplify the monitoring of soil, grassland, trees and grazing animals.

Federative dynamics in the EU under the influence of EU citizenship rights in times of crisis

The federative debate has been tied to the history of the EU integration from the start. Even though the EU is a polity in formation, the comparison with the state model has limited usefulness in assessing the evolution of federative dynamics in the EU. In the context of the EU, federalism should not be regarded as a static arrangement, but rather as a process that has been unfolding despite or because of EU integration setbacks. By the same token, EU citizenship is necessarily distinct from national citizenship. Our purpose in this article is to understand the federative dynamics of the EU in relation to the emergence of a “community of rights”. We also aim to establish if, and how, the on-going crisis has triggered a change in the EU federative process as a result of the weakening/strengthening of citizenship rights.

An R package for simulating metapopulation dynamics and range expansion under environmental change

The metapopulation paradigm is central in ecology and conservation biology to understand the dynamics of spatially-structured populations in fragmented landscapes. Metapopulations are often studied using simulation modelling, and there is an increasing demand of user-friendly software tools to simulate metapopulation responses to environmental change. Here we describe the MetaLandSim R package, mwhich integrates ideas from metapopulation and graph theories to simulate the dynamics of real and virtual metapopulations. The package offers tools to (i) estimate metapopulation parameters from empirical data, (ii) to predict variation in patch occupancy over time in static and dynamic landscapes, either real or virtual, and (iii) to quantify the patterns and speed of metapopulation expansion into empty landscapes. MetaLandSim thus provides detailed information on metapopulation processes, which can be easily combined with land use and climate change scenarios to predict metapopulation dynamics and range expansion for a variety of taxa and ecological systems.

Studying the alignment of 5-cyanobiphenyl on a polydimethylsiloxane surface through Molecular Dynamics simulations

For 40 years, at the University of Bologna, a group of researchers coordinated by professor Claudio Zannoni has been studying liquid crystals by employing computational techniques. They have developed effective models of these interesting, and still far from being completely understood, systems. They were able to reproduce with simulations important features of some liquid crystal molecules, such as transition temperature. Then they focused their attention on the interactions that these molecules have with different kinds of surface, and how these interactions affect the alignment of liquid crystals. The group studied the behaviour of liquid crystals in contact with different kinds of surfaces, from silica, either amorphous and crystalline, to organic self assembled monolayers (SAMs) and even some common polymers, such as polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and polystyrene (PS). Anyway, a library of typical surfaces is still far from being complete, and a lot of work must be done to investigate the cases which have not been analyzed yet. A hole that must be filled is represented by polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), a polymer on which the interest of industry has enormously grown up in the last years, thanks to its peculiar features, allowing it to be employed in many fields of applications. It has been observed experimentally that PDMS causes 4-cyano-4’-pentylbiphenyl (well known as 5CB), one of the most common liquid crystal molecules, to align homeotropically (i.e. perpendicular) with respect to a surface made of this polymer. Even though some hypothesis have been presented to rationalize the effect, a clear explanation of this phenomenon has not been given yet. This dissertation shows the work I did during my internship in the group of professor Zannoni. The challenge that I had to tackle was to investigate, via Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations, the reasons of 5CB homeotropic alignment on a PDMS surface, as the group had previously done for other surfaces.

Simulation of photoinduced processes in organic chromophores: mapping photochemically relevant states for accurate dynamics

The simulation of ultrafast photoinduced processes is a fundamental step towards the understanding of the underlying molecular mechanism and interpretation/prediction of experimental data. Performing a computer simulation of a complex photoinduced process is only possible introducing some approximations but, in order to obtain reliable results, the need to reduce the complexity must balance with the accuracy of the model, which should include all the relevant degrees of freedom and a quantitatively correct description of the electronic states involved in the process. This work presents new computational protocols and strategies for the parameterisation of accurate models for photochemical/photophysical processes based on state-of-the-art multiconfigurational wavefunction-based methods. The required ingredients for a dynamics simulation include potential energy surfaces (PESs) as well as electronic state couplings, which must be mapped across the wide range of geometries visited during the wavepacket/trajectory propagation. The developed procedures allow to obtain solid and extended databases reducing as much as possible the computational cost, thanks to, e.g., specific tuning of the level of theory for different PES regions and/or direct calculation of only the needed components of vectorial quantities (like gradients or nonadiabatic couplings). The presented approaches were applied to three case studies (azobenzene, pyrene, visual rhodopsin), all requiring an accurate parameterisation but for different reasons. The resulting models and simulations allowed to elucidate the mechanism and time scale of the internal conversion, reproducing or even predicting new transient experiments. The general applicability of the developed protocols to systems with different peculiarities and the possibility to parameterise different types of dynamics on an equal footing (classical vs purely quantum) prove that the developed procedures are flexible enough to be tailored for each specific system, and pave the way for exact quantum dynamics with multiple degrees of freedom.

Smart Farming in Italian agriculture: essays on adoption and diffusion dynamics shaping the agricultural digital transition

Smart Farming Technologies (SFT) is a term used to define the set of digital technologies able not only to control and manage the farm system, but also to connect it to the many disruptive digital applications posed at multiple links along the value chain. The adoption of SFT has been so far limited, with significant differences at country-levels and among different types of farms and farmers. The objective of this thesis is to analyze what factors contributes to shape the agricultural digital transition and to assess its potential impacts in the Italian agri-food system. Specifically, this overall research objective is approached under three different perspectives. Firstly, we carry out a review of the literature that focuses on the determinants of adoption of farm-level Management Information Systems (MIS), namely the most adopted smart farming solutions in Italy. Secondly, we run an empirical analysis on what factors are currently shaping the adoption of SFT in Italy. In doing so, we focus on the multi-process and multi-faceted aspects of the adoption, by overcoming the one-off binary approach often used to study adoption decisions. Finally, we adopt a forward-looking perspective to investigate what the socio-ethical implications of a diffused use of SFT might be. On the one hand, our results indicate that bigger, more structured farms with higher levels of commercial integration along the agri-food supply chain are those more likely to be early adopters. On the other hand, they highlight the need for the institutional and organizational environment around farms to more effectively support farmers in the digital transition. Moreover, the role of several other actors and actions are discussed and analyzed, by highlighting the key role of specific agri-food stakeholders and ad-hoc policies, with the aim to propose a clearer path towards an efficient, fair and inclusive digitalization of the agrifood sector.

About stabilization of non-minimum phase systems by output feedback

This thesis work has been motivated by an internal benchmark dealing with the output regulation problem of a nonlinear non-minimum phase system in the case of full-state feedback. The system under consideration structurally suffers from finite escape time, and this condition makes the output regulation problem very hard even for very simple steady-state evolution or exosystem dynamics, such as a simple integrator. This situation leads to studying the approaches developed for controlling Non-minimum phase systems and how they affect feedback performances. Despite a lot of frequency domain results, only a few works have been proposed for describing the performance limitations in a state space system representation. In particular, in our opinion, the most relevant research thread exploits the so-called Inner-Outer Decomposition. Such decomposition allows splitting the Non-minimum phase system under consideration into a cascade of two subsystems: a minimum phase system (the outer) that contains all poles of the original system and an all-pass Non-minimum phase system (the inner) that contains all the unavoidable pathologies of the unstable zero dynamics. Such a cascade decomposition was inspiring to start working on functional observers for linear and nonlinear systems. In particular, the idea of a functional observer is to exploit only the measured signals from the system to asymptotically reconstruct a certain function of the system states, without necessarily reconstructing the whole state vector. The feature of asymptotically reconstructing a certain state functional plays an important role in the design of a feedback controller able to stabilize the Non-minimum phase system.