Risk management of new product development process

Dissertation submitted to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa for the achievement of Integrated Master´s degree in Industrial Management Engineering

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Antibody response to heat-inactivated hepatitis B vaccine (CLB-3mg) in hemodialysis patients and occupational risk personnel: a one year follow-up

Immune response against hepatitis B vaccine (CLB 3mg) was evaluated in 59 hemodialysis patients and 20 occupational risk personnel. Seroconversion was induced in 52.5% and 70.0% respectively. Twelve months after the first dose, 37.5% of patients and 60.0% of occupational risk personnel had detectable anti-HBs level. Antibody level was expressed in sample ratio units (SRU). Considering only the responders, in the patients group 38.7% had a low anti-HBs response (2.1-9.9 SRU) 32.3% a medium response (10-99.9 SRU) and 29.0% a high response (>100 SRU) while in occupational risk personnel these values were 14.3%, 64.3% and 21.4% respectively. The authors suggest the use of HBV vaccines with more elevated HBsAg concentration or a reinforced immunization schedule to improve the anti-HBs response not only for patients but also for healthy persons.

Application of a control banding tool for risk level assessment and control of nanoparticles exposure in welding operations

Scope of study: welding operations result in harmful emissions of nanoparticles; the aim of emissions monitorisation is to evaluate exposure levels and to derive protection measures in order to protect exposed workers; however, the traditional approach of comparing measured concentrations with exposure limits cannot be used; but risk levels can be quantified by using Control Banding Strategies.

Occupational and domiciliary contact with dogs as factors of risk to human infection with Toxocara larvae

The contact with dogs at home or place of work has been investigated as factors of risk in the occurrence of the visceral larva migrans syndrome caused by Toxocara, in man. Through the E.L.I.S.A. (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) technique, the presence of antibodies to Toxocara was searched in the sera of 79 women who have been raising or had raised dogs at home in the last two years and 123 men, who were municipal public employees in charge of the capture and keeping of stray dogs. The control groups were constituted by 205 sera from women who denied domiciliary contact with dogs, at least in the last two years, and 139 sera from men whose occupation did not urge them to contact with dogs. A significant more elevated frequency of antibodies to Toxocara was observed among women with domiciliary contact with dogs; nevertheless, there was not a significant difference in the positive rates in the case of men with occupational contact with dogs.

Assessment of direct radiological risk and indirect associated toxic risks originated by Coal-Fired Power Plants

Over the past few decades there has been some discussion concerning the increase of the natural background radiation originated by coal-fired power plants, due to the uranium and thorium content present in combustion ashes. The radioactive decay products of uranium and thorium, such as radium, radon, polonium, bismuth and lead, are also released in addition to a significant amount of 40K. Since the measurement of radioactive elements released by the gaseous emissions of coal power plants is not compulsory, there is a gap of information concerning this situation. Consequently, the prediction of dispersion and mobility of these elements in the environment, after their release, is based on limited data and the radiological impact from the exposure to these radioactive elements is unknown. This paper describes the methodology that is being developed to assess the radiological impact due to the raise in the natural background radiation level originated by the release and dispersion of the emitted radionuclides. The current investigation is part of a research project that is undergoing in the vicinity of Sines coal-fired power plant (south of Portugal) until 2013. Data from preliminary stages are already available and possible of interpretation.

Long-run consumption risk with durable goods : UK evidence for equity and bond markets

"It is a widely accepted fact that the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) fails to provide a good explanation of many important features of the behaviour of financial market returns in a large range of countries over a long period of time. However, within a representative consumer/investor model, it is hard to see how the basic structure of the consumption based model can be safely abandoned." [introdução]

Education for health: alcohol and young aged school teenagers

Introduction: Alcohol consumption starts at an early age in Portuguese people. Health problems and risk behavior associated with excessive consumption can be prevented or highly reduced through effective school programs. Health professionals, such as biomedical scientists, (BSc), are important in promoting healthy lifestyles through the transmission of knowledge. Objective: Explore the role of the BSc in promoting health via intervention and clarification actions, (ICA), with 9th grade students from Agrupamento de Escolas da Portela e Moscavide (AEPM) and Visconde Juromenha (AEVJ); Verify the relationship between participating in the ICA and the level of knowledge acquired from it. Methods: Behaviors and beliefs concerning alcohol consumption and knowledge about the repercussions of it in the human body, mainly regarding the liver, were assessed by questionnaire. The questionnaire was completed before and after the ICA, by the control group (CG) and the study group (SG), respectively. The answers concerning knowledge were given points, later converted to a score from 0 to 100%. Data was analyzed applying descriptive statistics and the t-student test using SPSS 20.0. Results: After statistical analysis, it was found an average score of 48.8% for SG and 46.2% for CG. The difference between groups was statistically significant only in AEPM where ICA included a practical methodology (microscopic and macroscopic observation of pork livers), contrary to AEVJ. Conclusions: BSc intervention through ICA’s improves teenagers’ knowledge. Theoretical knowledge associated with practical approaches improves the retention of information and the development of a conscious behavior about the consumption of alcohol.

Estudo comparativo de linguagem e dos comportamentos interativos pais- filhos aos 15 meses de vida

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Intervenção Precoce

Occupational risk in a glass manufacturing industry unit

Risk assessment is one of the main pillars of the framework directive and other directives in respect of health and safety. It is also the basis of an effective management of safety and health as it is essential to reduce work-related accidents and occupational diseases. To survey the hazards eventually present in the workplaces the usual procedures are i) gathering information about tasks/activities, employees, equipment, legislation and standards; ii) observation of the tasks and; iii) quantification of respective risks through the most adequate risk assessment among the methodologies available. From this preliminary evaluation of a welding plant and, from the different measurable parameters, noise was considered the most critical. This paper focus not only the usual way of risk assessment for noise but also another approach that may allow us to identify the technique with which a weld is being performed.

Naturally occurring radioactive materials: a method for assessing the risk of exposure

Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) are materials that are found naturally in the environment and contain radioactive isotopes that can cause negative effects on the health of workers who manipulate them. Present in underground work like mining and tunnel construction in granite zones, these materials are difficult to identify and characterize without appropriate equipment for risk evaluation. The assessing methods were exemplified with a case study applied to the handling and processing of phosphoric rock where one found significant amounts of radioactive isotopes and consequently elevated radon concentrations in enclosed spaces containing these materials. © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Exposure to acellular blood products and risk of HIV infection in hemophiliacs from Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Results of a HIV prevalence study conducted in hemophiliacs from Belo Horizonte, Brazil are presented. History of exposure to acellular blood components was determined for the five year period prior to entry in the study, which occurred during 1986 and 1987. Patients with coagulations disorders (hemophilia A = 132, hemophilia B = 16 and coagulation disorders other than hemophilia = 16) were transfused with liquid cryoprecipitate, locally produced, lyophilized cryoprecipitate, imported from São Paulo (Brazil) and factor VIII and IX, imported from Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), Europe, and United States. Thirty six (22%) tested HIV seropositive. The univariate and multivariate analysis (logistic model) demonstrated that the risk of HIV infection during the study period was associated with the total units of acellular blood components transfused. In addition, the proportional contribution of the individual components to the total acellular units transfused, namely a increase in factor VIII/IX and lyophilized cryoprecipitate proportions, were found to be associated with HIV seropositivity. This analysis suggest that not only the total amount of units was an important determinant of HIV infection, but that the risk was also associated with the specific component of blood transfused

Possible risk factors for vertical transmission of Chagas' disease

The author emphasizes the importance of the congenital transmission of Chagas' disease and discusses the possible risk factors for transmission such as age, origin, obstetrical history and maternal form of disease. Exacerbation of infection during pregnancy is also considered as a possible risk factor for transmission. Besides, a relationship between the frequency of transmission and gestational age is presented. Concerning breast-feeding, the risk of transmission is directly related to the acute phase of maternal disease and bleeding nipples. The deleterious effects of chagasic infection on the fetus and newborn are also considered.